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本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2025-1-17 01:00 编辑
WTXS31 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 33.7S 54.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 28 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.7S 54.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 34.5S 61.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 34.3S 67.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 33.9S 56.4E.
17JAN25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
792 NM SOUTH OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 28
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 170600Z IS 989 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
172100Z.//
NNNN
- WDXS31 PGTW 170900
- MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
- SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING
- NR 016//
- RMKS/
- 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
- 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
- SUMMARY:
- INITIAL POSITION: 33.7S 54.8E
- INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
- GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 792 NM SOUTH OF ST DENIS
- MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 28 KTS
- SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET
- SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
- ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
- CYCLONE (TC) 07S (DIKELEDI) AS A WEAKENING CYCLONE THROUGH
- EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WHILE CONVECTION HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY
- SHEARED EASTWARD AND POLEWARD OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
- (LLCC). THE LLCC HAS BECOME FULLY-EXPOSED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS
- AS CONVECTION REMAINS RESTRICTED TO THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
- SYSTEMS CIRCULATION, INDICATING AN INCREASING EASTWARD VERTICAL
- TILT. ALOFT, MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW HAS CONTINUED WITH SUPPORT
- FROM THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES DIRECTLY TO THE SOUTH OF TC 07S.
- THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
- EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 170443Z ASCAT-B PASS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
- FULLY-EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
- CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE RAPIDLY DEGRADING NATURE OF TC 07S THROUGH
- EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 45 KTS.
- INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA
- CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
- EAST-NORTHEAST.
- AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
- PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
- CIMSS ADT: 72 KTS AT 170430Z
- CIMSS AIDT: 63 KTS AT 170430Z
- CIMSS D-PRINT: 41 KTS AT 0430Z
- FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE
- VWS: 20-30 KTS
- SST: 21-22 CELSIUS
- OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
- ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
- INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
- INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
- INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
- 3. FORECAST REASONING.
- SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
- THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
- FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 07S IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE
- EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR LOCATED
- DIRECTLY TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH DISSIPATION BY TAU 24 AS THE
- SYSTEM BECOMES COMPLETELY EMBEDDED WITHIN HE MIDLATITUDE
- BAROCLINIC ZONE. THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE CYCLONE IS
- EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, REACHING COMPLETION
- BETWEEN TAU 18 AND TAU 24 BECAUSE OF THE HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE
- ENVIRONMENT, WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 24 C AND VERTICAL
- WIND SHEAR (VWS) INCREASING ABOVE 30 KTS. WITH REGARD TO INTENSITY,
- THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING TO 35 KTS UNTIL
- EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS COMPLETE WHILE TC 07S BECOMES HIGHLY
- ASYMMETRIC, TILTED, AND VOID OF SUPPORTIVE CONVECTION.
- MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY STRONG
- AGREEMENT THAT TC 07S WILL CONTINUE GENERALLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE
- FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE
- NORTH, WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF JUST 96 NM BY TAU 24, LENDING
- HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THE JTWC INTENSITY
- FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL INTENSITY CONSENSUS
- THROUGHOUT EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION INTO TAU 24, WITH EXPECTED
- DECAY UNTIL THE COMPLETION OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE ONLY
- OUTLIER IS THE DETERMINISTIC GFS SOLUTION, INDICATING A POTENTIAL
- INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITH BAROCLINIC
- SUPPORT DUE TO UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY
- JET. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE DUE
- THE ONGOING EXTRATROPICAL PHASE INTO COMPLETION BY TAU 24.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
- TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
- INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
- NNNN
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楼主: ygsj24
发表于 2025-1-17 15:25
