中东太／北大各类图像自动更新暨非扰动云团专帖（2024年）

红豆棒冰冰

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone One, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

1. Southwestern Atlantic Ocean:
An area of showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles
east of the Bahamas is associated with a surface trough of low
pressure interacting with an upper-level trough. Environmental
conditions are marginally conducive for some gradual development of
this system during the next few days while it moves westward or
west-northwestward. The system is forecast to approach the coast of
the southeastern United States by the latter part of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

2. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
Another broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system
through early next week while it moves slowly west-northwestward or
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.


Forecaster Papin

红豆棒冰冰

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone One, located over the western Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

1. Southwestern Atlantic Ocean:
An area of showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles
east of the Bahamas is associated with a surface trough of low
pressure. Environmental conditions are marginally conducive for some
gradual development of this system during the next few days while it
moves westward or west-northwestward. The system is forecast to
approach the coast of the southeastern United States by the latter
part of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

2. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
Another broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system
through early next week while it moves slowly west-northwestward or
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.


Forecaster Kelly

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 191747
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Storm Alberto, located over the western Gulf of Mexico.

Southwestern Atlantic Ocean:
An area of showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles
east of the Bahamas is associated with a surface trough of low
pressure. Environmental conditions are marginally conducive for some
gradual development of this system during the next few days while it
moves westward or west-northwestward. The system is forecast to
approach the coast of the southeastern United States by Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
Another broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system
through early next week while it moves slowly west-northwestward or
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

红豆棒冰冰

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Alberto, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

1. Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL92):
A small area of low pressure has formed about 300 miles east of
the northwestern Bahamas this evening with disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity.  While environmental conditions are only
marginally conducive due to nearby dry air, further development of
this system is possible while the low moves west-northwestward and
approaches the northeastern coast of Florida or Georgia early on
Friday.  
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

2. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form near the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico on Friday.  Environmental conditions appear to
be conducive for gradual development thereafter, and this system
could become a tropical depression over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico this weekend while it moves slowly west-northwestward or
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.


Forecaster Blake

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 200546
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Alberto, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL92):
A small area of low pressure located about 250 miles east of the
northernmost Bahamas is producing disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity.  While environmental conditions are only
marginally conducive due to nearby dry air, further development of
this system is possible while the low moves west-northwestward and
approaches the northeastern coast of Florida or the Georgia coast
early on Friday.  
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form near the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico on Friday.  Environmental conditions appear to
be conducive for gradual development thereafter, and this system
could become a tropical depression over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico this weekend while it moves slowly west-northwestward or
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 201145
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Alberto, located inland over northeastern Mexico.

Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL92):
A small area of low pressure located about 150 miles east of the
northernmost Bahamas continues to produce disorganized shower
and thunderstorm activity.  While environmental conditions are only
marginally conducive due to nearby dry air, further development of
this system could lead to the development of a tropical depression
while the low moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph and
approaches the northeastern coast of Florida or the Georgia coast
early on Friday.  An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over southeastern
Mexico and northern Central America on Friday.  Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development after this
system moves over the Bay of Campeche on Saturday, and a tropical
depression could form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this
weekend while it moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

红豆棒冰冰

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Alberto, located inland over northeastern Mexico.

1. Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL92):
A small area of low pressure located about 150 miles northeast of
the northernmost Bahamas continues to produce disorganized shower
and thunderstorm activity.  While environmental conditions are only
marginally conducive due to nearby dry air, further development of
this system could lead to the development of a tropical depression
while the low moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph and
approaches the northeastern coast of Florida or the Georgia coast
early on Friday.  An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
enroute to investigate this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

2. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over southeastern
Mexico and northern Central America on Friday.  Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development after this
system moves over the Bay of Campeche on Saturday, and a tropical
depression could form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this
weekend while it moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.


Forecaster Berg

红豆棒冰冰

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has written the last advisory on the
remnants of Alberto, which are located inland over northeastern
Mexico.

1. Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL92):
Satellite imagery shows that shower activity associated with the
area of low pressure located about 175 miles north-northeast of the
northern Bahamas has become a little better organized during the
past 24 hours.  However, earlier Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data indicated that the system does not have a well-defined
circulation.  Environmental conditions remain marginally conducive
for additional development and this system could become a tropical
depression while the low moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.  
The system is expected to approach the northeastern coast of Florida
or the Georgia coast early on Friday, and interests there should
monitor the progress of the system.  Another Air Force Reserve
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on Friday morning,
if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

2. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over southeastern
Mexico and northern Central America on Friday.  Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development after this
system moves over the Bay of Campeche on Saturday, and a tropical
depression could form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this
weekend while it moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.


Forecaster Beven

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 210531
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL92):
A small but concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms persists
with an area of low pressure located around 225 miles east of
Jacksonville, Florida. However, it is unclear if the system
possesses a well-defined surface circulation. Environmental
conditions remain marginally conducive for some additional
development, and this system could become a short-lived tropical
depression as the low moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. The
system is expected to approach the northeastern coast of Florida or
the Georgia coast later today, and interests there should monitor
the progress of this system. An Air Force Reserve aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system later this morning, if
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over southeastern
Mexico and northern Central America later today.  Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development after this
system moves over the Bay of Campeche on Saturday, and a tropical
depression could form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this
weekend while it moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 211152
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL92):
A small area of showers and thunderstorms persists with a low
pressure system located around 150 miles east-southeast of
Jacksonville, Florida. An Air Force Reserve aircraft is currently
investigating the system to determine if the low has a well-defined
surface circulation. Environmental conditions remain marginally
conducive for some additional development, and this system could
become a short-lived tropical depression as the low moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. The system is expected to reach
the coast of northeastern Florida or Georgia by tonight, and
interests there should monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over southeastern
Mexico later today.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development after this system moves over the Bay of Campeche
tonight, and a tropical depression could form over the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico this weekend while it moves slowly west-northwestward
or northwestward. Interests along the Gulf coast of Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Berg