科科斯群岛西南特强热带气旋第14号“考特尼”(27U/27S.Courtney) - 西行发展，风眼开出，快速爆发超预期 - MFR:120KT JTWC:130KT

Leonardo

TPXS11 PGTW 291446

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY)

B. 29/1430Z

C. 18.79S

D. 89.82E

E. ONE/GK2A

F. T7.0/7.0/D1.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY B YIELDS AN
E# OF 5.5. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR W, TO YIELD A DT OF 6.5.
MET AND PT YIELD 7.0. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   29/1009Z  18.47S  90.33E  SSMS
   29/1203Z  18.68S  90.12E  SSMS


   RAE

---

TXXS21 KNES 291155
TCSSIO

A.  27S (COURTNEY)

B.  29/1130Z

C.  18.7S

D.  90.0E

E.  ONE/HIMAWARI-9

F.  T6.5/6.5

G.  IR/EIR/VIS

H.  REMARKS...SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY A WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W AND
EMBEDDED IN W FOR A DT=7.0 AFTER ADDING 1.0 FOR A EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET
AND PT AGREE. 6 HOUR AVERAGING YIELDED A 6.7 THUS THE FT IS BASED ON
CONSTRAINTS LIMITING CHANGE OVER 6 HOURS.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    NIL


...FISHER

=

Leonardo

27S COURTNEY 250329 1200 18.7S 90.1E SHEM 130 932

LsfyHarold

FY-4B
IR自带美颜效果，圆滚滚的很可爱

LsfyHarold

眼温转负

莎莎

巔峰過了..可惜才115kts



近巔峰的SSMIS的底層

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 291823
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/14/20242025
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 14 (COURTNEY)

2.A POSITION 2025/03/29 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.3 S / 89.5 E
(NINETEEN    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY NINE    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/7.0/S 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 940 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 110 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 13 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 70 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/03/30 06 UTC: 20.9 S / 88.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 280 SW: 205 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 45

24H: 2025/03/30 18 UTC: 22.4 S / 88.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 270 SW: 220 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2025/03/31 06 UTC: 23.3 S / 88.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 295 SW: 220 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 35

48H: 2025/03/31 18 UTC: 24.2 S / 88.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 325 SW: 250 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 0

60H: 2025/04/01 06 UTC: 24.8 S / 88.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 315 SW: 260 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 110

72H: 2025/04/01 18 UTC: 25.3 S / 87.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 285 SW: 325 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/04/02 18 UTC: 25.0 S / 85.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SW: 185 NW: 0


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.0

A SAR PASS HAS PASSED OVER COURTNEY AT 1239UTC WITH MAXIMUM WINDS
MEASURED AT 100KT. HOWEVER, STRONG CONVECTION IN THE SOUTH-WEST
QUADRANT SUGGESTS THAT WINDS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THIS QUADRANT.
THE DVORAK ANALYSIS OF 12UTC CARRIED OUT BY THE RSMC GAVE WINDS AT
120KT. THE BESTRACK HAS THEREFORE BEEN REVISED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARDS,
WITH WINDS AT 12UTC OF 110KT.

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE COURTNEY'S EYE CONFIGURATION HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED, BUT HAS DETERIORATED SLIGHTLY. THE EYE CONTOUR IS A
LITTLE LESS REGULAR AND THE TEMPERATURE IN THE EYE HAS COOLED. DVORAK
ANALYSIS AVERAGED OVER 3 HOURS GIVES A T OF 6.0. IN THE ABSENCE OF
OTHER DATA AND IN LINE WITH THE OBJECTIVE ANALYSES OF THE CIMSS,
COURTNEY IS MAINTAINED AS AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH WINDS OF
110KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, LITTLE HAS CHANGED. LINKED TO A RIDGE OF HIGH AND
MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE, COURTNEY CONTINUES TO TURN SOUTH-WEST. THE
MOVEMENT SHOULD THEN CURVE SOUTHWARDS ON SUNDAY, ALSO ATTRACTED BY AN
UPPER TROUGH CIRCULATING TO THE SOUTH-WEST AND THEN SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM. AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, THE STEERING FLOW
SHOULD MOVE DOWN INTO THE MID-LEVELS AND THEN INTO THE LOWER LAYERS.
ON MONDAY, COURTNEY SHOULD MOVE VERY SLOWLY WITHIN A BAROMETRIC COL
SITUATION AT 700HPA, THEN THE MOVEMENT SHOULD RESUME WESTWARDS FROM
TUESDAY ONWARDS, AS THE REMNANT LOW BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADE
WIND FLOW ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
ANTICYCLONE.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, COURTNEY WILL CONTINUE TO BENEFIT FROM GOOD
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS (GOOD ALTITUDE
DIVERGENCE, GOOD OCEAN POTENTIAL, WIND SHEAR STILL HAVING LITTLE
IMPACT) AND SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER RANGE OF THE INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE STAGE. THEN, THE NORTHERLY THEN NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR
SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM SUNDAY, THROUGH INTERACTION WITH THE
TROUGH, WHICH SHOULD INITIATE A WEAKENING TREND. IN ADDITION, THE
SYSTEM'S SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT WILL TAKE IT OVER LOWER ENERGY CONTENT
SURFACE WATERS, ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO WEAKENING. COURTNEY IS THEREFORE
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BELOW TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE BEFORE MONDAY
MORNING. FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, IN A HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT,
COURTNEY COULD LOSE SOME OF ITS TROPICAL FEATURES, AND CONVECTION IS
LIKELY TO WEAKEN, CAUSING IT TO EVOLVE INTO A POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM
AND THEN INTO A REMNANT LOW LACKING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.
GALE-FORCE WINDS AND THEN NEAR-GALE-FORCE WINDS SHOULD PERSIST IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO PRESSURE GRADIENT EFFECT UNTIL WEDNESDAY,
BEFORE THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES MORE CLEARLY OVER THE FOLLOWING DAYS.

COURTNEY DOES NOT THREATEN ANY INHABITED LAND.=

ygsj24

WTXS31 PGTW 292100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY) WARNING NR 015   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   291800Z --- NEAR 19.5S 89.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S 89.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   300600Z --- 21.1S 88.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   301800Z --- 22.7S 88.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   310600Z --- 23.8S 88.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   311800Z --- 24.5S 88.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   011800Z --- 25.5S 88.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   021800Z --- 25.4S 86.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
292100Z POSITION NEAR 19.9S 89.1E.
29MAR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
620 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 291800Z IS 939 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 46 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
300900Z AND 302100Z.
//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 292100
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY) WARNING
   
4. NR 015//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 19.5S 89.3E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 125 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 620 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 46 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
    
18. SYMMETRICAL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) WITH A COMPACT EYE FEATURE
    
19. ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 27S (COURTNEY). AS THE SYSTEM
    
20. IS TRANSITING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
    
21. STR TO THE SOUTHEAST, IT IS SHOWING SIGNS OF SLIGHT WEAKENING.
    
22. ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM REACHED ITS PEAK OF 130-135 KTS
    
23. WITHIN THE LAST 6-12 HOURS. OVER THE LAST TWO HOURS HOWEVER, THE
    
24. EYE HAS BEEN CONTRACTING, COOLING AND BEGINNING TO FILL. EYE
    
25. TEMPERATURE IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED AT -24 C, WHICH IS OVER 30
    
26. DEGREES COOLER THAN 12 HOURS AGO. THE ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
    
27. REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, WITH LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
    
28. SHEAR (VWS), MODERATELY WARM (26-27 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
    
29. (SST), GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW, AS WELL AS GOOD AMOUNT OF MONSOONAL,
    
30. DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
    
31. CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SMALL EYE FEATURE PRESENT IN THE EIR
    
32. IMAGERY LOOP, CONSISTENT WITH THE MICROWAVE EYE VISIBLE IN THE
    
33. 291753Z GMI 37 GHZ IMAGE. TC COURTNEY CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE IN THIS
    
34. MICROWAVE IMAGE HINTS AT THE INCOMPLETE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE
    
35. (ERC), WHICH IS ALSO INDICATED BY MUCH LOWER (10-15 PERCENT) M-PERC
    
36. ERC PROBABILITY FROM CIMSS, AS COMPARED TO THE ONE FROM 12 HOURS AGO.
    
37. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 125 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
    
38. BASED ON THE SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND INDICATED BY THE AGENCY DVORAK
    
39. ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW, AS WELL AS THE OBJECTIVE FIXES FROM ADT,
    
40. AIDT AND D-PRINT ALL OSCILLATING AROUND 125 KTS.
    
41. 
    
42. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 291513 METOP-C ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA
    
43. 
    
44. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
    
45. THE SOUTHEAST
    
46. 
    
47. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
48.    PGTW: T7.0 - 140 KTS
    
49.    KNES: T6.5 - 127 KTS
    
50.    DEMS: T7.0 - 140 KTS
    
51.    FMEE: T7.0 - 140 KTS
    
52.    FIMP: T7.0 - 140 KTS
    
53.    CIMSS ADT: 127 KTS AT 291815Z
    
54.    CIMSS AIDT: 124 KTS AT 291715Z
    
55.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 123 KTS AT 291715Z
    
56. 
    
57. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
    
58.    VWS: 5-10 KTS
    
59.    SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
    
60.    OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL
    
61. 
    
62. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
63.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
64.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
65.    INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
    
66. 
    
67. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
68. 
    
69. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
70. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
71. 
    
72. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 27S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
    
73. SOUTHWESTWARD, AS IT APPROACHES THE AXIS OF A STR TO THE SOUTHEAST.
    
74. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINALLY
    
75. FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COOLING
    
76. SST, AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS POLEWARD. AT THE SAME TIME, BY TAU 24, VWS
    
77. WILL BEGIN TO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE, EXCEEDING 25 KTS, WHICH
    
78. COMBINED WITH COOL (24-25 C) SST AND INCREASING DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
    
79. FROM THE NORTH, WILL CREATE A MUCH MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT, LEADING
    
80. TO A CONTINUOUS WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. ADDITIONALLY, COAMPS-TC
    
81. EPS INTENSITY IS HINTING AT MODERATE TO RAPID WEAKENING OUT TO TAU
    
82. 48. AFTERWARDS, TC 27S IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TRANSITIONING INTO A
    
83. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM, AS ITS STRUCTURE SHALLOWS OUT, DUE TO
    
84. DRASTICALLY INCREASING VWS. STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH
    
85. WILL THEN CAUSE TC COURTNEY TO SLOW DOWN AND THEN BE STEERED
    
86. WESTWARD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 96, PRIOR TO
    
87. COMPLETION OF THE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION.
    
88. 
    
89. MODEL DISCUSSION: SHORT TERM NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
    
90. GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH ALL GUIDANCE PREDICTING STORM MOVEMENT ALONG
    
91. THE PERIPHERY OF A STR AND JTWC TRACK FORECAST ASSESSED WITH HIGH
    
92. CONFIDENCE. CROSS-TRACK SPREAD PRIOR TO THE SYSTEM SLOWING DOWN AT
    
93. TAU 48 IS 100 NM, WITH ONLY NAVGEM SHOWING A FASTER MOVEMENT,
    
94. LEADING TO THE SYSTEM GOING FURTHER EAST. AFTER TAU 48, ALL
    
95. REMAINING GUIDANCE DEPICTS TC COURTNEY TRACKING WESTWARD, BUT THE
    
96. FORECAST ENVELOPE INCREASES TO A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF A 150 NM BY
    
97. THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALONG-TRACK SPREAD BY TAU 96 IS
    
98. OVER 220 NM, EXCLUDING NAVGEM, RESULTING IN A MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF THE
    
99. LONG TERM TRACK FORECAST. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT,
    
100. WITH ALL OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS MEMBERS INDICATING STEADY
     
101. WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE DISSIPATION
     
102. TIMELINE RANGES BETWEEN TAU 60 AND 96, RESULTING IN MEDIUM INTENSITY
     
103. FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT. JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SET
     
104. SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE CONSENSUS MEAN AND CLOSE TO THE HAFS-A GUIDANCE.
     
105. 
     
106. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
     
107.    TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
     
108.    TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
     
109.    INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
     
110.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
     
111. NNNN

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