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[值得关注] 科科斯群岛西南强热带气旋第8号“文斯”(15U/13S.Vince) - 西南移动,微波风眼构建 - BoM:80KT MFR:90KT JTWC:110KT

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强台风

Super Typhoon

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发表于 2025-2-2 08:45 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2025-2-1 17:45 编辑

IDW24010
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 8:40 am WST on Sunday 2 February 2025

A tropical Low, 15U, was located at 8:00 am AWST near 15.5S 100.4E, that is 535
km southeast of Cocos (Keeling) Islands and 800 km southwest of Christmas
Island and moving west at 19 kilometres per hour.
No direct impacts are expected at either Christmas Island or the Cocos
(Keeling) Islands.

Tropical Low 15U is located southeast of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands and is
moving towards the west. It is forecast to develop into a tropical cyclone very
early on Monday, well to the south of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands. During
Tuesday it is likely to move further west southwest, beyond the Australian Area
of Responsibility.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 3:00 pm AWST Sunday 02 February.

IDW27700
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0129 UTC 02/02/2025
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 15U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 15.5S
Longitude: 100.4E
Location Accuracy: within 25nm (45 km)
Movement Towards: west (267 deg)
Speed of Movement: 10 knots (19 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots (65 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots (95 km/h)
Central Pressure: 997 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:   nm (  km)
Radius of Maximum Winds:   nm (  km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 350 nm (650 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  02/0600: 15.4S  99.4E:     035 (070):  035  (065):  997
+12:  02/1200: 15.5S  98.8E:     045 (085):  040  (075):  993
+18:  02/1800: 15.8S  98.0E:     055 (100):  040  (075):  991
+24:  03/0000: 16.1S  97.0E:     060 (110):  045  (085):  991
+36:  03/1200: 16.9S  95.0E:     075 (140):  050  (095):  988
+48:  04/0000: 17.9S  92.6E:     095 (175):  055  (100):  985
+60:  04/1200: 18.8S  90.3E:     110 (205):  060  (110):  977
+72:  05/0000: 19.7S  87.8E:     135 (245):  060  (110):  977
+96:  06/0000:             :              :            :     
+120: 07/0000:             :              :            :     
REMARKS:
Tropical Low 15U slowly developing despite some moderate east northeasterly
vertical wind shear.

15U located over waters well to the south southeast of Cocos (Keeling) Islands
and has been moving steadily west under the influence of a mid-level ridge to
the south. Fairly good confidence in centre position extrapolated from SSMIS
microwave imagery at 2029 UTC.

Have seen gradual improvement to convective banding, largely in western
quadrants with about 13 kn (CIMMS analysis) of east northeast vertical wind
shear impacting development. Intensity set at 35 kn based on earlier
scatterometry and an improving trend. ASCAT at 1430, OSCAT at 1727, and AMSR2
(half pass) at 1913 UTC, indicate maximum winds of 30 to 35 kn to the south of
the low level centre. Since these passes there has been improvement in the
satellite presentation and consequently analysing 35 kn in southern quadrants
only. Dvorak DT 2.5, with either a 0.5 wrap on a curved band pattern or centre
<3/4 degree from the strong gradient with a shear pattern. MET 2.5 with a D
trend, PAT adjusted to 2.0. FT/CI held at 2.0 with constraints applied.
Objective aids at 0000 UTC are ADT 35 kn, AiDT 33 kn, DPrint 29 kn, DMINT 33 kn
(2257 UTC) and SATCON 40 kn (2300UTC) (all 1 min mean).  

There is good model consensus that 15U will track to the west southwest today
and into next week under the influence of a mid-level ridge to the south. 15U
is likely to move west of 90E, leaving the Australian area or Responsibility on
Tuesday. While the system is under the influence of moderate vertical wind
shear, about 13 kn east northeasterly, it is still managing to slowly develop.
The east northeasterly shear is forecast to ease during the rest of today and
the early part of Monday, however, it never completely dissipates, and is
likely to continue to contribute to a slower than average development.
Poleward outflow forecast to improve during Monday with a trough approaching
from the southwest which may aid intensification. During Tuesday expect to see
an increase in dry air to the southwest as well and an increase in the
northeasterly wind shear and consequently intensification is forecast to stall
before the system moves to the west of the Australian region.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 02/0730 UTC.


