‌罗德里格斯岛东北强热带气旋第3号“贝基”(02S.Bheki) - 风眼构建，西南行进，趋向毛里求斯 - MFR:105KT JTWC:115KT

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 131822
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/3/20242025
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 3

2.A POSITION 2024/11/13 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.4 S / 76.0 E
(TEN    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/11/14 06 UTC: 11.0 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2024/11/14 18 UTC: 11.6 S / 75.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 0 NW: 0

36H: 2024/11/15 06 UTC: 12.8 S / 74.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 240 SW: 165 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 130 SW: 0 NW: 55

48H: 2024/11/15 18 UTC: 13.7 S / 73.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 240 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 110 NW: 75

60H: 2024/11/16 06 UTC: 14.5 S / 72.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 195 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45

72H: 2024/11/16 18 UTC: 15.2 S / 71.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 175 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/11/17 18 UTC: 16.1 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 30

120H: 2024/11/18 18 UTC: 16.8 S / 65.5 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 70 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 50 NW: 50

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION AROUND THE SYSTEM HAS GRADUALLY
MOVED CLOSER TO THE CENTER AND IS BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED. THE SSMIS
F16 MICROWAVE IMAGE FROM 1340Z CONFIRMS THIS TREND. THE HY-2C PASS
FROM 1330Z SHOWS A MORE CONCENTRIC BUT STILL ELONGATED DEPRESSION
CIRCULATION WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 25KT IN THE NORTH-WEST SEMICIRCLE.
SYSTEM 03-20242025 REMAINS A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER WITH WINDS OF
25KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. WITH THE WEAKENING
OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE, THE SYSTEM IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THEN, WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST, THE SYSTEM SHOULD ACCELERATE WITH A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
TRACK FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS.
AS THE SYSTEM IS STILL POORLY ORGANIZED, DISPERSION IS FAIRLY STRONG
IN THE VERY SHORT TERM, BUT MOST MODELS SUGGEST THIS ACCELERATION AND
SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK FROM THIS WEEKEND ONWARDS. AT THE START OF NEXT
WEEK, DISPERSION WILL BECOME STRONGER AGAIN, WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE
UPPER RIDGE THAT COULD GIVE THE SYSTEM A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK. THE
TRACK FORECASTED BY RSMC IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS TRACK (A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH) AND THE IFS TRACK (A LITTLE FASTER).

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR THAT IS
CURRENTLY LIMITING THE SYSTEM'S ORGANIZATION SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, PERMITTING INTENSIFICATION. UNDER THE RIGHT
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (HIGH OCEAN POTENTIAL, GOOD LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LITTLE SHEAR), THE
SYSTEM COULD REACH THE STAGE OF A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM TOMORROW.
FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS, UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SHARPLY. DESPITE A
TEMPORARY SHEAR STRESS THAT COULD TEMPORARILY CAP INTENSITY AND BRING
DRIER AIR TO THE SYSTEM'S PERIPHERY, THE ACCELERATION OF MOVEMENT IN
THE DIRECTION OF THE SHEAR COULD, ON THE CONTRARY, MAINTAIN A CONTEXT
FAVORABLE TO ITS INTENSIFICATION. THE PRESENT FORECAST SUGGESTS A
STOP IN THE INTENSIFICATION ON FRIDAY AT THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
STAGE, FOLLOWED BY AN INTENSIFICATION TO THE STRONG TROPICAL STORM
STAGE ON SATURDAY. IT COULD REACH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE ON
SUNDAY BEFORE LEVELLING OFF EARLY NEXT WEEK.

IT'S STILL TOO EARLY TO FORECAST POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND,
BUT RODRIGUES RESIDENTS ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW THE SYSTEM'S EVOLUTION.=

pocketbox

WTIO30 FMEE 140026
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/3/20242025
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 3

2.A POSITION 2024/11/14 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.6 S / 76.0 E
(TEN    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/11/14 12 UTC: 10.9 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2024/11/15 00 UTC: 11.8 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 0 NW: 55

36H: 2024/11/15 12 UTC: 13.1 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 240 SW: 155 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 130 SW: 85 NW: 55

48H: 2024/11/16 00 UTC: 14.1 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 250 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 95

60H: 2024/11/16 12 UTC: 14.9 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SW: 230 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

72H: 2024/11/17 00 UTC: 15.5 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 240 SW: 220 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/11/18 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 205 SW: 185 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

120H: 2024/11/19 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 66.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 220 SW: 165 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 70 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 30

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5-

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION AROUND THE SYSTEM HAS GRADUALLY
MOVED CLOSER TO THE CENTER AND IS BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED. GCOM AND
SSMIS F18 MICROWAVE IMAGES FROM 2049Z AND 2140Z CONFIRM THIS TREND.
THE HY-2B AND OCEANSAT-3 PASSES FROM 1730Z AND 830Z SHOW A MORE
CONCENTRIC BUT STILL ELONGATED DEPRESSION CIRCULATION WITH MAXIMUM
WINDS OF 25KT. DVORAK'S SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS BASED ON MET ALSO SHOWS
BETTER ORGANIZATION AND IS ESTIMATED AT 2.5-. THE 03-20242025 SYSTEM
IS THEREFORE POSITIONED AS A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WITH WINDS OF 25KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. WITH THE WEAKENING
OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE, THE SYSTEM IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THEN, WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST, THE SYSTEM SHOULD ACCELERATE WITH A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
TRACK FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS. AS THE SYSTEM IS STILL POORLY ORGANIZED,
DISPERSION IS FAIRLY STRONG IN THE VERY SHORT TERM, BUT MOST MODELS
SUGGEST THIS ACCELERATION AND SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK FROM THIS WEEKEND
ONWARDS. AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK, DISPERSION WILL BECOME STRONGER
AGAIN, WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE THAT COULD GIVE THE SYSTEM
A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK. THE TRACK FORECASTED BY RSMC IS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE GFS TRACK (A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH) AND THE IFS TRACK (A
LITTLE FASTER).

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR THAT IS
CURRENTLY LIMITING THE SYSTEM'S ORGANIZATION SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN
OVER THE NEXT HOURS, PERMITTING INTENSIFICATION. UNDER THE RIGHT
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (HIGH OCEAN POTENTIAL, GOOD LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LITTLE SHEAR), THE
SYSTEM COULD REACH THE STAGE OF A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM TODAY. FROM
FRIDAY ONWARDS, UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SHARPLY. DESPITE A TEMPORARY
SHEAR STRESS THAT COULD TEMPORARILY CAP INTENSITY AND BRING DRIER AIR
TO THE SYSTEM'S PERIPHERY, THE ACCELERATION OF MOVEMENT IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE SHEAR COULD, ON THE CONTRARY, MAINTAIN A CONTEXT
FAVORABLE TO ITS INTENSIFICATION. THE PRESENT FORECAST SUGGESTS A
STOP IN THE INTENSIFICATION ON FRIDAY AT THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
STAGE, FOLLOWED BY AN INTENSIFICATION TO THE STRONG TROPICAL STORM
STAGE ON SATURDAY. IT COULD REACH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE ON
SUNDAY BEFORE LEVELLING OFF EARLY NEXT WEEK.

IT'S STILL TOO EARLY TO FORECAST POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND,
BUT RODRIGUES RESIDENTS ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW THE SYSTEM'S EVOLUTION.=

renzhetegong

TPXS10 PGTW 140318
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 95S (SE OF DIEGO GARCIA)
B. 14/0240Z
C. 9.43S
D. 75.60E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .5 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

   SWANSON

2018_26W

WTXS21 PGTW 140530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.6S 75.6E TO 13.4S 73.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 140500Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.9S 75.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.2S 74.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.9S 75.4E, APPROXIMATELY 230 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
FULLY OBSCURED BY DEEP PERSISTENT CONVECTION ALOFT. A 140049Z SSMIS
F16 37GHZ MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WITH MODERATE
(15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, STRONG DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW AND
WARM (27-28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE CONSOLIDATION OF 95S AND ANTICIPATED
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
150530Z.//
NNNN

renzhetegong

总算TCFA了。
这种NHC来分析可能已经给40+kt了

pocketbox

WTIO30 FMEE 140710
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/3/20242025
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BHEKI)

2.A POSITION 2024/11/14 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.2 S / 75.8 E
(TEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 140 NW: 100

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/11/14 18 UTC: 11.1 S / 75.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 230 SW: 205 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 0 NW: 65

24H: 2024/11/15 06 UTC: 12.3 S / 74.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 260 SW: 230 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 95 NW: 65

36H: 2024/11/15 18 UTC: 13.5 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 270 SW: 230 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45

48H: 2024/11/16 06 UTC: 14.3 S / 72.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 280 SW: 285 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 0

60H: 2024/11/16 18 UTC: 15.1 S / 71.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SW: 250 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

72H: 2024/11/17 06 UTC: 15.8 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 270 SW: 250 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 155 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 30

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/11/18 06 UTC: 16.6 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 270 SW: 220 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 30

120H: 2024/11/19 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 65.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 280 SW: 230 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 60 NW: 40
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 30

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION AROUND THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED EVEN
CLOSER TO THE CENTER AND IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED. THE
SSMIS F17 MICROWAVE PICTURE FROM 0110Z CONFIRMS THIS TREND AND EVEN
SHOWS ALMOST A RING OF CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER. THE VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE FROM 06UTC SHOWS WELL-ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH GOOD
ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE. WITH THESE ELEMENTS, THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON THE MET ALLOWS US TO ESTIMATE THE INTENSITY OF THE
MAXIMUM WINDS AT 40KT AND THEREFORE TO CLASSIFY THE SYSTEM AS A
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM BEARING THE NAME BEKHI.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. WITH THE WEAKENING
OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE, THE SYSTEM IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THEN, WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST, THE SYSTEM SHOULD ACCELERATE WITH A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
TRACK FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS. AS THE SYSTEM IS STILL POORLY ORGANIZED,
DISPERSION IS FAIRLY STRONG IN THE VERY SHORT TERM, BUT MOST MODELS
SUGGEST THIS ACCELERATION AND SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK FROM FRIDAY
EVENING. AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK, DISPERSION WILL BECOME STRONGER
AGAIN, WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE THAT COULD GIVE THE SYSTEM
A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK. THE TRACK FORECASTED BY RSMC IS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE GFS TRACK (A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH) AND THE IFS TRACK (A
LITTLE FASTER).

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR, THAT
CURRENTLY LIMITS THE SYSTEM'S ORGANIZATION, SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST, ALLOWING
IT TO INTENSIFY. WITH GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (HIGH OCEAN
POTENTIAL, GOOD LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE
AND LITTLE SHEAR), THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. FROM
FRIDAY ONWARDS, UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SHARPLY. DESPITE A TEMPORARY
SHEAR STRESS, WHICH COULD TEMPORARILY CAP INTENSITY AND BRING DRIER
AIR TO THE SYSTEM'S PERIPHERY. THE ACCELERATION OF MOTION IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE SHEAR COULD, ON THE CONTRARY, MAINTAIN A CONTEXT
FAVORABLE TO ITS INTENSIFICATION. THE PRESENT FORECAST SUGGESTS A
SLOW INTENSIFICATION ON FRIDAY TO THE SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE IN
THE EVENING, FOLLOWED BY A MORE RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE STAGE ON SATURDAY EVENING OR SUNDAY MORNING. AFTER PEAKING
EARLY NEXT WEEK, IT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN.

IT'S STILL TOO EARLY TO FORECAST POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND,
BUT RODRIGUES RESIDENTS ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW THE SYSTEM'S EVOLUTION.=

renzhetegong

SSD德法分析报文出现02S编号

TXXS26 KNES 140649
TCSSIO
CCA
A. 02S (BHEKI)
B. 14/0530Z
C. 10.2S
D. 75.9E
E. THREE/MET-9
F. T3.0/3.0
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...COR FOR SYSTEM NAME. 5.5/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF
2.5. POLEWARD UPR-LVL OUTFLOW GOOD AND OVERALL SYMMETRY IMPROVING. MET=2.5
AND PT=3.0. FT BASED ON PT DUE TO IRREG/PULSING CONVECTION.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...KONON

renzhetegong

数值预报集合

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 141327
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/3/20242025
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BHEKI)

2.A POSITION 2024/11/14 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.0 S / 76.0 E
(TEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY.

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 140 NW: 100

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/11/15 00 UTC: 11.2 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SW: 195 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 75 SW: 120 NW: 95

24H: 2024/11/15 12 UTC: 12.6 S / 74.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SW: 195 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 65

36H: 2024/11/16 00 UTC: 13.7 S / 72.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 240 SW: 220 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 140 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2024/11/16 12 UTC: 14.5 S / 71.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 0

60H: 2024/11/17 00 UTC: 15.2 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 240 SW: 260 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

72H: 2024/11/17 12 UTC: 15.8 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 260 SW: 250 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 155 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/11/18 12 UTC: 16.6 S / 66.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 260 SW: 230 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 155 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

120H: 2024/11/19 12 UTC: 16.9 S / 63.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SW: 220 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 60 NW: 40

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION AROUND BHEKI HAS ADOPTED A BAND
PATTERN. THE SSMIS F18 MICROWAVE IMAGE FROM 1110Z HAS ENABLED US TO
DETERMINE THE POSITION OF THE CENTER WITH MORE PRECISION AND TO
OBSERVE A VERY SLIGHT INCREASE IN CONVECTION.
THESE ELEMENTS SHOW A SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN CLOUD STRUCTURE AROUND THE
CENTER. THE VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURE FROM 12UTC STILL SHOWS A NICE
ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE. THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON THE MET
ALLOWS US TO ESTIMATE AN INTENSITY OF 3.0+ AND THEREFORE MAXIMUM
WINDS STILL AT 40KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. WITH THE WEAKENING
OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE, THE SYSTEM IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THEN, WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST, THE SYSTEM SHOULD ACCELERATE WITH A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
TRACK FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS. AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK, A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ON THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL WILL PREVENT THE SYSTEM
FROM MOVING TOO FAR SOUTH, CAUSING IT TO TAKE A MORE WESTERLY
DIRECTION, STEERING ITS TRAJECTORY TOWARDS THE OPEN NORTH OF THE
MASCARENE ISLANDS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR, THAT
CURRENTLY LIMITS THE SYSTEM'S ORGANIZATION, SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST, ALLOWING
IT TO INTENSIFY. WITH GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (HIGH OCEAN
POTENTIAL, GOOD LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE
AND LITTLE SHEAR), THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. FROM
FRIDAY ONWARDS, UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SHARPLY. DESPITE A TEMPORARY
SHEAR STRESS, WHICH COULD TEMPORARILY CAP INTENSITY AND BRING DRIER
AIR TO THE SYSTEM'S PERIPHERY. THE ACCELERATION OF MOTION IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE SHEAR COULD, ON THE CONTRARY, MAINTAIN A CONTEXT
FAVORABLE TO ITS INTENSIFICATION.  THE PRESENT FORECAST SUGGESTS A
SLOW INTENSIFICATION TO THE STRONG TROPICAL STORM STAGE BY FRIDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A MORE RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
STAGE BY SATURDAY EVENING OR SUNDAY MORNING. AFTER PEAKING EARLY NEXT
WEEK, IT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN.

IT'S STILL TOO EARLY TO FORECAST POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND,
BUT RODRIGUES RESIDENTS ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW THE SYSTEM'S EVOLUTION.=

renzhetegong

TPXS10 PGTW 141203
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 95S (BHEKI)
B. 14/1130Z
C. 10.27S
D. 75.85E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .60 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. MET YIELDS 2.5. PT AGREES WITH DT. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   14/1059Z  10.38S  76.17E  SSMS

   PETERSEN

TXXS26 KNES 141308
TCSSIO
A.  02S (BHEKI)
B.  14/1130Z
C.  10.3S
D.  75.7E
E.  THREE/MET-9
F.  T3.0/3.0
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR
H.  REMARKS...7/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 3.0. THE MET IS 2.5. THE PT
IS 3.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL

...GATLING