‌罗德里格斯岛东北强热带气旋第3号“贝基”(02S.Bheki) - 风眼构建，西南行进，趋向毛里求斯 - MFR:105KT JTWC:115KT

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 201829
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 34/3/20242025
1.A FILLING UP 3 (BHEKI)

2.A POSITION 2024/11/20 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.9 S / 59.7 E
(NINETEEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY NINE    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.0/2.0/W 3.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1004 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 305 SW: 230 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/11/21 06 UTC: 21.1 S / 57.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 270 SW: 155 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 95 NW: 0

24H: 2024/11/21 18 UTC: 22.6 S / 55.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 325 SW: 185 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SW: 85 NW: 0

36H: 2024/11/22 06 UTC: 23.3 S / 54.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 315 SW: 195 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SW: 0 NW: 0

48H: 2024/11/22 18 UTC: 23.9 S / 53.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 335 SW: 175 NW: 0

60H: 2024/11/23 06 UTC: 25.2 S / 52.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 215 SW: 110 NW: 0

72H: 2024/11/23 18 UTC: 26.9 S / 51.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=1.0 CI=2.0+

LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS: THE SYSTEM IS STILL UNDER STRONG
WESTERLY SHEAR STRESS FOR 20/25KT ACCORDING TO THE LATEST CIMSS DATA,
AND REMAINS VIRTUALLY DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION UNTIL 15UTC. OVER THE
LAST 3 HOURS, A FEW CONVECTIVE PUFFS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP, BUT
RATHER FAR FROM THE CENTER, IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. THE ASCAT-B
PASS AT 1705Z ENABLED THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER TO BE WELL POSITIONED AND
THE WIND EXTENSIONS TO BE REACTUALIZED, SHOWING ONLY NEAR GALE FORCE
WINDS IN THE SYSTEM'S SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, RISING SLIGHTLY IN THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT. ON THIS OBJECTIVE BASIS, THE MAXIMUM MEAN WIND
SPEED WAS RE-EVALUATED AT 30KT.

BHEKI CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE ITS WEST-SOUTH-WEST COURSE. DUE TO ITS
WEAKENED STATE, ITS MOVEMENT IS BEING DRIVEN BY LOW-LEVEL FLOWS ON
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SIDES OF THE MASCAREIGNES RIDGE. IT SHOULD,
HOWEVER, SLOW DOWN AS IT TURNS MORE SOUTH-WESTERLY ON THURSDAY. THE
DIFFERENT MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TRACK SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF
THE GREAT MASCARENES (REUNION AND MAURITIUS). ON THE OTHER HAND, THE
DISPERSION OF GUIDANCE REMAINS MORE SIGNIFICANT FROM FRIDAY, SOUTH OF
THE 22ND PARALLEL.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE COLLAPSE SCENARIO OF BHEKI'S HOT CORE
CONTINUES, AND THE SYSTEM REMAINS AT THE STAGE OF A FILLING LOW.
TONIGHT, HOWEVER, NUMERICAL MODELS SUGGEST A RESUMPTION OF
CONVECTION, WHICH COULD TEMPORARILY REINTENSIFY WINDS AS THE SYSTEM
ENTERS THE LEFT-ENTRY UPPER-LEVEL JET. THIS BAROCLINIC EFFECT,
COMBINED WITH THE EFFECT OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, COULD KEEP THE SYSTEM'S SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE WITH
NEAR GALE AND GALE FORCE WINDS. BY THE END OF THE WEEK, HOWEVER, THE
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM WILL DROP AGAIN AND BHEKI SHOULD EVOLVE INTO
A REMNANT LOW DEVOID OF ANY PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR THE
CENTER. BHEKI SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS WEEKEND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
MALAGASY COAST.

EXPECTED IMPACTS ON MAURITIUS :
- WAVES AROUND 4M BETWEEN WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY MORNING,
WITH HIGHEST WAVES UP TO 8M.
- POSSIBLE RISK OF HEAVY RAIN FROM TONIGHT. BUT THE MAIN RAIN
DEVELOPMENTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT SEA.
RESIDENTS OF MAURITIUS ARE INVITED TO KEEP ABREAST OF THE WEATHER
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE MAURITIUS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

EXPECTED IMPACT ON REUNION :
- WAVES OF 4 TO 4.5M OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
MORNING, WITH HIGHEST WAVES UP TO 9M.=

ygsj24

WTXS31 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BHEKI) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BHEKI) WARNING NR 014   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   201800Z --- NEAR 19.6S 59.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S 59.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z --- 20.7S 57.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z --- 21.8S 55.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z --- 22.8S 54.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 23.7S 53.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 19.9S 59.1E.
20NOV24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BHEKI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 139
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 201800Z IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z AND 212100Z.//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 202100
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BHEKI) WARNING NR
   
4. 014//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 19.6S 59.7E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 139 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS,
    
13. MAURITIUS
    
14.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KTS
    
15.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET
    
16. 
    
17. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
18. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
19. CYCLONE 02S (BHEKI) WITH AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
    
20. (LLCC) AND SCARCE BURSTS OF CONVECTION WITHIN THE SOUTHERN
    
21. PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 02S IS IN AN
    
22. UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
    
23. HIGH (25-30 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, EXTENSIVE DRY AIR, AND COOL
    
24. (25-26 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE INITIAL POSITION AND
    
25. INTENSITY ARE PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 201707Z
    
26. ASCAT-B IMAGE SHOWING A LARGE SWATH OF 30 KNOT WINDS IN THE
    
27. SOUTHERN PERIPHERY, HEDGED 5 KTS HIGHER BASED ON THE SLIGHTLY LOW
    
28. BIAS OF ASCAT. AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES SUGGEST A LOWER INTENSITY
    
29. DUE TO THE LACK OF CONVECTION OVER THE SYSTEM.
    
30. 
    
31. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA
    
32. 
    
33. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
    
34. RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
    
35. 
    
36. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
37.    PGTW: T1.5 - 25 KTS
    
38.    KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS
    
39.    FIMP: T2.0 - 30 KTS
    
40.    CIMSS ADT: 25 KTS AT 201800Z
    
41.    CIMSS AIDT: 37 KTS AT 201800Z
    
42.    CIMSS DPRINT: 28 KTS AT 201800Z
    
43. 
    
44. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
    
45.    VWS: 25-30 KTS
    
46.    SST: 25-26 CELSIUS
    
47.    OUTFLOW: WEAK POLEWARD
    
48.    OTHER FACTORS: EXTENSIVE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
    
49. 
    
50. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
51.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
52.    INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
    
53.    INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
    
54. 
    
55. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
56. 
    
57. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
58. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
59. 
    
60. FORECAST DISCUSSION: 02S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
    
61. WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD, ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE
    
62. EAST THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 02S IS
    
63. FORECAST TO MAINTAIN A 35 KNOT INTENSITY, OVERCOMING THE HIGH SHEAR
    
64. AND LOW SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, DUE TO A MOISTENING OF THE VORTEX
    
65. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS DEPICTED BY MULTIPLE MODELS. AFTER TAU
    
66. 36, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL WORSEN AS THE MOISTURE DISAPPEARS AND DRY
    
67. AIR FURTHER DEGRADES THE SYSTEM. AS A RESULT, 02S IS FORECAST TO
    
68. DISSIPATE SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION ISLAND AROUND TAU 48.
    
69. 
    
70. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
    
71. AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK OF 02S WITH A 72 NM CROSS-TRACK
    
72. SPREAD AT TAU 48. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN WORSE AGREEMENT WITH
    
73. MULTIPLE MODELS ACTUALLY INTENSIFYING THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
    
74. 24-36 HOURS. IN PARTICULAR, COAMPS-TC SUGGESTS A 45 KNOT SYSTEM AT
    
75. TAU 24. HAFS-A AND HWRF BOTH SUGGEST A 40 KNOT SYSTEM AT TAU 36.
    
76. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED BELOW CONSENSUS DUE TO THE
    
77. UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT EXPECTED TO HINDER THE CHANCES OF
    
78. REINTENSIFICATION.
    
79. 
    
80. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
81.    TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
    
82.    INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
    
83. NNNN

复制代码

pocketbox

WTIO30 FMEE 210020
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 35/3/20242025
1.A FILLING UP 3 (BHEKI)

2.A POSITION 2024/11/21 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.1 S / 58.7 E
(TWENTY    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/2.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1004 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 305 SW: 230 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/11/21 12 UTC: 21.7 S / 56.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 250 SW: 220 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2024/11/22 00 UTC: 22.3 S / 54.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 260 SW: 230 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SW: 0 NW: 0

36H: 2024/11/22 12 UTC: 23.1 S / 53.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 240 SW: 165 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 0 NW: 0

48H: 2024/11/23 00 UTC: 24.2 S / 52.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 240 SW: 165 NW: 0

60H: 2024/11/23 12 UTC: 25.7 S / 51.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SW: 120 NW: 0

72H: 2024/11/24 00 UTC: 27.4 S / 51.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=1.5 CI=2.0+

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, WITH THE SYSTEM
STILL UNDER STRONG WESTERLY WIND SHEAR ALOFT FOR 25KT, ACCORDING TO
THE LATEST CIMSS DATA. A FEW CONVECTIVE PUFFS HAVE EMERGED, HOWEVER,
WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED IN THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT WITH A TENDENCY TO MOVE TOWARDS THE LLC. THIS RENEWED
ACTIVITY CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO A BAROCLINIC INTERACTION OF THE WARM
BHEKI ENVELOPE WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED WEST OF THE GREAT
MASCARENES. THIS OBSERVATION SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF GALE FORCE
WINDF IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY MODEL ANALYSES
AND THE LATEST OBJECTIVE DATA, SUCH AS AIDT.

BHEKI HEADS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS, SLOWING SLIGHTLY AS IT APPROACHES
THE  MAURITIUS COASTS. DUE TO ITS WEAKENED STATE, ITS MOVEMENT IS
DRIVEN BY LOW-LEVEL FLOWS ON THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SIDES OF THE
MASCARENE RIDGE. HOWEVER, IT SHOULD SLOW DOWN AS IT TURNS MORE
SOUTH-WESTERLY TODAY. THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
TRACK SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE GREAT MASCARENES (REUNION AND
MAURITIUS), BEFORE PLUNGING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND, CAUGHT UP BY THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE
WEST OF THE SYSTEM.

THE 1914Z AMSU DATA CONFIRM THE COLLAPSE SCENARIO OF BHEKI'S HOT
CORE, AND THE DIAGRAMS PHASE ALSO SUGGEST THE PERSISTENCE OF THIS
SCENARIO. THE SYSTEM REMAINS AT THE STAGE OF A FILLING LOW, BUT WITH
A SLIGHT RESUMPTION OF CONVECTION IN THE SOUTH-EAST QUADRANT, WHICH
COULD TEMPORARILY RE-INTENSIFY WINDS AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS THE WARM
ENTRY OF THE UPPER JET. THIS BAROCLINIC EFFECT, COMBINED WITH THE
EFFECT OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, COULD
KEEP NEAR GALE WINDS / GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT.
THIS WEEKEND, HOWEVER, THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM WILL DROP AGAIN,
AND BHEKI SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A REMNANT LOW DEVOID OF ANY PERSISTENT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER, AS SHOWN BY THE FSI OF THE AROME
AND IFS MODELS. LOGICALLY, BHEKI SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS WEEKEND TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE MALAGASY COAST.

EXPECTED IMPACTS ON MAURITIUS :
- WAVES AROUND 4M ONGOING UNTIL LATE MORNING ON THURSDAY, WITH
HIGHEST WAVES UP TO 8M.
RESIDENTS OF MAURITIUS ARE INVITED TO KEEP INFORMED OF THE WEATHER
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE MAURITIUS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

EXPECTED IMPACT ON REUNION :
- WAVES BETWEEN 4M AND 4M50 THURSDAY MORNING UNTIL EARLY EVENING,
WITH HIGHEST WAVES UP TO 9M.=

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：曹迈  签发：聂高臻  2024 年 11 月 21 日 10 时
“贝基”向西偏南方向移动

时       间：21日08时（北京时）

海       域：南印度洋

命       名：“贝基”，BHEKI

中心位置：南纬20.4度、东经58.2度

强度等级：热带低压

最大风力：7级（15米/秒，相当于我国的热带低压）

中心气压：1005百帕

参考位置：毛里求斯路易港东偏南方向约80公里的洋面上

变化过程：过去24小时，“贝基”由11级减弱到7级

预报结论：“贝基”将以每小时20-25公里的速度向西偏南方向移动，强度逐渐增强。

（这是关于“贝基”的最后一期监测公报）


图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2024年11月21日08时00分）

桑美和伊欧凯

pocketbox 发表于 2024-11-21 10:35
全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：曹迈  签发：聂高臻  2024 年 11 月 21 日 10 时
“贝基”向西偏南方向移动

11月TC正面通过毛里求斯也是很难得的

Meow

桑美和伊欧凯 发表于 2024-11-21 10:56
11月TC正面通过毛里求斯也是很难得的

MFR给的头衔是“填塞中的低压”，名义上不算是热带气旋了。

pocketbox

WTIO30 FMEE 210715 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 36/3/20242025
1.A FILLING UP 3 (BHEKI)

2.A POSITION 2024/11/21 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.9 S / 57.5 E
(TWENTY    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SEVEN    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/2.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 305 SW: 230 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/11/21 18 UTC: 22.2 S / 55.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 345 SW: 195 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SW: 55 NW: 55

24H: 2024/11/22 06 UTC: 22.5 S / 54.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 325 SW: 195 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SW: 110 NW: 0

36H: 2024/11/22 18 UTC: 23.3 S / 53.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 305 SW: 185 NW: 0

48H: 2024/11/23 06 UTC: 24.1 S / 52.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 260 SW: 120 NW: 0

60H: 2024/11/23 18 UTC: 25.6 S / 52.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

72H: 2024/11/24 06 UTC: 26.6 S / 52.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=1.5 CI=2.0+

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS
STILL UNDER STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR STRESS FOR 25KT, ACCORDING TO THE
LATEST CIMSS DATA. MODERATE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUED IN THE
MORNING IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. THE ASCAT-B PASS AT
0514Z SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF LARGE GALE ZONES IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY MODEL ANALYSES AND THE LATEST
OBJECTIVE DATA SUCH AS AIDT.

BHEKI CONTINUES ITS SOUTH-WESTERLY COURSE, SLOWING SLIGHTLY AS IT
APPROACHES MAURITIUS. DUE TO ITS WEAKENED STATE, ITS MOVEMENT IS
BEING DRIVEN BY LOW-LEVEL FLOWS ON THE NORTHERN THEN WESTERN SIDE OF
THE MASCAREIGNES ANTICYCLONE. THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A TRAJECTORY SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE GREATER
MASCARENE ISLANDS (REUNION AND MAURITIUS), BEFORE PLUNGING TOWARDS
THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND, CAUGHT UP BY THE
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM.

THE SYSTEM REMAINS AT THE STAGE OF A FILLING LOW, WITH A SLIGHT
RESUMPTION OF CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT, WHICH COULD
TEMPORARILY RE-INTENSIFY WINDS TODAY AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS THE WARM
UPPER-AIR JET. THIS BAROCLINIC EFFECT, COMBINED WITH THE EFFECT OF
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, COULD KEEP THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM VERY COOL AT MINIMUM, AND EVEN
GUSTY. THIS WEEKEND, HOWEVER, THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM WILL DROP
AGAIN, AND BHEKI SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A RESIDUAL SYSTEM DEVOID OF ANY
PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER, AS SHOWN BY THE ISPS
OF THE AROME AND IFS MODELS. LOGICALLY, BHEKI SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS
WEEKEND TO THE SOUTH-EAST OF THE MALAGASY COAST.

EXPECTED IMPACT ON MAURITIUS :
- CYCLONIC SWELL DROPS RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON
RESIDENTS OF MAURITIUS ARE INVITED TO KEEP ABREAST OF THE WEATHER
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE MAURITIUS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

EXPECTED IMPACT ON REUNION :
- WAVES BETWEEN 4M AND 4M50 ON THURSDAY MORNING UNTIL EARLY EVENING,
WITH HIGHEST WAVES UP TO 9M.=

pocketbox

WTXS31 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BHEKI) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BHEKI) WARNING NR 015   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   210600Z --- NEAR 21.1S 57.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 57.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z --- 22.5S 55.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 21.4S 56.9E.
21NOV24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BHEKI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 123
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A RAPDILY WEAKENING SYSTEM, WITH THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) QUICKLY ELONGATING AND BECOMING INCREASINGLY
DISORGANIZED AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF MAURITIUS AND LA REUNION. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, IN THE CENTER OF
THE BROAD AND IRREGULAR LLCC IN THE MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A PARTIAL 210511Z ASCAT-C PASS
SHOWING A BROAD ARC OF 30-35 KNOT WINDS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE CIRCULATION. ADDITIONALLY, AGENCY FIXES FROM PGTW, FIMP AND FMEE
ARE ALL IN THE T1.5 TO T2.0 RANGE AND THE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES RANGE
FROM 29 KNOTS (ADT) TO 36 KNOTS (ADT). THE SYSTEM IS TRAVERSING A VERY
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY COOL SSTS (25-26C), HIGH (40-
45 KNOTS) NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION.
THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THE MASCARENE HIGH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE QUICKLY
DISSIPATING BELOW THE BASIN WARNING THRESHOLD. IT REMAINS POSSIBLE
THAT THE SYSTEM MAY REINTENSIFY AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO SOME STRONG BAROCLINIC FORCING AS IT MOVES NEAR
THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG JET MAX. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE AT 210600Z IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
210600Z IS 15 FEET.//
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