中东太／北大各类图像自动更新暨非扰动云团专帖（2024年）

红豆棒冰冰

ECMWF 00Z决定报及系集继续对墨西哥附近的热带系统有所反应

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 141137
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Jun 14 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles southwest
of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing limited shower and thunderstorm
activity. Further development of this system is becoming unlikely,
as the system interacts with a broader circulation that is forecast
to develop offshore of southern Mexico and Central America early
next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 141138
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Offshore of the Southeastern U.S. (AL90):
Satellite data and surface observations indicate that the low
pressure area offshore of the southeastern U.S. coast has become a
little better organized since yesterday.  However, upper-level
winds remain strong, and the system is forecast to merge with a
front over the western Atlantic Saturday or Sunday. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall is forecast to continue across portions
of the Florida peninsula through Saturday. For more information,
see products issued by the Weather Prediction Center and local
National Weather Service Forecast Offices.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico late this weekend or early next week.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression could form during the early
or middle part of next week while it moves slowly westward or
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

&&

Weather Prediction Center products can be found at
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov and National Weather Service forecast
information can be found at www.weather.gov

$$
Forecaster Beven

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 141734
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Jun 14 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles
southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing limited shower and
thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are forecast to
remain unfavorable, and development of this system is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

红豆棒冰冰

ygsj24 发表于 2024-6-15 04:10
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 141734
TWOEP

NHC最新Tropical Weather Outlook不再提及此系统

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Jun 14 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
NNNN

红豆棒冰冰

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Western Atlantic (AL90):
An area of low pressure offshore of the southeastern U.S. coast is
producing some disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. The
system is unlikely to acquire tropical characteristics due to strong
upper-level winds while it moves northeastward over the western
Atlantic and merges with a front on Saturday. For more information
on this system, including Gale Warnings, see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

2. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico late this weekend or early next week.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression could form during the early
or middle part of next week while it moves slowly westward or
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.


High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Reinhart

红豆棒冰冰

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Western Atlantic (AL90):
Satellite data indicate an elongated area of low pressure located
well offshore of the southeastern U.S. has merged with a nearby
frontal system over the western Atlantic. The system is forecast to
move east-northeastward to northeastward through the weekend, and
tropical cyclone formation is not expected. For more information on
this system, including Gale Warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued
by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

2. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico early next week. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression could form by the middle part of next week
while the system moves slowly westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.


High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Reinhart

红豆棒冰冰

ECMWF 00Z系集继续对墨西哥附近的热带系统有明显反应

红豆棒冰冰

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico early next week. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression could form by the middle part of next week
while the system moves slowly westward or west-northwestward.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains area likely to
occur over portions of southeastern Mexico and Central America
during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.


Forecaster Beven

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 151734
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Jun 15 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore Central America:
Latest satellite imagery and surface observations depict that a
trough of low pressure has developed offshore the southern coast of
Guatemala. Environmental conditions are favorable for slow
development of this system, and a tropical depression could develop
early next week while the system meanders near the coast. Regardless
of development, several days of heavy rainfall are expected across
portions of southern Mexico and Central America.  These rains are
likely to cause life-threatening flooding and flash flooding.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly