‌罗德里格斯岛东北强热带气旋第3号“贝基”(02S.Bheki) - 风眼构建，西南行进，趋向毛里求斯 - MFR:105KT JTWC:115KT

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 181301
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 25/3/20242025
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BHEKI)

2.A POSITION 2024/11/18 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.6 S / 68.7 E
(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY EIGHT    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.0/W 1.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 970 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 220 SW: 165 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/11/19 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 67.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 305 SW: 230 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 0

24H: 2024/11/19 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 65.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 280 SW: 270 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 0

36H: 2024/11/20 00 UTC: 19.0 S / 62.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 250 SW: 250 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 0

48H: 2024/11/20 12 UTC: 19.8 S / 59.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 230 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 0 NW: 0

60H: 2024/11/21 00 UTC: 20.9 S / 57.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 0 NW: 0

72H: 2024/11/21 12 UTC: 22.2 S / 55.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/11/22 12 UTC: 24.2 S / 53.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 0

120H: 2024/11/23 12 UTC: 26.8 S / 50.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DISSIPATING

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5+ CI=5.0-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BEGUN TO DETERIORATE,
WITH THE GRADUAL DISAPPEARANCE OF THE EYE. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES
ARE DOWN BETWEEN 4.5 AND 5.0. MICROWAVE IMAGES, NOTABLY THE AMSR2 AND
GMI PASSES, SHOW DETERIORATION OF THE INNER CORE, WITH AN ERODED
EYEWALL IN THE NORTH- WESTERN QUADRANT, AND A TILT. THIS EVOLUTION IS
STILL RELATED TO THE PROGRESSIVE STRENGTHENING OF SHEAR ESTIMATED AT
10/15KT BY CIMSS. IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES
(AIDT, DMINT, DPRINT), AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES, THE INTENSITY
IS LOWERED TO 75KT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TRACK. BHEKI SLOWED DOWN BEFORE TURNING
WEST-SOUTH-WEST, DRIVEN BY THE MID-TROPOSPHERE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE
SUBSEQUENT LOWERING OF THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO A DRIFT ON
THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE MASCARENE ANTICYCLONE. THE SPREAD AMONG THE
VARIOUS GUIDANCES HAS BEGUN TO NARROW AROUND A SCENARIO PASSING NORTH
OF RODRIGUES AND SOUTH OF REUNION. HOWEVER, THE DISTANCE TO THE
MASCARENE ISLANDS IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, DESPITE GOOD ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE AND STILL
SUFFICIENT OCEAN POTENTIAL, BHEKI IS BEGINNING TO EXPERIENCE
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THIS SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE TODAY, ENABLING THE
INTRUSION OF SURROUNDING DRY AIR. BHEKI SHOULD THEREFORE CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN FURTHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FROM TUESDAY EVENING, BHEKI
SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A FILLING AND THEN RESIDUAL SYSTEM, WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT. THE INTERACTION WITH A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT COULD, HOWEVER, KEEP
GALESOR NEAR GALES IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. BHEKI SHOULD
DISAPPEAR OVER THE WEEKEND SOUTH-EAST OF MADAGASCAR.

EXPECTED IMPACTS ON RODRIGUES:
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6M FROM TUESDAY UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
RODRIGUES INHABITANTS ARE STRONGLY ADVISED TO MONITOR THE SYSTEM'S
EVOLUTION CLOSELY, AND TO KEEP INFORMED OF WEATHER FORECASTS ISSUED
BY THE MAURITIUS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

EXPECTED IMPACT ON MAURITIUS :
- WAVES AROUND 4M BETWEEN WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY MORNING.
- WORSENING OF WEATHER CONDITIONS (WIND AND RAIN) POSSIBLE FROM
WEDNESDAY BUT STILL UNCERTAIN
MAURITIUS INHABITANTS ARE INVITED TO KEEP INFORMED OF THE WEATHER
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE MAURITIUS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

