波多黎各东北94L - 16.1N 42.6W - NHC:10%

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 131754
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Oct 13 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
Shower and thunderstorm activity remains limited with a well-defined
area of low pressure located several hundred miles west of the Cabo
Verde Islands. This system is currently embedded in an unfavorable
environment and development is not anticipated over the next couple
of days. However, this system is forecast to move generally westward
to west-southwestward, and environmental conditions could become
more favorable for additional development by the mid to latter part
of this week. A tropical depression could form as the system begins
moving west-northwestward and approaches or moves near the Leeward
Islands by the end of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Konarik

ygsj24

603
ABNT20 KNHC 141137
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Oct 14 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
A well-defined area of low pressure located several hundred miles
west of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing some disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. This system is currently embedded in a
dry environment, and development is unlikely over the next couple of
days. However, this system is forecast to move generally westward
toward warmer waters, and environmental conditions could become more
favorable for gradual development by the middle to latter part of
this week. A tropical depression could form as the system begins
moving west-northwestward and approaches or moves near the Leeward
Islands late this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

renzhetegong

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
A well-defined area of low pressure located roughly midway between
the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles is producing limited
shower and thunderstorm activity. This system is currently embedded
in a dry air environment, and development is unlikely over the next
couple of days. However, this system is forecast to move generally
westward toward warmer waters, and environmental conditions could
become more favorable for gradual development by the middle to
latter part of this week. A tropical depression could form as the
system begins moving west-northwestward and approaches or moves near
the Leeward Islands late this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 151151
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Oct 15 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
An area of low pressure located over the central tropical Atlantic
is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is
forecast to move generally westward, and environmental conditions
could become more conducive for gradual development by the middle
to latter part of this week. A tropical depression could form as
the system begins moving west-northwestward and approaches or moves
near the Leeward Islands late this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Western Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure could develop over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea by the middle to latter portions of this week. Some
gradual development is possible thereafter if the system stays over
water while it moves slowly west-northwestward towards northern
Central America. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall
is possible across portions of Central America later this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 151740
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Oct 15 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
An area of low pressure located over the central tropical Atlantic
is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is
forecast to move generally westward, and environmental conditions
appear marginally conducive for gradual development by the middle
to latter part of this week. A tropical depression could form as
the system begins moving west-northwestward and approaches or moves
near the Leeward Islands late this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Western Caribbean Sea:
Showers and thunderstorms in the southwestern Caribbean Sea are
associated with a broad area of low pressure. Some gradual
development is possible if the system stays over water while it
moves slowly northwestward towards Central America. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across portions of
Central America later this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 161147
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Oct 16 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
A broad area of low pressure located over the central tropical
Atlantic is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This
system is forecast to move generally westward to west-northwestward,
and environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for gradual
development during the latter part of this week. A tropical
depression could form as the system moves near the Leeward and
Virgin Islands late this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Western Caribbean Sea:
Showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean Sea are
associated with a broad area of low pressure. Some gradual
development is possible if the system stays over water while it
moves slowly northwestward towards Central America. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across portions of
Central America later this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/R. Zelinsky

pocketbox

1. East of the Leeward Islands (AL94):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure
located several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands remain
disorganized.  Environmental conditions appear only marginally
conducive for slow development as the disturbance moves quickly
westward to west-northwestward around 20 mph, passing near the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Friday, then near the Greater
Antilles over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

pocketbox

1. East of the Leeward Islands (AL94):
A poorly-defined trough of low pressure located a couple of hundred
miles east of the Leeward Islands is producing some disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Development, if any, of this disturbance
should be slow to occur while it moves quickly westward to
west-northwestward at around 20 mph, passing near the Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico on Friday, then near Hispaniola and the southeastern
Bahamas on Saturday. By late this weekend, further development is
not expected due to strong upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

pocketbox

1. Near the Leeward Islands (AL94):
A poorly-defined trough of low pressure is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms extending from the northern Leeward
Islands northward for a couple hundred miles over the adjacent
Atlantic waters. Development, if any, of this disturbance should be
slow to occur while it moves quickly westward to west-northwestward
at around 20 mph, passing near or just north of the Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico today, then near Hispaniola and the southeastern
Bahamas on Saturday. By late this weekend, further development is
not expected due to strong upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.