马达加斯加以南强热带气旋第5号“迪克莱迪”(08U/07S.Dikeledi) - 有记载以来纬度最南的ITC，12日登陆马达加斯加北部，13日登陆莫桑比克 - JTWC:100KT

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：赵渊明  签发：许映龙  2025 年 01 月 14 日 18 时
“迪克莱迪”向偏南方向移动

时       间：14日14时（北京时）

海       域：南印度洋

命       名：“迪克莱迪”，DIKELEDI

中心位置：南纬16.7度、东经39.9度

强度等级：强热带风暴

最大风力：11级（30米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级）

中心气压：990百帕

参考位置：莫桑比克东北部近海

变化过程：过去24小时，“迪克莱迪”强度有所减弱

预报结论：“迪克莱迪”将以每小时20-25公里的速度向偏南方向移动，之后转向东南方向移动，强度逐渐增强。受其影响，莫桑比克东北部沿海将有7-9级大风，“迪克莱迪”中心经过的附近海域风力可达10-12级、阵风13-14级。


图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年01月14日14时00分）

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 141224
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 31/5/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION 2025/01/14 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4 S / 39.8 E
(EIGHTEEN    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY NINE    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 185 SW: 95 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 150 SW: 0 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/15 00 UTC: 20.7 S / 40.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 250 SW: 140 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

24H: 2025/01/15 12 UTC: 23.4 S / 41.4 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 240 SW: 130 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2025/01/16 00 UTC: 26.3 S / 42.7 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 165 SW: 120 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

48H: 2025/01/16 12 UTC: 28.9 S / 45.0 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2025/01/17 00 UTC: 31.2 S / 48.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 65 SW: 95 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

72H: 2025/01/17 12 UTC: 32.6 S / 53.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 130 SW: 260 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 65 SW: 130 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 45 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/01/18 12 UTC: 32.9 S / 61.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 185 SW: 280 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 35 SW: 0 NW: 45

120H: 2025/01/19 12 UTC: 33.5 S / 67.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 175 SW: 140 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 0 NW: 55

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS RETAINED ITS CURVED BAND
STRUCTURE. THE PREVIOUSLY DISTANT PRECIPITATION BAND MAY NOW BE
ATTACHED TO DIKELEDI, BUT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS OVERALL A LITTLE
LIGHTER AND WARMER THAN 6 HOURS AGO. THE CURVATURE OF THE CURVED BAND
STILL DEFINES A T OF 4.0, WHILE THE CENTER OF THE LOW LAYERS WAS
CLEARLY VISIBLE ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. DIKELEDI REMAINS A
STRONG TROPICAL STORM, WITH WINDS ESTIMATED AT 55KT.

THE RIDGE OF MID-TROPOSPHERE LOCATED OVER THE BASIN DEFINES THE
STEERING FLOW AT DIKELEDI, IMPOSING A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON ITS
WESTERN EDGE. SLIGHT ACCELERATION IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECASTS
COMPARED WITH THE PREVIOUS ANALYSIS TIME, BRINGING THE PREVIOUS
POSITIONS FORWARD BY ALMOST 3 HOURS, BUT THE DIRECTION REMAINS THE
SAME. WITH THIS IN MIND, THE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE MALAGASY COAST
ON WEDNESDAY, GUIDED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SET UP BY
THE MID-TROPOSPHERE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND A TROUGH CIRCULATING TO THE
SOUTH. THE VAST MAJORITY OF MODELS HAVE THE SYSTEM TRANSITING OVER
THE SEA, AND NO FURTHER LANDINGS ARE FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF MADAGASCAR. THE DISPERSION OF THE MODELS IS REFLECTED MORE IN THE
SPEED OF MOVEMENT, THUS MODIFYING THE CHRONOLOGY BY +/- 3 HOURS. THE
RSMC FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT GUIDANCE
AVAILABLE, AND IN THIS CONTEXT, DIKELEDI SHOULD EVACUATE TOWARDS MORE
SOUTHERLY LATITUDES BY THURSDAY DURING THE DAY, NO LONGER POSING A
DANGER TO INHABITED LAND AT THESE TIMES.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, DIKELEDI WILL REGAIN ITS STRONG OCEANIC
POTENTIAL, COUPLED WITH GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND, IN
PARTICULAR, A WEAKENING ALTITUDE CONSTRAINT. IT SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY OVER TIME, WITH MORE OR LESS MARKED PHASES OF
INTENSIFICATION (EFFECT OF A POSSIBLE REPLACEMENT OF THE EYEWALL), TO
PROBABLY REACH THE STAGE OF AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMORROW.
THERE IS ALSO A WIDE DISPERSION IN INTENSITY GUIDANCE, AND THE RSMC
FORECAST IS FOR THE MOST INTENSE SCENARIOS. THEREAFTER, FROM THURSDAY
ONWARDS, AS UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR DEVELOPS, THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM
SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN. AS IT PLUNGES TOWARDS SOUTHERN LATITUDES,
DIKELEDI SHOULD GRADUALLY TAKE ON AN ASYMMETRICAL STRUCTURE AND
WEAKEN STEADILY, WHILE RETAINING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER
THE CURRENT 120-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

MOZAMBIQUE (NAMPULA / ZAMBEZIA PROVINCE COASTLINE):
- RAINFALL TOTALS OF 100-150MM IN 24 HOURS, OR EVEN 200-250MM LOCALLY
ALONG THE COAST UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

JUAN DE NOVA TUESDAY:
- RAINFALL TOTALS OF 100MM IN 24H, LINKED TO PRECIPITATING BANDS
DISSOCIATED FROM THE SYSTEM
- VERY DEGRADED SEA CONDITIONS WITH AVERAGE WAVES OVER 4M AND MAXIMUM
WAVES UP TO 8M.

EUROPA FROM WEDNESDAY :
- GALE EXPECTED WITH VERY LIKELY STORM
- TOTAL OF 100-150MM IN 24H
- VERY DEGRADED SEA CONDITIONS WITH AVERAGE WAVES OVER 6M AND MAXIMUM
WAVES UP TO 12M.

SOUTH-WEST MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE) - FROM WEDNESDAY:
- RAINFALL TOTALS OF AROUND 100MM IN 24H ON THE COAST
- GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE
- VERY DEGRADED SEA CONDITIONS, WITH AVERAGE WAVES OVER 4M,
TEMPORARILY REACHING 6M LATE ON WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM WAVES OF 12M ARE
POSSIBLE.
- RESIDENTS ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM.=

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 141849
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 32/5/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION 2025/01/14 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.2 S / 40.1 E
(NINETEEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 185 SW: 95 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 150 SW: 0 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/15 06 UTC: 22.2 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 270 SW: 130 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 165 SW: 100 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 35

24H: 2025/01/15 18 UTC: 25.4 S / 42.2 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 195 SW: 95 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 110 SW: 65 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2025/01/16 06 UTC: 28.0 S / 44.1 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 165 SW: 110 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 30

48H: 2025/01/16 18 UTC: 30.4 S / 47.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 220 SW: 95 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 130 SW: 65 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2025/01/17 06 UTC: 32.2 S / 51.5 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 315 SW: 195 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 215 SW: 155 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

72H: 2025/01/17 18 UTC: 33.0 S / 56.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 215 SW: 120 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 130 SW: 0 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 45 SW: 0 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/01/18 18 UTC: 32.8 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 195 SW: 195 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 75 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 45

120H: 2025/01/19 18 UTC: 33.4 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 175 SW: 140 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 0 NW: 55

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5 CI=4.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CURVED BAND PATTERN HAS GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE DEFINED, AND THE CLOUD TOPS OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE CLUSTER,
LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD CENTER,
HAVE GRADUALLY WARMED UP. IT WAS NOT UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER 17UTC, JUST
BEFORE THE ANALYSIS TIME, THAT THIS CONVECTIVE MASS BECAME MORE
ACTIVE. THE SUCCESSIVE MICROWAVE PASSES 1349Z SSMIS-F18  AND 1558Z
SSMIS-F17  SHOW AN ORGANIZATION OF THE INNER CONVECTIVE CORE, ALBEIT
WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, DUE TO A SOUTHEASTERLY
UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR GIVEN AS 20KT BY CIMSS. THE RSMC DVORAK SUBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS CURRENTLY FAVORS A T OF 3.5 WITH THE CI MAINTAINED AT 4.0,
WHICH REMAINS FAIRLY CLOSE TO SATCON AND AIDT ESTIMATES. THE SYSTEM
IS THEREFORE LEFT AT THE SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE FOR 55KT.

