马达加斯加以东中等热带风暴第7号“法伊达”(11S.Faida) - 强风切阻发展

从小爱云图

之前位于南纬11.2度，东经80.5度的对流区（93S号热带气旋）现在位于南纬12.1度，东经78.7度，大约距离迪戈加西亚岛东南方向464海里。动画多光谱卫星图像（MSI）显示一个旋转的狭长区域，边缘有多处涡流区。主要低层环流中心（LLCC）及其相关的深对流位于东西走向的槽线的西南部分。260107Z时次的SSMIS 91GHz微波图像也显示破碎且狭长的对流带绕过评估的LLCC，主要向东南流动。此外，部分METOP-C ASCAT散射计观测揭示了西南方向的20-25节风场，25-30节的风速增加的区域开始卷入LLCC。另外，在环流北部的几个船只观测报告了西风风速在25-30节之间。环境分析表明，由于温暖的海表温度（28-29摄氏度）、较低的垂直风切变（小于15节）以及良好的赤道ward和极地ward流出高空气流，93S号热带气旋处于进一步发展的有利环境中。全球模型对于未来24-36小时93S号热带气旋的整合情况达成良好共识，因为它缓慢地向西漂移。ECMWF和GEFS集合模型对总体上向西偏南的路径也有一定程度的共识。最大持续表面风速估计为28至33节。最低海平面气压估计接近1002百帕。未来24小时内发展成一个显著的热带气旋的可能性已升级为中等。

Leonardo

TPXS11 PGTW 261522

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93S (SE OF DIEGO GARCIA)

B. 26/1430Z

C. 12.11S

D. 78.54E

E. FIVE/MET9

F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/06HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 71A/PBO XTRP/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET YIELDS 2.0. PT YIELDS 1.5. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   TIMMERMAN

Leonardo

TXXS29 KNES 261159
TCSSIO

A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93S)

B.  26/1130Z

C.  12.3S

D.  78.4E

E.  THREE/MET-9

F.  T1.5/2.0

G.  IR/EIR/VIS

H.  REMARKS...SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY 3/10 BANDING ON A LOG-10
SCALE. DT=1.5 MET AND PT AGREE. THE FT IS BASED ON THE MET DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE POSITION OF THE LLCC.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    NIL


...FISHER

=

Leonardo

Leonardo

底层正在构建中

ygsj24

WTXS21 PGTW 280830
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.0S 76.2E TO 16.2S 71.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 280830Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.3S 76.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.1S 78.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.3S 76.0E, APPROXIMATELY 317 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED, FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 C), SLIGHTLY
OFFSET BY LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS PORTRAY GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD. GFS IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE, DEPICTING GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
280830Z.//
NNNN

---

ABIO10 PGTW 280830
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/280830Z-281800ZJAN2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/280821ZJAN2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.1S 78.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.3S 76.0E, APPROXIMATELY 317 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED, FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 C),
SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS PORTRAY GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD. GFS IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE, DEPICTING GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW
280830) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 24.2S
42.1E, APPROXIMATELY 143 NM SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS 92S WITH AN ELONGATED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 92S IS
IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY
MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR
WITHIN THE WESTERN SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN AGREEMENT ON A SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS
WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM STALLS WITHIN THE SOUTHERN
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE:  UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO
HIGH AND ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(2).//
NNNN

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 281304
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/7/20242025
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 7

2.A POSITION 2025/01/28 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.9 S / 75.9 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/1.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/29 00 UTC: 12.8 S / 75.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 120

24H: 2025/01/29 12 UTC: 14.3 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 95

36H: 2025/01/30 00 UTC: 15.1 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 0 NW: 65

48H: 2025/01/30 12 UTC: 15.8 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 0

60H: 2025/01/31 00 UTC: 16.4 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 165 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 55

72H: 2025/01/31 12 UTC: 16.9 S / 65.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 230 SW: 165 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 130 SW: 95 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/02/01 12 UTC: 17.9 S / 60.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 270 SW: 165 NW: 110

120H: 2025/02/02 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 56.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 295 SW: 165 NW: 110

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=1.5 CI=1.5

A LOW-PRESSURE CIRCULATION FORMED SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO-GARCIA AT THE
END OF LAST WEEK. THE CONVECTION PROGRESSIVELY ORGANIZED AND
MAINTAINED ITSELF DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS SOUTH OF A CENTER VISIBLE
WITH THE LOW-LAYER CIRCULATION ON THE VISIBLE IMAGES AS WELL AS ON THE
0858Z GCOM IMAGE. THE PARTIAL ASCAT PASS FROM 0408Z THIS MORNING
MEASURES WINDS AT 25KT THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. AN INITIAL DVORAK
CLASSIFICATION OF 1.5 CAN THUS BE ESTABLISHED FROM THIS TUESDAY JANUARY
28 AT 12UTC AND THE SYSTEM IS CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-WEST THEN WEST-SOUTH-WEST
ALONG THE EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTH-EAST. THE WEAKENING OR DEEPENING OF THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
COULD SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER THE SYSTEM'S TRACK, MAKING IT HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN FROM THURSDAY OR FRIDAY ONWARDS.

THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS ON THE RISE THIS TUESDAY EVENING IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONTEXT UNTIL TOMORROW WEDNESDAY:
MODERATE DEEP SHEAR, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE UNDER THE RIDGE,
HIGH OCEAN POTENTIAL AND FAIRLY GOOD LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO INTENSIFICATION INTO A TROPICAL STORM, WITH AN ESTIMATED
PEAK IN INTENSITY ON THURSDAY. THEREAFTER, THE INTRUSION OF DRY AIR
FROM THE NORTH COULD LIMIT ITS INTENSIFICATION.