Time (AWST)Intensity CategoryLatitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr8 am February 2tropical low15.5S100.4E45
+6hr2 pm February 2tropical low15.4S99.4E70
+12hr8 pm February 2tropical low15.5S98.8E85
+18hr2 am February 3115.8S98.0E100
+24hr8 am February 3116.1S97.0E110
+36hr8 pm February 3216.9S95.0E140
+48hr8 am February 4217.9S92.6E175
+60hr8 pm February 4218.8S90.3E205
+72hr8 am February 5219.7S87.8E245

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顶级超台

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发表于 2025-2-2 14:47 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2025-2-2 15:10 编辑

AXAU02 APRF 020707
IDW27700
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
ISSUED BY AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
AT: 0707 UTC 02/02/2025
NAME: TROPICAL LOW
IDENTIFIER: 15U
DATA AT: 0600 UTC
LATITUDE: 15.5S
LONGITUDE: 99.2E
LOCATION ACCURACY: WITHIN 30NM (55 KM)
MOVEMENT TOWARDS: WEST (264 DEG)
SPEED OF MOVEMENT: 10 KNOTS (19 KM/H)
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE WIND: 35 KNOTS (65 KM/H)
MAXIMUM 3-SECOND WIND GUST: 50 KNOTS (95 KM/H)
CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS NE QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS SE QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS SW QUADRANT: 80 NM (150 KM)
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS NW QUADRANT: 60 NM (110 KM)
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS NE QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS SE QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS SW QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS NW QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 64-KNOT WINDS:   NM (  KM)
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS:   NM (  KM)
DVORAK INTENSITY CODE: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
PRESSURE OF OUTERMOST ISOBAR: 1004 HPA
RADIUS OF OUTERMOST CLOSED ISOBAR: 320 NM (590 KM)
FORECAST DATA
DATE/TIME    : LOCATION    : LOC. ACCURACY: MAX WIND   : CENTRAL PRESSURE
(UTC)        : DEGREES     :      NM  (KM): KNOTS(KM/H): HPA
+06:  02/1200: 15.6S  98.5E:     035 (070):  040  (075):  993
+12:  02/1800: 15.7S  97.8E:     045 (085):  040  (075):  991
+18:  03/0000: 16.0S  96.9E:     055 (100):  045  (085):  991
+24:  03/0600: 16.3S  96.1E:     060 (110):  050  (095):  988
+36:  03/1800: 17.3S  93.9E:     075 (140):  055  (100):  988
+48:  04/0600: 18.2S  91.4E:     090 (165):  055  (100):  982
+60:  04/1800: 19.1S  88.9E:     110 (200):  060  (110):  977
+72:  05/0600: 19.8S  86.5E:     130 (240):  065  (120):  974
+96:  06/0600:             :              :            :
+120: 07/0600:             :              :            :
REMARKS:
TROPICAL LOW 15U CONTINUES TO FIGHT AGAINST MODERATE EAST NORTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.

15U LOCATED OVER WATERS WELL TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF COCOS (KEELING) ISLANDS
AND HAS BEEN MOVING STEADILY WEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE SOUTH. CENTRE POSITION ANALYSED USING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY, WITH NO
HELPFUL RECENT PASSES.

CONVECTIVE BANDING IS LARGELY IN WESTERN QUADRANTS AND IS STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP
IN EASTERN QUADRANTS WITH EAST NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF ABOUT 15 TO
20 KN PERSISTING. INTENSITY SET AT 35KN BASED ON LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN.
AN ASCAT PASS AT 0319 UTC CAUGHT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM WITH A SWATH OF
30 KN WINDS, HOWEVER, THIS HASN'T CAPTURED PROBABLY STRONGER WINDS CLOSER TO
THE CENTRE. DVORAK DT 2.5, WITH A 0.4 WRAP. MET/PAT 2.0 WITH A D- TREND. FT/CI
2.0. OBJECTIVE AIDS AT 0530 UTC ARE ADT 33 KN, AIDT 30 KN, AND DPRINT 32 KN
(ALL 1 MIN MEAN).

THERE IS VERY GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS THAT 15U WILL TRACK TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST
TODAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.
15U IS LIKELY TO MOVE WEST OF 90E, LEAVING THE AUSTRALIAN AREA OR
RESPONSIBILITY ON TUESDAY EVENING.

MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT AND WE ALSO
HAVEN'T SEEN THIS EASE YET. HOWEVER, WE HAVE STILL SEEN NEW CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED.
THE EAST NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY EASE THIS EVENING AND THE
EARLY PART OF MONDAY, HOWEVER, IT NEVER COMPLETELY DISSIPATES, AND IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO A SLOWER THAN AVERAGE DEVELOPMENT.
POLEWARD OUTFLOW FORECAST TO IMPROVE DURING MONDAY WITH A TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHICH MAY AID INTENSIFICATION. DURING LATE TUESDAY, AND INTO
WEDNESDAY EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN DRY AIR TO THE SOUTHWEST AS WELL AS AN
INCREASE IN THE NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR AND CONSEQUENTLY INTENSIFICATION IS
FORECAST TO STALL WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE WEST OF THE AUSTRALIAN REGION.

COPYRIGHT COMMONWEALTH OF AUSTRALIA
==
THE NEXT BULLETIN FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY: 02/1330 UTC.=



Time (AWST)Intensity CategoryLatitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr2 pm February 2tropical low15.5S99.2E55
+6hr8 pm February 2tropical low15.6S98.5E70
+12hr2 am February 3115.7S97.8E85
+18hr8 am February 3116.0S96.9E100
+24hr2 pm February 3216.3S96.1E110
+36hr2 am February 4217.3S93.9E140
+48hr2 pm February 4218.2S91.4E165
+60hr2 am February 5219.1S88.9E200
+72hr2 pm February 5319.8S86.5E240

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发表于 2025-2-2 16:09 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2025-2-3 08:00 编辑

WTXS32 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 002   
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   020600Z --- NEAR 15.7S 98.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 98.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   021800Z --- 16.0S 97.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z --- 16.7S 95.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z --- 17.6S 92.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z --- 18.5S 90.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z --- 20.0S 85.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 20.6S 81.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z --- 21.3S 77.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 98.5E.
02FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
240 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 020600Z IS 990 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
022100Z AND 030900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELEVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN



WTXS32 PGTW 020900 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 002A CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 002A CORRECTED
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   020600Z --- NEAR 15.7S 98.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 98.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   021800Z --- 16.0S 97.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z --- 16.7S 95.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z --- 17.6S 92.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z --- 18.5S 90.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z --- 20.0S 85.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 20.6S 81.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z --- 21.3S 77.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 98.5E.
02FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
240 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 020600Z IS 990 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
022100Z AND 030900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CHANGE FROM A SIX-HOURLY WARNING TO A
12 HOURLY WARNING FOR TC 14S.//
NNNN





  1. WDXS32 PGTW 020900
  2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
  3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING
  4. NR 002//
  5. RMKS/
  6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
  7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

  8. SUMMARY:
  9.    INITIAL POSITION: 15.7S 98.9E
  10.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
  11.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 240 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS
  12. ISLANDS
  13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 13 KTS
  14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET

  15. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
  16. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
  17. CYCLONE 13S WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION FORMING OVER THE CENTER AND
  18. A STRONG BANDING FEATURE EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH. ENVIRONMENTAL
  19. ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 13S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
  20. CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10 KTS)
  21. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (27-28 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
  22. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
  23. LOW-LEVEL CLOUD TRACING IN THE ANIMATED MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
  24. OF 40 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY
  25. DVORAK AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.

  26. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE FROM EARLIER SCATTEROMETER
  27. DATA

  28. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
  29. RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST.