THE MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE OVER THE BASIN DEFINES THE STEERING FLOW AT
DIKELEDI, IMPOSING A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALONG ITS WESTERN EDGE.
LITTLE CHANGE IN TRACK FORECAST. WITH THIS IN MIND, THE SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE MALAGASY COAST ON WEDNESDAY, GUIDED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SET UP BY THE MID-TROPOSPHERE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AND A TROUGH CIRCULATING TO THE SOUTH. THE VAST MAJORITY OF MODELS
HAVE THE SYSTEM TRANSITING OVER THE SEA, AND NO FURTHER LANDINGS ARE
FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR. THE DISPERSION OF THE
MODELS IS REFLECTED MORE IN THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT, THUS MODIFYING THE
CHRONOLOGY BY +/- 3 HOURS. THE RSMC FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE DIFFERENT GUIDANCE AVAILABLE, AND IN THIS CONTEXT, DIKELEDI
SHOULD EVACUATE TOWARDS MORE SOUTHERLY LATITUDES BY THURSDAY DURING
THE DAY, NO LONGER PRESENTING A DANGER TO INHABITED LAND AT THESE
TIMES.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, DIKELEDI HAS GOOD OCEAN HEAT POTENTIAL,
COUPLED WITH FINE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, THE PERSISTENT
SOUTH-EASTERLY HIGH PRESSURE COULD SLIGHTLY SLOW ITS INTENSIFICATION.
THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS THEREFORE FOR A REGULAR AND LESS ABRUPT
INTENSIFICATION OVER TIME (EFFECT OF A POSSIBLE ERC), PROBABLY
REACHING THE STAGE OF AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON WEDNESDAY. THERE
IS ALSO CONSIDERABLE DISPERSION IN CURRENT GUIDANCE, AND THE RSMC
FORECAST IS FOR THE MOST INTENSE SCENARIOS. THEREAFTER, FROM THURSDAY
ONWARDS, UNDER THE EFFECT OF INCREASED UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR AND THE
GRADUAL INTRUSION OF ASSOCIATED DRY AIR, THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY
SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN, THEN DIP TOWARDS SOUTHERN LATITUDES.
DIKELEDI SHOULD GRADUALLY TAKE ON A MORE ASSYMETRICAL STRUCTURE,
WHILE RETAINING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE CURRENT
120-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.

MPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

EUROPA FROM WEDNESDAY :
- GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO PROBABLE STORM
- CUMULATIVE RAINFALL OF 100-150MM IN 24 HOURS. IMPROVING ON
THURSDAY.
- VERY ROUGH SEAS WITH WAVES BETWEEN 4 AND 6M AND MAXIMUM WAVES UP TO
12M. IMPROVEMENT ON THURSDAY.

SOUTHWEST MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE) - FROM WEDNESDAY:
- GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE.
- CUMULATIVE RAINFALL OF AROUND 100MM IN 24H ON THE COAST.
- VERY ROUGH SEAS WITH AVERAGE WAVES BETWEEN 4 AND 6M. MAXIMUM WAVES
OF 12M POSSIBLE. IMPROVEMENT ON THURSDAY.
- RESIDENTS ARE INVITED TO KEEP INFORMED OF WEATHER FORECASTS THROUGH
THEIR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.=

ygsj24

WTXS31 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 011   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   141800Z --- NEAR 18.9S 39.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 39.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z --- 21.5S 40.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z --- 24.5S 41.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z --- 27.3S 44.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 19 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z --- 29.6S 47.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 19 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z --- 32.0S 55.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z --- 32.5S 63.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 19.6S 40.0E.
14JAN25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
199 NM NORTH OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 141800Z IS 985 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 26 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z AND 152100Z.//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 142100
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING
   
4. NR 011//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 18.9S 39.8E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 60 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 199 NM NORTH OF EUROPA ISLAND
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWARD AT 09 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 26 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
18. CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WITH RESTORED CENTRAL CONVECTION AS IT
    
19. TRACKS FURTHER POLEWARD WITHIN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL.
    
20. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 07S IS IN A FAVORABLE
    
21. ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW
    
22. TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA
    
23. SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM
    
24. CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
    
25. (LLCC) IN ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY. ADDITIONALLY, EXTRAPOLATION FROM A
    
26. 141600Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE AIDED IN PLACING THE INITIAL
    
27. POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
    
28. CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY DVORAK AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY
    
29. ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.
    
30. 
    
31. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
    
32. 
    
33. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
    
34. RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
    
35. 
    
36. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
37.    PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
38.    KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
39.    DEMS: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
40.    FMEE: T4.0 - 65 KTS
    
41.    CIMSS ADT: 47 KTS AT 141800Z
    
42.    CIMSS AIDT: 62 KTS AT 141800Z
    
43. 
    
44. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
    
45.    VWS: 15-20 KTS
    
46.    SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
    
47.    OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD
    
48. 
    
49. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
50.    INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
    
51.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
52.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
53. 
    
54. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
55. 
    
56. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
57. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
58. 
    
59. FORECAST DISCUSSION: 07S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
    
60. ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TAU
    
61. 36. AFTER TAU 36, 07S IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TRACKING WITH A MORE
    
62. EASTWARD TRAJECTORY AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR AND ROUNDS THE
    
63. RIDGE AXIS. 07S IS THEN FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
    
64. AROUND TAU 72 WITH COMPLETION AROUND TAU 96 AS THE SYSTEM
    
65. TRANSITIONS INTO A GALE-FORCE COLD-CORE LOW. REGARDING INTENSITY,
    
66. 07S IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 80 KTS NEAR TAU
    
67. 36. THE MAIN FACTORS WILL BE THE COMBINATION OF AN IMPROVING
    
68. POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO THE JET AND WARM SEA SURFACE
    
69. TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
    
70. REMAIN AROUND 15 KTS THROUGH TAU 18, BUT THEN BRIEFLY LOWER DURING
    
71. THE TAU 24 TO 36 TIMEFRAME. AT TAU 48, SHEAR INCREASES TO 20 KTS
    
72. AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROP TO BELOW 25 C, WHICH WILL
    
73. INITIATE THE WEAKENING TREND THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
    
74. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHEAR GREATLY INCREASES TO
    
75. UPWARDS OF 40 KTS AT TAU 72 AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROP TO 23
    
76. C, CREATING A VERY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT FOR 07S.
    
77. 
    
78. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
    
79. AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK OF 07S THROUGH TAU 48 WITH A 50 NM
    
80. CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT THAT TIME. AFTER TAU 48, ALONG-TRACK SPREAD
    
81. INCREASES DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE VORTEX INTERACTS WITH THE
    
82. JET. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE CONSENSUS WITH HIGH
    
83. CONFIDENCE THROUGH TAU 72 AND THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER.
    
84. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN SLIGHTLY WORSE AGREEMENT THIS CYCLE. THE
    
85. COAMPS-TC AND GFS BOTH SUGGEST WEAKENING AFTER TAU 12 WITH
    
86. INTENSITIES BELOW 55 KTS AT TAU 36. HAFS-A AND HWRF DIFFER IN THAT
    
87. THEY BOTH SUGGEST INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 36 WITH PEAK
    
88. INTENSITIES RANGING FROM 75-80 KTS. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
    
89. PLACED IN LINE WITH THE HAFS-A AND HWRF MODELS DUE TO THE OVERALL
    
90. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT EXPECTED THROUGH TAU 36.
    
91. 
    
92. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
93.    TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
    
94.    TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
    
95.    INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
    
96.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
    
97. NNNN

复制代码

pocketbox

WTIO30 FMEE 150029
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 33/5/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION 2025/01/15 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.4 S / 40.4 E
(TWENTY    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 979 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 335 SW: 45 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 335 SE: 295 SW: 0 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 85 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1002 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/15 12 UTC: 23.8 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 280 SW: 130 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 175 SW: 100 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 35 NW: 30

24H: 2025/01/16 00 UTC: 26.8 S / 43.1 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 220 SW: 0 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 140 SW: 0 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 75 SW: 0 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 0 NW: 0

36H: 2025/01/16 12 UTC: 29.4 S / 45.8 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 195 SW: 85 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 120 SW: 55 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 75 SW: 35 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 30 NW: 30

48H: 2025/01/17 00 UTC: 31.6 S / 49.7 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 185 SW: 100 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 120 SW: 75 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 65 SW: 35 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 30 NW: 30

60H: 2025/01/17 12 UTC: 32.9 S / 54.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 250 SW: 250 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 165 SW: 85 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 65 SW: 0 NW: 55

72H: 2025/01/18 00 UTC: 33.2 S / 59.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 215 SW: 230 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 140 SW: 100 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 65 SW: 0 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/01/19 00 UTC: 33.1 S / 65.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 220 SW: 140 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 0 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 55 SW: 0 NW: 45

120H: 2025/01/20 00 UTC: 33.3 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 175 SW: 0 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BREATHED HEAVILY IN THE
SYSTEM'S NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, WITH CLOUD TOPS TEMPORARILY WARMING UP.
THE POSITION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS ESTIMATED AT THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE CLUSTER, AS SHOWN BY THE GCOM-W / AMSR2
MICROWAVE PASS AT 2245Z. THE LATTER, AVAILABLE SHORTLY AFTER THE
ANALYSIS TIME, CONFIRMS THAT DIKEDELI REMAINS IN THE GRIP OF VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ALOFT OF THE ORDER OF 15 TO 20KT MOVING IN THE OPPOSITE
DIRECTION TO THE MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH WOULD EXPLAIN NOT ONLY
THE LABORIOUS INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM, BUT ALSO THE ERODED
STATE OF THE CONVECTIVE CORE THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE LATEST OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DATA
AVAILABLE. HOWEVER, CURRENT EVIDENCE POINTS TO A STATUS QUO AT 55KT.

