马达加斯加以南强热带气旋第5号“迪克莱迪”(08U/07S.Dikeledi) - 有记载以来纬度最南的ITC，12日登陆马达加斯加北部，13日登陆莫桑比克 - JTWC:100KT

Meow

要开眼了？

理可的呆萌呆毛

先觀望一下，可能是暖區，但不能否定眼區的可能性
總感覺BD的眼，VIS裏面不太對應，有種卷不明白的感覺

觀雲趣

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov ... cal.php?year=latest


衛星掃描有接近C3風力

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 151815
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 36/5/20242025
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION 2025/01/15 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.6 S / 42.2 E
(TWENTY FIVE    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 21 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 963 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 26 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 280 SW: 95 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 205 SW: 65 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SW: 50 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1001 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/16 06 UTC: 28.7 S / 44.8 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 220 SW: 140 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 35

24H: 2025/01/16 18 UTC: 31.3 S / 49.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 205 SW: 140 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2025/01/17 06 UTC: 33.1 S / 54.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 205 SW: 220 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2025/01/17 18 UTC: 33.8 S / 60.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

60H: 2025/01/18 06 UTC: 34.1 S / 65.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 55 SW: 0 NW: 55

72H: 2025/01/18 18 UTC: 34.1 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/01/19 18 UTC: 34.1 S / 75.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 165 SW: 0 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
NOTE : THE SYSTEM'S PAST BEST-TRACK HAS BEEN UPDATED, DOWNGRADING ITS
INTENSITY TO MODERATE TROPICAL STORM AS IT PASSED SOUTH OF MAYOTTE ON
SUNDAY 12TH AND WHILE IT CAME OFF THE MOZAMBICAN COAST ON TUESDAY
14TH, BASED ON AFTERHAND ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS DATA (ASCAT, SMAP).

************

T=CI=5.0-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, DIKELEDI HAS MAINTAINED ITS EYE CONFIGURATION,
BUT WITH DIFFICULTY, WITH AN ILL-DEFINED EYE INVADED BY THE
SURROUNDING DEEP CONVECTION. THE LATEST MICROWAVE DATA ARE OF
MEDIOCRE QUALITY, AND IT IS DIFFICULT TO SEE A CLEAR INTENSIFICATION
OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. A SMOOTH-EYE ANALYSIS OVER THE LAST 3
HOURS GIVES A CI OF 5.0-, LEAVING ESTIMATED WINDS OF AROUND 75KT. THE
RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DIKELEDI HAS NOT YET BEGUN,
BUT COULD OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS.

THE SYSTEM'S TRACK IS DRIVEN BY THE MID-TROPOSPHERE FLOW BETWEEN A
RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH. THERE IS RELATIVELY
LITTLE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE SHAPE OF THE TRACK, WHICH PASSES SOME
200 KM OFF THE COAST OF MADAGASCAR. NEVERTHELESS, THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE DISPERSION IN THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT. THE RSMC FORECAST
IS CLOSER TO THE IFS SCENARIO, WHICH IS FASTER AND MORE CLOSELY
ALIGNED WITH THE INITIAL STATE. DIKELEDI SHOULD EVACUATE SOUTH OF 30S
LATITUDE FROM THURSDAY EVENING, CONTINUING ITS EASTWARD TRACK GUIDED
BY THE EASTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
BASIN. IN THIS CONFIGURATION, DIKELEDI WILL NO LONGER PRESENT A
DIRECT DANGER TO LAND FROM THE MORNING OF THURSDAY.

STILL A LOT OF DISPERSION IN GUIDANCE INTENSITY FORECASTS. THE
SCENARIO FAVORED BY THE RSMC IS BASED ON THE GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS AVAILABLE TO DIKELEDI UNTIL THURSDAY, WITH HIGH OCEAN
POTENTIAL, DECREASING SHEAR AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. A RAPID
INTENSIFICATION INTO AN INTENSE CYCLONE IS THEREFORE ENVISAGED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN ADDITION, THE EVENTUALITY OF AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE COULD LEAD TO FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. FROM
THURSDAY ONWARDS, A WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN,
BECOMING MORE IMPACTFUL FROM THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY, CAUSING
INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR. THIS INCREASE IN SHEAR COMBINED WITH COOLER
WATERS FROM FRIDAY SHOULD WEAKEN AND ASYMMETRIZE THE SYSTEM.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LINKED TO THE SYSTEM WILL BE WELL ATTENUATED, AND
IT IS IN A POST-TROPICAL CONFIGURATION THAT DIKELEDI WILL CONTINUE
ITS EASTWARD TRACK AT THE END OF THE WEEK, MAINTAINING A FAIRLY LOW
INTENSITY BEFORE GRADUALLY FILLING IN BY SUNDAY.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :

SOUTHWEST MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE) :
- GALE FORCE WINDS ONGOING AND EXPECTED UNTIL THURSDAY EARLY MORNING.
- CUMULATIVE RAINFALL NEAR 100MM IN 24H ALONG THE COAST.
- VERY ROUGH SEAS WITH AVERAGE WAVES BETWEEN 4 AND 6M. MAXIMUM WAVES
OF 10-12M POSSIBLE. IMPROVEMENT ON THURSDAY.
- RESIDENTS ARE INVITED TO KEEP INFORMED OF WEATHER FORECASTS THROUGH
THEIR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.=

ygsj24

WTXS31 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 013   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   151800Z --- NEAR 25.7S 42.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 25.7S 42.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z --- 28.6S 44.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 21 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z --- 31.1S 48.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 21 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z --- 32.7S 53.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 21 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z --- 33.5S 58.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 19 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z --- 34.1S 67.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 26.4S 42.9E.
15JAN25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
239 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 151800Z IS 963 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
160900Z AND 162100Z.
//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 152100
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING
   
4. NR 013//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 25.7S 42.3E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 85 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 239 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 19 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 40 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
    
18. COMPACT TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 12
    
19. HOURS. AN EYE IS NOW EVIDENT IN EIR IMAGERY, THOUGH ONLY
    
20. INTERMITTENTLY. THE UNDERLYING EYEWALL STRUCTURE IS WELL-DEFINED,
    
21. CIRCULAR, AND CLOSED IN A 151841Z GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE, AND A 1543Z
    
22. RCM-1 SAR PASS REVEALS A COHERENT CORE WIND FIELD, STRONGEST IN THE
    
23. EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS REACHING ITS
    
24. APEX AS A JET STREAK ENTRANCE REGION PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH. THE
    
25. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 85 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF AGENCY DVORAK
    
26. INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE-BASED INTENSITY
    
27. ESTIMATES, ALL RANGING FROM 77 TO 88 KT.
    
28. 
    
29. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
    
30. 
    
31. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF
    
32. MADAGASCAR
    
33. 
    
34. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
35.    PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
    
36.    KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS
    
37.    DEMS: T4.5 - 77 KTS
    
38.    FMEE: T5.0 - 90 KTS
    
39.    CIMSS SATCON: 88 KTS AT 151612Z
    
40.    CIMSS ADT: 79 KTS AT 151800Z
    
41. 
    
42. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
    
43.    VWS: 10-15 KTS
    
44.    SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
    
45.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
    
46. 
    
47. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
48.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
49.    INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
    
50.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
51. 
    
52. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
53. 
    
54. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
55. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
56. 
    
57. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) IS MOVING
    
58. QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND THE POLEWARD FLANK OF THE SUBTROPICAL
    
59. RIDGE TO ITS EAST. THE CYCLONE HAS TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF VERY WARM SEA
    
60. SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND A
    
61. COMPACT CORE WIND FIELD, RESULTING IN INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST
    
62. 12 HOURS. SOME FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 12
    
63. HOURS, BUT DIKELEDI IS NOW CROSSING THE MERIDIONAL SST GRADIENT,
    
64. AND MAY BE OVER WATERS COOLER THAN 26 DEGREES CELSIUS BY 24 HOURS.
    
65. THE WINDOW FOR INTENSIFICATION IS THUS CLOSING QUICKLY, AND THE
    
66. CYCLONE MAY HAVE ALREADY PEAKED. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
    
67. FLAT FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS, AND THEN SHOWS STEADY WEAKENING DUE TO
    
68. COOLER WATERS AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AS DIKELEDI APPROACHES
    
69. THE MID-LATITUDE JET. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
    
70. AROUND 36 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH THE JET AND
    
71. ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE, EVENTUALLY COMPLETING BY 72 HOURS. A
    
72. GRADUAL TURN IN STORM HEADING FROM SOUTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD IS
    
73. EXPECTED AFTER 24 HOURS DUE TO MOSTLY ZONAL JET FLOW SOUTH OF THE
    
74. STORM DURING THAT TIME.
    
75. 
    
76. MODEL DISCUSSION: THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS JUST NORTH OF THE
    
77. MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, WHICH HAS SHIFTED 30-40 NM SOUTHWARD SINCE
    
78. THE PREVIOUS WARNING. CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IS TIGHT, BUT ALONG-TRACK
    
79. SPREAD GROWS SIGNIFICANTLY BY 72 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES
    
80. THE MID-LATITUDE JET. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
    
81. MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH MEMBERS
    
82. AGREEING WELL ON TERMINAL DECAY OF THE CYCLONE.
    
83. 
    
84. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
85.    TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
    
86.    INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
    
87. NNNN

复制代码

pocketbox

WTIO30 FMEE 160039
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 37/5/20242025
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION 2025/01/16 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.3 S / 43.3 E
(TWENTY SEVEN    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 20 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 948 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 280 SW: 95 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 205 SW: 65 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SW: 50 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1001 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/16 12 UTC: 30.1 S / 46.9 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 215 SW: 130 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 30

24H: 2025/01/17 00 UTC: 32.4 S / 51.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 205 SW: 150 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 65 SW: 35 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 30 NW: 30

36H: 2025/01/17 12 UTC: 33.9 S / 57.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 165 SW: 195 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 55 SW: 0 NW: 55

48H: 2025/01/18 00 UTC: 34.4 S / 63.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 110 SW: 75 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 55 SW: 0 NW: 55

60H: 2025/01/18 12 UTC: 34.4 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 165 SW: 195 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 140

72H: 2025/01/19 00 UTC: 34.3 S / 72.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 0 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5

DURING THE PREVIOUS ANALYSIS TIME, THE SAR-RCM PASS OF 1543UTC
PRESENTED EXCESSIVE VMAX VALUES. ANALYSIS OF THE WIND PROFILES WOULD
DEFINE A VMAX IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE ORDER OF 82KT IN 1MIN
WIND OR 72KT IN 10MIN WIND. THIS VALUE WOULD THEN VALIDATE THE DVORAK
ESTIMATE OF 75KT FOR A CI OF 5.0- MADE AT THE PREVIOUS ANALYSIS TIME.
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, DIKELEDI HAS MAINTAINED ITS EYE CONFIGURATION,
BUT WITH AN EYE THAT IS STILL STRUGGLING TO FREE ITSELF FROM
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AT ITS CENTER. THE GPM PASS AT 1856UTC AND THE
GCOM-W PASS AT 2152UTC SHOW A CLEAR IMPROVEMENT IN CIRCULATION. THIS
IS REFLECTED IN INFRA-RED IMAGES OF COLDER, WIDER CLOUD TOPS OF THE
EYEWALL. IN THESE CONDITIONS, A DVORAK ANALYSIS OVER THE WHOLE PERIOD
GIVES A T OF 5.5, PLACING DIKELEDI AT THE STAGE OF AN INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE AT 00UTC, WITH ESTIMATED WINDS OF AROUND 90KT. THIS
ESTIMATE COULD REACH 95KT IF WE LIMIT OURSELVES TO THE LAST 3 HOURS,
AS RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS UNDERWAY.

NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST FOR LESS THAN 48 HOURS: THE SYSTEM'S
TRACK IS STEERED BY THE MID-TROPOSPHERE STEERING FLOW BETWEEN A RIDGE
TO THE EAST AND A TROUGH CIRCULATING FURTHER SOUTH. THERE IS
RELATIVELY LITTLE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE SHAPE OF THE TRACK.
NEVERTHELESS, THERE IS A WIDE DISPERSION IN THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT,
WHICH MEANS THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE OVER 48 HOURS. THE RSMC
FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE FASTER IFS SCENARIO. DIKELEDI SHOULD
EVACUATE SOUTH OF 30S LATITUDE FROM THURSDAY EVENING, CONTINUING ITS
EASTWARD TRACK GUIDED BY THE EASTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE BASIN. IN THIS CONFIGURATION, DIKELEDI
WILL NO LONGER PRESENT A DIRECT DANGER TO LAND FROM THE MORNING OF
THURSDAY.

STILL A LOT OF DISPERSION IN GUIDANCE INTENSITY FORECASTS, ESPECIALLY
OVER SHORT TIME SCALES. THE SCENARIO FAVORED BY THE RSMC IS BASED ON
THE GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT DIKELEDI UNTIL
THURSDAY, WITH HIGH OCEAN POTENTIAL, DECREASING SHEAR AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE. INTENSIFICATION IS UNDERWAY AND SHOULD CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FROM THURSDAY ONWARDS, A WESTERLY SHEAR
SHOULD GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN, BECOMING MORE IMPACTFUL FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT TO FRIDAY, CAUSING INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR. THIS INCREASE IN
SHEAR COMBINED WITH COOLER WATERS FROM FRIDAY SHOULD WEAKEN AND
ASYMMETRIZE THE SYSTEM. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LINKED TO THE SYSTEM WILL
BE WELL ATTENUATED, AND IT IS IN A POST-TROPICAL CONFIGURATION THAT
DIKELEDI WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD TRAJECTORY TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK, MAINTAINING A FAIRLY LOW INTENSITY BEFORE GRADUALLY FILLING IN
BY SUNDAY.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :

SOUTHWEST MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE) :
- GALE FORCE WINDS ONGOING AND EXPECTED UNTIL THURSDAY EARLY MORNING.
- CUMULATIVE RAINFALL NEAR 100MM IN 24H ALONG THE COAST.
- VERY ROUGH SEAS WITH AVERAGE WAVES BETWEEN 4 AND 6M. MAXIMUM WAVES
OF 10-12M POSSIBLE. IMPROVEMENT ON THURSDAY.
- RESIDENTS ARE INVITED TO KEEP INFORMED OF WEATHER FORECASTS THROUGH
THEIR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.=

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：向纯怡  签发：张 玲  2025 年 01 月 16 日 10 时
“迪克莱迪”将远离马达加斯加

时       间：16日08时（北京时）

海       域：南印度洋

命       名：“迪克莱迪”，DIKELEDI

中心位置：南纬27.3度、东经43.3度

强度等级：热带气旋

最大风力：15级（46米/秒，相当于我国的强台风级）

中心气压：948百帕

参考位置：马达加斯加陶拉纳鲁西偏南方向约450公里的洋面上

变化过程：过去24小时，“迪克莱迪”由11级加强到14级

预报结论：“迪克莱迪”将以每小时40公里左右的速度向东南方向快速移动，强度逐渐减弱。“迪克莱迪”将以每小时35公里左右的速度向东南方向移动，强度还将有所增强，16日白天将从马达加斯加以南海面掠过，以后逐渐远离马达加斯加，转向东偏南方向移动，强度逐渐减弱。16日夜间开始“迪克莱迪”对马达加斯加的影响趋于结束。

受其影响，16日14时到17日14时，马达加斯加西南部沿海将有大到暴雨，莫桑比克海峡、马达加斯加西部、南部和东部沿海将有7-8级大风，马达加斯加以南部分海面的风力可达9-11级，“迪克莱迪”中心经过的附近海域风力可达12-15级。


图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年01月16日08时00分）

---

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：向纯怡  签发：张 玲  2025 年 01 月 16 日 10 时
“迪克莱迪” 将远离马达加斯加

时       间：16日08时（北京时，下同）

海       域：南印度洋

命       名：“迪克莱迪”，DIKELEDI

中心位置：南纬27.3度、东经43.3度

强度等级：热带气旋

最大风力：15级（46米/秒，相当于我国的强台风级）

中心气压：948百帕

参考位置：马达加斯加陶拉纳鲁西偏北方向约450公里的莫桑比克海峡内

变化过程：过去24小时，“迪克莱迪”强度由11级加强为15级

预报结论：“迪克莱迪”将以每小时35~40公里左右的速度向东南方向移动，强度还将有所增强，16日白天将从马达加斯加以南海面掠过，以后逐渐远离马达加斯加，转向东偏南方向移动，强度逐渐减弱。16日夜间开始“迪克莱迪”对马达加斯加的影响趋于结束。

受其影响，16日14时到17日14时，马达加斯加西南部沿海将有大到暴雨，莫桑比克海峡、马达加斯加西部、南部和东部沿海将有7~8级大风，马达加斯加以南部分海面的风力可达9~11级，“迪克莱迪”中心经过的附近海域风力可达12~15级。


图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年01月16日08时00分）

Leonardo

TPXS12 PGTW 160039

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI)

B. 15/2345Z

C. 27.41S

D. 43.26E

E. THREE/MET9

F. T5.5/5.5/D2.0/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY B YIELDS
AN E# OF 5.5. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR B, TO YIELD A DT OF 6.0.
MET YIELDS 4.5. PT YIELDS 5.0. DBO CONSTRAINTS.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   NEVAREZ

Leonardo

TXXS26 KNES 160019
TCSSIO

A.  07S (DIKELEDI)

B.  15/2330Z

C.  27.4S

D.  43.3E

E.  ONE/MET-9

F.  T5.5/5.5

G.  IR/EIR/SWIR

H.  REMARKS...OW EYE SURROUNDED AND EMBEDDED IN B YIELDS A DT=6.0
INCLUDING +0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET=5.0. PT=5.5. THE FT IS BASED ON
CONSTRAINTS LIMITING 12 HR DEVELOPMENT TO NO MORE THAN T=1.5. SIX HR
AVERAGING DID NOT JUSTIFY BREAKING CONSTRAINTS.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    NIL


...LEE

=

Leonardo