马达加斯加以南强热带气旋第5号“迪克莱迪”(08U/07S.Dikeledi) - 有记载以来纬度最南的ITC，12日登陆马达加斯加北部，13日登陆莫桑比克 - JTWC:100KT

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 171216
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 43/5/20242025
1.A POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION 2025/01/17 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 34.6 S / 58.5 E
(THIRTY FOUR    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 31 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 0 SW: 80 NW: 130

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/18 00 UTC: 34.9 S / 64.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 0 SW: 195 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 0 SW: 85 NW: 155

24H: 2025/01/18 12 UTC: 34.4 S / 71.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 0 SW: 220 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 0 SW: 85 NW: 110

36H: 2025/01/19 00 UTC: 34.1 S / 76.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 195

48H: 2025/01/19 12 UTC: 34.2 S / 80.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SW: 130 NW: 140



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO
DETERIORATE. THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED UP WITH THE LOWER OCEANIC
POTENTIAL, AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS AT SOME DISTANCE FROM THE
CENTER, DUE TO THE WESTERLY SHEAR. IN LINE WITH THE LATEST ANALYSES
AND THE WEAKENING TREND, THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 55KT.

THE SYSTEM'S MOVEMENT IS DRIVEN BY A RAPID WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY THEN
WESTERLY FLOW, ALONGSIDE A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH AND A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST THEN NORTH. THE RSMC FORECAST IS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE LATEST IFS AND GFS RUNS.

THE WEAKENING AND COLLAPSE OF THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS UNDER THE EFFECT OF SHEAR AND THE DROP IN OCEANIC POTENTIAL
AT A LATITUDE CLOSE TO 35S. INCREASED WESTERLY SHEAR AND SSTS BELOW
23C WILL SEVERELY LIMIT CONVECTION AND LEAD TO THE SYSTEM'S
EXTRATROPICALIZATION BY TOMORROW, SATURDAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN THEREAFTER. THE SYSTEM SHOULD FILL ON SUNDAY OR MONDAY WITHIN
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH.

THE SYSTEM NO LONGER POSES ANY THREAT TO INHABITED LAND.

LAST BULLETIN UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION ISSUED BY RSMC LA REUNION
REGARDS THIS SYSTEM. FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
AVAILABLE IN THE DAILY BULLETIN ON TROPICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN ISSUED AT 12Z (AWIO20 FMEE).=

Leonardo

TPXS12 PGTW 171503

A. EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI)

B. 17/1430Z

C. 34.55S

D. 59.45E

E. THREE/MET9

F. XT3.0/3.0/W1.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. POORLY ORGANIZED LLCC WITH
CONVECTION AND FORWARD SPEED OF 28 KTS WRAPS 0.10 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING X T3.0.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   TIMMERMAN

Leonardo

TXXS26 KNES 170602
TCSSIO

A.  07S (DIKELEDI)

B.  17/0530Z

C.  33.6S

D.  54.6E

E.  THREE/MET-9

F.  EXTRATROPICAL

G.  IR/EIR/VIS

H.  REMARKS...THIS WILL BE THE FINAL BULLETIN.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    NIL


...LEE

=

Leonardo

目前刚刚转温，云系破碎

ygsj24

WTXS31 PGTW 172100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 017   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   171800Z --- NEAR 35.0S 61.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 33 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 35.0S 61.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z --- 35.1S 68.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 35.0S 63.6E.
17JAN25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
927 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 33 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM TRANSITIONING INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE, AS INDICATED BY HEAVILY SHEARED CONVECTION
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) BECOMING STRETCHED AND ELONGATED. ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM ENTERING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE, WITH SST AT 24 CELSIUS OR
LOWER, IN ADDITION TO 30+ KTS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 07S IS
EXPECTED TO COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 171800Z IS
994 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 18 FEET.//
NNNN

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：王慧  签发：钱奇峰  2025 年 01 月 18 日 10 时
“迪克莱迪”变性为温带气旋

时        间：18日08时（北京时）

海        域：南印度洋

命        名：“迪克莱迪”，DIKELEDI

变化过程：“迪克莱迪”已于昨日变性为温带气旋。

（这是关于“迪克莱迪”的最后一期监测公报）