南半球各类图像自动更新暨非扰动云团专帖（2024年7月－2025年6月）

理可的呆萌呆毛

1、为了方便管理和页面整洁，台风论坛继续坚持一扰动一追击帖的老规矩，在南半球无扰动下请在本帖跟帖讨论。违者：合并或删除。
2、当NRL升格扰动后，会员可重新开新的追击。
3、因EC网站更新，本帖无法提供即时更新的EC预报产品，请前往各数值产品服务网站查询。
4、南半球各海域监管机构
【MFR】http://www.meteofrance.re/cyclone/activite-cyclonique-en-cours
法国气象局MFR主管90E以西的南印度洋。
【BoM】http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/
澳大利亚气象局BoM主管澳洲附近海域。
【FMS】https://www.met.gov.fj/
斐济气象局FMS主管西南太平洋大部。
【MetService】https://www.metservice.com/national
新西兰气象局MetService主管部分南太平洋海域。

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各范围红外光卫星云图：
印度洋


太平洋

涡度图

红豆棒冰冰

MFR昨晚热带天气讨论表示8月中旬（5天后）不排除有气旋生成的可能性

The South-Western Indian Ocean basin is currently in a winter pattern, with trade winds crossing
the equator from south to north.
By mid-August (more than 5 days away), with the arrival of the MJO's active phase and Kelvin and
Equatorial Rossby waves, a westerly wind burst should develop along the equator. This could
temporarily favor the development of a Near Equatorial Trough over the center of the basin. Within
this trough, with convective activity continuing, cyclogenesis cannot be ruled out.
Currently, the development of a moderate tropical storm is not expected for the next 5 days.

红豆棒冰冰

GFS近几报持续认为8月中旬南印度洋中部有热带气旋生成

红豆棒冰冰

红豆棒冰冰 发表于 2024-8-11 17:03
GFS近几报持续认为8月中旬南印度洋中部有热带气旋生成

ECMWF近几报同样对此系统有所反应

红豆棒冰冰

GFS 06Z继续预报8月中旬南印度洋中部有热带系统发展

红豆棒冰冰

ECMWF 06Z系集继续对南印度洋中部有所反应

红豆棒冰冰

The western part of the basin remains in a winter configuration. However, east of 70E, a
Near-Equatorial Trough (NET) pattern has begun to form this Sunday August 11th, with a NET axis
between 1 and 4S. Convective activity in the vicinity of this NET has risen compared with previous
days.
This pattern change was triggered by the onset of a large-scale equatorial westerly wind burst
driven by the passage of a Kelvin wave over the basin in recent days. Vorticity and moisture
convergence within the NET should be further reinforced over the next few days by the additional
contribution of an Equatorial Rossby wave and by the installation of the active phase of the MJO
over the Indian Ocean this mid-August, thus providing an atmospheric background which is
unusually conducive for the heart of the south-hemispheric cool season. A new Kelvin wave is also
set to reinforce convergence next weekend. Moreover, ocean heat content north of 10S is
unseasonably high, with SSTs close to 29C around 5S/75E and 27C around 10S.
Numerical models thus suggest the formation of a closed low-pressure circulation early in the week
near 5S/75E, which could more or less develop over the following days as it moves close to the
Chagos Archipelago. This development could, however, be hampered by the presence of moderate
northeasterly shear or sub-optimal low-level convergence. Some deterministic models, in particular
GFS, have been simulating the formation of a tropical storm at the end of the week for several runs
now. The deterministic IFS remains less reactive, but the GEFS and EPS ensembles have an
increasingly high number of members forming a tropical storm by next weekend, illustrating
increasing cyclogenesis potential.
For the next 5 days, there is a low risk of tropical storm development near the Chagos
archipelago from Friday August 16th onwards.
Beyond the next 5 days, this risk could increase and become moderate during the weekend of
August 17-18th.

红豆棒冰冰

GFS 12Z及18Z继续预报8月中旬南印度洋中部有热带系统发展

红豆棒冰冰

ECMWF 12Z及18Z系集继续对南印度洋中部有所反应

红豆棒冰冰

GFS 00Z继续预报8月中旬南印度洋中部有热带系统发展