‌罗德里格斯岛东北强热带气旋第3号“贝基”(02S.Bheki) - 风眼构建，西南行进，趋向毛里求斯 - MFR:105KT JTWC:115KT

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 211844
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 38/3/20242025
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BHEKI)

2.A POSITION 2024/11/21 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.0 S / 55.9 E
(TWENTY TWO    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FIVE    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 335 SW: 215 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SW: 95 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/11/22 06 UTC: 23.0 S / 54.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 295 SW: 205 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2024/11/22 18 UTC: 23.7 S / 53.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 305 SW: 195 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SW: 110 NW: 0

36H: 2024/11/23 06 UTC: 24.5 S / 52.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 155 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 0

48H: 2024/11/23 18 UTC: 25.5 S / 51.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 75 NW: 0

60H: 2024/11/24 06 UTC: 26.9 S / 51.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 0

72H: 2024/11/24 18 UTC: 27.7 S / 52.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0 CI=3.0

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, BHEKI'S CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. THIS IS SHOWN BY THE LATEST
SSMIS MICROWAVE PICTURES AND THE IR SATELLITE IMAGE. WITH THE SYSTEM
AT THE WARM ENTRANCE TO THE UPPER-AIR JET, THIS BAROCLINIC EFFECT,
COMBINED WITH THE EFFECT OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, ENABLED THE GALE TO BE MAINTAINED. DVORAK'S
SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT BHEKI IS STILL IN THE MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM STAGE, WITH MAXIMUM WINDS ESTIMATED AT BETWEEN 40 AND
45 KT.

BHEKI CONTINUES ITS SOUTH-WESTERLY TRACK. ITS MOVEMENT IS DRIVEN BY
LOW-LEVEL FLOWS ON THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SIDES OF THE MASCAREIGNES
ANTICYCLONE. THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TRACK
SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF REUNION, BEFORE PLUNGING TOWARDS SOUTHERN
LATITUDES AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND, CAUGHT UP BY THE MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM.

BEHKI SHOULD MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY TEMPORARILY AS LONG AS IT
BENEFITS FROM BAROCLINIC INTERACTION WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL JET AND
STILL-WARM WATERS. IT WILL THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS, AS SHOWN BY THE ISPS OF THE AROME AND IFS MODELS. THIS
WEEKEND, IN A HIGHLY SHEARED CONTEXT, BHEKI SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A
RESIDUAL SYSTEM DEVOID OF ANY PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR THE
CENTER, THEN DISSIPATE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE MALAGASY COAST.

THIS SYSTEM NO LONGER GENERATES IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND.=

ygsj24

WTXS31 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BHEKI) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BHEKI) WARNING NR 016   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   211800Z --- NEAR 22.1S 56.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.1S 56.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z --- 22.9S 54.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 23.7S 53.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 24.6S 52.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 25.7S 52.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 22.3S 55.7E.
21NOV24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BHEKI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 104
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. AVAILABLE METEOROLOGICAL DATA SUPPORTS
THE REGENERATION OF TC 02S, THEREFORE, JTWC IS RESUMING WARNINGS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 211800Z IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z AND 222100Z.//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 212100
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BHEKI) WARNING NR
   
4. 016//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 22.1S 56.0E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 104 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ST DENIS
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
18. CYCLONE 02S WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
    
19. (LLCC) AND A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION BEING SHEARED OFF TO THE
    
20. SOUTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 02S IS IN AN
    
21. UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH (40-45 KTS) VERTICAL
    
22. WIND SHEAR, SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, AND COOL (25-26 C) SEA
    
23. SURFACE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
    
24. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BOTH PLACED WITH HIGH
    
25. CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 211740Z ASCAT-C IMAGE SHOWING 35-40 KNOT
    
26. WINDS WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY.
    
27. 
    
28. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA
    
29. 
    
30. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL
    
31. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
    
32. 
    
33. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
34.    PGTW: T1.5 - 25 KTS
    
35.    KNES: T1.0 - 25 KTS
    
36.    DEMS: T1.5 - 25 KTS
    
37.    FMEE: T3.0 - 45 KTS
    
38.    FIMP: T2.5 - 35 KTS
    
39.    CIMSS SATCON: 42 KTS AT 211900Z
    
40.    CIMSS ADT: 39 KTS AT 211900Z
    
41.    CIMSS AIDT: 40 KTS AT 211900Z
    
42.    
    
43. 
    
44. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
    
45.    VWS: 40-45 KTS
    
46.    SST: 25-26 CELSIUS
    
47.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
    
48.    OTHER FACTORS: SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
    
49. 
    
50. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
51.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
52.    INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
    
53.    INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
    
54. 
    
55. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
56. 
    
57. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: RESTARTED WARNINGS DUE TO HIGHER
    
58. INTENSITY THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
    
59. 
    
60. FORECAST DISCUSSION: 02S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY
    
61. SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DRY AIR
    
62. AND HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTING ON THE
    
63. SYSTEM, HOWEVER THE STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A JET MAX
    
64. DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM WILL ENABLE A SLOWER
    
65. WEAKENING TREND. AS A RESULT, 02S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BELOW
    
66. TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AROUND TAU 48. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE
    
67. SHEAR AND DRY AIR WILL RIP THE VORTEX APART SOONER THAN TAU 48 AS
    
68. 02S MOVES FURTHER POLEWARD THOUGH.
    
69. 
    
70. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
    
71. REGARDING THE TRACK OF 02S WITH A 71 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU
    
72. 48. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS WITH HIGH
    
73. CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT 02S WILL MAINTAIN
    
74. INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 24 AND THEN WEAKEN THEREAFTER. THE JTWC
    
75. INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED A BIT BELOW CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 24
    
76. DUE TO THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND THEN CLOSE TO CONSENSUS
    
77. THEREAFTER WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
    
78. 
    
79. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
80.    TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
    
81.    INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
    
82. NNNN

复制代码

pocketbox

WTIO30 FMEE 220048
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 39/3/20242025
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BHEKI)

2.A POSITION 2024/11/22 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.2 S / 54.7 E
(TWENTY TWO    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FOUR    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/3.0/W 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 65 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 240 SW: 120 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SW: 85 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/11/22 12 UTC: 22.9 S / 53.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 270 SW: 155 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2024/11/23 00 UTC: 23.8 S / 52.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 230 SW: 205 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 85 NW: 0

36H: 2024/11/23 12 UTC: 25.1 S / 51.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 260 SW: 110 NW: 0

48H: 2024/11/24 00 UTC: 26.4 S / 51.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SW: 0 NW: 0

60H: 2024/11/24 12 UTC: 27.5 S / 51.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW


2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.0 CI=3.0-

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, BHEKI'S CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY. THE ASCAT SWATH AT 1741Z ALLOWS US TO ACCURATELY
LOCATE THE CENTER, AND POSITIONS THE STRONGEST WINDS SOUTH OF IT,
WITH A MAXIMUM CORRECTED INTENSITY OF 43KT. BHEKI IS THEREFORE
MAINTAINED AS A TROPICAL STORM DUE TO A DVORACK ANALYSIS STILL AT
3.0- AND A MAXIMUM WIND INTENSITY OF 40KT IS ASSUMED. BUT, INFLUENCED
BY THE BAROCLINIC EFFECTS OF THE UPPER-AIR JET, IT HAS CLEARLY BEGUN
TO ADOPT POST-TROPICAL FEATURES.

BHEKI HAS SLIGHTLY SHIFTED HER COURSE TO THE WEST, PROBABLY DUE TO
THE ISLAND EFFECT. IT SHOULD THEN CONTINUE ITS SOUTH-WESTERLY COURSE.
ITS MOVEMENT IS DRIVEN BY LOW-LEVEL FLOWS ON THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
SIDES OF THE MASCAREIGNES ANTICYCLONE. THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A TRACK SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF REUNION, BEFORE
PLUNGING TOWARDS SOUTHERN LATITUDES AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND,
CAUGHT UP BY THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM.

BEHKI SHOULD MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY TEMPORARILY AS LONG AS IT
BENEFITS FROM BAROCLINIC INTERACTION WITH THE UPPER JET AND
STILL-WARM WATERS, WHILE ADOPTING POST-TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THEN
IT WILL THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, AS SHOWN BY THE
ISPS OF THE AROME AND IFS MODELS. THIS WEEKEND, IN A HIGHLY SHEARED
CONTEXT, BHEKI SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A RESIDUAL SYSTEM DEVOID OF ANY
PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER, THEN DISSIPATE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE MALAGASY COAST.

THIS SYSTEM NO LONGER GENERATES IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND.=

---

WTIO30 FMEE 220147 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 39/3/20242025
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BHEKI)

2.A POSITION 2024/11/22 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.2 S / 54.7 E
(TWENTY TWO    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FOUR    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/3.0/W 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 65 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 240 SW: 120 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SW: 85 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/11/22 12 UTC: 22.9 S / 53.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 270 SW: 155 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2024/11/23 00 UTC: 23.8 S / 52.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 230 SW: 205 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 85 NW: 0

36H: 2024/11/23 12 UTC: 25.1 S / 51.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 260 SW: 110 NW: 0

48H: 2024/11/24 00 UTC: 26.4 S / 51.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SW: 0 NW: 0

60H: 2024/11/24 12 UTC: 27.5 S / 51.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW


2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.0 CI=3.0-

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, BHEKI'S CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY. IT HAS SHIFTED SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE CENTER OF THE
SYSTEM, WHICH SHOWS A SHEARED CONFIGURATION AND WARMER CLOUD TOPS ON
THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES. THE ASCAT SWATH AT 1741Z ALLOWS US TO
ACCURATELY LOCATE THE CENTER, AND POSITIONS THE STRONGEST WINDS TO
THE SOUTH OF IT, WITH A MAXIMUM CORRECTED INTENSITY OF 43KT. BHEKI IS
THEREFORE MAINTAINED AS A TROPICAL STORM DUE TO A DVORACK ANALYSIS
STILL AT 3.0- AND A MAXIMUM WIND INTENSITY OF 40KT IS RETAINED. BUT,
INFLUENCED BY THE BAROCLINIC EFFECTS OF THE UPPER-AIR JET, IT HAS
CLEARLY BEGUN TO ADOPT POST-TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.

BHEKI HAS SLIGHTLY SHIFTED HER TRACK TO THE WEST, PROBABLY DUE TO THE
ISLAND EFFECT. IT SHOULD THEN CONTINUE ITS SOUTH-WESTERLY TRACK. ITS
MOTION IS DRIVEN BY LOW-LEVEL FLOWS ON THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SIDES
OF THE MASCAREIGNES ANTICYCLONE. THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A TRACK SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF REUNION, BEFORE
PLUNGING TOWARDS SOUTHERN LATITUDES AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND,
CAUGHT UP BY THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM.

BEHKI SHOULD MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY TEMPORARILY AS LONG AS IT
BENEFITS FROM BAROCLINIC INTERACTION WITH THE UPPER JET AND
STILL-WARM WATERS, WHILE ADOPTING POST-TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THEN
IT WILL THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, AS SHOWN BY THE
ISPS OF THE AROME AND IFS MODELS. THIS WEEKEND, IN A HIGHLY SHEARED
CONTEXT, BHEKI SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A RESIDUAL SYSTEM DEVOID OF ANY
PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER, THEN DISSIPATE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE MALAGASY COAST.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF MORE THAN 100MM/72H ARE STILL EXPECTED ON THE
ISLAND OF MAURITIUS.=

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：曹迈  签发：张 玲  2024 年 11 月 22 日 10 时
“贝基”向西南方向移动

时       间：22日08时（北京时）

海       域：南印度洋

命       名：“贝基”，BHEKI

中心位置：南纬22.2度、东经54.7度

强度等级：热带风暴

最大风力：8级（20米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级）

中心气压：1000百帕

参考位置：马达加斯加马纳卡拉偏东方向约690公里的洋面上

变化过程：过去24小时，“贝基”强度维持不变

预报结论：“贝基”将以每小时15公里左右的速度向西南方向移动，强度变化不大。


图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2024年11月22日08时00分）

pocketbox

WTIO30 FMEE 220627
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 40/3/20242025
1.A REMNANT LOW 3 (BHEKI)

2.A POSITION 2024/11/22 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.0 S / 54.3 E
(TWENTY TWO    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FOUR    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 335 SW: 240 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/11/22 18 UTC: 22.8 S / 53.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 325 SW: 220 NW: 0

24H: 2024/11/23 06 UTC: 24.2 S / 52.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

36H: 2024/11/23 18 UTC: 25.7 S / 52.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

48H: 2024/11/24 06 UTC: 26.9 S / 52.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DISSIPATING



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
IN THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF BHEKI HAS
COLLAPSED CONSIDERABLY AND IS NOW VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT. THE FEW
ATTEMPTS AT CONVECTION REMAIN VERY FAR FROM THE LOW-LYING CENTER,
WHICH IS CLEARLY VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. BHEKI HAS THEREFORE
BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A REMNANT LOW WITH 35KT WINDS, IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE ONLY.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE REMNANTS OF BHEKI ARE CAUGHT UP IN THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION, MOVING TEMPORARILY WEST-SOUTH-WEST OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MASCAREIGNES
ANTICYCLONE. THE ANTICYCLONE THEN SHIFTS EASTWARDS, ALLOWING THE
REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM TO PLUNGE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES THIS
WEEKEND.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SHEAR ANALYZED BY CIMSS AT 45KT HAS
DEFINITIVELY FINISHED OFF THE BHEKI SYSTEM. THE REMNANTS OF THE
SYSTEM SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

IN TERMS OF IMPACT, REUNION AND MAURITIUS REMAIN IN THE WET AREA IN
THE WAKE OF BHEKI, WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS. RESIDENTS ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW WEATHER DEVELOPMENTS
ON THEIR ISLANDS VIA THEIR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICES.

LAST BULLETIN UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION ISSUED BY RSMC LA REUNION
REGARDS THIS SYSTEM. FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
AVAILABLE IN THE DAILY BULLETIN ON TROPICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN ISSUED AT 12Z (AWIO20 FMEE).=

pocketbox

WTXS31 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BHEKI) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BHEKI) WARNING NR 017   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   220600Z --- NEAR 22.0S 54.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.0S 54.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 22.4S 53.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 23.7S 52.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 22.1S 54.1E.
22NOV24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BHEKI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 103
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 220600Z IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNING AT
222100Z.
//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 220900
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BHEKI) WARNING NR
   
4. 017//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 22.0S 54.4E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 103 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 06 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY
    
18. EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) SOUTHWEST OF LA
    
19. REUNION. A 220214Z WSF-M COLOR ENHANCED 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
    
20. SHOWED WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL BANDS WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LLCC,
    
21. WITH THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION AT THAT TIME BEING LIMITED TO
    
22. THE DISTANT SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. OVERNIGHT, CONVECTION HAD
    
23. EXPLODED AND EXPANDED IN AREAL EXTENT, DRIVING A REGENERATION IN
    
24. WARNINGS. HOWEVER, OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, THAT CONVECTION HAS
    
25. COLLAPSED, A NOW THE MSI DEPICTS ONLY MODEST CONVECTION DEVELOPING
    
26. ALONG THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE LINES TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC.
    
27. CIMSS UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS, AND MODEL FIELD REVIEW, REVEAL A HIGHLY
    
28. UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE SYSTEM IS FULLY EMBEDDED UNDER 45-55
    
29. KNOT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, SSTS ARE HOVERING NEAR 26C AND DRY AIR
    
30. COMPLETELY ENGULFS THE LLCC ABOVE 700MB. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM LIES
    
31. AT THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET MAXIMUM AT 200MB, WHICH IS
    
32. PROVIDING SOME BAROCLINIC FORCING, AND ALLOWING FOR THE CONSISTENT
    
33. BURSTS OF CONVECTION, WHICH IS KEEPING THE INTENSITY UP. THE
    
34. INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
    
35. BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC AND AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWING
    
36. 35-40 KNOT WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE OF THE SYSTEM.
    
37. 
    
38. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA
    
39. 
    
40. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE
    
41. OF THE MASCARENE HIGH, MODIFIED BY THE PROXIMITY TO LA REUNION.
    
42. 
    
43. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
44.    PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
    
45.    CIMSS SATCON: 34 KTS AT 22530Z
    
46.    CIMSS ADT: 27 KTS AT 220600Z
    
47.    CIMSS AIDT: 39 KTS AT 220600Z
    
48.    CIMSS D-MINT: 31 KTS AT 220225Z
    
49.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 28 KTS AT 220530Z
    
50. 
    
51. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE
    
52.    VWS: 45-50 KTS
    
53.    SST: 25-26 CELSIUS
    
54.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
    
55.    OTHER FACTORS: DRY MID-LEVEL AIR ENGULFING THE SYSTEM.
    
56. 
    
57. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
58.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
59.    INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
    
60.    INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
    
61. 
    
62. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
63. 
    
64. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
65. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
66. 
    
67. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 02S CLEARLY HAS DEVELOPED FEATURES
    
68. ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE BUT RETAINS OTHER FEATURES
    
69. MORE TROPICAL IN NATURE. THE SYSTEM REMAINS WARM CORE, BUT THE
    
70. DEPTH OF THE WARM CORE IS LIMITED TO BELOW 700MB. SSTS REMAIN
    
71. BORDERLINE AT 26C AND THE SYSTEM IS MOVING UNDER JET-LEVEL
    
72. WESTERLIES ALOFT. ALL IN ALL, THE CURRENT ASSESSMENT IS THAT THE
    
73. SYSTEM IS PREDOMINANTLY TROPICAL IN NATURE, WITH SOME HYBRID
    
74. ASPECTS. AFTER HAVING SLOWED DOWN AND STALLED SOUTHWEST OF LA
    
75. REUNION, DUE TO TERRAIN INFLUENCES ON THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW,
    
76. THE SYSTEM HAS ALREADY STARTED TO MOVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST BASED
    
77. ON THE LATEST MSI LOOP. THE FURTHER AWAY IT GETS FROM LA REUNION,
    
78. THE MORE IT WILL ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST, ALONG THE
    
79. WESTERN SIDE OF THE MASCARENE HIGH. THE LATEST IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS
    
80. WHAT COULD BE THE START OF ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS
    
81. STARTED TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER, SIMILAR TO 24
    
82. HOURS AGO. THE SYSTEM STILL SITS NEAR THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A
    
83. 200MB JET MAX, WHICH COULD STILL PROVIDE ENOUGH BAROCLINIC ENERGY
    
84. TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE MESOSCALE MODELS ALSO SHOW
    
85. THIS AND INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN 35 KNOT
    
86. INTENSITY, OR EVEN SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY, OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. BUT
    
87. AFTER THAT, THE JET MAX MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST, AND THE SYSTEM
    
88. MOVES UNDER EVEN DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR. TC 02S WILL WEAKEN BELOW 35
    
89. KNOTS BY TAU 24 UNDER THESE HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS.
    
90. 
    
91. MODEL DISCUSSION: ALL AVAILABLE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEANCE THAT
    
92. TC 02S WILL START TO MOVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST IMMINENTLY AND
    
93. CONTINUE ON THAT COURSE THROUGH THE SHORT DURATION OF THE FORECAST
    
94. PERIOD. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS MIXED, WITH THE HWRF SHOWING THE
    
95. SYSTEM INTENSIFYING UP TO 45 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS BEFORE
    
96. WEAKENING THEREAFTER, WHILE THE HAFS-A IS FLAT FOR 12 HOURS THEN
    
97. RAPIDLY WEAKENS THROUGH BEYOND THAT. THE JTWC FORECAST CLOSELY
    
98. FOLLOWS THE HAFS-A THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
    
99. 
    
100. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
     
101.    TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
     
102.    INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
     
103. NNNN

复制代码

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：曹迈  签发：张 玲  2024 年 11 月 22 日 18 时
“贝基”向南偏西方向移动

时       间：22日14时（北京时）

海       域：南印度洋

命       名：“贝基”，BHEKI

中心位置：南纬22.0度、东经54.3度

强度等级：热带风暴

最大风力：8级（18米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级）

中心气压：1003百帕

参考位置：马达加斯加马纳卡拉偏东方向约650公里的洋面上

变化过程：过去24小时，“贝基”强度维持不变

预报结论：“贝基”将以每小时10-15公里的速度向南偏西方向移动，强度变化不大。


图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2024年11月22日14时00分）

ygsj24

---

WTXS31 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BHEKI) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BHEKI) WARNING NR 018   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   221800Z --- NEAR 22.9S 53.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.9S 53.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 23.2S 53.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    ---
REMARKS:
22NOV24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BHEKI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 176
NM SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM MEANDERING AND SPINNING DOWN. MORE STRATIFORM FIELDS ARE
SPREADING OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AND THE REMAINING DEEP
CONVECTION IS BEING SHEARED AND DISPLACED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THE SYSTEM IS ON THE EDGE OF MINIMALLY SUBSTANTIVE 26C DEGREE WATERS,
BUT DRY AIR IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY ENTRAINED INTO THE ENVIRONMENT.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HEDGED A BIT TO THE GENEROUS SIDE BASED
ON AUTOMATED ASSESSMENTS OF 39KTS FROM AIDT AND 38KTS FROM THE
CIMSS SATELLITE CONSENSUS. ADT AND DPRINT ASSESSMENTS OF 30KTS FACTOR
IN FOR A REASONABLE AVERAGE OF 35KTS. DUE TO THE STRONG DISPLACEMENT
OF THE DEEP CONVECTION, THE MORE LOWER SUBJECTIVE DVORAKS ARE
DISMISSED. THIS ONE IS TOAST FOLKS. TIME TO LET IT GO.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 221800Z IS
1003 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 15 FEET.//
NNNN

ygsj24

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：渠鸿宇  签发：董林  2024 年 11 月 23 日 06 时

“贝基”减弱为热带低压

时       间：23日08时（北京时）

海       域：南印度洋

命       名：“贝基”，BHEKI

变化过程：“贝基”减弱为热带低压。

（这是关于“贝基”的最后一期监测公报）

Leonardo

TPXS10 PGTW 231148

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BHEKI)

B. 23/1130Z

C. 23.36S

D. 51.72E

E. THREE/MET9

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO
CLASSIFY.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   EL-NAZLY