马达加斯加以南强热带气旋第5号“迪克莱迪”(08U/07S.Dikeledi) - 有记载以来纬度最南的ITC，12日登陆马达加斯加北部，13日登陆莫桑比克 - JTWC:100KT

pocketbox

WTIO30 FMEE 130651
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 26/5/20242025
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION 2025/01/13 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.2 S / 41.5 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 979 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 17 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 35 SW: 40 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/13 18 UTC: 15.9 S / 40.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 155 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 45

24H: 2025/01/14 06 UTC: 17.3 S / 39.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 45

36H: 2025/01/14 18 UTC: 19.1 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2025/01/15 06 UTC: 21.4 S / 40.4 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

60H: 2025/01/15 18 UTC: 24.2 S / 41.3 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 230 SW: 175 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

72H: 2025/01/16 06 UTC: 26.5 S / 42.9 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 250 SW: 175 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/01/17 06 UTC: 30.9 S / 48.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 295 SW: 185 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 120 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

120H: 2025/01/18 06 UTC: 33.5 S / 57.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 335 SW: 195 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 175 SW: 130 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 80 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED NORTH OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER, AS SHOWN BY THE MICROWAVE PASS SSMIS-F17 AT 0338Z.
THE LATTER SHOWS A WELL-FORMED EYE AT 85GHZ, SHOWING SOLID INTERNAL
ORGANIZATION, WITH CONVECTION MUCH MORE INTENSE IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS BASED ON THIS ANALYSIS, AND ON
A BLEND OF OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE GUIDANCE, PUTTING DIKEDELI AT THE
MINIMUM STAGE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER, THIS VALUE APPEARS TO
BE SLIGHTLY OVERESTIMATED IN VIEW OF THE ASCAT-B PASS AT 0559Z, WHICH
FELL SHORTLY AFTER ANALISIS TIME. IN FACT, THE ASCAT GAVE A DEBIASED
MAXIMUM INTENSITY CLOSER TO 60KT. THIS INFORMATION (POSITION / WIND
EXTENSIONS / INTENSITY) WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY IN THE BESTRACK
TRACK.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE MOZAMBICAN
COAST TODAY ON A WEST-SOUTH-WEST TRACK. THE CURRENT FORECAST DOES NOT
FORESEE A LANDFALL OVER THE PROVINCE OF NAMPULA, BUT THIS OPTION IS
NOT TOTALLY EXCLUDED, GIVEN THE DISPERSION OF GUIDANCE AT +12/18H.
FROM TUESDAY, DIKEDELI SHOULD CURVE ITS TRACK TEMPORARILY TO THE
SOUTH AND THEN TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST, CARRIED BY THE NORTHERLY FLOW
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BASIN.
FROM WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY, THE SYSTEM COULD APPROACH THE MALAGASY
COAST, GUIDED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SET UP BY THE MID
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND A DISTANT UPPER TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. GUIDANCE
REMAINS WIDELY DISPERSED AT THESE SCALES, BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE FORECASTING THE SYSTEM TO TRANSIT THROUGH THE
CHANNEL, AND ARE NOT CURRENTLY FORECASTING ANY LANDFALL ON THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR. THE RSMC FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE DIFFERENT GUIDANCE AVAILABLE.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, WITH VERY GOOD OCEAN HEAT POTENTIAL DESPITE
PERSISTENT MODERATE UPPER VWS, DIKELEDI SHOULD BENEFIT FROM FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING AS THE DAYS GO BY. HOWEVER, THE
OHC IS SET TO DECREASE PROGRESSIVELY FROM TOMORROW ONWARDS, ALTHOUGH
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY, WHICH
COULD BRING IT TO THE STAGE OF AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER,
IF IT INTERACTS WITH THE AFRICAN COAST, INTENSIFICATION WILL BE
SLOWER. IN ADDITION, A POSSIBLE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE DURING ITS
MATURE PHASE COULD CAUSE ITS INTENSITY TO FLUCTUATE.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

NORTHWEST MADAGASCAR:
- HEAVY RAINS STILL EXPECTED LOCALLY ALONG THE COAST OF MAHAJANGA AND
ANTISRANANA PROVINCES, OF THE ORDER OF 100-150 MM (LOC 150-200 MM
OVER THE RELIEF)

MOZAMBIQUE (COAST OF NAMPULA PROVINCE):
- RISK OF STORM FORCE WIND OR EVEN HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE
FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY MORNING.
- HEAVY TO LOCALLY TORRENTIAL RAIN MONDAY TO TUESDAY. CUMULATIVE
RAINFALL OF 100-150MM IN 24 HOURS, OR 200-300MM LOCALLY ALONG THE
COAST.
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6 METRES POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND UNTIL TUESDAY
MORNING.

SOUTH-WEST MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE) - FROM WEDNESDAY:
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6 METRES POSSIBLE

JUAN DE NOVA MONDAY AND TUESDAY:
- HEAVY RAINS - 100MM IN 24 HOURS.
- WAVES OF 4M POSSIBLE.

EUROPA FROM WEDNESDAY :
- GALE TO STORM POSSIBLE, HURRICANE FORCE WINDS NOT EXCLUDED.
- HEAVY RAIN (100-150MM CUMULATIVE).
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6 METERS POSSIBLE.=

pocketbox

WTXS31 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 008   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   130600Z --- NEAR 14.8S 41.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 41.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z --- 15.7S 39.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z --- 16.9S 39.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z --- 18.7S 39.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z --- 20.9S 39.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z --- 23.3S 41.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z --- 25.5S 42.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z --- 28.9S 46.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 40.8E.
13JAN25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
26 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NACALA, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 130600Z IS 982 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
132100Z AND 140900Z.//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 130900
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING
   
4. NR 008//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 14.8S 41.1E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 70 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 26 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NACALA, MOZAMBIQUE
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 16 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 30 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
18. CYCLONE (TC) 07S RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE.
    
19. LOW-LEVEL CLOUD BANDING IS VISIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
    
20. SYSTEM DUE TO MODERATE (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) FROM THE
    
21. SOUTH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS RADIAL OUTFLOW, BUT THE
    
22. UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS STRONGEST EQUATORWARD AND WESTWARD OF THE
    
23. LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
    
24. HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 130601Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGERY REVEALING
    
25. THE CIRCULATION CENTER, ACCOMPANIED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED ANIMATED
    
26. MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH
    
27. CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE FIXES BELOW, GIVEN
    
28. THAT THE CENTER OF THE ASCAT PASS WAS RAIN-FLAGGED UNDER THE DEEP
    
29. CONVECTION.
    
30. 
    
31. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 130601Z SCATTEROMETER DATA
    
32. 
    
33. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
    
34. SOUTHEAST
    
35. 
    
36. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
37.    PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
    
38.    KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
    
39.    CIMSS SATCON: 67 KTS AT 130630Z
    
40.    CIMSS ADT: 79 KTS AT 130600Z
    
41.    CIMSS AIDT: 84 KTS AT 130630Z
    
42.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 62 KTS AT 130630Z
    
43. 
    
44. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
    
45.    VWS: 10-15 KTS
    
46.    SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
    
47.    OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL
    
48. 
    
49. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
50.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
51.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
52.    INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
    
53. 
    
54. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
55. 
    
56. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: TC 07S HAS TRACKED FARTHER WEST THAN
    
57. WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED AND IS NOW ANTICIPATED TO MAKE LANDFALL
    
58. WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE TOPOGRAPHIC INTERACTION IN THE FIRST
    
59. 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST WILL LEAD TO WEAKENING BEFORE THE SYSTEM
    
60. COMES BACK OVER WATER.
    
61. 
    
62. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 08S WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN THE VICINITY OF
    
63. NACALA, MOZAMBIQUE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, AND REMAIN OVER LAND
    
64. UNTIL TAU 24. THE TOPOGRAPHIC INFLUENCE WILL CAUSE SLIGHT
    
65. WEAKENING, HOWEVER, THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOIST
    
66. AND UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL IMPROVE. AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES OVER
    
67. THE RIDGE AXIS BETWEEN TAU 24-48, A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL WILL
    
68. DEVELOP, ENHANCING THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION AS THE COL REGION
    
69. TO THE SOUTH PROPAGATES EASTWARD. VWS WILL DECREASE AS THE SYSTEM
    
70. MOVES SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM LAND, LEADING TO A PEAK
    
71. INTENSITY OF 90KTS BY TAU 72. AROUND TAU 96-120, AN APPROACHING
    
72. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL INITIATE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION LEADING
    
73. TO GRADUAL WEAKENING TO 70KTS AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES FULLY
    
74. EXTRATROPICAL.
    
75. 
    
76. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE LEADS
    
77. TO LOW CONFIDENCE AS THE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE GONE BACK AND FORTH
    
78. ON WHETHER OR NOT THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER WATER OR OVER LAND.
    
79. THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE OF COAMPS-TC, GEFS, AND ECENS HAVE ALL
    
80. STRONGLY INDICATED A TRACK LYING OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, WHICH
    
81. HAVE ALL PROVEN NOT TO PLAY OUT. THE MOST RECENT RUNS OF ALL OF THE
    
82. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REPRESENT APPROXIMATELY 50 PERCENT OF MEMBERS
    
83. PASSING OVER LAND. GFS HAS BEEN THE STANDOUT PERFORMER FORECASTING
    
84. CONSISTENTLY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL PASS OVER MOZAMBIQUE, AND THE
    
85. JTWC FORECAST TRACK NOW FAVORS GFS. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS
    
86. HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EARLY-TERM WEAKENING IN THE FORECAST AND
    
87. SHOWS A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS BETWEEN A PEAK AS HIGH AS 120KTS
    
88. (HWRF) AND AS LOW AS 70KTS (GFS).
    
89. 
    
90. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
91.    TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
    
92.    TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
    
93.    INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW
    
94.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
    
95. NNNN

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pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：柳龙生  签发：许映龙  2025 年 01 月 13 日 18 时
“迪克莱迪”将登陆或擦过莫桑比克东北部

时       间：13日14时（北京时）

海       域：西南印度洋

命       名：“迪克莱迪”，DIKELEDI

中心位置：南纬15.2度、东经41.5度

强度等级：热带气旋

最大风力：12级（35米/秒，相当于我国的台风级）

中心气压：975百帕

参考位置：莫桑比克德尔加杜角省彭巴南偏东方向约270公里的洋面上

变化过程：过去24小时，“迪克莱迪”强度维持不变

预报结论：“迪克莱迪”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向西偏南方向移动，强度逐渐增强。即将于今天夜间登陆或擦过莫桑比克东北部沿海（42-48m/s，14-15级），之后逐渐转向南偏东方向移动，强度还将有所加强，并向马达加斯加西南部海面靠近。受其影响，13-17日，莫桑比克海峡、莫桑比克东北部沿海将有7-9级大风，部分地区风力可达10-12级，“迪克莱迪”中心经过的附近海域或地区风力可达13-15级、阵风16-17级。莫桑比克东北部沿海、马达加斯加等地部分地区将有中到大雨，其中莫桑比克东北部沿海、马达加斯加中部和西北部等地部分地区将有暴雨或大暴雨（80-150），莫桑比克东北部沿海局地将有特大暴雨（250-400mm）。


图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年01月13日14时00分）


图2 西南印度洋热带气旋“迪克莱迪”未来96小时路径概率预报图

pocketbox

WTIO30 FMEE 131241
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 27/5/20242025
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION 2025/01/13 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.2 S / 40.6 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 971 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 17 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 85 SW: 0 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 0 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/14 00 UTC: 16.4 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 0 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2025/01/14 12 UTC: 18.1 S / 39.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 165 SW: 110 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 0 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 0 NW: 0

36H: 2025/01/15 00 UTC: 20.1 S / 40.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 220 SW: 120 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SW: 95 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 0 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 0 NW: 0

48H: 2025/01/15 12 UTC: 22.7 S / 41.4 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 220 SW: 130 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 30

60H: 2025/01/16 00 UTC: 25.4 S / 42.1 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 30 NW: 30

72H: 2025/01/16 12 UTC: 27.5 S / 44.0 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 30 NW: 30

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/01/17 12 UTC: 31.5 S / 50.6 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 130 SW: 240 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 65 SW: 95 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

120H: 2025/01/18 12 UTC: 33.0 S / 57.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 335 SW: 195 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 175 SW: 130 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 80 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, DIKEDELI'S CLOUD PATTERN IMPROVED FURTHER
UNTIL 09UTC, WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACCOMPANIED BY NUMEROUS
LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. A
HOT SPOT WITHIN THIS STRUCTURE EVEN EMERGED SHORTLY BEFORE 0915UTC AS
IT APPROACHED MOZAMBIQUE. DIKEDELI LANDED JUST SOUTH OF ILHA DE
MOCAMBIQUE IN NAMPULA PROVINCE AROUND 1200UTC. THE MICROWAVE PASS OF
THE GCOM-W - AMSR2 FROM 1109Z SHOWS A SLIGHT TILT OF THE STRUCTURE ON
THE VERTICAL, WHICH CAN MISLEAD THE ESTIMATION OF THE POSITION BASED
ONLY ON THE CLASSIC SATELLITE IMAGE. IT ALSO SHOWS A CLEAR
IMPROVEMENT IN THE EYE WALL AT 85GHZ. THE RSMC SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATE AT THE TIME OF LANDING POINTS TO AN INTENSITY OF 75KT, ALSO
VERY CLOSE TO THE ESTIMATES OF AMERICAN AGENCIES AND OBJECTIVE CIMSS
DATA.

THE SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OVER MOZAMBIQUE'S
LANDMASS, MOVING SOUTHWARDS OVERNIGHT AND RE-EMERGING IN THE CHANNEL
ON TUESDAY MORNING, CARRIED BY THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE MID-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE BASIN. FROM
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY, THE SYSTEM COULD APPROACH THE MALAGASY COAST,
GUIDED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SET UP BY THE
MID-TROPICAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND A DISTANT TROUGH TO THE
SOUTH. GUIDANCES REMAIN WIDELY DISPERSED AT THESE TIMES, BUT THE VAST
MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE FORECAST MEMBERS HAVE THE SYSTEM TRANSITING THE
CHANNEL, AND DO NOT CURRENTLY FORESEE ANY POSSIBLE LANDFALL ON THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE MAIN ISLAND. HOWEVER, THE PRESENT FORECAST BRINGS
THE SYSTEM CLOSER TO MADAGASCAR THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE RSMC
FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE SYSTEMS
AVAILABLE, AND THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE SYSTEM'S FINAL
TRACK.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, DIKEDELI WILL WEAKEN IN THE SHORT TERM THROUGH
INTERACTION WITH THE MOZAMBICAN LANDS. HOWEVER, AS ITS TERRESTRIAL
EXPERIENCE IS LIMITED IN TIME (NO MORE THAN 12 HOURS), DIKEDELI
SHOULD MAINTAIN ITS SOLID INTERNAL CONSTITUTION. IT SHOULD REGAIN A
SATISFACTORY OCEANIC ENERGY POTENTIAL WHEN IT HEADS OUT TO SEA ON
TUESDAY MORNING, COUPLED WITH GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DESPITE
PERSISTENT ALTITUDE VWS. IT SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, ONCE AGAIN REACHING TROPICAL
CYCLONE STATUS ON TUESDAY AND PROBABLY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
STATUS ON WEDNESDAY, DESPITE SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE OCEAN POTENTIAL
THEREAFTER. MOREOVER, DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM, A
POSSIBLE EYEWALL REPLACMENT CYCLE DURING ITS MATURE PHASE COULD CAUSE
ITS INTENSITY TO FLUCTUATE.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

MOZAMBIQUE (NAMPULA / ZAMBEZIA PROVINCE COASTLINE):
- STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AT IMPACT
LEVEL, THEN STORM FORCE OVERNIGHT UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING.
- HEAVY TO LOCALLY TORRENTIAL RAIN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 100-150MM IN 24HRS, OR EVEN 200-250MM LOCALLY ALONG THE
COAST.
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6M ON MONDAY AND UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING. SURGE OF
AROUND 1M50 TO 2M SOUTH OF THE POINT OF IMPACT, BETWEEN THE TOWNS OF
QUINGA AND NORTH ANGOCHE.

SOUTH-WEST MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE) - FROM WEDNESDAY:
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6M LIKELY.

JUAN DE NOVA MONDAY AND TUESDAY:
- HEAVY RAIN - 100MM CUMULATIVE RAINFALL IN 24H.
- WAVES OF 4M POSSIBLE.

EUROPA FROM WEDNESDAY :
- GALES TO STORMS LIKELY, HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS NOT RULED OUT A
PRIORI.
- HEAVY RAIN (100-150MM CUMULATIVE).
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6M LIKELY.=

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 131828
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 28/5/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION 2025/01/13 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.7 S / 40.1 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 24 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 85 SW: 45 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/14 06 UTC: 17.0 S / 39.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 175 SW: 110 NW: 55
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 35
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2025/01/14 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 205 SW: 130 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 30 NW: 30

36H: 2025/01/15 06 UTC: 21.2 S / 40.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 270 SW: 150 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

48H: 2025/01/15 18 UTC: 24.1 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 185 SW: 130 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2025/01/16 06 UTC: 26.6 S / 43.5 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 85 SW: 100 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

72H: 2025/01/16 18 UTC: 28.8 S / 45.8 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 85 SW: 100 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/01/17 18 UTC: 31.1 S / 54.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 140 SW: 220 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 75 SW: 95 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

120H: 2025/01/18 18 UTC: 31.4 S / 57.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 150 SW: 175 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, DIKEDELI HAS BEEN EVOLVING OVER LAND IN NAMPULA
PROVINCE, MOZAMBIQUE. ITS CLOUD CONFIGURATION HAS LOGICALLY
DETERIORATED, WITH LESS COLD CLOUD TOPS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS
SIGNIFICANT WITH NUMEROUS WIND IMPACTS IN THE PROVINCES. MAXIMUM
WINDS ESTIMATED BY RSMC ARE IN THE 55KT RANGE.

THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS OVER THE
MOZAMBICAN LANDMASS, MOVING SOUTHWARDS OVERNIGHT AND RE-EMERGING
IN THE CHANNEL ON TUESDAY MORNING, CARRIED BY THE NORTHERLY FLOW
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MID-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE BASIN. FROM
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY, THE SYSTEM COULD MOVE CLOSER TO THE
MADAGASCAN COAST, GUIDED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SET
UP BY THE MID-TROPICAL RIDGE AND A DISTANT TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. THE
VAST MAJORITY OF MODELS HAVE THE SYSTEM TRANSITING THROUGH THE
CHANNEL, AND FOR THE MOMENT DO NOT FORECAST A POSSIBLE LANDFALL ON
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE GRANDE ILE. THE RSMC PREDICTION IS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE SYSTEMS AVAILABLE, AND THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE SYSTEM'S FINAL TRAJECTORY.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, DIKEDELI WILL WEAKEN IN THE SHORT TERM THROUGH
INTERACTION WITH THE MOZAMBICAN LANDS. HOWEVER, AS ITS TERRESTRIAL
EXPERIENCE IS LIMITED IN TIME (NO MORE THAN 12 HOURS), DIKEDELI SHOULD
MAINTAIN ITS SOLID INTERNAL CONSTITUTION. IT SHOULD REGAIN A
SATISFACTORY OCEANIC ENERGY POTENTIAL WHEN IT HEADS OUT TO SEA ON
TUESDAY MORNING, COUPLED WITH GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DESPITE
PERSISTENT ALTITUDE VWS. IT SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, ONCE AGAIN REACHING TROPICAL
CYCLONE STATUS ON TUESDAY AND PROBABLY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
STATUS ON WEDNESDAY, DESPITE SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE OCEAN POTENTIAL
THEREAFTER. MOREOVER, DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM, A
POSSIBLE EYEWALL REPLACMENT CYCLE DURING ITS MATURE PHASE COULD
CAUSE ITS INTENSITY TO FLUCTUATE.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

MOZAMBIQUE (NAMPULA / ZAMBEZIA PROVINCE COASTLINE):
- STORM FORCE OVERNIGHT UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING.
- HEAVY TO LOCALLY TORRENTIAL RAIN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 100-150MM IN 24HRS, OR EVEN 200-250MM LOCALLY ALONG THE COAST.
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6M UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING. SURGE OF AROUND 1M50 TO 2M
SOUTH OF THE POINT OF IMPACT, BETWEEN THE TOWNS OF QUINGA AND NORTH
ANGOCHE.

SOUTH-WEST MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE) - FROM WEDNESDAY:
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6M LIKELY.

JUAN DE NOVA MONDAY AND TUESDAY:
- HEAVY RAIN - 100MM CUMULATIVE RAINFALL IN 24H.
- WAVES OF 4M POSSIBLE.

EUROPA FROM WEDNESDAY :
- GALES TO STORMS LIKELY, HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS NOT RULED OUT A PRIORI.
- HEAVY RAIN (100-150MM CUMULATIVE).
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6M LIKELY.

ygsj24

WTXS31 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 009   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   131800Z --- NEAR 15.5S 40.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 40.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z --- 16.8S 39.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z --- 18.6S 39.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z --- 21.0S 40.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z --- 23.7S 41.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z --- 28.4S 45.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z --- 30.9S 51.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z --- 31.8S 56.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 40.1E.
13JAN25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
61 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NACALA, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 131800Z IS 981 MB.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z AND 142100Z.//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 132100
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING
   
4. NR 009//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 15.5S 40.2E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 70 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 61 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NACALA,
    
13. MOZAMBIQUE
    
14.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KTS
    
15.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: OVER LAND
    
16. 
    
17. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
18. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
19. CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) AS A VERY COMPACT SYSTEM JUST ONSHORE OF THE
    
20. COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE. AN EYE BREIFLY APPEARED AROUND 131200Z AS 07S
    
21. MADE LANDFALL NEAR THE TOWN OF CALAJULO. THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS
    
22. QUICKLY ERODED SINCE MAKING LANDFALL, INITIATING A BRIEF RAPID
    
23. WEAKENING TREND. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 07S IS IN AN
    
24. UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
    
25. ALOFT AND LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GREATLY OFFSET BY
    
26. THE TERRAIN INTERACTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
    
27. CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ANIMATED EIR AND A 131828Z GMI 37 GHZ
    
28. MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING THE LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE. THE INITIAL
    
29. INTENSITY OF 70 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON SPARSE
    
30. CIMSS INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW AND THE WEAKENING TREND OVER
    
31. LAND.
    
32. 
    
33. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
    
34. 
    
35. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
    
36. RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
    
37. 
    
38. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
39.    PGTW: NO CURRENT ESTIMATE
    
40.    CIMSS DPRINT: 61 KTS AT 131730Z
    
41.    CIMSS MW SOUNDERS: 79 KTS AT 131638Z
    
42. 
    
43. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
    
44.    VWS: 10-15 KTS
    
45.    SST: OVER LAND
    
46.    OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD
    
47.    OTHER FACTORS: TERRAIN INTERACTION WITH MOZAMBIQUE
    
48. 
    
49. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
50.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
51.    INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW
    
52.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
53. 
    
54. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
55. 
    
56. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
57. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
58. 
    
59. FORECAST DISCUSSION: 07S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD, ALONG THE
    
60. WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER
    
61. TAU 48, 07S WILL BEGIN TO TRACK MORE SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE
    
62. RIDGE AXIS AND HEADS TOWARD THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND UPPER-LEVEL
    
63. JET. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN AROUND TAU 96
    
64. WITH COMPLETION AROUND TAU 120, AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
    
65. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES. REGARDING INTENSITY, 07S IS FORECAST
    
66. TO CONTINUE WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO
    
67. TRAVERSE OVER EASTERN MOZAMBIQUE. AFTER TAU 12, TERRAIN INTERACTION
    
68. WILL CEASE AND THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MUCH MORE FAVORABLE. LOW
    
69. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND IMPROVING
    
70. POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY TO AROUND
    
71. 90 KTS AT TAU 48. A PEAK INTENSITY MAY OCCUR NEAR TAU 60 (NOT
    
72. PICTURED IN WARNING GRAPHIC DUE TO TEMPORAL LIMITATIONS). STARTING
    
73. AT TAU 72, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEGINS TO RISE OVER 20 KTS AND SEA
    
74. SURFACE TEMPERATURES START TO DROP. THIS WILL CAUSE 07S TO WEAKEN
    
75. THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS CONDITIONS WILL
    
76. ONLY WORSEN. INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 45 KTS AS THE
    
77. SYSTEM FULLY TRANSITIONS INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.
    
78. 
    
79. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
    
80. REGARDING THE TRACK OF 07S THOUGH TAU 72 WITH A 70 NM CROSS-TRACK
    
81. SPREAD AT THAT TIME. AFTER TAU 72, ALONG TRACK SPREAD INCREASES DUE
    
82. TO DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE VORTEX INTERACTS WITH THE JET. THE JTWC
    
83. TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
    
84. THROUGH TAU 72 AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. INTENSITY GUIDANCE
    
85. IS IN MODERATE AGREEMENT WITH A SPLIT BETWEEN THE MESOSCALE MODELS
    
86. AND GLOBAL MODELS. MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE INTENSIFICATION
    
87. TREND THOUGH TAU 60. HWRF IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE, WITH A PEAK
    
88. INTENSITY OF AROUND 115 KTS WHILE HAFS-A AND COAMPS-TC SUGGEST A
    
89. PEAK OF 90-95 KTS. GFS DIFFERS CONSIDERABLY WITH A 60 KNOT
    
90. INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 96. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED
    
91. CLOSER TO THE MESOSCALE MODELS DUE TO THE EXPECTED FAVORABLE
    
92. ENVIRONMENT WITH OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
    
93. 
    
94. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
95.    TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
    
96.    TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
    
97.    INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
    
98.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
    
99. NNNN

复制代码

pocketbox

WTIO30 FMEE 140037
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 29/5/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION 2025/01/14 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.2 S / 39.9 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 85 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 30 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 35 SW: 40 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/14 12 UTC: 18.0 S / 39.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 165 SW: 120 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

24H: 2025/01/15 00 UTC: 20.1 S / 40.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 240 SW: 140 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2025/01/15 12 UTC: 23.1 S / 41.4 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 240 SW: 155 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2025/01/16 00 UTC: 25.8 S / 42.9 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 155 SW: 120 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2025/01/16 12 UTC: 28.6 S / 45.3 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 75 SW: 100 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

72H: 2025/01/17 00 UTC: 30.7 S / 49.0 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 85 SW: 100 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/01/18 00 UTC: 32.5 S / 57.7 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 165 SW: 205 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35

120H: 2025/01/19 00 UTC: 33.0 S / 63.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 150 SW: 155 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, DIKELEDI HAS BEEN EVOLVING ON LAND IN NAMPULA
PROVINCE, MOZAMBIQUE, ALONG THE COAST. IT HAS MANAGED TO MAINTAIN A
GOOD CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION, AS SHOWN BY THE GPM MICROWAVE IMAGE
FROM 1846Z. THE ASCAT PASS MEASURED WINDS OF THE ORDER OF 35-40 KT AT SEA.

THE SYSTEM WILL SOON EMERGE INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, HEADING
SOUTH ON THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE OVER THE BASIN. FROM WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY, THE
SYSTEM COULD APPROACH THE MADAGASCAN COAST, GUIDED BY THE
UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SET UP BY THE MID-TROPOSPHERE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND A DISTANT TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. THE VAST MAJORITY
OF MODELS HAVE THE SYSTEM TRANSITING THROUGH THE CHANNEL, AND FOR
THE MOMENT DO NOT FORECAST ANY POSSIBLE LANDFALL ON THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF THE BIG ISLAND. THE RSMC PREDICTION IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
VARIOUS GUIDANCE SYSTEMS AVAILABLE, AND THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE SYSTEM'S FINAL TRAJECTORY.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, DIKELEDI WILL REGAIN ITS STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL
AS IT HEADS OUT TO SEA, COUPLED WITH GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
DESPITE A PERSISTENT ALTITUDE CONSTRAINT. IT SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY AS THE DAYS GO BY, ONCE AGAIN REACHING TROPICAL CYCLONE
STATUS ON TUESDAY AND PROBABLY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS ON
WEDNESDAY, DESPITE SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE OCEAN POTENTIAL
THEREAFTER. MOREOVER, DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM, A
POSSIBLE REPLACEMENT OF THE EYE WALL DURING ITS MATURE PHASE COULD
CAUSE ITS INTENSITY TO FLUCTUATE.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

MOZAMBIQUE (NAMPULA / ZAMBEZIA PROVINCE COASTLINE):
- STORM FORCE UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING.
- HEAVY TO LOCALLY TORRENTIAL RAIN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 100-150MM IN 24HRS, OR EVEN 200-250MM LOCALLY ALONG THE COAST.
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6M UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING. SURGE OF AROUND 1M50 TO 2M
SOUTH OF THE POINT OF IMPACT, BETWEEN THE TOWNS OF QUINGA AND NORTH
ANGOCHE.

SOUTH-WEST MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE) - FROM WEDNESDAY:
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6M LIKELY.
JUAN DE NOVA TUESDAY:
- HEAVY RAIN - 100MM CUMULATIVE RAINFALL IN 24H.
- WAVES OF 4M POSSIBLE.

EUROPA FROM WEDNESDAY :
- GALES TO STORMS LIKELY, HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS NOT RULED OUT A PRIORI.
- HEAVY RAIN (100-150MM CUMULATIVE).
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6M LIKELY.

