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发表于 2024-10-27 17:18
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JTWC/23W/#10/10-27 06Z Prognostic Reasoning
本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2024-10-27 18:30 编辑
WDPN32 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 23W (KONG-REY) WARNING NR
010//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 16.7N 132.0E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 633 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 11 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 25 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TWO DISTINCT
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS, WHICH ARE ROTATING AROUND A CENTROID
NEAR 16.7N 132.0E (THE INITIAL POSITION). THE FIRST LLCC IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.9N 131.0E AND IS GENERALLY TRACKING SOUTHWARD. THE SECOND LLCC
IS TRACKING NORTHWARD AND IS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 132.3E. THE PRESENCE
OF MULTIPLE LLCCS IS DEPICTED WELL IN THE LATEST HAFS-A RUN, WHICH
EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATES THE MULTIPLE LLCCS INTO A DISCRETE LLCC BY TAU
24. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD WIND MINIMUM THAT
CORRESPONDS WELL WITH THE INITIAL POSITION. AS INDICATED IN A 270646Z
SSMIS COLOR 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, THE LLCC IS BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED BETWEEN THE TWO LLCCS, WITH BROAD BANDING OVER THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE STEADILY IMPROVING WITH
ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS
BASED ON THE RANGE OF SUBJECTIVE AND CIMSS OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ENTRENCHED TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST, WITH A BREAK IN THE STR OVER
THE OKINAWA REGION.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS
RCTP: T2.5 - 35 KTS
KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 41 KTS AT 270453Z
CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 270530Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 10-15 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: LOW
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM (TS) 23W IS FORECAST TO TRACK
WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 WITH SLOW INTENSIFICATION AS THE BROAD LLCC
CONSOLIDATES. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY AT A FASTER
RATE WHILE TRACKING POLEWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE
STR. AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW IMPROVES THE SYSTEM WILL REACH ITS PEAK
INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS, WITH POTENTIAL FOR A HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY
POSSIBLE EAST OF TAIWAN. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TS 23W WILL TRACK
NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR WITH A TRACK NEAR
OR JUST EAST OF TAIWAN. IN GENERAL, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO RECURVE
TOWARD KYUSHU WHILE UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AFTER TAU
120.
MODEL DISCUSSION: DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THE CENTER AND
PRESENCE OF MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION, WHICH IS BASED ON A CENTROID
APPROACH. THIS COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT SHIFTS IN THE TRACK
FORECAST AND TRACK SPEEDS OVER THE NEXT DAY. THE 270000Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE (EPS) ABOUT 80 PERCENT OF THE SOLUTIONS TRACKING THE SYSTEM
OVER TAIWAN OR EAST TO OKINAWA THROUGH TAU 120. THE 270000Z GFS
ENSEMBLE (GEFS) SHOWS A WIDER SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS FROM STRAIGHT RUNNER
TRACKS OVER NORTHERN LUZON TO RECURVE SOLUTIONS WEST OF OKINAWA TO
ABOUT 125E LONGITUDE. THE 270000Z COAMPS-TC ENSEMBLE INTENSITY
PROBABILITY PRODUCT INDICATES A 60 TO 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION IN THE TAU 48 TO TAU 72 PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN
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楼主: ygsj24
发表于 2024-10-27 16:01
