西澳以北11U(91S) - 18.0S 121.5E - 数值支持发展

yhh

实时云图

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编扰资讯

91S INVEST 250116 0000 17.0S 123.5E SHEM 15 0
91S INVEST 250116 0000 16.8S 123.7E SHEM 15 1004

pocketbox

Tropical Low 11U
Tropical low (11U) may form off Kimberley coast over the weekend.

• A tropical low (11U) may form off the Kimberley coast later this week or over the weekend.
• The potential for 11U to become a tropical cyclone is rated Low from Friday onwards.
• Another tropical low (10U) is forming north of the west Pilbara coast, and that system is rated more likely to develop. If 10U does not end up developing then the ratings for 11U (this system) would increase.
• No matter which low becomes dominant there is the potential for a system to move west or southwest over the weekend and early next week near the Pilbara coast and could develop further.
  

Last updated
2 hours ago, 12:10 am UTC

Tropical lows

Today 12:00 pm

Tomorrow 12:00 am

Tomorrow 12:00 pm

Sat 18  Jan 12:00 am

Sat 18  Jan 12:00 pm

Sun 19  Jan 12:00 am

Sun 19  Jan 12:00 pm

Mon 20  Jan 12:00 am

Mon 20  Jan 12:00 pm

Tue 21  Jan 12:00 am

Tue 21  Jan 12:00 pm

Wed 22  Jan 12:00 am

Wed 22  Jan 12:00 pm

Thu 23  Jan 12:00 am

Tropical Low 11U

null (None)

1 (Very Low)

5 (Low)

10 (Low)

15 (Low)

15 (Low)

15 (Low)

15 (Low)

15 (Low)

15 (Low)

15 (Low)

10 (Low)

10 (Low)

5 (Low)

pocketbox

Tropical Low 11U
The risk of a tropical cyclone increases to high on Sunday.

• Tropical low (11U) is forming over the western Kimberley.
• The formation of 11U may be affected by tropical low (10U) however it is increasingly likely that the two systems will form into one broad low during Saturday.
• The potential for 11U to become a tropical cyclone increases to High during Sunday.
• There is a chance that gales may develop in offshore waters from the Pilbara coast as 11U intensifies during Sunday.
• People in the Pilbara should stay up to date with the latest information.
  

Last updated
5 hours ago, 09:00 am UTC

Tropical lows

Tomorrow 12:00 am

Tomorrow 12:00 pm

Sat 18  Jan 12:00 am

Sat 18  Jan 12:00 pm

Sun 19  Jan 12:00 am

Sun 19  Jan 12:00 pm

Mon 20  Jan 12:00 am

Mon 20  Jan 12:00 pm

Tue 21  Jan 12:00 am

Tue 21  Jan 12:00 pm

Wed 22  Jan 12:00 am

Wed 22  Jan 12:00 pm

Thu 23  Jan 12:00 am

Thu 23  Jan 12:00 pm

Tropical Low 11U

null (None)

null (None)

10 (Low)

15 (Low)

35 (Moderate)

55 (High)

70 (High)

70 (High)

70 (High)

60 (High)

55 (High)

45 (Moderate)

25 (Moderate)

15 (Low)

理可的呆萌呆毛

西澳嘛
通常不是詐騙什麼都沒有就是高上限
900-大餅一年可以有幾次（說的GFS-FV3這個大更新之後的8XX)
但地形太容易讓擾動在陸地不斷磨了。。。

pocketbox

Tropical Low 11U
The risk of a tropical cyclone increases to high on Sunday.

• Tropical low (11U) is forming over the western Kimberley.
• The formation of 11U may be affected by tropical low (10U) however it is increasingly likely that the two systems will form into one broad low during Saturday.
• The potential for 11U to become a tropical cyclone increases to High during Sunday.
• There is a chance that gales may develop in offshore waters from the Pilbara coast as 11U intensifies during Sunday.
• People in the Pilbara should stay up to date with the latest information.
  

Last updated
3 hours ago, 12:39 am UTC

Tropical lows

Today 11:00 pm

Tomorrow 11:00 am

Tomorrow 11:00 pm

Sun 19  Jan 11:00 am

Sun 19  Jan 11:00 pm

Mon 20  Jan 11:00 am

Mon 20  Jan 11:00 pm

Tue 21  Jan 11:00 am

Tue 21  Jan 11:00 pm

Wed 22  Jan 11:00 am

Wed 22  Jan 11:00 pm

Thu 23  Jan 11:00 am

Thu 23  Jan 11:00 pm

Fri 24  Jan 11:00 am

Tropical Low 11U

1 (Very Low)

10 (Low)

15 (Low)

35 (Moderate)

55 (High)

70 (High)

70 (High)

70 (High)

60 (High)

55 (High)

45 (Moderate)

15 (Low)

10 (Low)

null (None)

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IDW24100

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued at 2:47 pm WST on Friday 17 January 2025

Headline:
High risk of a tropical cyclone forming north of the Pilbara on Sunday.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
None.

Watch Zone
De Grey to Ningaloo.

Cancelled Zone
None.

A tropical low is likely to form north of the Pilbara coast during Saturday. The environment is highly favourable and the low has a high chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during Sunday. The developing low is expected to move on a westwards track and stay to the north of the Pilbara coast, eventually moving out into the Indian Ocean and away from the WA mainland early next week.

Hazards:
GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS may develop about coastal and island communities between De Grey and Dampier from early Sunday as the low intensifies to the north of the coast.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS may extend from Dampier to Exmouth overnight Sunday as the system moves further west.

As the cyclone moves north of the coast, a storm tide is expected between De Grey and Exmouth. Large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.

Recommended Action:
Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 9:00 pm AWST Friday 17 January.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	2 pm January 17	tropical low	18.5S	121.5E	110
+6hr	8 pm January 17	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+12hr	2 am January 18	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+18hr	8 am January 18	tropical low	18.3S	118.9E	95
+24hr	2 pm January 18	tropical low	18.4S	118.5E	140
+36hr	2 am January 19	tropical low	18.8S	116.7E	130
+48hr	2 pm January 19	tropical low	19.5S	114.8E	145
+60hr	2 am January 20	2	20.2S	112.7E	175
+72hr	2 pm January 20	2	21.4S	110.4E	215

iam最小值

BOM罕见地在系统还没“形成”就开始发报了（A tropical low is likely to form …）。从云图上看10U和11U在一个大低压区范围里，环流对11U有利。数值预报也看好这点，BOM因此撤掉了对10U的展望，认为11U未来会命名。

ygsj24

IDW24100

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 2
Issued at 8:58 pm WST on Friday 17 January 2025

Headline:
A tropical low is likely to develop into a tropical cyclone north of the Pilbara this weekend, with peripheral impacts along the Pilbara coast.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
None.

Watch Zone
Ningaloo to De Grey, including Port Hedland, Karratha, Dampier, Onslow and Exmouth.

Cancelled Zone
None.

A tropical low is forming to the north of the Pilbara coast. The environment is conducive to development and the low has a high chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Sunday. The developing low is expected to move on a westwards track, parallel to the coast, remaining to the north of the Pilbara during the weekend. Early next week, the cyclone is expected to continue on a southwest track, moving well away from the WA mainland coast. Whilst the system is expected to remain north of the coast and no landfall is expected, peripheral impacts for coastal parts are likely.

Hazards:
GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS may develop about coastal and island communities between De Grey and Dampier from early Sunday as the low intensifies to the north of the coast.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS may extend from Dampier to Exmouth overnight Sunday as the system moves further west.

As the system moves westwards, parallel to north WA coast during the weekend, a storm tide is expected between De Grey and Exmouth during Sunday and Monday. Large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.

Recommended Action:
Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 3:00 am AWST Saturday 18 January.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	8 pm January 17	tropical low	18.8S	120.9E	110
+6hr	2 am January 18	tropical low	19.0S	120.1E	135
+12hr	8 am January 18	tropical low	19.1S	119.0E	150
+18hr	2 pm January 18	tropical low	19.2S	117.9E	165
+24hr	8 pm January 18	tropical low	18.8S	117.3E	175
+36hr	8 am January 19	tropical low	18.9S	116.1E	190
+48hr	8 pm January 19	1	19.6S	114.2E	180
+60hr	8 am January 20	2	20.6S	112.0E	175
+72hr	8 pm January 20	3	22.0S	109.9E	200

Leonardo

TXXS28 KNES 171238
TCSSIO

A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91S)

B.  17/1130Z

C.  18.5S

D.  120.7E

E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-9

F.  T1.0/1.0

G.  IR/EIR/VIS

H.  REMARKS...RADAR SUGGESTS A CIRCULATION MAY EXIST BENEATH A LARGE
COLD OVERCAST. GREATER THAN 2/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.0. THE
MET AND PT ARE 1.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    NIL


...TURK

=

理可的呆萌呆毛

91S距離岸邊有一段距離，前幾天預計的與90S互撕暫時沒出現，應該不至於重演Seroja和Odette的大戰
但感覺吞掉90S后結構會有所影響，整合可能有點慢。
下面是31度以上的SST，還是可以期待一下。。。。

最重要是不要南崩跑陸地上去了