THE RIDGE OF MID-TROPOSPHERE LOCATED OVER THE BASIN DEFINES THE
DIRECTING FLOW BY IMPOSING A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON ITS WESTERN EDGE,
AIDED BY A UPPER TROUGH CIRCULATING FURTHER SOUTH. THERE HAS BEEN
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST FOR SEVERAL ANALYSIS TIME NOW.
HOWEVER, THE PERSISTENCE OF AN ALONG-TRACK GUIDANCE SYSTEM HAS
ACCELERATED THE SYSTEM'S SPEED OF MOVEMENT, ALTERING THE CHRONOLOGY
BY A FEW HOURS. THE PRESENT FORECAST HAS DIKEDELI TRANSITING TOWARDS
TOLIARA PROVINCE ON WEDNESDAY. ALL THE GUIDANCE SYSTEMS MEAN THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE IN THE CHANNEL, AND A LANDFALL IS NOT FORECAST FOR
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR. THE RSMC FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE VARIOUS AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SYSTEMS, AND IN THIS CONTEXT,
DIKELEDI SHOULD EVACUATE TOWARDS MORE SOUTHERLY LATITUDES BY THURSDAY
DURING THE DAY, NO LONGER POSING A THREAT TO INHABITED LAND AT THAT
TIME.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, DIKELEDI HAS DECENT OCEAN HEAT POTENTIAL,
COUPLED WITH GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, THE PERSISTENT
SOUTHEASTERLY UPPER VWS COULD SLOW DOWN INTENSIFICATION THIS
WEDNESDAY. NEVERTHELESS, THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS FOR A REGULAR AND
LESS ABRUPT INTENSIFICATION OVER TIME, TO PROBABLY REACH THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE STAGE IN THE MORNING, OR EVEN THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
STAGE IN THE EVENING. OF COURSE, THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE WEAKENING OF
THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR NORMALLY EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM. THE
CURRENT GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY DISPERSED, AND THE RSMC FORECAST IS FOR
THE MOST INTENSE SCENARIOS. THEREAFTER, FROM THURSDAY ONWARDS, UNDER
THE EFFECT OF THE INCREASE IN UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR, THE PROGRESSIVE
INTRUSION OF ASSOCIATED DRY AIR ALOFT, AND THE PASSAGE OVER COOLER
WATERS, THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES EASTWARDS INTO MORE SOUTHERLY LATITUDES. DIKELEDI SHOULD THEN
GRADUALLY TAKE ON A MORE ASSYMETRICAL STRUCTURE AND BEGIN ITS
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OVER THE COMING WEEKEND.

MPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

EUROPA FROM WEDNESDAY :
- GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO PROBABLE STORM
- CUMULATIVE RAINFALL OF 100-150MM IN 24 HOURS. IMPROVING ON
THURSDAY.
- VERY ROUGH SEAS WITH WAVES BETWEEN 4 AND 6M AND MAXIMUM WAVES UP TO
12M. IMPROVEMENT ON THURSDAY.

SOUTHWEST MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE) - FROM WEDNESDAY:
- GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE.
- CUMULATIVE RAINFALL OF AROUND 100MM IN 24H ON THE COAST.
- VERY ROUGH SEAS WITH AVERAGE WAVES BETWEEN 4 AND 6M. MAXIMUM WAVES
OF 12M POSSIBLE. IMPROVEMENT ON THURSDAY.
- RESIDENTS ARE INVITED TO KEEP INFORMED OF WEATHER FORECASTS THROUGH
THEIR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.=

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：刘 达  签发：张 玲  2025 年 01 月 15 日 10 时
“迪克莱迪”向南偏东方向移动

时       间：15日08时（北京时）

海       域：南印度洋

命       名：“迪克莱迪”，DIKELEDI

中心位置：南纬20.4度、东经40.4度

强度等级：强热带风暴

最大风力：10级（28米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级）

中心气压：979百帕

参考位置：马达加斯加塔那那利佛西偏南方向约760公里的洋面上

变化过程：过去24小时，“迪克莱迪”由11级减弱到10级

预报结论：“迪克莱迪”将以每小时20公里左右的速度向南偏东方向移动，强度略有维持，尔后逐渐向马达加斯加西南部沿海靠近，强度逐渐减弱。


图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年01月15日08时00分）

---

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：刘 达  签发：张 玲  2025 年 01 月 15 日 10 时
“迪克莱迪”逐渐向马达加斯加西南近海靠近

时       间：15日08时（北京时，下同）

海       域：南印度洋

命       名：“迪克莱迪”，DIKELEDI

中心位置：南纬20.4度、东经40.4度

强度等级：强热带风暴

最大风力：10级（28米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级）

中心气压：979百帕

参考位置：马达加斯加塔那那利佛西偏南方向约760公里的莫桑比克海峡内

变化过程：过去24小时，“迪克莱迪”由11级减弱到10级

预报结论：“迪克莱迪”将以每小时30公里左右的速度向南偏东方向移动，逐渐向马达加斯加西南部近海靠近，强度还将继续增强，16日以后将在马达加斯加以南洋面转向偏东方向移动。

受其影响，15日14时到16日14时，马达加斯加西南部沿海将有大到暴雨，莫桑比克海峡、马达加斯加西部和东部沿海将有7-8级大风，其中莫桑比克海峡西南部和马达加斯加西南部近海海面的风力可达9-11级，“迪克莱迪”中心经过的附近海域风力可达12-15级。

16日中午以后“迪克莱迪”将逐渐远离马达加斯加，当天夜间其对马达加斯加的影响基本结束。


图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年01月15日08时00分）

pocketbox

WTIO30 FMEE 150640
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 34/5/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION 2025/01/15 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.7 S / 40.9 E
(TWENTY ONE    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 280 SW: 95 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 205 SW: 55 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 65 SW: 0 NW: 65

