西澳西北热带低压10U(99S→90S) - 18.3S 112.1E

pocketbox

Tropical Low 10U
Tropical low forming to the north of the Pilbara coast.

• A tropical low (10U) is gradually forming over waters to the north of the Pilbara coast. It is likely to remain slow moving before taking a southwest track from late in the weekend.
• The potential for 10U to become a tropical cyclone is rated Moderate from Sunday.
• Another tropical low (11U) may form near the Kimberley from late Thursday. If that low were to develop and strengthen, the chances of 10U developing will decrease.
• No matter which low becomes dominant there is the potential for a system to move west or southwest over the weekend and early next week near the Pilbara coast and could develop further.
  

Last updated
2 hours ago, 11:54 pm UTC

Tropical lows

Today 12:00 pm

Tomorrow 12:00 am

Tomorrow 12:00 pm

Sat 18  Jan 12:00 am

Sat 18  Jan 12:00 pm

Sun 19  Jan 12:00 am

Sun 19  Jan 12:00 pm

Mon 20  Jan 12:00 am

Mon 20  Jan 12:00 pm

Tue 21  Jan 12:00 am

Tue 21  Jan 12:00 pm

Wed 22  Jan 12:00 am

Wed 22  Jan 12:00 pm

Thu 23  Jan 12:00 am

Tropical Low 10U

1 (Very Low)

10 (Low)

10 (Low)

15 (Low)

15 (Low)

25 (Moderate)

30 (Moderate)

35 (Moderate)

40 (Moderate)

45 (Moderate)

45 (Moderate)

45 (Moderate)

40 (Moderate)

30 (Moderate)

pocketbox

ABIO10 PGTW 160130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/160130Z-161800ZJAN2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/151951ZJAN2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 15JAN25 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 25.7S 42.3E, APPROXIMATELY 239 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
EUROPA ISLAND, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT
85 KNOTS GUSTING TO 105 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 152100) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 18.0S
112.4E, APPROXIMATELY 288 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 152220Z SSMIS 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN AREA OF CIRCULATION WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED
LLCC WITH DEEP CYCLING CONVECTION PRIMARILY ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. A 151427Z ASCAT METOP-B PASS INDICATES A
CONSOLIDATING CIRCULATION WITH STRONGER WINDS (20KTS) WRAPPING INTO
THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR (15-20KTS), MODERATE DIVERGENCE
ALOFT, BACKGROUND LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MONSOON TROUGH, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28C). GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND POTENTIALLY
INTERACT WITH OR MERGE WITH A SEPARATE CIRCULATION IN THE VICINITY OF
BROOME, AUSTRALIA BEFORE ULTIMATELY TURNING SOUTHWESTWARD OFFSHORE OF
WESTERN AUSTRALIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18
TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA 2.B(1).//
NNNN

pocketbox

Tropical Low 10U
Very Low risk of Tropical Low 10U developing into a tropical cyclone.

• A weak tropical low (10U) is over waters to the north of the Pilbara coast.
• Another tropical low (11U) is forming near the Kimberley and the two systems will interact, weakening tropical low 10U.
• By Saturday 10U is expected to dissipate, thus a Very Low risk of developing into a tropical cyclone.
• The risk of this low developing/forming has decreased and as such this disturbance will not appear on subsequent forecasts. The situation will continue to be monitored and updated here if required.
• For the risk of a tropical cyclone developing north of the Pilbara coast, refer to products associated with Tropical Low 11U.
  

Last updated
4 hours ago, 09:08 am UTC

Tropical lows

Tomorrow 12:00 am

Tomorrow 12:00 pm

Sat 18  Jan 12:00 am

Sat 18  Jan 12:00 pm

Sun 19  Jan 12:00 am

Sun 19  Jan 12:00 pm

Mon 20  Jan 12:00 am

Mon 20  Jan 12:00 pm

Tue 21  Jan 12:00 am

Tue 21  Jan 12:00 pm

Wed 22  Jan 12:00 am

Wed 22  Jan 12:00 pm

Thu 23  Jan 12:00 am

Thu 23  Jan 12:00 pm

Tropical Low 10U

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

ygsj24

ABIO10 PGTW 171200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/171200Z-171800ZJAN2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/170751ZJAN2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 17JAN25 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 33.7S 54.8E, APPROXIMATELY 792 NM SOUTH OF ST DENIS, AND
HAD TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 28 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS GUSTING TO
65 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 170900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
17.2S 112.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.8S 120.0E, APPROXIMATELY 187 NM
NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND AN AMSR2 GW1 36GHZ MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT
FRAGMENTED CLOUD BANDS TO THE NORTH, WITH A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND FLARING CONVECTION TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE BROAD CIRCULATION HAS BEEN IDENTIFIED BETWEEN TWO
COALESCING LOW- TO MID-LEVEL AND SEPARATE VORTICES. A PARTIAL 171022Z
METOP-B ASCAT SCATTEROMETRY PASS REVEALS AN ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD
IDENTIFIED BY A SWATH OF 15-20 KNOTS IN THE NORTH-NORTHEAST QUADRANT
AND AN AREA OF ELEVATED WINDS (20-25 KNOTS) APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES INVEST
90S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO VERY
WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (LESS THAN 15 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS
AND THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90S
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND TRACK
TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO
MEDIUM.//
NNNN

