中东太／北大各类图像自动更新暨非扰动云团专帖（2024年）

红豆棒冰冰

ECMWF 12Z系集继续对墨西哥附近的热带系统有明显反应

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 152305
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico in a day or two. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression could form by the middle part of next week
while the system moves slowly westward or west-northwestward.
Regardless of development, several days of heavy rainfall are
expected across portions of southern Mexico and Central America.  
These rains are likely to cause life-threatening flooding and flash
flooding.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Southwestern Atlantic Ocean:
An area of low pressure could form by the middle part of next week
a few hundred miles northeast of the central Bahamas.  Some slow
development of this system is possible thereafter while the system
moves westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 160502
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico in a day or two. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression could form by midweek while it moves
slowly westward or west-northwestward.  Regardless of development,
several days of heavy rainfall are expected across portions of
southern Mexico and Central America.  These rains are likely to
cause life-threatening flooding and flash flooding.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Southwestern Atlantic Ocean:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form by midweek a few
hundred miles northeast of the central Bahamas.  Environmental
conditions could be conducive for some development of this system
thereafter while it moves westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Kirogi

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Jun 15 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Offshore Central America:
A trough of low pressure centered just offshore of the southern
coast of Guatemala continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions are conducive for some
development of this system, and a short-lived tropical depression
could form early next week if the system stays offshore.  
Regardless of development, several days of heavy rainfall are
expected across portions of southern Mexico and Central America.  
These rains are likely to cause life-threatening flooding and flash
flooding.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


Forecaster Blake

红豆棒冰冰

ECMWF 00Z系集继续对墨西哥附近的热带系统有明显反应

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 161129
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A large area of disturbed weather has formed over Central
America, the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and the adjacent waters
of the northwestern Caribbean Sea. A broad area of low pressure is
forecast to form from this system over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico in a day or two. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression
could form by midweek while it moves slowly westward or
west-northwestward.  Regardless of development, several days of
heavy rainfall are expected across portions of southern Mexico and
Central America.  These rains are likely to cause life-threatening
flooding and flash flooding.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Southwestern Atlantic Ocean:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form by midweek a few
hundred miles northeast of the central Bahamas.  Environmental
conditions could be conducive for some development of this system
thereafter while it moves westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

红豆棒冰冰

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Jun 16 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Offshore Central America:
A trough of low pressure centered just offshore of the southern
coast of Guatemala continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions are conducive for some
development of this system, and a short-lived tropical depression
could form early next week if the system stays offshore.  
Regardless of development, several days of heavy rainfall are
expected across portions of southern Mexico and Central America.  
These rains are likely to cause life-threatening flooding and flash
flooding.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


Forecaster Pasch

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 161736
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A large area of disturbed weather is located over Central America,
the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and the adjacent waters of the
northwestern Caribbean Sea. A broad area of low pressure is
forecast to form from this system over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico on Monday or Tuesday.  Environmental conditions appear
conducive for subsequent gradual development of the low, and a
tropical depression or tropical storm could form by midweek while
it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward.

Regardless of development, several days of heavy rainfall are
expected across portions of southern Mexico and Central America, and
these rains are likely to cause life-threatening flooding and flash
flooding.  Locally heavy rainfall is also expected to spread over
portions of the northwestern coast of the Gulf of Mexico by the
middle of the week.  In addition, gale warnings have been issued
for portions of the Gulf of Mexico, and more information on these
is available in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Southwestern Atlantic Ocean:
A trough or an area of low pressure is forecast to form by midweek
a few hundred miles northeast of the central Bahamas. Environmental
conditions could be conducive for some development of this system
thereafter while it moves westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Beven

红豆棒冰冰

红豆棒冰冰 发表于 2024-6-16 20:50
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

已编90E

红豆棒冰冰

ECMWF 12Z决定报及系集均对墨西哥湾的系统有明显反应