马达加斯加以南强热带气旋第5号“迪克莱迪”(08U/07S.Dikeledi) - 有记载以来纬度最南的ITC，12日登陆马达加斯加北部，13日登陆莫桑比克 - JTWC:100KT

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 161219
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 39/5/20242025
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION 2025/01/16 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 30.6 S / 46.9 E
(THIRTY    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SIX    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 25 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/6.0/W 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 945 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 280 SW: 205 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 335 SE: 220 SW: 110 NW: 250
48 KT NE: 185 SE: 140 SW: 60 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 120 SE: 95 SW: 35 NW: 75

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/17 00 UTC: 32.9 S / 51.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 45

24H: 2025/01/17 12 UTC: 34.4 S / 57.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 195 SW: 250 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 120 SW: 140 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SW: 55 NW: 55

36H: 2025/01/18 00 UTC: 34.9 S / 64.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 185 SW: 110 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SW: 0 NW: 130

48H: 2025/01/18 12 UTC: 35.1 S / 72.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 100



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.5+ CI=6.0-

DIKELEDI HAS MAINTAINED ITS EYE CONFIGURATION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS,
WITH A 3-HOUR AVERAGE DVORAK OF 5.5+. HOWEVER, VISIBLE AND INFRA-RED
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE EYE IS LESS AND LESS VISIBLE AS WIND
SHEAR INCREASES. DIKELEDI REMAINS AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH
WINDS OF 95KT.

CURRENTLY AT A LATITUDE OF 30.6S, DIKELEDI BECOMES THE MOST SOUTHERLY
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN OUR DATABASE, ECLIPSING ANGREEK'S RECORD
FROM LAST SEASON.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK. THE SYSTEM IS DRIVEN IN THE SHORT
TERM BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND A TROUGH CIRCULATING
FURTHER SOUTH, GENERATING A SOUTHWESTERLY SHIFT. FROM TONIGHT
ONWARDS, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL THICKEN AND DIKELEDI WILL
CIRCULATE ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THIS RIDGE, HEADING DUE EAST. THERE
IS LITTLE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE SHAPE OF THE TRACK, BUT THERE IS
STILL A SLIGHT DISPERSION BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT LEADERS IN TERMS OF
SPEED.  THE RSMC FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE FASTER IFS SCENARIO.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, DIKEDELI UNTIL NOW IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, LOW WIND SHEAR AND HIGH OCEAN
POTENTIAL IS BEGINNING TO SUFFER THE EFFECTS OF SHEAR. IN THE COMING
HOURS, WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE FURTHER, ALLOWING INTRUSIONS OF
DRY AIR AROUND THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM. IN ADDITION, AS IT MOVES OVER
COOLER WATERS, DIKEDELI SHOULD BEGIN TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS FROM TOMORROW, WHILE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN. DIKEDELI
SHOULD REACH THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW STAGE EARLY THIS WEEKEND.


THE SYSTEM NO LONGER POSES A THREAT TO INHABITED LAND.=

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 161929
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 40/5/20242025
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION 2025/01/16 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 31.9 S / 48.8 E
(THIRTY ONE    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 22 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/5.0/W 1.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 968 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 41 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 205 SW: 130 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 130 SW: 75 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 75 SW: 60 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 0 NW: 65

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/17 06 UTC: 34.1 S / 54.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 165 SW: 260 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 95 SW: 130 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 75

24H: 2025/01/17 18 UTC: 35.0 S / 61.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 155 SW: 250 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 0 SW: 130 NW: 155

36H: 2025/01/18 06 UTC: 35.1 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 0 SW: 270 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 150

48H: 2025/01/18 18 UTC: 35.3 S / 75.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 0 SW: 205 NW: 260

60H: 2025/01/19 06 UTC: 35.1 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION


2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0 CI=5.0

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, DIKELEDI HAS ENTERED A PHASE OF RAPID
WEAKENING. THE SYSTEM HAS GRADUALLY LOST ITS EYE PATTERN AND
CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER, DUE TO
INCREASING WEST-NORTHWEST WIND SHEAR. MICROWAVE IMAGES SSMIS F17 AND
F16 AT 1533Z AND 1554Z, FOLLOWED BY GPM-GMI AT 1804Z, REVEAL A CDO
DISPLACED ABOUT 30-40 NM AWAY FROM THE SURFACE CENTER, WHICH IS
PARTIALLY EXPOSED. THE LOW-LEVEL VORTEX IS STILL FAIRLY WELL
CONSOLIDATED, BUT HAS WIDENED COMPARED WITH THURSDAY MORNING.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS IS BASED ON THE MET, RAPIDLY DECREASING
FROM THE SYSTEM'S PEAK INTENSITY ON THURSDAY MORNING 03-06UTC. A SMOS
PASS AT 1415Z MEASURED WINDS OF 65 KT, INDICATING CLEAR WEAKENING OF
THE SYSTEM, BUT THE RELIABILITY OF THIS MEASUREMENT IS UNCERTAIN.
OBJECTIVE CIMSS ESTIMATES VARY BETWEEN 70 AND 85 KT (10MIN WINDS).
THE FINAL INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS THEREFORE ESTIMATED AT 75 KT AT
18UTC, MAKING A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE VARIOUS DATA. IN ADDITION,
THE 12UTC INTENSITY WAS RE-EVALUATED AT 90 KT AFTERHAND.

THE SYSTEM'S MOVEMENT IS DRIVEN BY A NORTH-WESTERLY THEN WESTERLY
FLOW, ALONGSIDE A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH AND A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST THEN NORTH. THERE IS STILL SOME DISPERSION
BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT MODELS IN TERMS OF FORWARD SPEED. THE RSMC
FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE LATEST IFS AND GFS RUNS.

WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM IS UNAVOIDABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, DUE TO
THE EFFECTS OF WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THE
INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR WILL ENHANCE INTRUSIONS OF DRY
MID-TROPOSPHERE AIR OVER THE SYSTEM'S CORE ON FRIDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME, OCEAN HEAT POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO DROP : CURRENTLY OVER SST
NEAR 25C, THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER OCEAN SURFACE TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO AROUND 21-23C ON FRIDAY, THEN 20-21C THIS WEEKEND, WHICH
WILL GREATLY WEAKEN ITS CONVECTION. DIKELEDI SHOULD THEREFORE BECOME
POST-TROPICAL FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS, WHILE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN
THEREAFTER. THE SYSTEM'S REMNANT LOW SHOULD GRADUALLY FILL IN AROUND
SUNDAY AT A LATITUDE CLOSE TO 35S.

THE SYSTEM NO LONGER POSES ANY THREAT TO INHABITED LANDS.=

ygsj24

WTXS31 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 015   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   161800Z --- NEAR 31.8S 48.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 31.8S 48.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z --- 33.8S 54.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 27 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z --- 34.6S 61.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 32.3S 50.3E.
16JAN25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
740 NM SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 161800Z IS 979 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
170900Z.
//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 162100
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING
   
4. NR 015//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 31.8S 48.9E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 75 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 740 NM SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 35 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS WARMING
    
18. CLOUD TOPS AS DEEP CONVECTION COLLAPSES AND IS DRAWN POLEWARD AND
    
19. EASTWARD OF THE OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). WATER
    
20. VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS THE CIRCULATION
    
21. BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES ALOFT. THE INITIAL
    
22. POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 161803Z GPM GMI
    
23. 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALING A DISTINCT EYE FEATURE ON THE
    
24. LOW-LEVELS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
    
25. CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE RAPIDLY DEGRADING STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM
    
26. COUPLED WITH THE AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE FIXES LISTED BELOW.
    
27. 
    
28. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
    
29. 
    
30. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH
    
31. 
    
32. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
33.    PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS
    
34.    KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS
    
35.    DEMS: T5.5 - 102 KTS
    
36.    FMEE: T5.0 - 90 KTS
    
37.    CIMSS ADT: 94 KTS AT 161800Z
    
38.    CIMSS AIDT: 92 KTS AT 161800Z
    
39.    CIMSS D-MINT: 75 KTS AT 161830Z
    
40. 
    
41. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE
    
42.    VWS: 20-25 KTS
    
43.    SST: 23-24 CELSIUS
    
44.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
    
45. 
    
46. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
47.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
48.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
49.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
50. 
    
51. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
52. 
    
53. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THE FORECAST TIMELINE HAS BEEN
    
54. SHORTENED DUE TO THE QUICKLY DEGRADING NATURE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
    
55. (TC) 07S AS THE SYSTEM PASSES OVER COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
    
56. AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES.
    
57. 
    
58. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 07S WILL CURVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ON THE
    
59. SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
    
60. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE, FORCING
    
61. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. TC 07S WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE
    
62. STRUCTURE OF THE CIRCULATION DEGRADES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
    
63. FORECAST, DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY BAROCLINIC FORCING AND COOL SEA
    
64. SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE OUTFLOW ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN
    
65. UNFAVORABLE WITH MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. VERTICAL WIND
    
66. SHEAR WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO 35-40KTS.
    
67. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE WITHIN 24 HOURS
    
68. WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL BE FULLY FRONTAL, BAROCLINIC, AND EMBEDDED
    
69. WITHIN THE JET.
    
70. 
    
71. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG
    
72. AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CURVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE
    
73. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
    
74. THE STR TO THE NORTH. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT
    
75. THAT THE INTENSITY WILL DEGRADE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
    
76. AS THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
    
77. 
    
78. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
79.    TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
    
80.    INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
    
81. NNNN

复制代码

pocketbox

WTIO30 FMEE 170029
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 41/5/20242025
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION 2025/01/17 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 33.2 S / 51.7 E
(THIRTY THREE    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 28 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 979 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 59 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 75 SW: 0 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/17 12 UTC: 34.6 S / 58.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 155 SW: 205 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 85 SW: 130 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 0 SW: 75 NW: 85

24H: 2025/01/18 00 UTC: 35.0 S / 64.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 150 SW: 220 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 0 SW: 130 NW: 155

36H: 2025/01/18 12 UTC: 35.0 S / 71.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 0 SW: 205 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 165

48H: 2025/01/19 00 UTC: 34.7 S / 77.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5 CI=4.5

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, DIKELEDI HAS KEPT A SHEARED PATTERN, WITH
RELATIVELY INTENSE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED ABOUT 30 NM EAST OF THE
SURFACE CENTER. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS IS ESTIMATED AT 3.5. AMONG
THE RECENT OBJECTIVE INTENSITY DATA AVAILABLE, A SMAP PASS AT 1507Z
MEASURED WINDS OF 70 KT, WHILE A SAR RCM2 PASS AT 1517Z GAVE WINDS
NEAR 80-85 KT (EQUIVALENT IN 10-MIN WINDS). THE ESTIMATED INTENSITY
AT 18UTC AT 75 KT THEREFORE SEEMS TO BE A GOOD COMPROMISE. A PARTIAL
ASCAT-C PASS AT 1818Z SHOWED THAT THERE ARE NO LONGER HURRICANE-FORCE
WINDS IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, BUT STILL STORM-FORCE WINDS. IT
ALSO SHOWED A BROADENING OF THE WIND STRUCTURE. AT 00UTC, OBJECTIVE
CIMSS ESTIMATES VARY BETWEEN 55 AND 75 KT (10-MIN WINDS). THE FINAL
INTENSITY ESTIMATE FOR THE SYSTEM IS RELATIVELY UNCERTAIN AND IS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE DIFFERENT DATA, WITH MAXIMUM WINDS ESTIMATED
AT 65 KT AT 00UTC. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS NOW APPEAR TO BE LIMITED TO
THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

THE SYSTEM'S MOVEMENT IS DRIVEN BY A RAPID WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY THEN
WESTERLY FLOW, ALONGSIDE A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH AND A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST THEN NORTH. THE RSMC FORECAST IS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE LATEST IFS AND GFS RUNS.

WEAKENING AND DESTRUCTURING OF THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS, DUE TO WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AT A
LATITUDE CLOSE TO 35S. THE INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR WILL ENHANCE
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSIONS OVER THE SYSTEM'S CORE THIS FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE, OCEAN HEAT POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO DROP : CURRENTLY
OVER SST NEAR 24C, THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER OCEAN SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND 21-23C THIS FRIDAY, THEN 20-21C THIS
WEEKEND, WHICH WILL GREATLY WEAKEN ITS CONVECTION. DIKELEDI SHOULD
THEREFORE SOON BECOME POST-TROPICAL TODAY AND WILL KEEP WEAKENING
THEREAFTER. THE SYSTEM'S REMNANT LOW SHOULD GRADUALLY FILL IN AROUND
SUNDAY OR MONDAY, EMBEDDED IN A WEAK LOW-LEVEL TROUGH.

THE SYSTEM NO LONGER POSES ANY THREAT TO INHABITED LANDS.=

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：刘 达  签发：钱奇峰  2025 年 01 月 17 日 10 时
“迪克莱迪”强度继续减弱

时       间：17日08时（北京时，下同）

海       域：南印度洋

命       名：“迪克莱迪”，DIKELEDI

中心位置：南纬33.2度、东经51.7度

强度等级：热带气旋

最大风力：12级（33米/秒，相当于我国的台风级）

中心气压：979百帕

参考位置：法属留尼旺南偏西方向约1410公里的洋面上

变化过程：过去24小时，“迪克莱迪”由14级减弱到12级

预报结论：“迪克莱迪”将以每小时50公里左右的速度向偏东方向快速移动，强度将继续减弱。由于“迪克莱迪”继续向偏东方向移动，其对马达加斯加的影响趋于结束，但17日白天，马达加斯加南部仍将有小到中雨。


图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年01月17日08时00分）

一只布拉万

理可的呆萌呆毛 发表于 2025-1-16 15:15
沒想到Anggrek這個耐凍王的最南ITC紀錄一年就破了。。。

我觉得Anggrek已经转温了

一只布拉万

一只布拉万 发表于 2025-1-17 09:09
我觉得Anggrek已经转温了

有图有真相

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WTIO30 FMEE 170637
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 42/5/20242025
1.A POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION 2025/01/17 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 33.8 S / 54.6 E
(THIRTY THREE    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FOUR    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 27 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 74 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 120

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/17 18 UTC: 34.7 S / 61.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 165 SW: 205 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 75

24H: 2025/01/18 06 UTC: 34.6 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 0 SW: 205 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 0 SW: 85 NW: 120

36H: 2025/01/18 18 UTC: 34.1 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 0 SW: 150 NW: 165

48H: 2025/01/19 06 UTC: 34.1 S / 78.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 150 NW: 0

60H: 2025/01/19 18 UTC: 34.1 S / 80.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

72H: 2025/01/20 06 UTC: 34.1 S / 82.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO DRIFT
AWAY FROM THE CENTER, WITH WESTERLY SHEAR EXCEEDING 30KT ACCORDING TO
CIMSS. THE CENTER IS PARTIALLY VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGES. CLOUD
TOPS CONTINUED TO WARM AS SST DROPPED BELOW 23C. 0229Z SMOS DATA AND
0442Z CALIBRATED ASCAT DATA GAVE 65KT AND 60KT RESPECTIVELY. IN LINE
WITH THESE ASSESSMENTS, DIKELEDI IS ANALYZED AS A POST-TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 60KT AT 6Z.

THE SYSTEM'S MOVEMENT IS DRIVEN BY A RAPID WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY THEN
WESTERLY FLOW, ALONGSIDE A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH AND A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST THEN NORTH. THE RSMC FORECAST IS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE LATEST IFS AND GFS RUNS.

THE WEAKENING AND COLLAPSE OF THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS UNDER THE EFFECT OF SHEAR AND THE DROP IN OCEANIC POTENTIAL
AT A LATITUDE CLOSE TO 35S. THE INCREASE IN WESTERLY SHEAR WILL
ACCENTUATE MID-TROPOSPHERIC DRY AIR INTRUSIONS INTO THE INNER CORE
THIS FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE, WITH SSTS BELOW 23C, WHICH WILL STRONGLY DAMPEN CONVECTION.
DIKELEDI SHOULD THEREFORE BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM TOMORROW
SATURDAY, AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THEREAFTER. THE SYSTEM SHOULD FILL
BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY WITHIN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH.

THE SYSTEM NO LONGER POSES ANY THREAT TO INHABITED LAND=

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全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：刘 达  签发：钱奇峰  2025 年 01 月 17 日 18 时
“迪克莱迪”逐渐变性为温带气旋

时       间：17日14时（北京时）

海       域：南印度洋

命       名：“迪克莱迪”，DIKELEDI

中心位置：南纬33.8度、东经54.6度

强度等级：热带气旋

最大风力：12级（33米/秒，相当于我国的台风级）

中心气压：983百帕

参考位置：毛里求斯路易港南偏西方向约1550公里的洋面上

变化过程：过去24小时，“迪克莱迪”由15级减弱到12级

预报结论：“迪克莱迪” 将以每小时50公里左右的速度向偏东方向快速移动，强度将继续减弱并逐渐变性为温带气旋。


图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年01月17日14时00分）

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WTXS31 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 016   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   170600Z --- NEAR 33.7S 54.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 28 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 33.7S 54.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z --- 34.5S 61.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 27 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z --- 34.3S 67.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 33.9S 56.4E.
17JAN25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
792 NM SOUTH OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 28
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 170600Z IS 989 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
172100Z.//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 170900
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING
   
4. NR 016//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 33.7S 54.8E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 792 NM SOUTH OF ST DENIS
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 28 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
18. CYCLONE (TC) 07S (DIKELEDI) AS A WEAKENING CYCLONE THROUGH
    
19. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WHILE CONVECTION HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY
    
20. SHEARED EASTWARD AND POLEWARD OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
    
21. (LLCC). THE LLCC HAS BECOME FULLY-EXPOSED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS
    
22. AS CONVECTION REMAINS RESTRICTED TO THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
    
23. SYSTEMS CIRCULATION, INDICATING AN INCREASING EASTWARD VERTICAL
    
24. TILT. ALOFT, MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW HAS CONTINUED WITH SUPPORT
    
25. FROM THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES DIRECTLY TO THE SOUTH OF TC 07S.
    
26. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
    
27. EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 170443Z ASCAT-B PASS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
    
28. FULLY-EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
    
29. CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE RAPIDLY DEGRADING NATURE OF TC 07S THROUGH
    
30. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 45 KTS.
    
31. 
    
32. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA
    
33. 
    
34. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
    
35. EAST-NORTHEAST.
    
36. 
    
37. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
38.    PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
    
39.    CIMSS ADT: 72 KTS AT 170430Z
    
40.    CIMSS AIDT: 63 KTS AT 170430Z
    
41.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 41 KTS AT 0430Z
    
42. 
    
43. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE
    
44.    VWS: 20-30 KTS
    
45.    SST: 21-22 CELSIUS
    
46.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
    
47. 
    
48. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
49.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
50.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
51.    INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
    
52. 
    
53. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
54. 
    
55. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
56. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
57. 
    
58. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 07S IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE
    
59. EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR LOCATED
    
60. DIRECTLY TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH DISSIPATION BY TAU 24 AS THE
    
61. SYSTEM BECOMES COMPLETELY EMBEDDED WITHIN HE MIDLATITUDE
    
62. BAROCLINIC ZONE. THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE CYCLONE IS
    
63. EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, REACHING COMPLETION
    
64. BETWEEN TAU 18 AND TAU 24 BECAUSE OF THE HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE
    
65. ENVIRONMENT, WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 24 C AND VERTICAL
    
66. WIND SHEAR (VWS) INCREASING ABOVE 30 KTS. WITH REGARD TO INTENSITY,
    
67. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING TO 35 KTS UNTIL
    
68. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS COMPLETE WHILE TC 07S BECOMES HIGHLY
    
69. ASYMMETRIC, TILTED, AND VOID OF SUPPORTIVE CONVECTION.
    
70. 
    
71. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY STRONG
    
72. AGREEMENT THAT TC 07S WILL CONTINUE GENERALLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE
    
73. FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE
    
74. NORTH, WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF JUST 96 NM BY TAU 24, LENDING
    
75. HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THE JTWC INTENSITY
    
76. FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL INTENSITY CONSENSUS
    
77. THROUGHOUT EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION INTO TAU 24, WITH EXPECTED
    
78. DECAY UNTIL THE COMPLETION OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE ONLY
    
79. OUTLIER IS THE DETERMINISTIC GFS SOLUTION, INDICATING A POTENTIAL
    
80. INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITH BAROCLINIC
    
81. SUPPORT DUE TO UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY
    
82. JET. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE DUE
    
83. THE ONGOING EXTRATROPICAL PHASE INTO COMPLETION BY TAU 24.
    
84. 
    
85. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
86.    TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
    
87.    INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
    
88. NNNN

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