苏门答腊岛西南01U(96S) - 6.8S 96.3E

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数值预报系集

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GFS与ECMWF系集调强

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Tropical Low 01U

Indian Ocean Tropical Low 01U may become a tropical cyclone from late Monday

• A weak tropical low (01U) lies southwest of Sumatra in the Indian Ocean.
• It is forecast to only slowly develop, with the risk of becoming a tropical cyclone increasing to moderate from late Monday.
• The low may move into the far northwest corner of the Australian Area of Responsibility on Sunday or Monday, but then move west out of the region during the coming week.
• There is a low risk of a direct impact to Cocos (Keeling) Islands, however, showers and thunderstorms are likely with heavy rainfall possible.
  

Last updated
an hour ago, 09:06 am UTC

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Possible entry of a low-pressure system from the Indonesian or Australian zone of responsibility:

The latest ASCAT swath do not allow us to locate the elongated low-pressure circulation analyzed by the models this
Saturday near 9°S/96°E. Over this area under Indonesian responsibility, convective activity is becoming more organized,
and the BOM notes the potential for intensification linked to this 01U system. In line with the aforementionned
equatorial wave activity, low-level convergence should gradually improve between this weekend and next week, in a very
warm and moist environment. North-to-northeasterly wind shear, still quite unfavorable in the short term, should weaken
next week, possibly enabling cyclogenesis.

Most deterministic and ensemblist models suggest the formation of a tropical low early to mid next week between the
Indonesian and Australian areas of responsibility, then moving in most scenarios into our area of responsibility, but with
still an uncertain timing, which has been delayed compared with previous forecasts. The risk of it reaching or being at
tropical storm stage while west of 90°E remains expected from the beginning of next week, and increases by mid-week.

Over the extreme northeast of the basin, the risk of a tropical storm entering our area of responsibility is estimated to be
moderate from Wednesday November 27, then high on Thursday.

ygsj24

ABIO10 PGTW 231800 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
CORRECTED/231800Z-241800ZNOV2024//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
4.4N 92.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.0N 88.4E, APPROXIMATELY 439 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF PORT BLAIR. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
(EIR) SHOWS THE SYSTEM STILL STRUGGLING TO FOCUS AND CONSOLIDATE, BUT
THE ENERGY IN THE MONSOON TROF HAS INCREASED, WITH CONVECTION
SPREADING ALL THE WAY FROM THE MALAYSIAN PENINSULA TO OVER SRI LANKA.
THE SYSTEM IS BEING DRIVEN BY A VIGOROUS WESTERLY WIND BURST ALONG THE
EQUATOR AND IS PAIRED WITH ITS TWIN CYCLONE IN THE SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE, INVEST 96S. THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND THE SYSTEM IS FAVORABLE
FOR CONTINUED SLOW DEVELOPMENT LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 10-15KTS,
GOOD UPPER-LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF
29-30 C. THE MJO PULSE PROVIDING THE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER
THE FAR EASTERN INDIAN OCEAN FOR ANOTHER FEW DAYS BEFORE TRACKING OVER
THE MARITIME CONTINENT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99B WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE AS IT
TRACKS TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF INDIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.2S
92.5E, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A POORLY-ORGANIZED,
YET CONSOLIDATING LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS BEING DRIVEN BY A VIGOROUS
WESTERLY WIND BURST ALONG THE EQUATOR AND IS PAIRED WITH ITS TWIN
CYCLONE IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE, INVEST 99B. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER LOOPS SHOW AMPLE DEEP MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM ALL
SIDES AND THERE IS A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO SUSTAIN THE
SYSTEM INCLUDING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES BELOW 10KTS OVER THE
DEVELOPING SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MONSOON TROUGH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE MJO PULSE
PROVIDING THE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE FAR EASTERN INDIAN
OCEAN FOR ANOTHER FEW DAYS BEFORE TRACKING OVER THE MARITIME CONTINENT
AND  BOTH ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATE VERY SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED AND REMOVED
INFORMATION IN PARA. 1.B.(1) AND (2).//
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