(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.2N
150.5E, APPROXIMATELY 425 NM SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF FULLY EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL TURNING WITH ISOLATED, FLARING CONVECTION JUST EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-30
C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS)
NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT ARE
CURRENTLY HINDERING 98W AS IT BEGINS TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY. INVEST 97W
ALONG WITH INVEST 98W ARE LOCATED WITHIN A COMPLEX STEERING
ENVIRONMENT WITH TWO DISTINCT FORMATION SCENARIOS. GFS AGGRESSIVELY
DEVELOPS 97W WHILE TRACKING THE SYSTEM SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS, WITH 98W TRACKING POLEWARD AND GETTING
ABSORBED WITHIN THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE 97W. NAVGEM AND ECMWF, ON
THE OTHER HAND, SHOW LITTLE DEVELOPMENT WITH 97W BUT SLOWLY DEVELOP
98W AS IT TRACKS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
发表于 2024-10-21 19:43
发表于 2024-10-23 02:59