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1001 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/15 18 UTC: 25.1 S / 42.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 215 SW: 120 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 165 SW: 95 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 75 SW: 0 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2025/01/16 06 UTC: 28.2 S / 44.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 220 SW: 110 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 150 SW: 85 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 65 SW: 0 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 0 NW: 0

36H: 2025/01/16 18 UTC: 30.8 S / 47.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 195 SW: 110 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 130 SW: 85 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 65 SW: 35 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 30 NW: 0

48H: 2025/01/17 06 UTC: 32.6 S / 52.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 185 SW: 220 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 55 SW: 0 NW: 55

60H: 2025/01/17 18 UTC: 33.5 S / 57.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 185 SW: 140 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 45 SW: 0 NW: 45

72H: 2025/01/18 06 UTC: 33.5 S / 61.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 165 SW: 185 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 110 SW: 75 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 45 SW: 0 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/01/19 06 UTC: 33.2 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 220 SW: 140 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 0 NW: 55


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0+

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION HAS CLEARLY INTENSIFIED, WITH A
STRONG EXPANSION OF THE CDO ASSOCIATED WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS
WITHIN AN EMBEDDED CENTER PATTERN IN INFRARED IMAGERY. AN EYE-LIKE
FEATURE HAS STARTED TO APPEAR IN VISIBLE IMAGERY SINCE 0545Z. THE
LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW A CLEAR IMPROVEMENT IN STRUCTURE AND A
SYMMETRIZATION OF CONVECTION COMPARED WITH 00UTC. IN PARTICULAR, THE
GPM-GMI FROM 0518Z SHOWS AN EYE IN 37GHZ AND A SOLID CURVED BAND
WRAPPING MORE THAN 1 TURN ROUND IN 89GHZ. THE MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM
HAS TEMPORARILY SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE, HELPING TO REDUCE THE EFFECTS
OF SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR, IN CONJUNCTION WITH BETTER CENTERING UNDER
THE UPPER RIDGE. THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM WAS ABOUT 100 KM NORTHEAST
OF EUROPA AT 06UTC. DVORAK'S SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS IS BASED ON PT. A
SAR RCM3 PASS AT 0247Z SHOWS WINDS OF OVER 65KT (1MIN WINDS) OR EVEN
MORE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, ALTHOUGH AN OVERESTIMATE IS POSSIBLE.
GIVEN THE STRUCTURAL IMPROVEMENT SINCE THEN, THE SYSTEM'S WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 60 KT (10-MIN WINDS) AT 06UTC, IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE LATEST ADT/AIDT/DPRINT CIMSS ESTIMATES.

THE SYSTEM'S MOVEMENT IS DRIVEN BY THE MID-TROPOSPHERE STEERING FLOW
BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A TROUGH CIRCULATING FURTHER SOUTH.
THERE ARE RELATIVELY LOW UNCERTAINTIES ON THE OVERALL TRACK DESPITE
SOME DISPERSION ON THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT. NO LANDFALL IS EXPECTED
OVER MADAGASCAR. DIKELEDI SHOULD EVACUATE SOUTH OF 30S LATITUDE BY
THURSDAY EVENING, AND WILL NO LONGER POSE ANY THREAT TO INHABITED
LANDS FROM THEN ON.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, DIKELEDI WILL BENEFIT FROM HIGH OCEANIC HEAT
CONTENT UNTIL THURSDAY, COUPLED WITH GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS :
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR IS EASING TODAY, WHILE THE SYSTEM IS PASSING
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING, THUS BENEFITING FROM
GOOD UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. AN INTENSIFICATION TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
THEN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY. FROM
THURSDAY ONWARDS, WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN, BECOMING MORE IMPACTFUL FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY,
CAUSING DRY AIR INTRUSIONS. THIS INCREASING WIND SHEAR COMBINED WITH
COOLER WATERS FROM FRIDAY SHOULD WEAKEN AND ASYMMETRIZE THE SYSTEM,
MAKING IT BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

EUROPA THIS WEDNESDAY :
- GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED, POSSIBLE STORM FORCE WINDS (LOW
PROBABILITY).
- CUMULATIVE RAINFALL OF 50-100MM IN 12 HOURS. IMPROVING OVERNIGHT.
- VERY ROUGH SEAS WITH WAVES BETWEEN 4 AND 6M AND MAXIMUM WAVES UP TO
10M. IMPROVEMENT TONIGHT.

