|
本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2025-2-3 08:00 编辑
WTXS32 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 002
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 15.7S 98.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 98.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 16.0S 97.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 16.7S 95.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 17.6S 92.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 18.5S 90.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 20.0S 85.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 20.6S 81.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 21.3S 77.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 98.5E.
02FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
240 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 020600Z IS 990 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
022100Z AND 030900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELEVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
WTXS32 PGTW 020900 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 002A CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 002A CORRECTED
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 15.7S 98.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 98.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 16.0S 97.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 16.7S 95.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 17.6S 92.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 18.5S 90.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 20.0S 85.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 20.6S 81.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 21.3S 77.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 98.5E.
02FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
240 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 020600Z IS 990 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
022100Z AND 030900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CHANGE FROM A SIX-HOURLY WARNING TO A
12 HOURLY WARNING FOR TC 14S.//
NNNN
- WDXS32 PGTW 020900
- MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
- SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING
- NR 002//
- RMKS/
- 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
- 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
- SUMMARY:
- INITIAL POSITION: 15.7S 98.9E
- INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
- GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 240 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS
- ISLANDS
- MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 13 KTS
- SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET
- SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
- ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
- CYCLONE 13S WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION FORMING OVER THE CENTER AND
- A STRONG BANDING FEATURE EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH. ENVIRONMENTAL
- ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 13S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
- CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10 KTS)
- VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (27-28 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
- THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
- LOW-LEVEL CLOUD TRACING IN THE ANIMATED MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
- OF 40 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY
- DVORAK AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.
- INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE FROM EARLIER SCATTEROMETER
- DATA
- CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
- RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
- AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
- PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
- KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
- DEMS: T2.5 - 35 KTS
- APRF: T2.0 - 30 KTS
- CIMSS SATCON: 46 KTS AT 020600Z
- CIMSS ADT: 33 KTS AT 020600Z
- CIMSS AIDT: 30 KTS AT 020600Z
- CIMSS DPRINT:36 KTS AT 020600Z
- FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
- VWS: 5-10 KTS
- SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
- OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
- ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
- INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
- INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
- INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
- 3. FORECAST REASONING.
- SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
- THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
- FORECAST DISCUSSION: 13S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD, ALONG
- THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
- PERIOD. REGARDING INTENSITY, 13S IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY
- TO AROUND 70 KTS AT TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, FURTHER INTENSIFICATION
- WILL BE HALTED AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BECOME BORDERLINE.
- HOWEVER, OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS REMAIN FAVORABLE. AS A RESULT,
- IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY AFTER TAU 72 THROUGH TAU 120.
- MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
- REGARDING THE TRACK OF 13S WITH A 205 NM CROSS TRACK SPREAD AT TAU
- 72 WHICH OPENS UP TO 330 NM AT TAU 120. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
- OUTLIERS, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS
- THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT
- REGARDING INTENSITY THOUGH. COAMPS-TC IS A MAJOR OUTLIER, SUGGESTING
- MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION AND WEAKENING AFTER TAU 48. THE REMAINDER
- OF GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT, AND THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST
- FOLLOWS CLOSELY TO THE MAIN GROUPING WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
- TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
- TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
- INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
- INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
- NNNN
复制代码 |
本帖子中包含更多资源
您需要 登录 才可以下载或查看,没有账号?立即注册
×
|