马达加斯加以东中等热带风暴第7号“法伊达”(11S.Faida) - 强风切阻发展

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：刘达  签发：向纯怡  2025 年 02 月 04 日 18 时
“法伊达”减弱为热带低压

时        间：4日14时（北京时）

海        域：南印度洋

命        名：“法伊达”，FAIDA

中心位置：南纬19.3度、东经50.3度

强度等级：热带低压

最大风力：6级（12米/秒，相当于我国的热带低压级）

中心气压：1004百帕

参考位置：毛里求斯路易港西偏北方向约770公里左右的洋面上

变化过程：过去24小时，“法伊达”由8级减弱到6级

预报结论：“法伊达”减弱后的热带低压将以每小时10公里左右的速度向西南方向移动。

（这是关于“法伊达”的最后一期监测公报）

yhh

WTXS31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FAIDA) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FAIDA) WARNING NR 016
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   041200Z --- NEAR 19.6S 50.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S 50.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z --- 20.7S 49.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z --- 21.2S 47.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z --- 21.5S 45.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z --- 21.3S 42.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 21.0S 40.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z --- 20.7S 38.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z --- 20.8S 36.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 19.9S 50.2E.
04FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FAIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 041200Z IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
050300Z AND 051500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

---

WTXS31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FAIDA) WARNING NR 016 RELOCATED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FAIDA) WARNING NR 016 RELOCATED
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   041200Z --- NEAR 19.6S 50.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S 50.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z --- 20.7S 49.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z --- 21.2S 47.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z --- 21.5S 45.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z --- 21.3S 42.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 21.0S 40.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z --- 20.7S 38.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z --- 20.8S 36.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 19.9S 50.2E.
04FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FAIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 041200Z IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
050300Z AND 051500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR RELOCATION: RELOCATED 041200Z POSITION 90NM
SOUTHEAST BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SHIFTED FORECAST
TRACK FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST.?/
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 041500
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11S (FAIDA) WARNING NR
   
4. 016//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 19.6S 50.4E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 170 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO,
    
13. MADAGASCAR
    
14.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KTS
    
15.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 13 FEET
    
16. 
    
17. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
18. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY
    
19. EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) MOVING SOUTHWARD ALONG
    
20. THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR. THIS ROTATION WAS FIRST SEEN OVER 12
    
21. HOURS AGO BUT WAS NOT THOUGHT TO BE THE ACTUAL CENTER OF THE SYSTEM
    
22. AT THAT TIME. SUBSEQUENT ANALYSIS HAS DETERMINED THAT THIS IS THE
    
23. PRIME SUSPECT IN BEING THE TRUE CENTER OF CIRCULATION OF THE
    
24. REMNANTS OF TC 11S. THE LLCC HAS BEEN RELOCATED OVER 90NM SOUTHEAST
    
25. OF THE PREVIOUS BEST TRACK POSITION, AND THE INITIAL POSITION IS
    
26. ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC IN THE MSI.
    
27. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, HEDGED ABOVE
    
28. THE LIMITED INTENSITY ESTIMATES NOTED ABOVE BASED ON PERSISTENCE.
    
29. ANALYSIS REVEALS AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH MODERATE
    
30. SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR, WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM SSTS. DRY
    
31. MID-LEVEL AIR IS ENGULFING THE SYSTEM AND KEEPING A SOLID LID ON
    
32. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
    
33. 
    
34. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
    
35. 
    
36. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
    
37. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
    
38. 
    
39. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
40.    PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
    
41.    CIMSS D-MINT: 31 KTS AT 041221Z
    
42.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 28 KTS AT 041230Z
    
43. 
    
44. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
    
45.    VWS: 10-15 KTS
    
46.    SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
    
47.    OUTFLOW: WEAK EQUATORWARD
    
48.    OTHER FACTORS: VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR.
    
49. 
    
50. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
51.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
52.    INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW
    
53.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
54. 
    
55. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
56. 
    
57. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN RELOCATED AND THE
    
58. FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTHWARD, NOW EXPECTED TO
    
59. CROSS MADAGASCAR FURTHER SOUTH THAN ANTICIPATED. THE INTENSITY
    
60. FORECAST HAS ALSO BEEN LOWERED SIGNIFICANTLY.
    
61. 
    