SOUTHWEST MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE) - FROM WEDNESDAY:
- GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE.
- CUMULATIVE RAINFALL OF AROUND 100MM IN 24H ALONG THE COAST.
- VERY ROUGH SEAS WITH AVERAGE WAVES BETWEEN 4 AND 6M. MAXIMUM WAVES
OF 10-12M POSSIBLE. IMPROVEMENT ON THURSDAY.
- RESIDENTS ARE INVITED TO KEEP INFORMED OF WEATHER FORECASTS THROUGH
THEIR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.=

pocketbox

WTXS31 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 012   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   150600Z --- NEAR 21.7S 41.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.7S 41.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z --- 25.0S 42.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z --- 27.7S 44.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 19 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z --- 30.1S 48.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 20 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z --- 31.6S 52.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 21 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z --- 33.1S 62.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 22.5S 41.4E.
15JAN25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 58 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 150600Z
IS 970 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 35 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z AND 160900Z.//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 150900
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING
   
4. NR 012//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 21.7S 41.1E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 70 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 58 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 35 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
    
18. INTENSIFIED AS EVIDENCED BY EXPANDED AND DEEPENED CENTRAL
    
19. CONVECTION AND THE FORMATION OF A DIMPLED EYE. THE CYCLONE HAS
    
20. BEGUN TO ACCELERATE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AND TAPPED INTO THE
    
21. POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
    
22. CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE DIMPLED EYE FEATURE AND LINED UP WITH A
    
23. DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 150514Z GPM IMAGE. THE INITIAL
    
24. INTENSITY OF 70KTS IS ALSO ASSIGNED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
    
25. OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF CLOSELY-VALUED AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK
    
26. ESTIMATES, CONSISTENT WITH THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. ANALYSIS
    
27. INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SST AND MODERATE
    
28. EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY MODERATE VWS.
    
29. 
    
30. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE AND EXTRAPOLATION.
    
31. 
    
32. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
    
33. EAST-SOUTHEAST.
    
34. 
    
35. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
36.    PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
    
37.    KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS
    
38.    DEMS: T4.5 - 77 KTS
    
39.    CIMSS ADT: 63 KTS AT 150530Z
    
40.    CIMSS AIDT: 72 KTS AT 150530Z
    
41.    CIMSS DPRNT: 58 KTS AT 150530Z
    
42. 
    
43. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
    
44.    VWS: 15-20 KTS
    
45.    SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
    
46.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
    
47. 
    
48. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
49.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
50.    INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
    
51.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
52. 
    
53. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
54. 
    
55. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
56. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
57. 
    
58. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC DIKELEDI WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD THEN
    
59. EASTWARD ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE STR. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT,
    
60. ENHANCED LATER BY INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL PROMOTE FURTHER
    
61. INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 75KTS AT TAUS 12-24. AFTERWARD,
    
62. INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SST WILL BEGIN TO ERODE THE SYSTEM AS IT
    
63. ENTERS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE, REDUCING IT TO 50KTS BY TAU 72.
    
64. CONCURRENTLY BY TAU 48, TC 07S WILL COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
    
65. (ETT) AND BY TAU 72, WILL TRANSFORM INTO A STRONG GALE-FORCE COLD CORE
    
66. LOW.
    
67. 
    
68. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH
    
69. A GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO A MERE 116NM BY TAU 72, LENDING HIGH
    
70. CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED
    
71. WITH ETT, THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST.
    
72. 
    
73. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
74.    TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
    
75.    INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
    
76. NNNN

复制代码

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：刘 达  签发：张 玲  2025 年 01 月 15 日 18 时
“迪克莱迪” 将在莫桑比克海峡南部再次加强

时       间：15日14时（北京时，下同）

海       域：南印度洋

命       名：“迪克莱迪”，DIKELEDI

中心位置：南纬21.7度、东经40.9度

强度等级：热带气旋

最大风力：11级（30米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级）

中心气压：978百帕

参考位置：马达加斯加陶拉纳鲁西偏北方向约720公里的莫桑比克海峡内

变化过程：过去24小时，“迪克莱迪”强度变化不大

预报结论：“迪克莱迪”将以每小时25-30公里的速度沿马达加斯加西南部近海向南偏东方向移动，强度还将继续增强，16日以后将在马达加斯加以南洋面转向偏东方向移动，强度将明显减弱。

受其影响，15日20时到16日20时，马达加斯加西南部沿海将有大到暴雨，莫桑比克海峡、马达加斯加西部和东部沿海将有7-8级大风，其中莫桑比克海峡西南部和马达加斯加西南部近海海面的风力可达9-11级，“迪克莱迪”中心经过的附近海域风力可达12-14级，阵风可达15级。

16日中午以后“迪克莱迪”将逐渐远离马达加斯加，当天夜间其对马达加斯加的影响基本结束。


图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年01月15日14时00分）

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 151235
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 35/5/20242025
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION 2025/01/15 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.7 S / 41.7 E
(TWENTY THREE    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 21 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 967 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 26 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 280 SW: 95 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 205 SW: 65 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SW: 50 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1001 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/16 00 UTC: 27.0 S / 43.4 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 220 SW: 120 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 140 SW: 85 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 30 NW: 30

24H: 2025/01/16 12 UTC: 30.1 S / 46.7 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 205 SW: 130 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 120 SW: 75 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2025/01/17 00 UTC: 32.4 S / 51.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 35

48H: 2025/01/17 12 UTC: 33.9 S / 57.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55

60H: 2025/01/18 00 UTC: 34.5 S / 62.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 175 SW: 205 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 55

72H: 2025/01/18 12 UTC: 34.6 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 140 SW: 155 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 120

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/01/19 12 UTC: 33.9 S / 72.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
NOTE : THE SYSTEM'S PAST BEST-TRACK HAS BEEN UPDATED, DOWNGRADING ITS
INTENSITY TO MODERATE TROPICAL STORM AS IT PASSED SOUTH OF MAYOTTE ON
SUNDAY 12TH AND WHILE IT CAME OFF THE MOZAMBICAN COAST ON TUESDAY
14TH, BASED ON AFTERHAND ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS DATA (ASCAT, SMAP).

************

T=CI=4.5

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, DIKELEDI HAS GRADUALLY ADOPTED AN EYE PATTERN,
FIRST IN VISIBLE IMAGERY, THEN IN INFRARED IMAGERY AROUND 12UTC, WITH
CONVECTION BECOMING MORE SYMMETRICAL. THE 1055Z GCOMW AMSR2 PASS
CONFIRMS THIS IMPROVEMENT IN STRUCTURE. THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS
SEEMS TO BE CONTRACTING AND HAS BEEN ESTIMATED AT 14MN. THE DVORAK
T-NUMBER CAN BE ESTIMATED AT 4.5 AND THE SYSTEM'S MAXIMUM WINDS CAN
BE ESTIMATED AT 70KT, MAINLY IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, MAKING THE
SYSTEM REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. BESIDES, THE 0616Z ASCAT-C PASS
CONFIRMED THE INTENSITY PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED AT 06Z (60KT). THE
SYSTEM PASSED 80KM EAST OF THE ISLAND OF EUROPA BETWEEN 07 AND 08Z,
WHICH WAS AFFECTED BY THE PASSAGE OF THE NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS AT
MIDDAY WITH AVERAGE WINDS REACHING UP TO 29KT. THE CENTER OF THE
CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY JUST UNDER 200KM OFF THE COAST OF MADAGASCAR,
AND ITS MOVEMENT HAS ACCELERATED.

THE SYSTEM'S MOVEMENT IS DRIVEN BY THE MID-TROPOSPHERE STEERING FLOW
BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A TROUGH CIRCULATING FURTHER SOUTH.
THERE ARE RELATIVELY LOW UNCERTAINTIES ON THE OVERALL TRACK SHAPE,
PASSING ABOUT 150 KM OFF THE MALAGASY COAST. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS
SOME QUITE HIGH ALONG-TRACK DISPERSION, DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE
SPEED OF MOVEMENT. THE RSMC FORECAST IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE ECMWF
MODEL SCENARIO, WHICH IS A BIT FASTER AND MORE CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH
THE INITIAL MOVEMENT. DIKELEDI SHOULD EVACUATE SOUTH OF 30S LATITUDE
BY THURSDAY EVENING, AND WILL NO LONGER POSE ANY THREAT TO INHABITED
LANDS FROM THEN ON.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, DIKELEDI IS BENEFITING FROM HIGH OCEANIC HEAT
CONTENT UNTIL THURSDAY, COUPLED WITH GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS :
WIND SHEAR IS BECOMING LOW TONIGHT WHILE THE SYSTEM IS PASSING UNDER
THE UPPER RIDGE UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING, THUS BENEFITING FROM GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. RAPID INTENSIFICATION UP TO INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE STAGE IS THUS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER, THIS
INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN, WITH HIGH DISPERSION
AMONG NWP MODELS. IN ADDITION, THE EVENTUALITY OF AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE COULD CAUSE THE INTENSITY TO FLUCTUATE. FROM
THURSDAY ONWARDS, WESTERLY WIND SHEAR SHOULD GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN,
BECOMING MORE IMPACTFUL FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, LIKELY
CAUSING DRY AIR INTRUSIONS. THIS INCREASING WIND SHEAR COMBINED WITH
COOLER WATERS FROM FRIDAY SHOULD WEAKEN AND ASYMMETRIZE THE SYSTEM,
MAKING IT BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :

EUROPA :
- VERY ROUGH SEAS WITH WAVES BETWEEN 4 AND 5M. IMPROVEMENT TONIGHT.

SOUTHWEST MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE) :
- GALE FORCE WINDS ONGOING AND EXPECTED UNTIL THURSDAY EARLY MORNING.
- CUMULATIVE RAINFALL NEAR 100MM IN 24H ALONG THE COAST.
- VERY ROUGH SEAS WITH AVERAGE WAVES BETWEEN 4 AND 6M. MAXIMUM WAVES
OF 10-12M POSSIBLE. IMPROVEMENT ON THURSDAY.
- RESIDENTS ARE INVITED TO KEEP INFORMED OF WEATHER FORECASTS THROUGH
THEIR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.=