  30. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
  31.    PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
  32.    KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
  33.    DEMS: T2.5 - 35 KTS
  34.    APRF: T2.0 - 30 KTS
  35.    CIMSS SATCON: 46 KTS AT 020600Z
  36.    CIMSS ADT: 33 KTS AT 020600Z
  37.    CIMSS AIDT: 30 KTS AT 020600Z
  38.    CIMSS DPRINT:36 KTS AT 020600Z

  39. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
  40.    VWS: 5-10 KTS
  41.    SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
  42.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD

  43. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
  44.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
  45.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
  46.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

  47. 3. FORECAST REASONING.

  48. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
  49. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

  50. FORECAST DISCUSSION: 13S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD, ALONG
  51. THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
  52. PERIOD. REGARDING INTENSITY, 13S IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY
  53. TO AROUND 70 KTS AT TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, FURTHER INTENSIFICATION
  54. WILL BE HALTED AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BECOME BORDERLINE.
  55. HOWEVER, OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS REMAIN FAVORABLE. AS A RESULT,
  56. IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY AFTER TAU 72 THROUGH TAU 120.


  57. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
  58. REGARDING THE TRACK OF 13S WITH A 205 NM CROSS TRACK SPREAD AT TAU
  59. 72 WHICH OPENS UP TO 330 NM AT TAU 120. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
  60. OUTLIERS, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS
  61. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT
  62. REGARDING INTENSITY THOUGH. COAMPS-TC IS A MAJOR OUTLIER, SUGGESTING
  63. MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION AND WEAKENING AFTER TAU 48. THE REMAINDER
  64. OF GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT, AND THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST
  65. FOLLOWS CLOSELY TO THE MAIN GROUPING WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

  66. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
  67.    TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
  68.    TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
  69.    INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
  70.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
  71. NNNN
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发表于 2025-2-2 20:41 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2025-2-2 21:10 编辑

AXAU02 APRF 021306
IDW27700
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
ISSUED BY AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
AT: 1306 UTC 02/02/2025
NAME: TROPICAL LOW
IDENTIFIER: 15U
DATA AT: 1200 UTC
LATITUDE: 15.5S
LONGITUDE: 98.0E
LOCATION ACCURACY: WITHIN 25NM (45 KM)
MOVEMENT TOWARDS: WEST (268 DEG)
SPEED OF MOVEMENT: 12 KNOTS (22 KM/H)
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE WIND: 40 KNOTS (75 KM/H)
MAXIMUM 3-SECOND WIND GUST: 55 KNOTS (100 KM/H)
CENTRAL PRESSURE: 991 HPA
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS NE QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS SE QUADRANT: 60 NM (110 KM)
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS SW QUADRANT: 80 NM (150 KM)
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS NW QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS NE QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS SE QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS SW QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS NW QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 64-KNOT WINDS:   NM (  KM)
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS:   NM (  KM)
DVORAK INTENSITY CODE: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
PRESSURE OF OUTERMOST ISOBAR: 1002 HPA
RADIUS OF OUTERMOST CLOSED ISOBAR: 280 NM (520 KM)
FORECAST DATA
DATE/TIME    : LOCATION    : LOC. ACCURACY: MAX WIND   : CENTRAL PRESSURE
(UTC)        : DEGREES     :      NM  (KM): KNOTS(KM/H): HPA
+06:  02/1800: 15.7S  97.4E:     035 (070):  040  (075):  990
+12:  03/0000: 16.2S  96.5E:     045 (085):  045  (085):  989
+18:  03/0600: 16.6S  95.5E:     055 (105):  050  (095):  986
+24:  03/1200: 17.0S  94.3E:     065 (120):  055  (100):  986
+36:  04/0000: 17.9S  91.8E:     080 (145):  060  (110):  983
+48:  04/1200: 18.8S  89.4E:     090 (170):  060  (110):  976
+60:  05/0000: 19.5S  86.9E:     110 (200):  060  (110):  976
+72:  05/1200: 20.0S  84.7E:     125 (225):  065  (120):  971
+96:  06/1200:             :              :            :
+120: 07/1200:             :              :            :
REMARKS:
STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE SYSTEM CENTRE AND STARTING TO WRAP AROUND 15U.

