空间天气实况贴

Лотон

X4.5 来自东半球的3825
aia304这个波段上能看出等离子体团物质被抛射出，这些物质在活动区上空维持着磁压热压的平衡，可能是受其他活动区的爆发引起的扰动从而导致的爆发（日冕大尺度扰动，莫尔顿波，又叫EUV波，EIT波，极紫外波等），伴随很大很明显的CME
≥10MeV质子通量有上升趋势，除500MeV的能量段的均有上升趋势（只要500的不上升，就没啥大问题），ICME驱动的激波加速过来的

闽海星尘

AR 3825  X4.54  有CME



耀斑爆发时刻



观测到有日冕物质被抛射


X射线通量曲线



LASCO视场内观测到的CME抛射


模型预测CME


NOAA预测Kp指数

Major Solar Flare and CME
September 14, 2024 @ 19:05 UTC (UPDATED)
A major X4.5 solar flare was produced by AR 3825 on September 14th, 2024 @ 15:29 UTC. The event was associated with a fast moving halo coronal mass ejection (CME). Although the eruption is directed mostly to the east, the western flank of the plasma cloud does appear Earth directed. A passage past Earth will be possible within 48 hours. I would expect a geomagnetic storm watch to be added later today for September 16th. Stay tuned for the latest updates.
Storm Watch Added: A strong (G3) geomagnetic storm watch was added for September 16th and into the 17th when the X4.5/CME is predicted to reach our planet. Aurora sky watchers at middle to high latitudes should be alert beginning Monday.

闽海星尘

预测将有G3级大地磁暴

Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2024 Sep 15 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 15-Sep 17 2024 is 7.00 (NOAA Scale
G3).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 15-Sep 17 2024

             Sep 15       Sep 16       Sep 17
00-03UT       3.33         3.33         5.67 (G2)
03-06UT       3.67         3.33         5.00 (G1)
06-09UT       3.33         5.33 (G1)    4.67 (G1)
09-12UT       3.33         7.00 (G3)    4.00     
12-15UT       3.33         6.67 (G3)    2.67     
15-18UT       3.00         6.00 (G2)    2.33     
18-21UT       3.00         6.00 (G2)    2.33     
21-00UT       3.33         5.67 (G2)    3.00     

Rationale: G1-G3 (Minor-Strong) geomagnetic storming is likely on 16 Sep
and G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms is likely on 17 Sep due to
potential combined CH HSS and CME influences from separate events.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 15-Sep 17 2024

              Sep 15  Sep 16  Sep 17
S1 or greater   10%     10%     10%

Rationale: A slight chance for an S1 (Minor) solar radiation event will
persist through 17 Sep as multiple active regions exist on the disk.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Sep 14 2024 1529 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 15-Sep 17 2024

              Sep 15        Sep 16        Sep 17
R1-R2           60%           60%           60%
R3 or greater   15%           15%           15%

Rationale: R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely on 15-17
Sep. R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts event probabilities remain
likely through the period as multiple regions exist on the disk.

Лотон

Лотон 发表于 2024-9-15 09:08
X4.5 来自东半球的3825
能看出等离子体团物质被抛射出，这些物质在活动区上空维持着磁压热压的平衡，可能是 ...

Лотон

G4 地磁暴 Kp 8-
ICME激波比预计到达时间要晚
23Z左右太阳风参数猛烈变化，标志着ICME驱动的激波到达L1点


选取子午工程链位于低纬地区的三亚地磁台来对比，地面磁场扰动明显，低纬的主要体现在水平分量的变化，环电流产生的磁场是南北向的对应削弱地面北分量


目前磁暴正在进行中，相关数据和等恢复相再发