‌罗德里格斯岛东北强热带气旋第3号“贝基”(02S.Bheki) - 风眼构建，西南行进，趋向毛里求斯 - MFR:105KT JTWC:115KT

933954

实时云图

---

编扰资讯

95S INVEST 241111 1200 9.3S 80.9E SHEM 15 1006

ygsj24

ABIO10 PGTW 111800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/111800Z-
121800ZNOV2024//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.0S
79.6E, APPROXIMATELY 505 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 111229Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICT A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH
BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW
(LESS THAN 15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95S WILL TRACK
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 36-48
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 121324
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/3/20242025
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 3

2.A POSITION 2024/11/12 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.8 S / 77.5 E
(NINE    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/1.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1004 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/11/13 00 UTC: 10.3 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE

24H: 2024/11/13 12 UTC: 10.4 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SW: 220 NW: 95

36H: 2024/11/14 00 UTC: 10.5 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 215 SW: 220 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SW: 140 NW: 75

48H: 2024/11/14 12 UTC: 10.7 S / 73.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 230 SW: 220 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 75

60H: 2024/11/15 00 UTC: 11.0 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 75

72H: 2024/11/15 12 UTC: 11.5 S / 72.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 85

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/11/16 12 UTC: 13.4 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 325 SW: 220 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 85

120H: 2024/11/17 12 UTC: 14.2 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 370 SW: 220 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 95

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=1.5

A LOW-PRESSURE CIRCULATION FORMED AT THE END OF LAST WEEK TO THE EAST
OF DIEGO-GARCIA. CONVECTION BECAME PROGRESSIVELY MORE ORGANIZED ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND, ABOVE ALL, MORE PERSISTENT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
IN THE VICINITY OF A CENTER WHICH, ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERY, IS
STILL RELATIVELY ELONGATED. AN INITIAL DVORAK CLASSIFICATION OF 1.5
CAN THUS BE ESTABLISHED AS OF THIS TUESDAY NOVEMBER 12 AT 12UTC.

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAINTAINED NEAR THE
CENTER, WITH AN ACCENTUATION OF THE CURVATURE. INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED
AT 20 KT USING THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK TECHNIQUE.

THE SYSTEM'S TRACK IS FORECAST TO BE WEST-SOUTH-WEST ALONG THE EDGE
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE SOUTH AT 700 HPA. AS THE
SYSTEM INTENSIFIES, THE STEERING FLOW AT 500 HPA WILL TAKE OVER,
PLACING THE SYSTEM IN A BAROMETRIC NECK, WHICH EXPLAINS THE SYSTEM'S
SHARP SLOWDOWN AND SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN TERMS OF TRAJECTORY
BEYOND THURSDAY.

THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS ON THE RISE THIS TUESDAY EVENING IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONTEXT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS: REDUCED DEEP
SHEAR, HIGH OCEANIC POTENTIAL FOR THE SEASON AND STRENGTHENED
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE, PARTICULARLY ON THE EQUATORIAL SIDE. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO INTENSIFICATION INTO A TROPICAL STORM BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY MORNING. IN THE LONGER TERM, THE
TENDENCY IS FOR THE INTENSITY TO STAGNATE IN CONDITIONS THAT ARE
LIKELY TO BE MORE SEVERE.

IN THE LONGER TERM, THE TENDENCY IS FOR INTENSITY TO STAGNATE UNDER
MIXED ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH MODEL DISPERSION IS STRONG.

OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS, THE SYSTEM POSES NO THREAT TO INHABITED LAND.=

ygsj24

ABIO10 PGTW 121400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/121400Z-121800ZNOV2024//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
9.0S 79.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4S 76.8E, APPROXIMATELY 320 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC),
WHILE A 120957Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE
BANDING WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION STARTING TO FORM INTO CURVED
BANDS NEAR THE LLCC AND WHAT APPEARS TO BE A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE
37GHZ BAND REVEALS THAT THIS IS NOT A FALSE MICROWAVE EYE. LATER MSI AND
EIR IMAGERY HOWEVER SUGGESTS THIS FEATURE MAY BE SHORT-LIVED, AS THE
CONVECTION IS ALREADY STARTING TO FADE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT 95S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO LOW
TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, AND GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95S WILL TRACK IN A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
DIRECTION AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY CONSOLIDATE AND STRENGTHEN OVER
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AS WELL.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO MEDIUM.//
NNNN

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 121845
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/3/20242025
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 3

2.A POSITION 2024/11/12 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.6 S / 76.3 E
(NINE    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/11/13 06 UTC: 10.0 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 220 NW: 95

24H: 2024/11/13 18 UTC: 10.4 S / 74.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SW: 220 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SW: 140 NW: 65

36H: 2024/11/14 06 UTC: 10.8 S / 74.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 215 SW: 220 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SW: 140 NW: 75

48H: 2024/11/14 18 UTC: 11.6 S / 74.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 230 SW: 220 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 75

60H: 2024/11/15 06 UTC: 12.8 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 75

72H: 2024/11/15 18 UTC: 13.9 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 85

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/11/16 18 UTC: 15.2 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 325 SW: 220 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

120H: 2024/11/17 18 UTC: 15.4 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 370 SW: 220 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.0-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE SYSTEM'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO
IMPROVE SLIGHTLY, WITH BETTER CURVATURE AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR
THE CENTER ORGANIZED IN A SHORT CURVED BAND. A 1633Z ASCAT PASS
ENABLES TO LOCATE THE CENTER A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS
ESTIMATES AND SHOWS WINDS UP TO 25KT. THE WIND STRUCTURE IS STILL
FAIRLY BROAD BUT HAS BECOME A BIT MORE SYMMETRICAL. THESE INDICATIONS
LEAD US TO CLASSIFY THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE.

THE SYSTEM'S TRACK IS CURRENTLY HEADING WEST-SOUTH-WEST ALONG THE
EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNTIL THURSDAY AS A TROUGH PASSES FAR TO THE SOUTH,
PLACING THE SYSTEM IN A BAROMETRIC COL, WHICH SHOULD MAKE IT SLOW
DOWN AND TURN SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST. THE SYSTEM'S MOVEMENT SHOULD THEN
ACCELERATE AGAIN AT THE END OF THE WEEK WHILE GRADUALLY SHIFTING MORE
WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARDS AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS AGAIN TO THE
SOUTH. MODEL DISPERSION IS VERY HIGH, LEADING TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY
ABOUT THE TRACK FORECAST BEYOND THURSDAY.

THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY SHOULD INCREASE AT A SLOW PACE UNTIL WEDNESDAY
MORNING, DUE TO MODERATE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR. BUT AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER SOUTH, SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY
AND THE FOLLOWING NIGHT. WITH HIGH OCEANIC POTENTIAL, GOOD LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE, AND EXCELLENT UPPER DIVERGENCE, THIS SHOULD ENABLE
INTENSIFICATION UP TO TROPICAL STORM STAGE BETWEEN WEDNESDAY EVENING
AND THURSDAY MORNING. FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS, UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
SHARPLY. A TEMPORARY SHEAR STRESS COULD MORE OR LESS CAP INTENSITY
AROUND FRIDAY, BUT THE ACCELERATION OF MOVEMENT IN THE DIRECTION OF
THE SHEAR COULD ALSO ALLOW INTENSIFICATION TO CONTINUE OR RESUME,
PARTICULARLY FROM SATURDAY ONWARDS. THE PRESENT FORECAST SUGGESTS
INTENSIFICATION UP TO SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS, THE SYSTEM POSES NO THREAT TO INHABITED LANDS.=

renzhetegong

昨日晚间ASCAT扫描成功扫到中心

pocketbox

WTIO30 FMEE 130034
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/3/20242025
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 3

2.A POSITION 2024/11/13 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.7 S / 75.8 E
(NINE    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/11/13 12 UTC: 9.8 S / 75.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2024/11/14 00 UTC: 10.2 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 0 NW: 0

36H: 2024/11/14 12 UTC: 11.1 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 0

48H: 2024/11/15 00 UTC: 12.2 S / 74.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 85

60H: 2024/11/15 12 UTC: 13.3 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 240 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 75

72H: 2024/11/16 00 UTC: 14.3 S / 72.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SW: 205 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 120 SW: 95 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/11/17 00 UTC: 15.5 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 185 SW: 195 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 0

120H: 2024/11/18 00 UTC: 16.0 S / 66.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 205 SW: 230 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SW: 50 NW: 50
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS KEPT SOME STRONG CONVECTIVE
BURSTS NEAR AND AROUND THE CENTER, ESPECIALLY IN ITS SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANT WHERE IT STILL DISPLAYS A SHORT CURVED BAND PATTERN. A 2233Z
SSMIS-F18 MICROWAVE IMAGE SUGGESTS A SLIGHTLY IMPROVING STRUCTURE.
THE SYSTEM'S CIRCULATION REMAINS QUITE BROAD FOR THE MOMENT.
INTENSITY IS STILL ESTIMATED NEAR 25 KT.

THE SYSTEM'S MOVEMENT IS CURRENTLY SLOWING DOWN AND COULD BECOME
QUASI-STATIONNARY THIS WEDNESDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENS. A
SOUTHWARD OR SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT SHOULD RESUME FROM
THURSDAY, ACCELERATING FRIDAY, WITH A STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE SOUTH-EAST THEN SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. MODEL DISPERSION IS VERY
HIGH, MEANING HIGH UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TRACK FORECAST FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK.

INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BE SLOW TODAY DUE TO MODERATE
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR, BUT THIS WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WITH HIGH OCEANIC POTENTIAL,
GOOD LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE, AND EXCELLENT UPPER DIVERGENCE, THIS
SHOULD ENABLE INTENSIFICATION UP TO TROPICAL STORM STAGE BY THURSDAY
MORNING. FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS, UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SHARPLY. ALTHOUGH
A TEMPORARY SHEAR STRESS COULD MORE OR LESS CAP INTENSITY AT TIMES,
THE ACCELERATION OF MOVEMENT IN THE DIRECTION OF THE SHEAR COULD ALSO
ALLOW FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. THE PRESENT FORECAST SUGGESTS
INTENSIFICATION UP TO SEVERE TROPICAL STORM THEN TROPICAL CYCLONE
STAGE AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS, THE SYSTEM POSES NO THREAT TO INHABITED LANDS.=

pocketbox

WTIO30 FMEE 130717
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/3/20242025
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 3

2.A POSITION 2024/11/13 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.7 S / 76.2 E
(NINE    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/11/13 18 UTC: 10.7 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2024/11/14 06 UTC: 11.2 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 0

36H: 2024/11/14 18 UTC: 11.5 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 85 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 65

48H: 2024/11/15 06 UTC: 12.2 S / 74.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 75

60H: 2024/11/15 18 UTC: 13.1 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SW: 175 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 85

72H: 2024/11/16 06 UTC: 14.0 S / 71.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SW: 215 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/11/17 06 UTC: 14.8 S / 68.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 185 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 110 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

120H: 2024/11/18 06 UTC: 15.3 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SW: 50 NW: 50

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.0

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A STRONG CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ON THE EDGE OF THE CENTER, PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT, POORLY ORGANIZED IN THE FORM OF A WEAK CURVED BAND. THE
ASCAT-B PASS AT 0338Z SHOWS A CIRCULATION THAT IS STILL VERY
ELONGATED, ESTIMATING MAXIMUM WINDS AT 25 KT.

THE SYSTEM'S TRACK IS CURRENTLY QUASI-STATIONARY, WITH A SLIGHT
SOUTHWARD DRIFT THIS WEDNESDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENS.
MOVEMENT SHOULD RESUME SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTWARD ON THURSDAY,
ACCELERATING ONWARDS, HELPED BY THE STRENGTHENING OF THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH. THE DISPERSION
BETWEEN MODELS REMAINS SIGNIFICANT, ILLUSTRATING A HIGH DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TRACK FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE SYSTEM INTENSIFICATION SHOULD STAGNATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
DUE TO A STILL MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND A STILL BROAD
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THIS SHEAR WILL EASE ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
THURSDAY MORNING. WITH HIGH OCEANIC POTENTIAL, GOOD LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND EXCELLENT UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE, THIS SHOULD ENABLE
TROPICAL STORM INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FROM FRIDAY
ONWARDS, UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SHARPLY. ALTHOUGH SOME TRANSIENT SHEAR
COULD TEMPORARILY CAP INTENSITY, THE ACCELERATION IN THE DIRECTION OF
THE SHEAR COULD, ON THE CONTRARY, MAINTAIN A FAVORABLE CONTEXT FOR
STRENGTHENING. THE PRESENT FORECAST SUGGESTS AN INTENSIFICATION TO
THE STAGE OF A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM OR EVEN A TROPICAL CYCLONE AT
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS, THE SYSTEM POSES NO THREAT TO INHABITED LAND.=

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 131242
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/3/20242025
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 3

2.A POSITION 2024/11/13 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.3 S / 76.0 E
(TEN    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/11/14 00 UTC: 11.0 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 110 NW: 0

24H: 2024/11/14 12 UTC: 11.4 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 0 NW: 0

36H: 2024/11/15 00 UTC: 12.1 S / 74.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 215 SW: 215 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 85

48H: 2024/11/15 12 UTC: 13.2 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 220 SW: 350 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 120 SW: 215 NW: 65

60H: 2024/11/16 00 UTC: 13.7 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SW: 380 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 175 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 35

72H: 2024/11/16 12 UTC: 14.7 S / 71.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 260 SW: 325 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/11/17 12 UTC: 15.6 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 175 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35

120H: 2024/11/18 12 UTC: 16.4 S / 66.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 185 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 60 NW: 50
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 40 SW: 50 NW: 40

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.0

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A STRONG CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ON THE EDGE OF THE CENTER, PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT, POORLY ORGANIZED IN THE FORM OF A WEAK CURVED BAND. THE
SSMIS F18 IMAGE FROM 1130Z SHOWS A CIRCULATION THAT IS STILL WIDE AND
POORLY ORGANIZED. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE STILL ESTIMATED AT 25 KT USING
THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK METHOD.

THE SYSTEM TOOK A SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTERLY TRACK THIS WENESDAY WITH A
FAIRLY SLOW SPEED OF 4 KT. FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS, IT SHOULD ACCELERATE,
HELPED BY THE STRENGTHENING OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH. THE DISPERSION BETWEEN MODELS REMAINS
SIGNIFICANT, ILLUSTRATING A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY OVER THE TRACK
FOR THE WEEKEND.

THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT, WITH WEAK
EAST-NORTHEAST DEEP SHEAR. WITH HIGH OCEAN POTENTIAL, GOOD LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND EXCELLENT UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE, IT SHOULD REACH
TROPICAL STORM STATUS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS,
UNCERTAINTY RISES SHARPLY. ALTOUGH SOME TRANSIENT SHEAR COULD
TEMPORARILY CAP INTENSITY, THE ACCELERATION IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
SHEAR COULD, ON THE CONTRARY, MAINTAIN A FAVORABLE CONTEXT FOR
STRENGTHENING. THE PRESENT FORECAST SUGGESTS AN INTENSIFICATION TO
THE STAGE OF A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM ON SATURDAY, THEN OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE ON SUNDAY, BEFORE LEVELLING OFF AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS, THE SYSTEM POSES NO THREAT TO INHABITED LAND.=

renzhetegong

白天ASCAT扫到狭长中心