马达加斯加以东中等热带风暴第7号“法伊达”(11S.Faida) - 强风切阻发展

理可的呆萌呆毛

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编扰资讯

93S INVEST 250123 1800 11.0S 81.1E SHEM 15 1005

Leonardo

ECMWF 2025/1/23 18Z系集，支持发展

ygsj24

ABIO10 PGTW 250030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/250030Z-251800ZJAN2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 20.1S
38.8E, APPROXIMATELY 225 NM EAST OF BEIRA, MOZAMBIQUE. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 241313Z SSMIS 91GHZ SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICT AN AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION, WITH A POORLY ORGANIZED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT
INVEST 92S IS IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C), WEAK POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (10-15 KTS). GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE THAT INVEST 92S WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO ASSEMBLE OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.2S
80.5EE, APPROXIMATELY 539 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 241231Z SSMIS 91GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE
DEPICT A BROAD AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION, WITH FRAGMENTED CONVECTION
BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT INVEST 93S IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, WEAK POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT, OFFSET BY A SHARP GRADIENT OF HIGH (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93S WILL
GENERALLY CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(2).//
NNNN

Leonardo

TPXS11 PGTW 250005

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93S (SE OF DIEGO GARCIA)

B. 24/2330Z

C. 10.97S

D. 80.56E

E. FIVE/MET9

F. T1.0/1.0  STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD LINES LOCATED
WITHIN 75NM OF COLD OVERCAST YIELD A DT OF 1.0. MET/PT AGREES. DBO
DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   DESSINO

Leonardo

TXXS29 KNES 242355
TCSSIO

A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93S)

B.  24/2330Z

C.  11.0S

D.  80.8E

E.  FIVE/MET-9

F.  T1.5/1.5

G.  IR/EIR/SWIR

H.  REMARKS...SPIRAL, LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD LINES AND A CENTER LESS THAN
1.25 DEGREES TO THE NORTH OF A LARGE COLD OVERCAST RESULTS IN A DT OF
1.5 USING THE SHEAR PATTERN. THE PT IS ALSO 1.5. THE MET IS 1.0. THE FT
IS BASED ON THE PT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE CENTER LOCATION.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    NIL


...TURK

=

Leonardo

Leonardo

TPXS11 PGTW 251524

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93S (SE OF DIEGO GARCIA)

B. 25/1430Z

C. 11.29S

D. 81.34E

E. FIVE/MET9

F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/18HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES WITH COLD OVERCAST GREATER THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELD A DT OF
1.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   SWANSON

Leonardo

TXXS29 KNES 251250
TCSSIO

A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93S)

B.  25/1130Z

C.  11.0S

D.  80.8E

E.  THREE/MET-9

F.  T1.5/1.5

G.  IR/EIR/VIS

H.  REMARKS...CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES AND A CENTER LOCATED LESS
THAN 1.25 DEGREE FROM THE LARGE COLD CONVECTION RESULTS IN A DT OF
2.0. THE MET IS 1.5. THE PT IS ALSO 1.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE MET DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE EXACT CENTER LOCATION.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    NIL


...BERTALAN

=

Leonardo

ygsj24

ABIO10 PGTW 260700
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/260700Z-261800ZJAN2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
11.2S 80.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.1S 78.7E, APPROXIMATELY 464 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS AN ELONGATED AREA OF ROTATION, WITH MULTIPLE AREAS OF
VORTICITY ON THE FRINGES. THE PRIMARY LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) AND ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION LIES IN THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE EAST-WEST ORIENTED TROF. A 260107Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO DEPICTS FRAGMENTED AND ELONGATED BANDS OF
CONVECTION FLOWING AROUND THE ASSESSED LLCC, PRIMARILY TO THE
SOUTHEAST. ALSO, A PARTIAL METOP-C ASCAT SCATTEROMETRY PASS REVEALS A
WIND FIELD OF 20-25 KNOTS TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST, WITH AREAS OF
INCREASED 25-30 KNOT WINDS BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE LLCC.
ADDITIONALLY, SEVERAL SHIP OBSERVATIONS TO THE NORTH OF THE
CIRCULATION ARE REPORTING WESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 25-30 KNOTS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 93S IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, LOW (LESS THAN 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND GOOD
EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION OF INVEST 93S OVER THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS WESTWARD. THE ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MODELS
ARE IN SOME AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
19.7S 40.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.6S 41.0E, APPROXIMATELY 364 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BEIRA, MOZAMBIQUE. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 251326Z SSMIS 91GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD AREA
OF FLARING CONVECTION, WITH AN ASYMMETRIC LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT INVEST 93S IS IN A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, WITH GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
OFFSET BY HIGH (25-30KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93S WILL GENERALLY MAINTAIN THE SAME
TRAJECTORY, TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO
MEDIUM.//
NNNN