THE SYSTEM DOES NOT POSE A THREAT TO INHABITED LAND FOR THE NEXT 72
HOURS.

THE SYSTEM'S CURRENT INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY THE ISSUANCE OF
REGULAR WARNINGS. NEXT WARNING TOMORROW AT 0600Z.

yhh

WTXS31 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/280821ZJAN2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   281200Z --- NEAR 11.7S 76.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.7S 76.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z --- 12.7S 75.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z --- 13.9S 75.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   300000Z --- 15.0S 73.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   301200Z --- 15.7S 72.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   311200Z --- 16.7S 67.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   011200Z --- 18.4S 63.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z --- 20.4S 60.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 12.0S 76.1E.
28JAN25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 352
NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 281200Z IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z AND 291500Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 280830).//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 281500
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING
   
4. NR 001//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 11.7S 76.2E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 352 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
18. CYCLONE 11S WITH A WELL-DEFINED, EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
    
19. CENTER (LLCC). PERSISTENT CONVECTION IS PLACED OVER THE
    
20. SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION, REVEALING THE TILTED
    
21. NATURE OF THE VORTEX. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 11S IS
    
22. IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED
    
23. BY MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE
    
24. TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY DRY AIR TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC AND
    
25. MODERATE (15-20 KTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL
    
26. POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC
    
27. IN THE ANIMATED MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED
    
28. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 280845Z AMSR2 WINDSPEED IMAGE
    
29. SHOWING 32-37 KTS WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT BUT COULD BE
    
30. ELEVATED DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF CONVECTION. AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES
    
31. ARE INTERPRETED TO BE SLIGHTLY LOW DUE TO THE EXPOSED NATURE OF THE
    
32. LLCC.
    
33. 
    
34. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA
    
35. 
    
36. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
    
37. RIDGE (STR) CENTERED FAR TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST.
    
38. 
    
39. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
40.    PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
    
41.    KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS
    
42.    FMEE: T1.5 - 25 KTS
    
43. 
    
44. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
    
45.    VWS: 15-20 KTS
    
46.    SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
    
47.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
    
48.    OTHER FACTORS: MILD DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WITHIN THE WESTERN
    
49. SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM
    
50. 
    
51. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
52.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
53.    INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW
    
54.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
55. 
    
56. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
57. 
    
58. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
    
59. MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
    
60. 
    
61. FORECAST DISCUSSION: 11S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG
    
62. THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36,
    
63. A SECOND RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AND DRIVE
    
64. IT MORE WESTWARD. AROUND TAU 96, 11S WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE
    
65. NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THAT RIDGE AND TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD
    
66. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. REGARDING INTENSITY,
    
67. 11S IS FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS TO
    
68. AROUND 40 KTS. AFTER TAU 12, INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN
    
69. THROUGH TAU 48. THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR IS THE TILTED NATURE OF
    
70. THE VORTEX AND PERSISTENT MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR. THESE TWO
    
71. FACTORS WILL INHIBIT ANY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION DURING THIS TIME.
    
72. AROUND TAU 72, MODELS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE NATURE OF THE
    
73. VORTEX ALIGNMENT. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH THE SYSTEM CAN ALIGN, AN
    
74. INTENSIFICATION TREND COULD ENSUE. IF IT REMAINS TILTED IT COULD
    
75. SIMPLY FALL APART. AS FOR NOW, THE JTWC FORECAST CALLS FOR MODERATE
    
76. INTENSIFICATION AFTER TAU 72 DUE TO THE FACT THAT EASTERLY SHEAR
    
77. WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FACTOR.
    
78. 
    
79. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN MODERATE AGREEMENT
    
80. ON THE TRACK OF 11S WITH A 210 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 72
    
81. WHICH OPENS TO 320 NM AT TAU 120. ECMWF IS THE EASTERNMOST MEMBER
    
82. OF CONSENSUS WHILE GFS IS THE WESTERNMOST MEMBER. THE JTWC TRACK
    
83. FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS TRHOUGHOUT THE FORECAST
    
84. PERIOD WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGH TAU 72 AND LOW THEREAFTER.
    
85. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH HIGH VARIANCE BETWEEN
    
86. MODELS. AFTER TAU 24, GFS SUGGESTS A CONTINUAL GRADUAL WEAKENING
    
87. TREND WHILE HAFS-A, HWRF, AND COAMPS-TC SUGGEST SLIGHT
    
88. INTENSIFICATION THOUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, THERE IS AN EXTREME
    
89. DISPARITY BETWEEN GUIDANCE. HAFS-A AND COAMPS-TC SUGGEST RAPID
    
90. INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 120 TO A PEAK OF NEAR 115 KTS WHILE
    
91. HWRF SUGGESTS A CONSTANT INTENSITY OF AROUND 40 KTS. THE JTWC
    
92. INTENSITY FORECAST IS SHOOTS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO
    
93. SCENARIOS, DUE TO THE EXPECTED MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONEMNT.
    
94. 
    
95. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
96.    TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
    
97.    TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
    
98.    INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW
    
99.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
    
100. NNNN

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理可的呆萌呆毛

11S已經回到他熱愛的南印度洋洋面上

Leonardo

蛇年第一张云图就放在这里了