FAIR CONFIDENCE IN CENTRE POSITION BASED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
MICROWAVE IMAGERY. CONVECTIVE BANDING IS LARGELY IN W QUADRANTS, HOWEVER,
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS DEEP CONVECTION IS STARTING TO DEVELOP IN THE
SE QUADRANT. INTENSITY SET AT 40KN BASED ON EARLIER AMSR2 PASS AND DMINT
MICROWAVE INTENSITY ESTIMATE. DVORAK DT 2.5, WITH A 0.4 WRAP. MET/PAT 2.5 WITH
A D TREND. FT/CI 2.5 BASED ON MET. OBJECTIVE AIDS AT 1130 UTC ARE ADT 32 KN,
AIDT 30 KN, DPRINT 37 KN, DMINT 42 KTS (ALL 1 MIN MEAN).

THERE IS VERY GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS THAT 15U WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE WEST
SOUTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. 15U IS LIKELY
TO MOVE WEST OF 90E, LEAVING THE AUSTRALIAN AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY ON TUESDAY
EVENING.

MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT AND IS FORECAST
TO PERSIST. HOWEVER, CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES WITH SLOW DEVELOPMENT
FORECAST DUE TO HIGH TROPICAL MOISTURE AND IMPROVING UPPER DIVERGENCE. ON
MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY, INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY DUE TO AN UPPER TROUGH TO
THE WEST OF 15U PROVIDING DYNAMIC SUPPORT. ON WEDNESDAY, DRY AIR MAY INCREASE
ALLOWING THE WIND SHEAR TO STALL THE INTENSIFICATION OF 15U WHILE THE SYSTEM
MOVES TO THE WEST OF THE AUSTRALIAN REGION.

COPYRIGHT COMMONWEALTH OF AUSTRALIA
==
THE NEXT BULLETIN FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY: 02/1930 UTC.=



Time (AWST)Intensity CategoryLatitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr8 pm February 2tropical low15.5S98.0E45
+6hr2 am February 3115.7S97.4E70
+12hr8 am February 3116.2S96.5E85
+18hr2 pm February 3216.6S95.5E105
+24hr8 pm February 3217.0S94.3E120
+36hr8 am February 4217.9S91.8E145
+48hr8 pm February 4218.8S89.4E170
+60hr8 am February 5219.5S86.9E200
+72hr8 pm February 5320.0S84.7E225

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发表于 2025-2-2 20:55 | 显示全部楼层
TPXS12 PGTW 021242

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (S OF COCOS ISLANDS)

B. 02/1130Z

C. 15.63S

D. 97.60E

E. FIVE/GK2A

F. T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 71A/PBO . CNVCTN WRAPS .60 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT
OF 3.0. MET YIELDS 2.5. PT YIELDS 3.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   TIMMERMAN
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发表于 2025-2-2 21:08 | 显示全部楼层
TXXS22 KNES 021216
TCSSIO

A.  13S (NONAME)

B.  02/1130Z

C.  15.6S

D.  97.6E

E.  FIVE/HIMAWARI-9

F.  T3.0/3.0

G.  IR/EIR/SWIR/VIS

H.  REMARKS...7/10 BANDING ON A LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 3.0. MET
IS A 2.5 DUE TO A RAPID DEVELOPING TREND IN THE SYSTEM. PT AGREES WITH
DT. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    NIL


...NGUYEN

=
Every cloud has a silver lining.

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发表于 2025-2-3 03:21 | 显示全部楼层

BoM still sleeping

本帖最后由 理可的呆萌呆毛 于 2025-2-3 03:23 编辑

IDW24010
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 2:42 am WST on Monday 3 February 2025

A tropical Low, 15U, was located at 2:00 am AWST near 15.6S 97.3E, that is 385
km south of Cocos (Keeling) Islands and 1080 km west southwest of Christmas
Island and moving west at 17 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Low 15U is located south of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands and is moving
towards the west. It is forecast to develop into a tropical cyclone this
morning. During Tuesday it is likely to move further west southwest to be
beyond the Australian Area of Responsibility Tuesday evening.

No direct impacts are expected at the Cocos (Keeling) Islands.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 9:00 am AWST Monday 03 February.



IDW27700
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1904 UTC 02/02/2025
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 15U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 15.6S
Longitude: 97.3E
Location Accuracy: within 30nm (55 km)
Movement Towards: west (267 deg)
Speed of Movement: 9 knots (17 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots (75 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots (100 km/h)
Central Pressure: 991 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 100 nm (185 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 120 nm (220 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:   nm (  km)
Radius of Maximum Winds:   nm (  km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 320 nm (590 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  03/0000: 15.8S  96.5E:     040 (080):  045  (085):  991
+12:  03/0600: 16.4S  95.5E:     050 (095):  050  (095):  988
+18:  03/1200: 16.8S  94.3E:     060 (115):  050  (095):  988
+24:  03/1800: 17.2S  93.1E:     065 (120):  055  (100):  985
+36:  04/0600: 18.0S  90.6E:     075 (140):  060  (110):  981
+48:  04/1800: 18.7S  88.4E:     085 (160):  060  (110):  977
+60:  05/0600: 19.2S  85.9E:     105 (195):  065  (120):  974
+72:  05/1800:             :              :            :     
+96:  06/1800:             :              :            :     
+120: 07/1800:             :              :            :     
REMARKS:
Development remains slow for 15U due to moderate easterly shear.

Centre position based on enhanced infrared (EIR) satellite imagery and recent
movement. Dvorak analysis yields a FT 2.5 based on a 24 hour D- trend and PAT
adjustment. CI = 2.5. DT 2.5 based on 0.5 wrap with low confidence. Intensity
set at 40kn based on SATCON. Objective aids at 1730 UTC are ADT 41 kn, AiDT 33
kn, DPRINT 43 kn, SATCON 46 kts (all 1 min mean).  

There is very good model consensus in the forecast track. 15U will continue to
track to the west southwest under the influence of a mid-level anticyclone to
the south, likely well beyond 90E over the next few days. The intensity
forecast is less certain.

Moderate vertical wind shear continues to inhibit development and is forecast
to persist as 15U tracks along the northern side of the mid-level anticyclone.
Slow intensification is forecast to continue over the next few days, however,
due to high tropical moisture and dynamical support from an upper low to the
southwest. This development may continue throughout the track, although
tropical moisture connection may be cut off from Wednesday.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 03/0130 UTC.



Details:
Time (AWST)Intensity CategoryLatitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr2 am February 3tropical low15.6S97.3E55
+6hr8 am February 3115.8S96.5E80
+12hr2 pm February 3216.4S95.5E95
+18hr8 pm February 3216.8S94.3E115
+24hr2 am February 4217.2S93.1E120
+36hr2 pm February 4218.0S90.6E140
+48hr2 am February 5218.7S88.4E160
+60hr2 pm February 5319.2S85.9E195
+72hr2 am February 6tropical lowXXXXXXXXX


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发表于 2025-2-3 04:40 | 显示全部楼层
WTXS32 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 003   
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   021800Z --- NEAR 15.6S 97.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 97.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z --- 16.4S 95.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z --- 17.3S 92.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z --- 18.1S 90.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z --- 18.8S 88.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 19.8S 84.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 20.6S 79.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 21.8S 74.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 96.6E.
02FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
204 NM SOUTH OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 021800Z IS 985 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
030900Z AND 032100Z.REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S
(TALIAH) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN





  1. WDXS32 PGTW 022100
  2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
  3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING
  4. NR 003//
  5. RMKS/
  6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
  7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

  8. SUMMARY:
  9.    INITIAL POSITION: 15.6S 97.1E
  10.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
  11.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 204 NM SOUTH OF THE COCOS ISLANDS
  12.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 09 KTS
  13.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET

  14. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
  15. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A DEVELOPING
  16. SYSTEM WITH THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST SHEARED WESTWARD BUT
  17. OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS
  18. EXTRAPOLATED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FROM THE MICROWAVE LLC FEATURE
  19. IN THE 021453Z AMSU-B IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45KTS, HELD
  20. HIGHER THAN AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES, IS ALSO PLACED
  21. WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
  22. WITH WARM SST AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY
  23. MODERATE VWS.

  24. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA

  25. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SSE.

  26. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
  27.    PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
  28.    KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
  29.    DEMS: T2.5 - 35 KTS
  30.    CIMSS SATCON: 46 KTS AT 021730Z
  31.    CIMSS ADT: 41 KTS AT 021730Z

  32. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
  33.    VWS: 15-20 KTS
  34.    SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
  35.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

  36. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
  37.    INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
  38.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
  39.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

  40. 3. FORECAST REASONING.

  41. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
  42. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

  43. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 13S WILL TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE
  44. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN UNDER THE STEERING STR. THE FAVORABLE
  45. ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO 80 KTS BY TAU 120.

  46. MODEL DISCUSSION: AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
  47. AGREEMENT WITH A GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO 178NM BY TAU 72 THEN TO
  48. 304NM BY TAU 120. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH
  49. A DEVELOPING SYSTEM, THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
  50. TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS.

  51. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
  52.    TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
  53.    TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
  54.    INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
  55.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
  56. NNNN
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发表于 2025-2-3 08:25 | 显示全部楼层

BoM命名Vince

KSXK49 ADRM 030019
CREX++  
T000101 A007 B01033 B01025 B01027 D01011 D01012
D01023 B02041 B19001 B19007 B19005 B19006 B19008
B08005 B10004 B08005 B10004 B19007 B08005 B08021 B04075 B11040 B19007
R05004 B05021 B05021 R02002 B19003 B19009++
065 15U VINCE      2025 02 03 00 00
-1620 09630 00 02 //// 247 00458
7 01 09900 02 10020 0519 03 02 10 0206 0046
36000 09000 025 //// 015 0111
09000 18000 025 //// 015 0185
18000 27000 025 //// 015 0185
27000 36000 025 //// 015 0111++
7777
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发表于 2025-2-3 08:45 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2025-2-3 09:10 编辑

IDW24010
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 8:44 am WST on Monday 3 February 2025

Tropical Cyclone Vince (Category 1) was located at 8:00 am AWST near 16.2S
96.3E, that is 450 km south of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands and moving west
southwest at 17 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Vince is located well south of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands. It
is forecast to continue moving towards the west southwest while strengthening
further. Tropical Cyclone Vince is expected to move out of the Australian
region on Tuesday.

No direct impacts are expected at the Cocos (Keeling) Islands.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 3:00 pm AWST Monday 03 February.



AXAU02 APRF 030058
IDW27700
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
ISSUED BY AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
AT: 0058 UTC 03/02/2025
NAME: TROPICAL CYCLONE VINCE
IDENTIFIER: 15U
DATA AT: 0000 UTC
LATITUDE: 16.2S
LONGITUDE: 96.3E
LOCATION ACCURACY: WITHIN 20NM (35 KM)
MOVEMENT TOWARDS: WEST SOUTHWEST (247 DEG)
SPEED OF MOVEMENT: 9 KNOTS (17 KM/H)
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE WIND: 40 KNOTS (75 KM/H)
MAXIMUM 3-SECOND WIND GUST: 55 KNOTS (100 KM/H)
CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS NE QUADRANT: 60 NM (110 KM)
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS SE QUADRANT: 100 NM (185 KM)
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS SW QUADRANT: 100 NM (185 KM)
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS NW QUADRANT: 60 NM (110 KM)
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS NE QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS SE QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS SW QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS NW QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 64-KNOT WINDS:   NM (  KM)
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS: 25 NM (45 KM)
DVORAK INTENSITY CODE: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS  STT:D0.5/06HRS
PRESSURE OF OUTERMOST ISOBAR: 1002 HPA
RADIUS OF OUTERMOST CLOSED ISOBAR: 280 NM (520 KM)
FORECAST DATA
DATE/TIME    : LOCATION    : LOC. ACCURACY: MAX WIND   : CENTRAL PRESSURE
(UTC)        : DEGREES     :      NM  (KM): KNOTS(KM/H): HPA
+06:  03/0600: 16.4S  95.5E:     030 (060):  050  (095):  986
+12:  03/1200: 16.8S  94.4E:     040 (075):  050  (095):  986
+18:  03/1800: 17.2S  93.2E:     050 (090):  055  (100):  983
+24:  04/0000: 17.6S  91.8E:     055 (100):  060  (110):  980
+36:  04/1200: 18.4S  89.5E:     070 (130):  060  (110):  975
+48:  05/0000: 19.0S  87.2E:     085 (160):  065  (120):  971
+60:  05/1200: 19.5S  85.0E:     100 (190):  065  (120):  971
+72:  06/0000:             :              :            :
+96:  07/0000:             :              :            :
+120: 08/0000:             :              :            :
REMARKS:
TROPICAL CYCLONE VINCE HAS BEEN NAMED BASED ON SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS AND
OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.

THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE HAS IMPROVED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS,
DEVELOPING A CLASSIC CURVED BAND PATTERN AND SUGGESTING THE NEGATIVE INFLUENCE
OF EASTERLY SHEAR ON DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS DECREASING.

CENTRE POSITION IS BASED ON ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
RECENT MOVEMENT. DVORAK ANALYSIS YIELDS A CURVED BAND AVERAGING 0.75 WRAP OVER
THE PAST THREE HOURS. DT IS 3.0. MET IS 3.0 BASED ON A 24 HOUR D TREND, WITH NO
PAT ADJUSTMENT. FT = CI = 3.0. INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40KN BASED ON SATCON, BUT
GALES ARE NOW ESTIMATED IN ALL QUADRANTS. OBJECTIVE AIDS AT 2340 UTC ARE ADT 49
KN, AIDT 36 KN, DPRINT 56 KN, SATCON 43 KTS (ALL 1 MIN MEAN).

CIMSS ANALYSIS SUGGESTS SIMILAR DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OVER THE SYSTEM (15-20
KN), HOWEVER THE SHEAR GRADIENT ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM HAS LOOSENED
SOMEWHAT. THE UPPER AMVS CONTINUE TO DEPICT E/NE FLOW OVER THE TOP OF THE
SYSTEM, WITH A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE SW.
THIS ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BROADLY SIMILAR OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS
AS THE UPPER TROUGH RELAXES AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. SOME DRIER AIR MAY WRAP AROUND
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM IN THE MEDIUM TERM, BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO BE A WEAKENING INFLUENCE. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS
THEREFORE FORECAST AT ROUGHLY THE STANDARD RATE, WHICH WOULD SEE VINCE REACH
CATEGORY 3 ON WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS VERY GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE FORECAST TRACK IN THE MEDIUM TERM,
WITH A ROBUST STEERING PATTERN NORTH OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IN PLACE UNTIL
MID-WEEK. VINCE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST AND LIKELY MOVE
OUTSIDE THE AUSTRALIAN REGION ON TUESDAY.

COPYRIGHT COMMONWEALTH OF AUSTRALIA
==
THE NEXT BULLETIN FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY: 03/0730 UTC.=



Time (AWST)Intensity CategoryLatitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr8 am February 3116.2S96.3E35
+6hr2 pm February 3216.4S95.5E60
+12hr8 pm February 3216.8S94.4E75
+18hr2 am February 4217.2S93.2E90
+24hr8 am February 4217.6S91.8E100
+36hr8 pm February 4218.4S89.5E130
+48hr8 am February 5319.0S87.2E160
+60hr8 pm February 5319.5S85.0E190
+72hr8 am February 6tropical lowXXXXXXXXX

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