Leonardo

TPXS10 PGTW 171508

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90S (N OF PORT HEDLAND)

B. 17/1430Z

C. XX.XX

D. XXX.XX

E. N/A/GK2A

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: POSITION OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER COULD NOT BE
FOUND.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   TIMMERMAN

Leonardo

TXXS27 KNES 171228
TCSSIO

A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90S)

B.  17/1130Z

C.  18.0S

D.  115.7E

E.  FIVE/HIMAWARI-9

F.  TOO WEAK

G.  IR/EIR/SWIR/VIS

H.  REMARKS...PBO EXTRAPOLATION. CIRCULATION NO LONGER APPEARS TO BE
CLOSED AND HAS BECOME ENTRAINED IN A DEVELOPING CIRCULATION LOCATED
WEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL BULLETIN ISSUED FOR
THIS SYSTEM.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    NIL


...TURK

=

Leonardo

Leonardo

ygsj24

WTAU05 APRF 171853
IDW23100

40:2:2:24:19S120E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 1853 UTC 17 JANUARY 2025

GALE WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1800 UTC a Tropical Low was centred within 60 nautical miles of
latitude nineteen decimal zero south (19.0S)
longitude one hundred and twenty decimal zero east (120.0E)
Recent movement : west southwest at 9 knots
Maximum winds   : 30 knots
Central pressure: 995 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 130 nautical miles in SE quadrant
  and within 120 nautical miles in SW quadrant

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 30 knots near the centre increasing to 35 knots by 1800 UTC 18
January.

From 1800 UTC 18 January winds above 34 knots within 130 nautical miles in SE
quadrant
  and within 120 nautical miles in SW quadrant with rough seas and moderate
swell.

Forecast positions
At 0600 UTC 18 January: Within 80 nautical miles of 19.2 south 117.8 east
                        Central pressure 996 hPa.
                        Winds to 30 knots near centre.
At 1800 UTC 18 January: Within 75 nautical miles of 18.7 south 116.5 east
                        Central pressure 990 hPa.
                        Winds to 35 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to [email protected].

Next warning will be issued by 0100 UTC 18 January 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	2 am January 18	tropical low	19.0S	120.0E	110
+6hr	8 am January 18	tropical low	19.1S	118.9E	135
+12hr	2 pm January 18	tropical low	19.2S	117.8E	145
+18hr	8 pm January 18	tropical low	18.8S	117.1E	150
+24hr	2 am January 19	tropical low	18.7S	116.5E	135
+36hr	2 pm January 19	tropical low	19.2S	115.0E	120
+48hr	2 am January 20	2	20.1S	113.0E	130
+60hr	2 pm January 20	2	21.4S	110.7E	160
+72hr	2 am January 21	3	22.5S	108.7E	175

ygsj24

IDW24100

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 4
Issued at 5:53 am WST on Saturday 18 January 2025

Headline:
A tropical low (11U) forecast to develop to a tropical cyclone Sunday, with gale-force winds along the Pilbara coast.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
De Grey to Mardie, including Port Hedland, Karratha and Dampier.

Watch Zone
Mardie to Ningaloo, including Onslow and Exmouth.

Cancelled Zone
None.

A tropical low north of the Pilbara coast is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone on Sunday. The developing low is expected to move on a general westward track, parallel to the Pilbara coast today and on Sunday. From Monday the cyclone is expected to be moving southwest and away from the WA coast.

Hazards:
GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS may develop about coastal and island communities between De Grey and Dampier including Port Hedland, Karratha and Dampier from early Sunday morning extending west to Mardie later Sunday morning.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS may extend from Mardie to Exmouth later on Sunday and to Ningaloo early Monday as the system moves further west.

As the system moves westwards, parallel to north WA coast during the weekend, a storm tide is expected between De Grey and Exmouth during Sunday and Monday. Large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.

Recommended Action:
Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 9:00 am AWST Saturday 18 January.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	5 am January 18	tropical low	19.4S	119.5E	55
+6hr	11 am January 18	tropical low	19.2S	118.7E	85
+12hr	5 pm January 18	tropical low	18.9S	117.9E	100
+18hr	11 pm January 18	tropical low	18.9S	117.3E	110
+24hr	5 am January 19	tropical low	18.9S	116.3E	115
+36hr	5 pm January 19	1	19.7S	114.4E	120
+48hr	5 am January 20	2	20.5S	112.1E	135
+60hr	5 pm January 20	3	21.7S	110.0E	155
+72hr	5 am January 21	3	22.9S	107.8E	175