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：赵渊明  签发：许映龙  2025 年 01 月 14 日 10 时
“迪克莱迪”已经登陆莫桑比克

时        间：14日08时（北京时）

海        域：南印度洋

命        名：“迪克莱迪”，DIKELEDI

中心位置：南纬16.2度、东经39.9度

强度等级：强热带风暴

最大风力：11级（30米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级）

中心气压：993百帕

参考位置：莫桑比克境内

变化过程：过去24小时，“迪克莱迪”强度先增强后减弱

预报结论：“迪克莱迪”将以每小时20-25公里的速度向偏南方向移动，移入莫桑比克海峡后，强度逐渐增强。受其影响，莫桑比克东北部沿海将有7-9级大风，“迪克莱迪”中心经过的附近海域或地区风力可达10-12级、阵风13-14级。莫桑比克东北部沿海、马达加斯加等地部分地区将有中到大雨，其中莫桑比克东北部沿海、马达加斯加西部等地部分地区将有暴雨或大暴雨（80-180）。



图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年01月14日08时00分）

pocketbox

WTIO30 FMEE 140706
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 30/5/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION 2025/01/14 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8 S / 39.8 E
(SIXTEEN    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY NINE    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/0 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 85 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 30 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 35 SW: 40 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/14 18 UTC: 18.9 S / 40.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 195 SW: 120 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

24H: 2025/01/15 06 UTC: 21.4 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 270 SW: 130 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 155 SW: 100 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

36H: 2025/01/15 18 UTC: 24.3 S / 41.9 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 195 SW: 130 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

48H: 2025/01/16 06 UTC: 27.1 S / 43.6 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 155 SW: 120 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2025/01/16 18 UTC: 29.4 S / 46.6 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

72H: 2025/01/17 06 UTC: 31.4 S / 50.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 75 SW: 100 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SW: 35 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/01/18 06 UTC: 32.3 S / 59.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 95 SW: 120 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 55

120H: 2025/01/19 06 UTC: 33.0 S / 65.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 130 SW: 0 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 0 NW: 65

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0

IN THE LAST 3 HOURS, DIKELEDI TRANSITS AGAIN OVER THE SEA. THE CLOUD
PATTERN HAS BEEN MAINTAINED WITH A CURVED BAND STRUCTURE MAINLY OVER
LAND. A BAND DISSOCIATED FROM THE SYSTEM IS PRESENT IN THE EASTERN
SECTOR WITHOUT BEING ASSOCIATED WITH DIKELEDI. IN THIS CONTEXT, A
DVORAK ANALYSIS CAN AGAIN BE MADE WITH A T OF 4.0 FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
OBJECTIVE ANALYSES, LEAVING AN ESTIMATE OF MEAN MAXIMUM WINDS OF
55KT. DIKELEDI IS THEREFORE CLASSIFIED AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM AT
06UTC. THERE IS A SLIGHT MISMATCH BETWEEN LOW-LEVEL AND UPPER-LEVEL
CIRCULATION.

THE RIDGE OF MID-TROPOSPHERE LOCATED OVER THE BASIN DEFINES THE
STEERING FLOW AT DIKELEDI, IMPOSING A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON ITS
WESTERN EDGE. ON WEDNESDAY, THE SYSTEM COULD APPROACH THE MALAGASY
COAST, GUIDED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SET UP BY THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND A TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. THE VAST
MAJORITY OF MODELS HAVE THE SYSTEM TRANSITING OVER THE SEA, AND FOR
THE MOMENT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY POSSIBLE LANDFALL ON THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF MADAGASCAR. THE DISPERSION OF THE MODELS TRANSLATES INTO
DISPLACEMENT SPEEDS THAT MODIFY THE CHRONOLOGY BY +/- 6 HOURS. THE
RSMC FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT GUIDANCE
AVAILABLE AND, IN THIS CONTEXT, DIKELEDI SHOULD EVACUATE TOWARDS MORE
SOUTHERLY LATITUDES BY THURSDAY DURING THE DAY, NO LONGER PRESENTING
A DANGER TO INHABITED LAND.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, DIKELEDI WILL EMERGE FROM THE SEA WITH A
STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL, COUPLED WITH GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
AND NOTABLY A WEAKENING ALTITUDE CONSTRAINT. IT SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY OVER TIME, WITH MORE OR LESS MARKED PHASES OF
INTENSIFICATION (EFFECT OF A POSSIBLE REPLACEMENT OF THE EYEWALL), TO
PROBABLY REACH THE STAGE OF AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMORROW.
THEREAFTER, AS IT PLUNGES TOWARDS SOUTHERN LATITUDES, DIKELEDI SHOULD
GRADUALLY TAKE ON AN ASYMMETRICAL STRUCTURE, WEAKENING STEADILY BUT
RETAINING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE CURRENT 120-HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

MOZAMBIQUE (NAMPULA / ZAMBEZIA PROVINCE COASTLINE):
- STORM FORCE UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING.
- RAINFALL TOTALS OF 100-150MM IN 24H, RISING TO 200-250MM LOCALLY
ALONG THE COAST.
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6M UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING. SURGE OF AROUND 1M50 TO 2M
SOUTH OF THE POINT OF IMPACT, BETWEEN THE TOWNS OF QUINGA AND
NORTHERN ANGOCHE.