EXPECTED IMPACT ON REUNION :
- WAVES APPROACHING 4M OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY.
- WORSENING OF WEATHER CONDITIONS (WIND AND RAIN) POSSIBLE FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT STILL UNCERTAIN=

renzhetegong

TPXS10 PGTW 181203
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BHEKI)
B. 18/1130Z
C. 17.14S
D. 69.02E
E. ONE/MET9
F. T4.5/5.5/W1.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 03A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. EYE EMBEDDED 29NM IN CDO YIELDS AN
E# OF 4.0 AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 4.0. MET YIELDS 5.5. PT
YIELDS 5.0. DBO HELD BY CONSTRAINTS.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   18/0836Z  17.43S  69.45E  AMS2
   18/0836Z  17.52S  69.28E  CWVR
   18/0837Z  17.42S  69.13E  TMPT
   18/0857Z  17.42S  69.37E  GPMI

   PETERSEN

---

TXXS26 KNES 181229
TCSSIO
A.  02S (BHEKI)
B.  18/1130Z
C.  17.5S
D.  69.3E
E.  THREE/MET-9
F.  T4.5/5.5
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...11/10 BANDING ON A LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 4.0. MET
IS A 4.5 DUE TO A WEAKENING TREND IN SYSTEM. PT AGREES WITH MET. THE FT
IS BASED ON THE MET DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL

...NGUYEN

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 181841
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 26/3/20242025
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BHEKI)

2.A POSITION 2024/11/18 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.7 S / 68.4 E
(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY EIGHT    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/5.0/W 1.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 976 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 280 SW: 260 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 195 SW: 175 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/11/19 06 UTC: 18.3 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 295 SW: 240 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 0

24H: 2024/11/19 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 64.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 345 SW: 315 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 0

36H: 2024/11/20 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 61.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 230 SW: 230 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 100 NW: 0

48H: 2024/11/20 18 UTC: 20.3 S / 58.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 270 SW: 185 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 0 NW: 0

60H: 2024/11/21 06 UTC: 21.5 S / 56.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 250 SW: 205 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 0 NW: 0

72H: 2024/11/21 18 UTC: 22.6 S / 54.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 260 SW: 140 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/11/22 18 UTC: 24.4 S / 52.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SW: 195 NW: 0

120H: 2024/11/23 18 UTC: 27.9 S / 49.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DISSIPATING

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0 CI=5.0-

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE SYSTEM'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO
DETERIORATE UNDER THE EFFECT OF INCREASING WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WIND
SHEAR. CONVECTION REMAINS INTENSE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE
CYCLONE, BUT HAS CLEARLY WEAKENED IN THE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE
LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGES, IN PARTICULAR A F16-SSMIS AT 1408Z, CONFIRM
AN INCREASING OFFSET BETWEEN CONVECTION AND THE SURFACE CENTER, THE
LATTER BEING DISPLACED TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE MID-LEVEL VORTEX.
THE 12UTC INTENSITY HAS BEEN REVISED UPWARDS AFTERHAND IN THE
BEST-TRACK, CHANGED FROM 75 TO 80 KT, IN PARTICULAR DUE TO THE SAR
RCM2 IMAGE OF 1352Z INDICATING WINDS STILL ABOVE 100 KT (1MIN WINDS)
DESPITE POSSIBLE OVERESTIMATION. IT ALSO SHOWS A MORE ASYMMETRICAL
WIND STRUCTURE, CONSISTENT WITH THE INCREASING SHEAR. A SMAP PASS AT
1318Z SHOWS WINDS AT 72 KT, PROBABLY SLIGHTLY UNDERESTIMATED.
DVORAK ANALYSIS AT 18UTC BASED ON MET/PT YIELDS AN FT AT 4.0, WITH CI
REMAINING AT 5.0- BY INERTIA (EQUIVALENT TO 75 KT). OBJECTIVE CIMSS
ESTIMATES ARE DOWN SHARPLY AND CLOSE TO 60 KT. THE FINAL INTENSITY AT
18UTC IS ESTIMATED AT 70 KT, MAKING A COMPROMISE BETWEEN VARIOUS
AVAILABLE DATA INPUT. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE PROBABLY NO LONGER
PRESENT IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT.

BHEKI'S MOVEMENT NOW SEEMS TO SLIGHTLY ACCELERATE WHILE TURNING
WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARDS, DRIVEN BY THE MID-TROPOSPHERE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. THE LOWERING OF THE STEERING FLOW DUE TO THE SYSTEM'S
WEAKENING SHOULD THEN MAKE IT DRIFT ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
MASCARENE HIGH. THE SPREAD AMONG MODELS HAS BEGUN TO NARROW AROUND A
SCENARIO PASSING NORTH OF RODRIGUES AND SOUTH OF REUNION. HOWEVER,
THE DISTANCE TO THE MASCARENE ISLANDS IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ONGOING RAPID WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL
TUESDAY UNDER THE INCREASING EFFECTS OF WIND SHEAR DRIVING DRY AIR
INTO THE SYSTEM'S CORE. FROM TUESDAY EVENING ONWARDS, BHEKI SHOULD
BECOME A REMNANT LOW GRADUALLY FILLING IN, WITH NO PARTICULAR
POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT. THE INTERACTION WITH A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT COULD, HOWEVER, KEEP SOME NEAR-GALE
FORCE WINDS OR EVEN GALES IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. BHEKI SHOULD
DISSIPATE THIS WEEKEND OFF THE SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR.

EXPECTED IMPACTS ON RODRIGUES :
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6M FROM TUESDAY UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY BETWEEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
- TEMPORARY HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY SHOWERS, WITH POSSIBLE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS NEARING 100 MM IN 6 TO 12 HOURS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
RODRIGUES INHABITANTS ARE STRONGLY ADVISED TO MONITOR THE SYSTEM'S
EVOLUTION CLOSELY, AND TO STAY INFORMED OF WEATHER FORECASTS ISSUED
BY THE MAURITIUS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

EXPECTED IMPACT ON MAURITIUS :
- WAVES AROUND 4M FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO THURSDAY MORNING.
- WORSENING OF WEATHER CONDITIONS (WIND AND RAIN) POSSIBLE FROM
WEDNESDAY BUT STILL UNCERTAIN.
MAURITIUS INHABITANTS ARE INVITED TO STAY INFORMED OF WEATHER
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE MAURITIUS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

EXPECTED IMPACT ON REUNION :
- WAVES APPROACHING 4M FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
- WORSENING OF WEATHER CONDITIONS (WIND AND RAIN) POSSIBLE FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT STILL UNCERTAIN=

ygsj24

WTXS31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BHEKI) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BHEKI) WARNING NR 010   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   181800Z --- NEAR 17.6S 68.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 68.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 18.0S 66.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z --- 18.4S 64.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 18.9S 61.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z --- 19.7S 59.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z --- 21.9S 55.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 24.0S 52.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 17.7S 68.1E.
18NOV24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BHEKI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 653
NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 181800Z IS 976 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
190900Z AND 192100Z.//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 182100
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BHEKI) WARNING NR
   
4. 010//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 17.6S 68.5E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 75 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 653 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 05 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 26 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP
    
18. CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF A
    
19. LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION EVIDENT IN 181637Z TROPICS PASS. THE INITIAL
    
20. POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY
    
21. SATELLITE POSITION FIXES AND THE NOTED TROPICS IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
    
22. INTENSITY OF 75 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A
    
23. CONSENSUS OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES
    
24. AND EXTRAPOLATION OF THE RECENT INTENSITY TREND. TROPICAL CYCLONE
    
25. (TC) 02S HAS STEADILY WEAKENED OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS UNDER THE
    
26. INFLUENCE OF INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND PASSAGE
    
27. OVER COOLER WATER.
    
28. 
    
29. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
    
30. 
    
31. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE
    
32. SOUTHEAST TRANSITIONING TO STR BUILDING TO THE SOUTH
    
33. 
    
34. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
35.    PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
    
36.    KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS
    
37.    DEMS: T5.0 - 90 KTS
    
38.    FIMP: T4.5 - 77 KTS
    
39.    CIMSS SATCON: 60 KTS AT 181412Z
    
40.    CIMSS ADT: 59 KTS AT 181800Z
    
41. 
    
42. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
    
43.    VWS: 15-20 KTS
    
44.    SST: 25-26 CELSIUS
    
45.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
    
46. 
    
47. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
48.    INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
    
49.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
50.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
51. 
    
52. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
53. 
    
54. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
55. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
56. 
    
57. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 02S WILL TRACK WESTWARD TO
    
58. WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS DEVELOPING
    
59. SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH BECOMES THE PRIMARY STEERING
    
60. MECHANISM. STEADY WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS THE SYSTEM PASSES
    
61. OVER UNFAVORABLE (25-26C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND CONTENDS
    
62. WITH PERSISTENT MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ALTHOUGH
    
63. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE FROM ACCOMPANYING
    
64. DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, THE WIND FIELD WILL
    
65. TAKE A WHILE TO SUBSIDE LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
    
66. DISSIPATION BELOW THE WARNING THRESHOLD OF 35 KNOTS OCCURRING BY TAU
    
67. 96.
    
68. 
    
69. MODEL DISCUSSION: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, A POLEWARD OUTLIER
    
70. FROM THE PRIMARY MODEL GROUPING, NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK FORECAST
    
71. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
    
72. JTWC FORECAST LIES VERY SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS
    
73. WARNING. GIVEN THE FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD STEERING PATTERN THAT IS
    
74. DEVELOPING AND CONSISTENCY IN MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
    
75. RUNS, CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS HIGH. NUMERICAL MODELS
    
76. ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE INTENSITY FORECAST TREND,
    
77. DEPICTING STEADY FOLLOWED BY SLOWER WEAKENING TO DISSIPATION. THERE
    
78. IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST.
    
79. 
    
80. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
81.    TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
    
82.    TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
    
83.    INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
    
84.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: HIGH//
    
85. NNNN

复制代码

pocketbox

WTIO30 FMEE 190124
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 27/3/20242025
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BHEKI)

2.A POSITION 2024/11/19 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.9 S / 67.7 E
(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SEVEN    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.5/W 1.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 981 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 280 SW: 260 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SW: 175 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 90 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/11/19 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 65.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 280 SW: 260 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 0

24H: 2024/11/20 00 UTC: 19.0 S / 62.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 295 SW: 280 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 0

36H: 2024/11/20 12 UTC: 19.8 S / 59.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 250 SW: 240 NW: 0

48H: 2024/11/21 00 UTC: 20.9 S / 57.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 260 SW: 165 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 0 NW: 0

60H: 2024/11/21 12 UTC: 22.2 S / 55.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 260 SW: 165 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 0 NW: 0

72H: 2024/11/22 00 UTC: 23.0 S / 54.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 270 SW: 205 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 100 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/11/23 00 UTC: 25.0 S / 51.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DISSIPATING


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5+ CI=4.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, INTENSE CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR THE
SYSTEM'S CENTER, AND PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
MICROWAVE IMAGES GCOMW1-AMSR2 AT 2109Z AND F18-SSMIS AT 2256Z SHOW A
STILL FAIRLY SOLID AND WELL-ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CORE, DESPITE
SIGNIFICANT OFFSET BETWEEN THE CENTERS AT 37GHZ AND 89GHZ DUE TO
WESTERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS IN BOTH SHEAR
AND CURVED BAND PATTERNS GIVES A DT BETWEEN 3.5 AND 4.0. MET/PT IS AT
4.0. FT HAS BEEN SET AT 3.5+ BUT COULD BE CORRECTED TO 4.0 AFTERHAND
ON THE BASIS OF THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES WHICH SHOW A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT IN STRUCTURE. DUE TO INERTIA, THE CI NUMBER DROPS DOWN TO
4.5. OBJECTIVE CIMSS ESTIMATES VARY BETWEEN 65 AND 75 KT (1-MIN
WINDS). THESE VARIOUS INPUTS LEAD US TO MAINTAIN BHEKI AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE, WITH WINDS ESTIMATED AT 65 KT AT 00UTC.

