LOW - 关岛西北94W - 15.7N 143.9E

1007圆规

94W INVEST 241017 0000 15.7N 143.9E WPAC 15 0

Ck.

94W

yhh

ABPW10 PGTW 170600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/170600Z-180600ZOCT2024//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.7N
143.5E, APPROXIMATELY 151 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING AREA OF
TURNING OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). A 162330Z ASCAT-B IMAGE REVEALS A POORLY ORGANIZED LLC
WITH SLIGHTLY ELEVATED (15-20 KTS) WINDS IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY,
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVAILING EASTERLIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. VERY WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (31 C) WILL ALSO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM MOVING
FORWARD. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK MOVING TOWARDS THE PHILIPPINE SEA OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

Bunn

94W GFS+EC

普通的台风迷

EC 12Z/18Z 系集。

Ck.

普通的台风迷 发表于 2024-10-18 10:34
EC 12Z/18Z 系集。

看系集，94后面似乎还有一个

Ck.

风切变和涡度图

千草墨鱼

HKO似乎已注意到该系统的情况，给出前期预测的情况

一股清勁至強風程度的偏東氣流會在明日稍後逐漸影響華南沿岸，下週初該區風勢頗大。預料一股乾燥的東北季候風會在下週中後期為廣東地區帶來普遍晴朗的天氣，該區早晚稍涼，日夜溫差較大。此外，位於西北太平洋的廣闊低壓區會在未來數日逐漸發展並移向呂宋以東海域，隨後路徑存在變數。

pocketbox

ABPW10 PGTW 180600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/180600Z-190600ZOCT2024//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15.7N 143.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 136.9E, APPROXIMATELY 461 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION
OVER THE CENTER. A 180004Z ASCAT-C IMAGE REVEALS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION
WITH SLIGHTLY ELEVATED (15-20 KTS) WINDS IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(30-31 C) AND AN INCREASINGLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM MOVING FORWARD. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

理可的呆萌呆毛

EC-AIFS 00z認為菲東近海滯留，進南海后出現南向量