JUAN DE NOVA TUESDAY:
- CUMULATIVE RAINFALL OF 100MM IN 24H, LINKED TO PRECIPITATING BANDS
DISSOCIATED FROM THE SYSTEM
- VERY POOR SEA STATE WITH AVERAGE WAVES OVER 4M AND MAXIMUM WAVES UP
TO 8M.

EUROPA FROM WEDNESDAY :
- GALE TO STORM LIKELY
- TOTAL OF 100-150MM IN 24H
- VERY BAD SEA STATE WITH AVERAGE WAVES OVER 4M AND MAXIMUM WAVES UP
TO 8M.

SOUTH-WEST MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE) - FROM WEDNESDAY:
- GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY
- VERY POOR SEA STATE WITH AVERAGE WAVES OVER 4M AND MAXIMUM WAVES UP
TO 8M.
- RESIDENTS ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM.=

pocketbox

WTXS31 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 010   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   140600Z --- NEAR 16.7S 39.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S 39.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z --- 18.9S 40.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z --- 21.3S 40.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z --- 24.3S 42.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z --- 26.8S 44.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z --- 30.6S 51.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z --- 31.7S 58.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 39.9E.
14JAN25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
330 NM NORTH OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 140600Z IS
988 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 25 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z AND 150900Z.//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 140900
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING
   
4. NR 010//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 16.7S 39.9E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 330 NM NORTH OF EUROPA ISLAND
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWARD AT 05 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 25 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
    
18. EXITED BACK INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AFTER DRAGGING ALONG THE
    
19. NORTHEAST COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE FOR ABOUT 18 HOURS. THE LAND
    
20. INTERACTION ERODED SOME OF THE CONVECTION BUT THE LOW LEVEL
    
21. CIRCULATION REMAINS INTACT AND WELL-DEFINED AS AN EMBEDDED CENTER.
    
22. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
    
23. EMBEDDED CENTER IN THE MSI LOOP THAT LINED UP WELL WITH A DEFINED
    
24. MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 140353Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGES. THE
    
25. INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55KTS IS ALSO ASSIGNED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
    
26. BASED ON OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF CLOSELY-VALUED AGENCY AND AUTOMATED
    
27. DVORAK ESTIMATES, REFLECTS THE CONVECTIVE DEGRADATION, AND
    
28. CONSISTENT WITH A FORMATIVE MICROWAVE EYE. ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
    
29. ENVIRONMENT IS ONCE AGAIN FAVORABLE WITH WARM SST AND STRONG
    
30. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY MODERATE VWS.
    
31. 
    
32. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE.
    
33. 
    
34. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
    
35. THE SOUTHEAST.
    
36. 
    
37. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
38.    PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
39.    KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
40.    FMEE: T4.0 - 65 KTS
    
41.    CIMSS ADT: 61 KTS AT 140530Z
    
42.    CIMSS AIDT: 58 KTS AT 140530Z
    
43.    CIMSS DPRNT: 42 KTS AT 140530Z
    
44.    CIMSS DMNT: 47 KTS AT 140530Z
    
45. 
    
46. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
    
47.    VWS: 15-20 KTS
    
48.    SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
    
49.    OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD
    
50. 
    
51. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
52.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
53.    INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
    
54.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
55. 
    
56. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
57. 
    
58. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
59. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
60. 
    
61. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC DIKELEDI WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD
    
62. UNDER THE STEERING STR. AFTER TAU 36, IT WILL RECURVE AND
    
63. ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE STR. THE
    
64. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, ENHANCED LATER WITH INCREASING POLEWARD
    
65. OUTFLOW BEFORE THE SOUTHEASTWARD TURN WILL PROMOTE INTENSIFICATION
    
66. TO A PEAK OF 90KTS BY TAU 48. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING
    
67. SST WILL BEGIN TO ERODE THE SYSTEM AS IT ENTERS THE BAROCLINIC
    
68. ZONE, REDUCING IT TO 45KTS BY TAU 96. CONCURRENTLY BY TAU 72, TC
    
69. 07S WILL COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND BY TAU 96,
    
70. WILL TRANSFORM INTO A STRONG GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW.
    
71. 
    
72. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH
    
73. A GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO A MERE 65NM BY TAU 72, LENDING HIGH
    
74. CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. AFTER TAU
    
75. 72, THE MODEL ENVELOPE REMAINS TIGHT BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES
    
76. ASSOCIATED WITH ETT, THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE
    
77. EXTENDED PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST. COROLLARY TO THAT, THERE IS
    
78. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST UP TO TAU 72, THEN LOW
    
79. CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD.
    
80. 
    
81. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
82.    TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
    
83.    TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
    
84.    INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
    
85.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
    
86. NNNN

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