空间天气实况贴

Лотон

X2.1&X1.0，AR3842


伴随明亮的CME，实际上直接导致CME的是X2.1后面的LDE（X1.0），间接原因则是X2.1，充当导火索的作用。

顺便一提，C/2023 A3进入LASCO C3视场，如图，恐这次会被CME拍一巴掌（

≥10兆电子伏质子通量有小幅上升，其他能量段的无变化，老样子，CME激波加速过来的

闽海星尘

AR 3848 - X1.84 + Full Halo CME + 质子S3事件


耀斑爆发时刻

SOHO C2视场监测刚喷发不久时的CME

SOHO C3视场监测刚喷发不久时的CME，右侧亮条为紫金山-阿特拉斯彗星

STEREO COR2视场监测刚喷发不久时的CME的画面

SOHO C3视场差分图像监测刚喷发不久时的CME

SOHO C3视场在质子事件发生期间的画面，右侧亮条为紫金山-阿特拉斯彗星

GOES卫星X射线通量变化曲线

GOES卫星质子通量变化曲线

太阳风暴模型预报

太阳风暴模型预报

X1.8 Flare / Earth Directed CME Confirmed
October 9, 2024 @ 02:00 UTC (UPDATED)
  An X1.8 solar flare was observed at 01:55 UTC (Oct 9) and was centered around Earth facing sunspot region 3848. Coronal dimming is clearly evident and a type II radio emission with an estimated velocity of 5176 km/s was recorded. Not sure if that that a typo, but I expect a CME to be produced and will likely be heading our way. More details to follow.
Fast Moving Halo CME Confirmed: The X1.8 event is associated with fast moving, full halo coronal mass ejection (CME) that will almost certainly be directed towards Earth. A passage past our planet will be likely within 48 hours based on the speed in which the ejected material appears to be leaving the Sun. A geomagnetic storm watch for late Thursday and into Friday should be expected. Stay tuned!
Proton Event: A moderate (S2) radiation storm is in progress as particles blasted away from the flare site make their way past our planet.

Лотон

大太阳质子事件，noaa分级S3，与之前不同的是，本次是由上帖的耀斑加速的，接着ICME激波电场进一步加速粒子，表现在通量的脉冲式上升，然后有一段平缓的趋势，之后继续缓慢上升。
大于等于10兆电子伏的质子通量峰值1810pfu，50兆的越过10pfu的阈值，500兆的无明显变化，只要500的不动，对人就没啥大影响（主要在高纬度地区）
目前已是SC25最强的太阳质子事件，超过6月3697导致的那次S3（1030pfu）

质子事件引发的PCA event，被磁场捕获之后沿着磁力线沉降到极区电离层D区，影响高纬度地区的无线电通信。
20兆赫以下的频率基本全部饱和

差分图像上观测到日冕大尺度扰动，就是爆发后会有一个环状前沿向外扩展，伴随日冕暗化，一般来说有莫尔顿波（EUV波）的事件都和CME有关系，这次事件还是比较明显的，比较有代表性，放在这做个例子
这不能发视频，光从图片还是难以看出环状前沿，想看动态的去https://www.sidc.be/solardemon/d ... p;aid=0&graph=1

闽海星尘

Space Weather Message Code: WATA99
Serial Number: 8
Issue Time: 2024 Oct 09 1233 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G4 or Greater Predicted

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Oct 10:  G4 (Severe)   Oct 11:  G4 (Severe)   Oct 12:  G1 (Minor)

闽海星尘

product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2024 Oct 09 1340 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 10-Oct 12 2024 is 8.33 (NOAA Scale
G4).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 10-Oct 12 2024

             Oct 10       Oct 11       Oct 12
00-03UT       1.67         8.33 (G4)    5.33 (G1)
03-06UT       1.33         8.00 (G4)    5.00 (G1)
06-09UT       1.33         7.00 (G3)    4.67 (G1)
09-12UT       1.33         6.67 (G3)    4.33     
12-15UT       5.00 (G1)    6.33 (G2)    4.33     
15-18UT       7.33 (G3)    6.33 (G2)    5.33 (G1)
18-21UT       7.67 (G4)    6.00 (G2)    4.67 (G1)
21-00UT       8.33 (G4)    5.33 (G1)    4.33     

Rationale: G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storm conditions were already
anticipated for 11 Oct due to possible enhancements associated with the
filament eruption from 08 Oct. Analysis of the CME associated with
the X1.8 flare suggests further enhancement 10 Oct into 11 Oct, reaching
G4 (Severe) levels is likely with G5 (Extreme) levels possible.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
above S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 10-Oct 12 2024

              Oct 10  Oct 11  Oct 12
S1 or greater   80%     50%     30%

Rationale: S1-S2 (Minor-Moderate) solar radiation storm levels are
expected to continue through 10 Oct and begin a slow recovery through
the rest of the period.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Oct 09 2024 0156 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 10-Oct 12 2024

              Oct 10        Oct 11        Oct 12
R1-R2           75%           75%           70%
R3 or greater   40%           40%           25%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with
a chance for isolated R3 (Strong or greater) radio blackout events
through 11 Oct.

闽海星尘

AR 3842 - X1.43 + 有CME


耀斑发生时的画面

SOHO C2视场中的CME

SOHO C3视场中的CME

X射线通量变化情况

Another X-Flare / Severe Geomagnetic Storm Watch
October 9, 2024 @ 15:50 UTC
A moderate (S2) to Strong (S3) radiation storm remains in progress following the energetic X-Flare produced by AR 3848.
A severe (G4) geomagnetic storm watch was officially added beginning tomorrow when the fast moving CME associated with the flare event is expected to sweep past Earth. While there are no guarantees, a repeat of the geomagnetic storm and aurora event back in May could be on the horizon.
Oh... and another X-Flare is in progress at 15:47 UTC (Oct 9). More to follow.

闽海星尘

roduct: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Oct 10 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 10-Oct 12 2024 is 8.33 (NOAA Scale
G4).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 10-Oct 12 2024

             Oct 10       Oct 11       Oct 12
00-03UT       1.67         8.33 (G4)    5.33 (G1)
03-06UT       1.33         8.00 (G4)    5.00 (G1)
06-09UT       1.33         7.00 (G3)    4.67 (G1)
09-12UT       1.33         6.67 (G3)    4.33     
12-15UT       5.00 (G1)    6.33 (G2)    4.33     
15-18UT       7.33 (G3)    6.33 (G2)    5.33 (G1)
18-21UT       7.67 (G4)    6.00 (G2)    4.67 (G1)
21-00UT       8.33 (G4)    5.33 (G1)    4.33     

Rationale: G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storm conditions were already
anticipated for 11 Oct due to possible enhancements associated with the
filament eruption from 08 Oct. Analysis of the CME associated with
the X1.8 flare suggests further enhancement 10 Oct into 11 Oct, reaching
G4 (Severe) levels is likely with G5 (Extreme) levels possible.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
above S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 10-Oct 12 2024

              Oct 10  Oct 11  Oct 12
S1 or greater   80%     50%     30%

Rationale: S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storm levels are
expected to continue through 10 Oct and begin a slow recovery through
the rest of the period.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Oct 09 2024 0156 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 10-Oct 12 2024

              Oct 10        Oct 11        Oct 12
R1-R2           75%           75%           70%
R3 or greater   40%           40%           25%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with
a chance for isolated R3 (Strong or greater) radio blackout events
through 12 Oct.

Лотон

G4 地磁暴，由3848 X1.8伴随的全晕CME导致，对地有效性拉满，SC25截至目前的第二强地磁暴
先来看各项地磁活动指数：
Kp8.67，也就是9-，Dst指数最小值-335（老样子，4个地磁台平均，目前我还没看到过少一个台站的），ICME激波冲击磁层的时候，磁层顶C-F电流增加对应增强地面的H分量，因此Dst会呈现出一个小的脉冲式增强，本次事件增强了大约50nT，已经很强了，511那场地磁暴差不多60nT，最后来自磁尾的粒子注入环电流从而增强环电流，降低了C-F电流的信号，H分量随之大幅减弱，清晰的SSC阶段，随后就是磁暴的主相


10.11日Ap 116

半球能量（HP Index）最大350多GW，极光卵在本次磁暴期间向地纬地区大范围扩张

用极光电集流指数反应磁暴伴随的亚暴的强度，东向极光电集流指数1500nT左右，西向极光电集流指数无法分辨出具体值，如图，西向电集流指数和下面的极光电集流指数连在一块了，能反映出极光电集流比较强，因此对应极光的强度必然不会弱，极光从空间物理的角度来说就压根儿不是磁暴直接导致的，是磁暴伴随的亚暴导致的，极光其实就是电流，与大气碰撞之后的结果（场向电流平铺开之后产生的电集流）


磁层顶 弓激波方面
10.10发生GMC event，磁层顶被压缩至5.5Re，小于GEO轨道的6.6Re（SEPC上的经验模式算法得到的结果），GOES上携带的磁强计也检测到了本次穿越事件，Hp可以看作是地面H分量



太阳风参数方面
磁暴期间太阳风速度最高达到了800km/s左右，Bs分量最高46nT（Bz数值上最低-46）
太阳风密度最高22个/cm3左右，懂空间物理的人都知道，密度是会影响重联率的
处于L1点的卫星穿越时观测到清晰的磁云结构，表现在强的，比较稳定的行星际磁场，和平滑的角度（phi），本次事件中磁云内也是较为持久的南分量
对于对地有效性拉满的CME，即正面对着喷的，如果没有另一个快速CME来干扰，一般都能观测到激波-鞘区-磁云三个部分，鞘区的特点就是大幅波动，看着比较乱的，跟随在激波后面的区域。





多地极光大爆发，就北京而言，目前北京昌平，北京怀柔已有人报告拍到了有明显柱状结构的极光
极光电集流和半球能量最强的时候我国刚好白天，北美处于夜晚，本次磁暴后美国，加拿大两国估计人手一张极光了


目前处于磁暴恢复相阶段

Лотон

AR3873 M9.5 X1.8双峰事件，伴随非常明显的CME
2N/X1.8

M9充当导火索，从304上可以明显看到向外抛射出的等离子团物质，后面的LDE，也就是后面紧跟的二次峰值X1.8。在向外传播的过程中，顶部重联促进向外传播，否则由于重力还有磁场的约束尽管你看着像是抛出去实际上还会落回到太阳，底部重联，磁能转化为辐射能和动能，表现在通量的上升，变亮，新形成的磁拱可以说明这点，就是说抛出去的CME在底部重联导致的后面二次峰值X1.8

一般来说，大耀斑会立即增加电离层的电离率，增加TEC还有平均电子密度，就是突然增强的X射线和EUV辐射导致的，相当于在白天光线正常的房间里，打开手电筒或激光笔开关，被手电筒或激光笔突然晃一下眼睛，眼睛会下意识地闭上，把这个"闭眼"比作SID，打开开关比作触发条件，手电筒，激光笔为耀斑，够形象了，也挺糟糕的（）对于6MHz以下的频率信号衰落超过10dB

LASCO C3, STEREO COR2观测到的CME，对地有效性是有的

Лотон

缓变型 中等太阳质子事件（中度辐射风暴）
NOAA分级S2，GEO处 ≥10兆电子伏的质子通量（5min平均值）达到148pfu，超过10pfu阈值，50 100能量段有小幅上升
缓变型质子事件一般和ICME前向激波脱不开关系，是激波电场加速过来的



昨天X1.8的CME，对地有效性IV halo，速度Type O