中东太／北大各类图像自动更新暨非扰动云团专帖（2024年）

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 260501
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Western Caribbean/Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL94):
A tropical wave moving into the central Caribbean Sea is producing
limited shower activity as it moves quickly westward at around 25
mph.  Environmental conditions could become more conducive for some
gradual development late this week over the western Caribbean Sea
or over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave centered a few hundred miles south-southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.  Some slow development of this system is possible
late this week into early next week while it moves generally
westward across the central and western tropical Atlantic at 15 to
20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

红豆棒冰冰

ygsj24 发表于 2024-6-26 13:10
000
ABNT20 KNHC 260501
TWOAT

ECMWF及GFS 00Z系集均对后一个系统有明显反应

红豆棒冰冰

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Western Caribbean/Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL94):
A tropical wave over the central Caribbean Sea is producing
disorganized shower activity while it moves quickly westward at
around 25 mph.  Environmental conditions could become more conducive
for some gradual development in a couple of days over the western
Caribbean Sea or over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located a few hundred miles southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.  Some slow development of this system is possible
during the next several days while it moves generally westward
across the central and western tropical Atlantic at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.


Forecaster Pasch/Roberts

renzhetegong

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
...
2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located a few hundred miles southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.  Some development is possible during the next several
days, and a tropical depression could form over the tropical
Atlantic by the end of the week or this weekend while the system
moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.


Forecaster Pasch/Roberts

renzhetegong

renzhetegong 发表于 2024-6-27 01:58
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

已编95L

雨夜孤灯

AIFS：+360 条带状594

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 280513
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Western Caribbean/Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL94):
A broad area of low pressure over the western Caribbean Sea is
producing widespread but disorganized shower and thunderstorm
activity while it moves west-northwestward at around 15 mph.  Some
development of this system is possible over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea or over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the
next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
association with a tropical wave located several hundred miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for additional development, and a tropical
depression or tropical storm is likely to form over the next day or
two. This system is expected to move westward at 15 to 20 mph
towards the Windward Islands.  Interests in the Lesser Antilles
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave centered a few hundred miles south-southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.  Some slow development of this system is possible
early next week while it moves generally westward across the central
and western tropical Atlantic at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

红豆棒冰冰

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Western Caribbean/Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL94):
A broad area of low pressure over the western Caribbean Sea
associated with a tropical wave continues to produce widespread
shower and thunderstorm activity. Development of this system is not
expected today while it moves west-northwestward at around 15 mph,
and an Air Force reconnaissance mission planned for today has been
canceled. The disturbance is then expected to move westward over the
Yucatan Peninsula and emerge over the Bay of Campeche late Saturday
or early Sunday, at which point some development will be possible.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall associated with the
tropical wave will affect portions of Central America and Mexico
through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

2. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
A low pressure system located about 1500 miles east-southeast of the
Windward Islands is gradually becoming better defined.  Showers and
thunderstorms are also showing signs of organization, and a tropical
depression or tropical storm will likely form later today or on
Saturday. This system is expected to move westward at 15 to 20 mph
and approach the Lesser Antilles by the end of the weekend.
Interests there should monitor the progress of this system.  For
more information, including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

3. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave centered several hundred miles south-southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.  Some slow development of this system is possible
next week while it moves generally westward across the central
and western tropical Atlantic at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Cangialosi/Zelinsky

红豆棒冰冰

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Western Caribbean/Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL94):
An area of low pressure over the western Caribbean Sea associated
with a tropical wave continues to produce widespread shower and
thunderstorm activity. Development of this disturbance is not
expected today while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
The disturbance is forecast move westward over the Yucatan Peninsula
and emerge over the Bay of Campeche late Saturday or early Sunday,
at which point some development will be possible. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall associated with the tropical wave will
affect portions of Central America and Mexico through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

2. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
A low pressure system located about 1400 miles east-southeast of the
Windward Islands is becoming better defined and the associated
showers and thunderstorms are increasing in organization. If these
trends continue, a tropical depression will likely form later today.
This system is expected to move westward at 15 to 20 mph and
approach the Windward Islands by the end of the weekend, and
Hurricane or Tropical Storm Watches could be required for portions
of that region tonight or early Saturday. For more information,
including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

3. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.  Some slow development of this system is possible
next week while it moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph across
the central and western tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.


High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Cangialosi/D. Zelinsky

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 282333
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Depression Two, located over the central tropical Atlantic
Ocean.

Northwestern Caribbean/Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL94):
A broad area of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea
continues to produce widespread but disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity. Development of this low is not anticipated
before it moves inland over the Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday. The
system is then forecast to move west-northwestward, emerging over
the Bay of Campeche Saturday night or early Sunday, where conditions
appear generally conducive for further development. A tropical
depression could form before the system moves inland again early
next week over Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall
associated with the area of low pressure will affect portions of
Central America and Mexico through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands is producing an area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions appear generally conducive
for additional development of this system, and a tropical depression
could form by the middle of next week while it moves generally
westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Two are issued under WMO
header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Two are issued under WMO
header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

$$
Forecaster Papin