BHEKI'S MOVEMENT HAS STARTED ACCELERATING WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARDS,
DRIVEN BY THE MID-TROPOSPHERE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE LOWERING OF THE
STEERING FLOW DUE TO THE SYSTEM'S WEAKENING SHOULD THEN MAKE IT DRIFT
ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MASCARENE HIGH. MOST MODELS AGREE
ABOUT A TRACK PASSING NORTH OF RODRIGUES AND SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF
REUNION. HOWEVER, THE DISTANCE TO THE MASCARENE ISLANDS IS STILL
UNCERTAIN.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, RAPID WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE THIS TUESDAY
UNDER THE INCREASING EFFECTS OF WIND SHEAR DRIVING DRY AIR INTO THE
SYSTEM'S CORE. FROM THIS TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARDS, BHEKI SHOULD BECOME A
REMNANT LOW GRADUALLY FILLING IN, WITH NO PARTICULAR POTENTIAL FOR
REDEVELOPMENT BECAUSE OF PERSISTENT WIND SHEAR. THE INTERACTION WITH
A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT COULD, HOWEVER,
MAINTAIN SOME NEAR-GALE OR EVEN GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. BHEKI SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS WEEKEND OFF THE SOUTHEAST OF
MADAGASCAR.

EXPECTED IMPACTS ON RODRIGUES :
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6M FROM TUESDAY UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY BETWEEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
- TEMPORARY HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY SHOWERS, WITH POSSIBLE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS NEARING 100 MM IN 6 TO 12 HOURS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
RODRIGUES INHABITANTS ARE STRONGLY ADVISED TO MONITOR THE SYSTEM'S
EVOLUTION CLOSELY, AND TO STAY INFORMED OF WEATHER FORECASTS ISSUED
BY MAURITIUS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

EXPECTED IMPACTS ON MAURITIUS :
- WAVES AROUND 4M FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO THURSDAY MORNING.
- WORSENING OF WEATHER CONDITIONS (WIND AND RAIN) POSSIBLE FROM
WEDNESDAY BUT STILL UNCERTAIN.
MAURITIUS INHABITANTS ARE INVITED TO STAY INFORMED OF WEATHER
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE MAURITIUS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

EXPECTED IMPACTS ON REUNION :
- WAVES APPROACHING 4M FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
- WORSENING OF WEATHER CONDITIONS (WIND AND RAIN) POSSIBLE FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT STILL UNCERTAIN.=

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：王慧  签发：吕心艳  2024 年 11 月 19 日 10 时
“贝基”向西偏南方向移动

时       间：19日08时（北京时）

海       域：南印度洋

命       名：“贝基”，BHEKI

中心位置：南纬17.9度、东经67.7度

强度等级：热带气旋

最大风力：12级（33米/秒，相当于我国的台风级）

中心气压：981百帕

参考位置：毛里求斯路易港东偏北方向约1100公里的洋面上

变化过程：过去24小时，“贝基”由15级减弱到12级

预报结论：“贝基”将以每小时15公里左右的速度向西偏南方向移动，强度逐渐减弱。


图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2024年11月19日08时15分）

pocketbox

WTIO30 FMEE 190749
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 28/3/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BHEKI)
2.A POSITION 2024/11/19 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.0 S / 67.1 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/W 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 981 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 50 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 390 SW: 285 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 130 SW: 165 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 80 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/11/19 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 64.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 370 SW: 260 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 65
24H: 2024/11/20 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 61.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 285 SW: 215 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 0
36H: 2024/11/20 18 UTC: 20.5 S / 58.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, REMNANT LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 250 SW: 165 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SW: 95 NW: 0
48H: 2024/11/21 06 UTC: 21.7 S / 56.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 250 SW: 140 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 0
60H: 2024/11/21 18 UTC: 22.8 S / 54.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 305 SW: 205 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 0
72H: 2024/11/22 06 UTC: 23.5 S / 53.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 285 SW: 260 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 0 NW: 0
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/11/23 06 UTC: 25.7 S / 50.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DISSIPATING
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5 CI=4.0+
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED UP, ALTHOUGH SOME
CONVECTIVE BURSTS HAVE PERSISTED OVER THE LAST HOUR IN THE SYSTEM'S
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THIS SIGN OF WEAKENING IS UNDOUBTEDLY DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF MODERATE WEST-SOUTH-WEST WINDSHEAR (ACCORDING TO CIMSS
DATA), GRADUALLY BUILDING UP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-SOUTH-WEST.
HOWEVER, THE MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR SEEMS TO BE CONTRIBUTING MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY TO THIS WEAKENING, ESTIMATED AT 15/20KT FROM THE WEST. THE
ABSENCE OF RECENT MICROWAVE DATA MAKES IT IMPOSSIBLE TO ESTIMATE THE
STRENGTH OF THE INNER CONVECTIVE WALL, BUT THE SSMIS-F17 FROM 0140Z
ALREADY SUGGESTS A WEAKENING OF THE INNER CONVECTIVE RING IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUARTER. THE TOTAL ASCAT-B PASS AT 0456Z NOT ONLY
ENABLED US TO POSITION THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER, BUT ALSO TO ESTIMATE THE
WIND INTENSITY AT 60KT. THIS VALUE IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK'S SUBJECTIVE
ESTIMATE, AND THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DATA, NOTABLY SATCON AND AIDT. AS A
RESULT, THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM AT
06UTC.
BHEKI CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARDS AT A GOOD PACE, DRIVEN
BY THE MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE OF SUBTROPICAL AIR. AS THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS, THE STEERING FLOW IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN, ALLOWING IT TO MOVE
ONTO THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE MASCAREIGNES RIDGE. THE VARIOUS MODELS
ARE BROADLY IN AGREEMENT ON A TRACK PASSING TO THE NORTH OF RODRIGUES
AND THEN SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF REUNION. HOWEVER, CAUTION IS STILL
CALLED FOR, AS THE DISTANCES OVER THE MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN (THE EUROPEAN DETERMINISTIC MODEL, FOR EXAMPLE, NOW
SUGGESTS A MORE NORTHERLY PASSAGE THAN INITIALLY FORECAST).
IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, A RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THIS TUESDAY UNDER
THE INCREASING EFFECTS OF WINDSHEAR, ALLOWING THE SURROUNDING DRY AIR
TO PENETRATE, THUS DISPLACING THE CONVECTIVE MASSES OFF THE MAIN
CIRCULATION. CONSEQUENTLY, FROM THIS EVENING ONWARDS, BHEKI SHOULD
EVOLVE INTO A RESIDUAL SYSTEM IN THE PROCESS OF FILLING IN, WITH NO
MARKED POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT, IN A CONTEXT THAT REMAINS VERY
SHEARED AND DRY. INTERACTION WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT COULD, HOWEVER, KEEP IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE
GALE AND NEAR GALE WIND FORCES. BHEKI SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS WEEKEND IN
SOUTH-EAST MADAGASCAR.
IMPACTS EXPECTED ON RODRIGUES:
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6M UNDERWAY UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY BETWEEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
- TEMPORARILY HEAVY RAINSTORMS, WITH POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS CLOSE TO
100 MM MAXIMUM IN 24 HOURS BETWEEN TODAY AND TOMORROW MORNING.
RODRIGUES RESIDENTS ARE STRONGLY ADVISED TO MONITOR THE SYSTEM
CLOSELY AND TO KEEP INFORMED OF WEATHER FORECASTS THROUGH THE
MAURITIAN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES.
EXPECTED IMPACT ON MAURITIUS :
- WAVES AROUND 4M BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY
MORNING.
- RISK OF DETERIORATION IN TERMS OF WIND AND RAIN POSSIBLE FROM
WEDNESDAY BUT STILL UNCERTAIN.
RESIDENTS OF MAURITIUS ARE INVITED TO KEEP INFORMED OF THE WEATHER
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE MAURITIUS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
EXPECTED IMPACT ON REUNION :
- WAVES APPROACHING 4M ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
- RISK OF DETERIORATION IN TERMS OF WIND AND RAIN POSSIBLE BUT STILL
UNCERTAIN.

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：王慧  签发：许映龙  2024 年 11 月 19 日 18 时
“贝基”向西偏南方向移动

时       间：19日14时（北京时）

海       域：南印度洋

命       名：“贝基”，BHEKI

中心位置：南纬18.0度、东经67.1度

强度等级：热带气旋

最大风力：12级（33米/秒，相当于我国的台风级）

中心气压：981百帕

参考位置：毛里求斯路易港东偏北方向约1040公里的洋面上

变化过程：过去24小时，“贝基”由15级减弱到12级

预报结论：“贝基”将以每小时10-15公里的速度向西偏南方向快速移动，强度逐渐减弱。


图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2024年11月19日14时15分）

pocketbox

WTXS31 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BHEKI) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BHEKI) WARNING NR 011   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   190600Z --- NEAR 18.0S 67.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 67.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z --- 18.5S 64.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 19.0S 61.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z --- 19.9S 59.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z --- 21.0S 57.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z --- 23.2S 54.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 66.4E.
19NOV24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BHEKI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 564
NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 190600Z IS 980 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
192100Z AND 200900Z.
//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 190900
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BHEKI) WARNING NR
   
4. 011//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 18.0S 67.0E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 70 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 564 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 32 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
    
18. MAINTAINED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL CLOUD COVER THAT HAS
    
19. FORMED A RAGGED 20 BY 28 NM OBLONG EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
    
20. PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
    
21. OF 70 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON OVERALL
    
22. ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY  DVORAK AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND
    
23. REFLECTS THE SUSTAINED 6-HR CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AND CONSISTENT
    
24. WITH THE PRESENCE OF AN EYE FEATURE. ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL
    
25. ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG VENTILATION OFFSET BY COOL WATERS AND
    
26. MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
    
27. 
    
28. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
    
29. 
    
30. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH.
    
31. 
    
32. 
    
33. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
34.    PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
    
35.    KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS
    
36.    CIMSS SATCON: 73 KTS AT 190124Z
    
37.    CIMSS ADT: 77 KTS AT 190300Z
    
38. 
    
39. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
    
40.    VWS: 15-20 KTS
    
41.    SST: 25-26 CELSIUS
    
42.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
    
43. 
    
44. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
45.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
46.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
47.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
48. 
    
49. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
50. 
    
51. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
52. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
53. 
    
54. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 02S WILL TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
    
55. STR TO THE SOUTH UP TO TAU 48, THEN SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT BEGINS TO
    
56. ROUND THE WESTERN RIM OF THE STR. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME
    
57. UNSTABLE DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND COOL (25-26C) SST, OFFSET ONLY
    
58. BY THE STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LEADING TO A GRADUAL WEAKENING AND
    
59. EVENTUAL DISSIPATION BY TAU 72 AFTER IT PASSES LA REUNION.
    
60. 
    
61. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT
    
62. WITH AN EVEN AND GRADUAL SPREAD TO 190NM BY TAU 72, LENDING MEDIUM
    
63. CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
    
64. 
    
65. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
66.    TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
    
67.    INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
    
68. NNNN

复制代码

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 191242
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 29/3/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BHEKI)

2.A POSITION 2024/11/19 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.2 S / 66.3 E
(EIGHTEEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SIX    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/W 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 390 SW: 285 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 130 SW: 165 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 80 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/11/20 00 UTC: 19.2 S / 62.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 345 SW: 230 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SW: 140 NW: 0

24H: 2024/11/20 12 UTC: 19.5 S / 59.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 250 SW: 205 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 0

36H: 2024/11/21 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 57.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 100 NW: 0

48H: 2024/11/21 12 UTC: 22.1 S / 55.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 240 SW: 120 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 95 NW: 0

60H: 2024/11/22 00 UTC: 22.9 S / 53.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 240 SW: 155 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 0

72H: 2024/11/22 12 UTC: 24.0 S / 52.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SW: 130 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 100 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/11/23 12 UTC: 26.9 S / 51.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5 CI=4.0-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF
RESISTANCE, WITH PEAKS TEMPORARILY COOLING IN THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN SEMICIRCLES, CURVING SLIGHTLY AROUND A HOT SPOT THAT APPEARED
RAPIDLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE 0933 UTC GCOM-W1 AMSR2 MICROWAVE
PASS CONFIRM THAT THE INNER CONVECTION RING IS HOLDING UP WELL,
ALTHOUGH IT IS ERODING IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO MODERATE
WESTERLY WIND SHEAR ESTIMATED AT 20/25KT IN THE MID - TROPOSPHERE.
TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THESE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA, AS WELL AS THE
LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSES OF THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY (DPRINT/SATCON),
BHEKI REMAINS CLASSIFIED AS A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM AT 55KT.

BHEKI CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARDS AT A GOOD PACE, DRIVEN
BY THE MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE. AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS, THE STEERING
FLOW IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN, ALLOWING IT TO MOVE ONTO THE NORTHERN SIDE
OF THE MASCAREIGNES RIDGE. THE VARIOUS MODELS AGREE ON A TRACK
PASSING TO THE NORTH OF RODRIGUES AND THEN SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF
THE MASCAREIGNES ARCHIPELAGO. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY PERSIST AS TO THE
DISTANCES OVER THE ISLANDS OF THE MASCAREIGNES ARCHIPELGO. IN FACT,
THE LATEST OUTPUTS FROM THE AROME AND CEPMMT MODELS HAVE RAISED
BHEKI'S TRACK A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN LAST FORECAST. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD FINALLY TURN SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST AT THE END OF THE WEEK, AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, A SHORT-TERM WEAKENING IS MAINTAINED UNDER THE
INCREASING EFFECTS OF WIND SHEAR ALOFT, ALLOWING DRY AIR TO PENETRATE
TO THE HEART OF THE SYSTEM. THIS CONTEXT WILL HAVE THE EFFECT OF
SHIFTING THE CONVECTIVE MASSES OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE MAIN
CIRCULATION. IN ADDITION, BHEKI IS NOW EVOLVING OVER COLDER SURFACE
WATERS. AS A RESULT, FROM THIS EVENING ONWARDS, BHEKI SHOULD WEAKEN,
FIRST AS A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM, THEN TOMORROW AS A SUBSIDING
LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH NO MARKED POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT,
IN A CONTEXT THAT REMAINS VERY UNFAVORABLE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED,
HOWEVER, THAT THE SYSTEM'S INTERACTION WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH,
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, COULD MAINTAIN
NEAR GALE AND GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. BHEKI
SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS WEEKEND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE MALAGASY COAST.


IMPACTS EXPECTED ON RODRIGUES:
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6M UNDERWAY UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY BETWEEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
- TEMPORARILY HEAVY RAINSTORMS, WITH POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS CLOSE TO
100 MM MAXIMUM IN 24 HOURS BETWEEN TODAY AND TOMORROW MORNING.
RODRIGUES RESIDENTS ARE STRONGLY ADVISED TO MONITOR THE SYSTEM
CLOSELY AND TO KEEP INFORMED OF WEATHER FORECASTS THROUGH THE
MAURITIAN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES.

EXPECTED IMPACT ON MAURITIUS :
- WAVES AROUND 4M BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY MORNING.
- RISK OF DETERIORATION IN TERMS OF WIND AND RAIN POSSIBLE FROM
WEDNESDAY BUT STILL UNCERTAIN.
RESIDENTS OF MAURITIUS ARE INVITED TO KEEP INFORMED OF THE WEATHER
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE MAURITIUS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

EXPECTED IMPACT ON REUNION :
- WAVES APPROACHING 4M ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
- RISK OF DETERIORATION IN TERMS OF WIND AND RAIN POSSIBLE BUT STILL
UNCERTAIN.=