西澳西北热带低压10U(99S→90S) - 18.3S 112.1E

ygsj24

WTXS21 PGTW 172230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.6S 119.8E TO 21.2S 113.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 172230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 19.2S 119.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 19.2S
119.5E IS NOW LOCATED 19.2S 119.9E, APPROXIMATELY 371 NM EAST-NORTHEAST
OF LEARMONTH. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN 171916Z
SSMIS F18 91GHZ MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICT CURVED CLOUD BANDS FROM
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WRAPPING INTO A QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING LLCC JUST OFF
THE COAST OF AUSTRALIA, WITH CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CENTER AND JUST
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES INVEST 90S IS IN A
CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO VERY WARM (30-32C)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND
MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90S WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS AND TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
182230Z.//
NNNN

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ABIO10 PGTW 172300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/172300Z-181800ZJAN2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/171951ZJAN2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/172221ZJAN2025//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 17JAN25 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 35.0S 61.9E, APPROXIMATELY 927 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS,
MAURITIUS, AND HAD TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 33 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 172100) FOR THE FINAL WARNING
ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
19.2S 119.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.2S 119.9E, APPROXIMATELY 371 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
AN 171916Z SSMIS F18 91GHZ MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICT CURVED CLOUD
BANDS FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WRAPPING INTO A QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING LLCC
JUST OFF THE COAST OF AUSTRALIA, WITH CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CENTER
AND JUST NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES INVEST 90S
IS IN A CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO VERY WARM
(30-32C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90S WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
HIGH. SEE REF B (WTXS21 PGTW 172230) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO HIGH.//
NNNN

ygsj24

WTAU05 APRF 180040
IDW23100

40:2:2:24:19S119E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 0040 UTC 18 JANUARY 2025

GALE WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0000 UTC a Tropical Low was centred within 25 nautical miles of
latitude nineteen decimal three south (19.3S)
longitude one hundred and nineteen decimal two east (119.2E)
Recent movement : west southwest at 8 knots
Maximum winds   : 30 knots
Central pressure: 994 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 130 nautical miles in SE quadrant
  and within 100 nautical miles in SW quadrant

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 30 knots near the centre increasing to 40 knots by 0000 UTC 19
January.

From 1800 UTC 18 January winds above 34 knots within 130 nautical miles in SE
quadrant
  and within 100 nautical miles in SW quadrant with rough seas and moderate
swell.

Forecast positions
At 1200 UTC 18 January: Within 45 nautical miles of 18.9 south 117.7 east
                        Central pressure 996 hPa.
                        Winds to 30 knots near centre.
At 0000 UTC 19 January: Within 60 nautical miles of 19.1 south 116.0 east
                        Central pressure 988 hPa.
                        Winds to 40 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to [email protected].

Next warning will be issued by 0700 UTC 18 January 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	8 am January 18	tropical low	19.3S	119.2E	45
+6hr	2 pm January 18	tropical low	19.1S	118.4E	70
+12hr	8 pm January 18	tropical low	18.9S	117.7E	85
+18hr	2 am January 19	tropical low	18.9S	116.9E	105
+24hr	8 am January 19	tropical low	19.1S	116.0E	115
+36hr	8 pm January 19	1	19.9S	114.0E	115
+48hr	8 am January 20	2	20.8S	111.7E	140
+60hr	8 pm January 20	3	22.0S	109.6E	165
+72hr	8 am January 21	3	23.2S	107.5E	180