62. FORECAST DISCUSSION: THE RELOCATION OF TC 11S HAS RESULTED IN A
    
63. SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. THE SYSTEM IS
    
64. RELATIVELY SHALLOW AND THUS BEING STEERED BY THE LOW- TO MID-LEVELS
    
65. OF THE STR TO THE EAST, WHICH ARE ORIENTED ROUGHLY NORTH TO SOUTH.
    
66. THE ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGING SHIFTS SUBTLY AFTER TAU 12, TO A
    
67. MORE NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST AXIS, AND THE REMNANTS OF TC 11S ARE
    
68. EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD, MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST
    
69. COAST OF MADAGASCAR AROUND TAU 18. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY
    
70. PRIOR TO LANDFALL AND CONTINUE WEAKENING THEREAFTER, WITH THE
    
71. REMNANT VORTEX QUICKLY CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS AND REEMERGING IN THE
    
72. MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL BY TAU 48. ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES BACK INTO OPEN
    
73. WATERS, IT WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF A STR
    
74. CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR. CONDITIONS GENERALLY
    
75. BECOME MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, WITH VERY WARM SSTS, RELATIVELY
    
76. LOW SHEAR AND INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE MID-LEVELS, THOUGH OUTFLOW
    
77. WILL REMAIN CONSTRAINED AND LIMITED. THUS, ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF
    
78. REINTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
    
79. 
    
80. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC TRACK GUIDANCE IS A HOT MESS, WITH
    
81. MOST OF THE MODELS LOSING THE VORTEX ENTIRELY AFTER ABOUT TAU 48 OR
    
82. MOVING IT IN AN ERRATIC FASHION. THROUGH TAU 48, THE JTWC TRACK
    
83. GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS MEAN, THEN REJOINS THE PREVIOUS
    
84. JTWC FORECAST TRACK AND THE HAFS-A TRACKER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
    
85. THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS EXTREMELY LOW THROUGHOUT THE
    
86. FORECAST. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS HOWEVER IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT,
    
87. WITH THE LIMITED GUIDANCE AVAILABLE SUPPORTING A NEAR-TERM
    
88. WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES MADAGASCAR, FOLLOWED BY A
    
89. REINTENSIFICATION AFTER TAU 48. THE HAFS-A IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE
    
90. IN SHOWING A PEAK AROUND 45 KNOTS IN THE CHANNEL, WHILE THE JTWC
    
91. FORECAST IS SITUATED ABOUT 10 KNOTS WEAKER. SIMILAR TO THE TRACK
    
92. FORECAST, THE LACK OF A FULL SUITE OF GUIDANCE AND THE FACT THAT
    
93. MULTIPLE MODELS LOSE THE VORTEX ALL TOGETHER AFTER LANDFALL, MAKES
    
94. FOR A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
    
95. 
    
96. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
97.    TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW
    
98.    TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
    
99.    INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW
    
100.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
     
101. NNNN

复制代码

ygsj24

WTXS31 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FAIDA) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FAIDA) WARNING NR 017   
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   050000Z --- NEAR 20.4S 48.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S 48.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z --- 20.5S 46.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 20.4S 48.3E.
05FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (FAIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 113
NM SOUTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DETERIORATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION, WITH RAGGED, FRAGMENTED SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
BROAD CENTER. EIR IMAGERY AND A 042228Z GMI 89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS DISORGANIZED SHALLOW BANDING AND WEAK OVERALL
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A POTENTIAL LEE-SIDE
JUMP, WITH A BROAD CIRCULATION SLOWLY DEVELOPING WEST OF CENTRAL
MADAGASCAR IN RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE DE-
COUPLED SYSTEM. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA INDICATES TROUGHING, WITH
NO DISCRETE LLC OR CIRCULATION EVIDENT AT THIS TIME. IN GENERAL, THE
DYNAMIC MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON SIGNIFICANT RE-DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER, THIS AREA WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 050000Z IS 1003
MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 10 FEET. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNINGS (WTXS33
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN