中东太／北大各类图像自动更新暨非扰动云团专帖（2024年）

红豆棒冰冰

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:


1. A large area of disturbed weather is located over Central America,
the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and the adjacent waters of the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and southern Gulf of Mexico.  A broad
area of low pressure is forecast to form from this system over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico within the next day or so.  
Environmental conditions appear conducive for subsequent gradual
development of the low, and a tropical depression or tropical storm
is likely to form by midweek while it moves slowly westward or
west-northwestward toward the western Gulf coast.

Regardless of development, several days of heavy rainfall are
expected across portions of southern Mexico and Central America, and
these rains are likely to cause life-threatening flooding and flash
flooding.  Locally heavy rainfall is also expected to spread over
portions of the northwestern coast of the Gulf of Mexico by the
middle of the week.  In addition, gale warnings have been issued
for portions of the Gulf of Mexico, and more information on
those warnings is available in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

2. Southwestern Atlantic Ocean:
A trough or an area of low pressure is forecast to form a few
hundred miles northeast of the central Bahamas in a couple of days.
Environmental conditions could be conducive for some development of
this system thereafter while it moves westward or west-
northwestward.  The system is forecast to approach the coast of the
southeast United States on Thursday or Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.


High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Brown

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 170501
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A large area of disturbed weather is located over Central America,
the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and the adjacent waters of the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and southern Gulf of Mexico.  A broad
area of low pressure is forecast to form from this system over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico later today or tonight.  Environmental
conditions appear conducive for subsequent gradual development of
the low, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to
form by midweek while it moves slowly westward or west-
northwestward toward the western Gulf coast.

Regardless of development, several days of heavy rainfall are
expected across portions of southern Mexico and Central America, and
these rains are likely to cause life-threatening flooding and flash
flooding.  Locally heavy rainfall is also expected to spread over
portions of the northwestern coast of the Gulf of Mexico by the
middle of the week.  In addition, gale warnings have been issued
for portions of the Gulf of Mexico, and more information on
those warnings is available in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.  Interests along the western and
northwestern Gulf coasts should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Southwestern Atlantic Ocean:
A trough or an area of low pressure is forecast to form a few
hundred miles northeast of the central Bahamas in a day or two.
Environmental conditions could be conducive for some development of
this system thereafter while it moves westward or west-
northwestward.  The system is forecast to approach the coast of the
southeast United States on Thursday or Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Brown

红豆棒冰冰

ECMWF 00Z系集继续对墨西哥湾系统有明显反应

pocketbox

1. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that a broad
area of low pressure is forming over the Bay of Campeche.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional gradual
development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely
to form by midweek while it moves slowly westward or
west-northwestward toward the western Gulf coast.

Regardless of development, several days of heavy rainfall are
expected across portions of southern Mexico and Central America, and
these rains are likely to cause life-threatening flooding and flash
flooding.  Locally heavy rainfall is also expected to spread over
portions of the northwestern coast of the Gulf of Mexico by the
middle of the week.  In addition, gale warnings have been issued for
portions of the Gulf of Mexico, and more information on those
warnings is available in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.  Interests along the western and northwestern Gulf
coasts should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
system later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

pocketbox

2. Southwestern Atlantic Ocean:
An area of cloudiness and thunderstorms located several hundred
miles east of the Bahamas is associated with a surface trough and
an upper-level area of low pressure.  Environmental conditions
could be conducive for some development of this system during the
next few days while it moves westward or west-northwestward.  The
system is forecast to approach the coast of the southeast United
States on Thursday or Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

红豆棒冰冰

pocketbox 发表于 2024-6-17 20:04
1. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that a broad
ar ...

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红豆棒冰冰

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone One, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

1. Southwestern Atlantic Ocean:
An area of cloudiness and thunderstorms located several hundred
miles east of the Bahamas is associated with a surface trough and
an upper-level area of low pressure.  Environmental conditions
could be conducive for some gradual development of this system
during the next few days while it moves westward or west-
northwestward.  The system is forecast to approach the coast of
the southeastern United States on Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

2. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
Another broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system
early next week while it moves slowly northward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone One are issued
under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone One are issued
under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

Forecaster Brown

红豆棒冰冰

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone One, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

1. Southwestern Atlantic Ocean:
An area of cloudiness and showers located several hundred miles east
of the Bahamas is associated with a surface trough and an
upper-level area of low pressure.  Environmental conditions could be
conducive for some gradual development of this system during the
next few days while it moves westward or west-northwestward.  The
system is forecast to approach the coast of the southeastern United
States on Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

2. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
Another broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system
early next week while it moves slowly northward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone One are issued
under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone One are issued
under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

Forecaster Kelly

红豆棒冰冰

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone One, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

1. Southwestern Atlantic Ocean:
An area of showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles
east of the Bahamas is associated with a surface trough and an
upper-level area of low pressure. Environmental conditions are
marginally conducive for some gradual development of this system
during the next few days while it moves westward or
west-northwestward. The system is forecast to approach the coast of
the southeastern United States on Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

2. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
Another broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system
early next week while it moves slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.


Forecaster Bucci

红豆棒冰冰

GFS最新预报显示未来10天内东太仍然没有TC活跃的迹象，东太很可能出现整个上半年都没有任何TC活跃的罕见情况