中东太／北大各类图像自动更新暨非扰动云团专帖（2024年）

ygsj24

265
ABNT20 KNHC 050526
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Sep 5 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northwestern Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure located a few hundred miles east
of North Carolina is producing limited shower and thunderstorm
activity well to the east of its center. This system could acquire
some subtropical characteristics over the next couple of days or so
while it moves generally north-northeastward, remaining offshore of
the northeastern United States. Once the low moves over cooler
waters by late Saturday, further subtropical development is not
expected. Additional information on this system, including gale
warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A broad area of low pressure over the eastern tropical Atlantic is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow
development of this system is possible during the next several days
while it drifts northwestward or northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A tropical wave moving quickly westward at about 20 mph over the
western Caribbean Sea continues to produce a broad area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some development is possible
in a few days after the system crosses the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico and moves over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
Another tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the
Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm
activity. Strong upper-level winds are expected to limit development
of this system during the next few days while it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. By early next week,
environmental conditions could become more conducive for some slow
development while the system moves northwestward over the
southwestern Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts are issued by the National Weather Service
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online
at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 051146
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Sep 5 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form early next week off
the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions could support
gradual development of this system thereafter while it moves
generally west-northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of
southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 051152
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Sep 5 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northwest Gulf of Mexico:
A trough of low pressure is producing widespread disorganized
showers and thunderstorms across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico,
including near the coasts of Louisiana and Texas.  Upper-level
winds are expected to become less conducive for development by
Friday and Saturday as a frontal boundary approaches the system.  
Although development is unlikely, heavy rainfall is expected
across portions of the northern Gulf Coast during the next day or
so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Northwestern Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure located a few hundred miles east
of North Carolina is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms to the northeast and east of its center.  This system
could acquire some subtropical characteristics over the next couple
of days while it moves generally north-northeastward, remaining
offshore of the northeastern United States.  Once the low moves
over cooler waters by late Saturday, further subtropical development
is not expected.  Additional information on this system, including
gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A broad area of low pressure over the eastern tropical Atlantic is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow
development of this system is possible during the next several days
while it drifts northwestward or northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased slightly in
association with a westward-moving tropical wave located over the
western Caribbean Sea.  Significant development appears unlikely
before the system reaches Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula by early
Friday.  Some development is possible late in the weekend into early
next week after the system emerges over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
Another tropical wave located a few hundred miles east of the
Leeward Islands is producing limited shower and thunderstorm
activity. Strong upper-level winds are expected to limit development
of this system during the next few days while it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. By early next week,
environmental conditions could become more conducive for some slow
development while the system moves west-northwestward over the
southwestern Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts are issued by the National Weather Service
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online
at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Hagen

红豆棒冰冰

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Sep 5 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form early next week off
the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions could support
gradual development of this system thereafter while it moves
generally west-northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of
southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.


Forecaster Cangialosi

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 052326
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Sep 5 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL90):
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms persists over
the northwestern Gulf of Mexico in association with a broad area of
low pressure that is interacting with a nearby weak front.
Upper-level winds are expected to remain unfavorable for significant
development of this system while it meanders over the northwestern
Gulf and eventually merges with an approaching frontal system by
late Friday or Saturday. Although tropical cyclone development is
unlikely, heavy rainfall is expected to continue across portions of
the northern Gulf Coast during the next day or so. Additional
information on this system can be found in products issued by your
local National Weather Service Forecast Office and High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Northwestern Atlantic (AL99):
A gale-force, non-tropical area of low pressure centered a few
hundred miles east of North Carolina is producing showers and
thunderstorms with some signs of organization to the east of its
center. This system could acquire some tropical or subtropical
characteristics over the next day or two while it moves generally
north-northeastward, remaining offshore of the northeastern United
States. The low is expected to move over cooler waters and become
associated with fronts by early Saturday, and further development is
not expected. Additional information on this system, including gale
warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A tropical wave located over the western Caribbean Sea is producing
a large area of disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Development is not expected before the system reaches Belize and the
Yucatan Peninsula by early Friday. Some slow development is possible
later this weekend after the system emerges over the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
An elongated trough of low pressure over the eastern tropical
Atlantic is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity.
Development, if any, should be slow to occur during the early part
of next week while the disturbance moves slowly northwestward or
northward over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
Another tropical wave located a few hundred miles east of the
Leeward Islands is producing limited shower and thunderstorm
activity. Development is not expected due to strong upper-level
winds while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts are issued by the National Weather Service
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online
at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 061746
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Sep 6 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL90):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system and
weak frontal boundary over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico remain
disorganized.  The low is expected to be absorbed by the front and
lose definition by tonight or on Saturday, and therefore tropical
cyclone development is not expected.  Regardless of development,
heavy rainfall is expected to continue and possibly cause flash
flooding across portions of the northern Gulf Coast during the next
day or so.  Additional information on this system can be found in
products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast
Office and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

Northwestern Atlantic (AL99):
An intensifying low pressure system located several hundred miles
east of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast continues to take on a
non-tropical structure and is now producing winds to storm force.  
Subtropical development of this system is not expected while it
moves north-northeastward at 15 to 20 mph offshore the northeastern
United States toward Atlantic Canada.  Additional information on
this system, including storm warnings, can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A tropical wave located over Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  The
wave is forecast to move into the Bay of Campeche on Saturday,
where it could then begin to interact with a frontal boundary.  A
tropical depression could form during the early or middle part of
next week while the system moves slowly northwestward over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
An elongated trough of low pressure over the eastern tropical
Atlantic is producing minimal shower and thunderstorm activity.
Development, if any, should be slow to occur while the disturbance
meanders through the early part of next week and then begins to
move west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic during
the middle to latter part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts are issued by the National Weather Service
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online
at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Berg

ygsj24

033
ABNT20 KNHC 062316
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Sep 6 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
over Belize, Guatemala, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. The
wave is forecast to move over the Bay of Campeche on Saturday, where
it will begin to interact with a frontal boundary. A tropical
depression could form during the early or middle part of next week
while the system moves slowly northwestward over the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
An elongated trough of low pressure over the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic is producing broad shower and thunderstorm
activity. A more concentrated area of low pressure may form within
this region during the next couple of days. Any development of this
system should be slow to occur while the disturbance meanders
through the early part of next week and then begins to move
west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic during the
middle to latter part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 070522
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Sep 7 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A tropical wave over the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms over Guatemala, southeastern
Mexico, and the adjacent waters of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
The wave is expected to move over the Bay of Campeche later today,
and an area of low pressure is forecast to develop while interacting
with a frontal boundary. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form
during the early or middle part of next week while the system moves
slowly northwestward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
An elongated trough of low pressure over the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic is producing a broad area of shower and
thunderstorm activity. A more well-defined area of low pressure may
form within this region during the next few days. Some slow
development of this system is possible while the disturbance
meanders through the early part of next week, then begins to move
west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic during the
middle to latter part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 071752
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Sep 7 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Western Gulf of Mexico (AL91):
An area of low pressure has formed over the Bay of Campeche and is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The system is
forecast to drift slowly northward for a couple of days while it
interacts with a frontal boundary. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression
is likely to form during the early or middle part of next week while
the system moves generally northward near or along the Mexican and
Texas Gulf coastline.  Interests along the western Gulf of Mexico
coast should closely monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure over the central tropical Atlantic is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Gradual
development of this system is possible while the system meanders
during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression could form
early next week.  The system is then forecast to move
west-northwestward at about 10 mph across the central tropical
Atlantic during the middle to latter part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of
low pressure are located several hundred miles east-southeast of
the Cabo Verde Islands.  Some slow development of this system is
possible as it interacts with a tropical wave expected to move off
the African continent early next week and moves west-northwestward
at 5 to 10 mph.  
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 072331
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Sep 7 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Western Gulf of Mexico (AL91):
An area of low pressure located over the Bay of Campeche is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This disturbance
is forecast to drift slowly northward during the next several days
while it interacts with a frontal boundary. Environmental conditions
are forecast to become more conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form while the system moves
generally northward near or along the Gulf coast of Mexico and Texas
through the middle of next week. Interests along the western Gulf of
Mexico coast should closely monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure over the central tropical Atlantic has begun to show signs
of organization. Gradual additional development is possible while
the system meanders over the central tropical Atlantic through
Monday and then moves generally westward at about 10 mph through the
rest of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of
low pressure are located several hundred miles southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands. The disturbance is expected to move very
little during the next few days until it potentially interacts with
a tropical wave that is forecast to move off the west coast of
Africa by early Monday. Environmental conditions are expected to be
favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form by the middle or late portions of next week.
The system is expected to begin moving slowly westward by the end
of the week.  
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky