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[值得关注] 科科斯群岛西南强热带气旋第14号“考特尼”(27U/27S.Courtney) - 西行发展，风眼开出，快速爆发超预期 - MFR:110KT JTWC:130KT

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发表于 2025-3-24 20:51 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2025-3-24 21:05 编辑

IDW24000
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 8:50 pm WST on Monday 24 March 2025

A Tropical Low was located at 8:00 pm AWST near 16.3S 111.4E,that is 690 km
north northwest of Exmouth and 900 km southeast of Christmas Island and moving
west southwest at 15 kilometres per hour.

Tropical low 27U is located well to the northwest of the Pilbara coast and is
expected to continue to move westwards away from the Australian mainland. 27U
is only slowly developing and it is forecast to intensify into a tropical
cyclone late Wednesday or early Thursday while continuing to move westwards.

It will not impact the Western Australian coast, the Cocos (Keeling) Islands or
Christmas Island.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 3:00 am AWST Tuesday 25 March.


AXAU01 APRF 241301
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
ISSUED BY AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
AT: 1301 UTC 24/03/2025
NAME: TROPICAL LOW
IDENTIFIER: 27U
DATA AT: 1200 UTC
LATITUDE: 16.3S
LONGITUDE: 111.4E
LOCATION ACCURACY: WITHIN 25NM (45 KM)
MOVEMENT TOWARDS: WEST SOUTHWEST (249 DEG)
SPEED OF MOVEMENT: 8 KNOTS (15 KM/H)
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE WIND: 35 KNOTS (65 KM/H)
MAXIMUM 3-SECOND WIND GUST: 50 KNOTS (95 KM/H)
CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS NE QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS SE QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS SW QUADRANT: 80 NM (150 KM)
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS NW QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS NE QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS SE QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS SW QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS NW QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 64-KNOT WINDS:   NM (  KM)
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS:   NM (  KM)
DVORAK INTENSITY CODE: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/6HRS
PRESSURE OF OUTERMOST ISOBAR: 1004 HPA
RADIUS OF OUTERMOST CLOSED ISOBAR: 160 NM (295 KM)
FORECAST DATA
DATE/TIME    : LOCATION    : LOC. ACCURACY: MAX WIND   : CENTRAL PRESSURE
(UTC)        : DEGREES     :      NM  (KM): KNOTS(KM/H): HPA
+06:  24/1800: 16.3S 111.4E:     050 (095):  035  (065):  996
+12:  25/0000: 16.2S 110.7E:     060 (110):  040  (075):  995
+18:  25/0600: 16.4S 110.1E:     070 (130):  040  (075):  994
+24:  25/1200: 16.5S 109.6E:     080 (145):  040  (075):  994
+36:  26/0000: 17.0S 108.0E:     095 (175):  040  (075):  994
+48:  26/1200: 17.3S 106.0E:     120 (220):  040  (075):  994
+60:  27/0000: 17.2S 103.7E:     130 (240):  040  (075):  994
+72:  27/1200: 17.1S 101.7E:     150 (275):  045  (085):  991
+96:  28/1200: 17.3S  97.0E:     185 (345):  065  (120):  978
+120: 29/1200: 18.6S  92.5E:     215 (395):  080  (150):  962
REMARKS:
TROPICAL LOW 27U LIES WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF WESTERN AUSTRALIA AND IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY DEVELOP AS IT TRACKS WESTWARDS OVER THE INDIAN OCEAN.

THE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED USING ANIMATED VISIBLE AND EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN
EVENING MICROWAVE PASS. DURING THE AFTERNOON THE LLCC WAS PARTIALLY VISIBLE BUT
THIS HAS SINCE BEEN OBSCURED BY CIRRUS BLOWOFF. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE IN THE
LOCATION.

DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON BOTH A SHEAR AND CURVED BAND PATTERN YIELDING A
3-HOURLY AVERAGE DT OF 2.0 FOR CURVED BAND AND 2.5 FOR SHEAR. THE 24 TREND IS D
WHICH GIVES MET OF 2.0, NO ADJ SO PAT IS ALSO 2.0, FT BIASED TO PAT. FT/CI IS
2.0. THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO OBJECTIVE AIDS OTHER THAN DPRINT WHICH WAS 27 KNOTS
AT 0600 UTC (1 MIN WIND). ANALYSIS INTENSITY SET AT 35 KNOTS IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT BIASED TO EARLIER ASCAT PASSES.

IN GENERAL THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVOURABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM SSTS AND
DEEP MOISTURE SUPPLIED BY THE ACTIVE MONSOON. HOWEVER IT IS APPARENT THAT 27U
IS CURRENTLY AFFECTED BY STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF ABOUT 20 KNOTS, MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATE THIS MAY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 1 TO 3 DAYS AND AS A RESULT THE
DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY BE SLOWED. DURING WEDNESDAY AN UPPER
TROUGH PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF 27U AND THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE ENVIRONMENT MAY
BE MORE FAVOURABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT FROM THIS POINT ONWARDS. THE MAJORITY OF
GUIDANCE INDICATE 27U COULD DEVELOP INTO A CATEGORY 3 SYSTEM TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK.

THE ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING IS CONSISTENT IN MODELS, WITH GENERALLY WESTWARDS
MOTION FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK DUE TO A RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. ALTHOUGH A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH DOES MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN, IT IS NOT EXPECTED
TO AMPLIFY AND SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THE STEERING.  AS 27U LEAVES THE AUSTRALIAN
REGION LATER ON THE WEEKEND MOTION BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST AS THE RIDGE RETREATS
AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN.



COPYRIGHT COMMONWEALTH OF AUSTRALIA
==
THE NEXT BULLETIN FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY: 24/1930 UTC.=



Time (AWST)Intensity CategoryLatitude
(decimal deg.)		Longitude
(decimal deg.)		Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr8 pm March 24tropical low16.3S111.4E45
+6hr2 am March 25tropical low16.3S111.4E95
+12hr8 am March 25tropical low16.2S110.7E110
+18hr2 pm March 25tropical low16.4S110.1E130
+24hr8 pm March 25tropical low16.5S109.6E145
+36hr8 am March 26tropical low17.0S108.0E175
+48hr8 pm March 26tropical low17.3S106.0E220
+60hr8 am March 27117.2S103.7E240
+72hr8 pm March 27117.1S101.7E275

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发表于 2025-3-24 22:00 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 yhh 于 2025-3-25 10:25 编辑




WTXS31 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/232151ZMAR2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   241200Z --- NEAR 16.6S 111.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 111.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   250000Z --- 17.0S 109.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   251200Z --- 17.2S 108.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   260000Z --- 17.5S 106.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z --- 17.6S 104.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z --- 17.5S 100.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z --- 17.6S 96.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z --- 18.8S 91.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 110.6E.
24MAR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVEN), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 384 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS
TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 241200Z IS 995 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 232200).//
NNNN
  1. WDXS31 PGTW 241500
  2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
  3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVEN)
  4. WARNING NR 001//
  5. RMKS/
  6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
  7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

  9. SUMMARY:
  10.    INITIAL POSITION: 16.6S 111.0E
  11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
  12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 384 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH,
  13. AUSTRALIA
  14.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KTS
  15.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET

  17. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
  18. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) AND SHORTWAVE INFRARED (SWIR)
  19. SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC SYSTEM, WITH A
  20. WEDGE-SHAPED AREA OF CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST OF THE LOW
  21. LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 241105 WSF-M 37GHZ MICROWAVE
  22. IMAGE REVEALED A SMALL LLCC WITH SHALLOW BANDING FEATURES EXPOSED
  23. TO THE EAST, AND DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING TO WRAP UP THE WESTERN
  24. PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. SUBSEQUENT ANIMATED PROXY VISIBLE
  25. IMAGERY INDICATES THIS CONVECTION HAS FAILED TO PERSIST AND THE
  26. LLCC HAS ONCE AGAIN BECOME EXPOSED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
  27. ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SWIR AND PROXY VISIBLE
  28. IMAGERY AND EXTRAPOLATION OF THE CENTER SEEN IN THE WSF-M MICROWAVE
  29. IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
  30. EARLIER ASCAT AND OSCAT DATA INDICATED 35 KNOT WINDS WERE PRESENT
  31. IN POCKETS UNDER THE CONVECTION, ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
  32. CIRCULATION. AS THE CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED SINCE THAT TIME, IT IS
  33. LIKELY THE WIND FIELD REMAINS IN A SIMILAR ORIENTATION. THE
  34. ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE, WITH WARM SSTS, PLENTY OF
  35. MOISTURE AND A STRENGTHENING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. HOWEVER,
  36. EASTERLY SHEAR REMAINS MODERATE, WHICH WILL SERVE TO HINDER RAPID
  37. DEVELOPMENT.

  39. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA

  41. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
  42. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER SOUTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA.

  44. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
  45.    PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
  46.    KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
  47.    APRF: T2.0 - 30 KTS
  48.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 28 KTS AT 241200Z

  50. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
  51.    VWS: 15-20 KTS
  52.    SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
  53.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
  54.    OTHER FACTORS: WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND STRONG PRESSURE FROM
  55. THE EAST DUE TO EASTERLY SHEAR.

  57. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
  58.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
  59.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
  60.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

  62. 3. FORECAST REASONING.

  64. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
  65. MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.

  67. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 27S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK
  68. WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS ALONG THE NORTHERN
  69. PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. THE
  70. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AFTER TAU 24 AS A PASSING TROUGH
  71. FAR TO THE SOUTH WILL WEAKEN THE STEERING GRADIENT. THE TRACK
  72. FLATTENS OUT TO A DUE WEST DIRECTION AND THE SYSTEM PICKS UP SPEED
  73. AFTER TAU 48, AS A NEW STR MOVES IN BEHIND THE TROUGH AND THE
  74. STRENGTHENS THE STEERING GRADIENT ONCE AGAIN. BY THE END OF THE
  75. FORECAST PERIOD, THE RIDGE SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TC 27S, WHICH
  76. WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL TURN POLEWARD BY TAU 120. IN TERMS OF
  77. INTENSITY, DEVELOPMENT IS GOING TO BE SLOW FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF
  78. DAYS DUE TO THE HIGHLY TILTED NATURE OF THE VORTEX DUE TO THE
  79. PERSISTENT MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR. THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL REMAIN
  80. ENSCONCED IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM, UNDER THE CONVECTIVE
  81. BURSTS. THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER
  82. TAU 48, AS MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A REDUCTION IN THE
  83. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO SYMMETRIZE AND
  84. THE VORTEX TO BECOME VERTICALLY ALIGNED. PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS
  85. IS EXPECTED TO BE REACHED AROUND TAU 96. A GENERALIZED WEAKENING IS
  86. LIKELY TO BEGIN AFTER TAU 96 AS DRY AIR INTRUSION AND COOLING SSTS
  87. WILL OFFSET THE RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR AND DECENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW.

  89. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
  90. GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH A TIGHT ENVELOPE
  91. OF JUST 50NM AT TAU 72 AND 150NM AT TAU 120. THE NAVGEM IS THE ONLY
  92. OUTLIER, WHICH IS SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER THAN EVERY OTHER MODEL AND
  93. DRIVES THE SYSTEM INTO THE RIDGE AFTER TAU 72, WHICH IS HIGHLY
  94. UNLIKELY. HENCE, THE NAVGEM IS DISCOUNTED FROM THE CONSENSUS. THE
  95. JTWC FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE
  96. PACKAGE AND LIES CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MEAN, THE ECMWF
  97. DETERMINISTIC AND EC-AIFS TRACKERS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY
  98. GUIDANCE IS MIXED, WITH THE COAMPS-TC MARKING THE LOWER END OF THE
  99. ENVELOPE, PEAKING THE SYSTEM AT JUST 60 KNOTS, WHILE THE HAFS-A
  100. PEAKS THE SYSTEM AT NEAR 95 KNOTS AND THE HWRF AT AN UNREALISTIC
  101. 120 KNOTS. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MEAN, BUT
  102. CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE.

  104. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
  105.    TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
  106.    TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
  107.    INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
  108.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
  109. NNNN
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发表于 2025-3-25 04:25 | 显示全部楼层
IDW24000
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 2:50 am WST on Tuesday 25 March 2025

A Tropical Low was located at 2:00 am AWST near 16.5S 110.7E,that is 700 km
north northwest of Exmouth and 860 km southeast of Christmas Island and moving
west southwest at 14 kilometres per hour.

Tropical low 27U is located well to the northwest of the Pilbara coast and is
expected to continue to move westwards away from the Australian mainland. 27U
is only slowly developing and it is forecast to intensify into a tropical
cyclone late Wednesday or early Thursday while continuing to move westwards.

It will not impact the Western Australian coast, the Cocos (Keeling) Islands or
Christmas Island.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 9:00 am AWST Tuesday 25 March.


AXAU01 APRF 241904
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
ISSUED BY AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
AT: 1904 UTC 24/03/2025
NAME: TROPICAL LOW
IDENTIFIER: 27U
DATA AT: 1800 UTC
LATITUDE: 16.5S
LONGITUDE: 110.7E
LOCATION ACCURACY: WITHIN 30NM (55 KM)
MOVEMENT TOWARDS: WEST SOUTHWEST (251 DEG)
SPEED OF MOVEMENT: 8 KNOTS (14 KM/H)
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE WIND: 40 KNOTS (75 KM/H)
MAXIMUM 3-SECOND WIND GUST: 55 KNOTS (100 KM/H)
CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS NE QUADRANT: 20 NM (35 KM)
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS SE QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS SW QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS NW QUADRANT: 40 NM (75 KM)
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS NE QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS SE QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS SW QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS NW QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 64-KNOT WINDS:   NM (  KM)
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS:   NM (  KM)
DVORAK INTENSITY CODE: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
PRESSURE OF OUTERMOST ISOBAR: 1004 HPA
RADIUS OF OUTERMOST CLOSED ISOBAR: 170 NM (315 KM)
FORECAST DATA
DATE/TIME    : LOCATION    : LOC. ACCURACY: MAX WIND   : CENTRAL PRESSURE
(UTC)        : DEGREES     :      NM  (KM): KNOTS(KM/H): HPA
+06:  25/0000: 16.5S 110.2E:     040 (080):  045  (085):  990
+12:  25/0600: 16.6S 109.7E:     050 (090):  040  (075):  993
+18:  25/1200: 16.7S 109.1E:     060 (110):  040  (075):  993
+24:  25/1800: 16.9S 108.4E:     065 (120):  040  (075):  994
+36:  26/0600: 17.3S 106.6E:     085 (155):  040  (075):  994
+48:  26/1800: 17.2S 104.6E:     105 (190):  045  (085):  991
+60:  27/0600: 17.1S 102.5E:     120 (220):  045  (085):  992
+72:  27/1800: 16.8S 100.4E:     120 (225):  045  (085):  991
+96:  28/1800: 17.0S  95.7E:     165 (300):  060  (110):  982
+120: 29/1800: 18.3S  91.6E:     205 (380):  070  (130):  971
REMARKS:
TROPICAL LOW 27U LIES WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF WESTERN AUSTRALIA AND IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY DEVELOP AS IT TRACKS WESTWARDS OVER THE INDIAN OCEAN.

THE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED USING ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN ASCAT-B PASS AT
1421UTC. THE LOW LEVEL CENTRE CONTINUES TO BE COVERED BY CIRRUS BLOW OFF.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE IN THE LOCATION.

DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON BOTH A SHEAR PATTERN YIELDING A 3-HOURLY AVERAGE DT OF
2.5, HOWEVER THERE IS NO TIGHT GRADIENT, SO THIS IS UNRELIABLE. THE 24 TREND IS
D- WHICH GIVES MET OF 2.0, NO ADJ SO PAT IS ALSO 2.0, FT BIASED TO PAT. FT/CI
IS 2.0. OBJECTIVE AIDS (ALL 1 MIN MEAN) AT 1730UTC ARE ADT 35 KN, AIDT 34 KN,
DPRINT 36 KN, SATCON 41 KN (1630 UTC). ANALYSIS INTENSITY SET AT 40 KNOTS IN
THE NORTHERN QUADRANTS BASED ON ASCAT PASS AT 1421 UTC.

IN GENERAL THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVOURABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM SSTS AND
DEEP MOISTURE SUPPLIED BY THE ACTIVE MONSOON. HOWEVER IT IS APPARENT THAT 27U
IS CURRENTLY AFFECTED BY STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF ABOUT 20 KNOTS, MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATE THIS MAY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 1 TO 3 DAYS AND AS A RESULT THE
DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY BE SLOWED. DURING WEDNESDAY AN UPPER
TROUGH PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF 27U AND THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE ENVIRONMENT MAY
BE MORE FAVOURABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT FROM THIS POINT ONWARDS.

THE MAJORITY OF 00 UTC GUIDANCE INDICATE 27U COULD DEVELOP INTO A CATEGORY 3
SYSTEM TOWARDS THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. HOWEVER OF THE LATEST 12 UTC GUIDANCE
AVAILABLE, MOST HAVE THE SYSTEM TAKING A TRACK SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH AND
REMAINING IN A HIGHER SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THIS STAGNATES DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE WEEK AND INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE COULD FLUCTUATE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.

THE ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING IS CONSISTENT IN MODELS, WITH GENERALLY WESTWARDS
MOTION FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK DUE TO A RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. ALTHOUGH A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH DOES MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN, IT IS NOT EXPECTED
TO AMPLIFY AND SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THE STEERING.  AS 27U LEAVES THE AUSTRALIAN
REGION LATER ON THE WEEKEND MOTION BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST AS THE RIDGE RETREATS
AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN.



COPYRIGHT COMMONWEALTH OF AUSTRALIA
==
THE NEXT BULLETIN FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY: 25/0130 UTC.=



Time (AWST)Intensity CategoryLatitude
(decimal deg.)		Longitude
(decimal deg.)		Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr2 am March 25tropical low16.5S110.7E55
+6hr8 am March 25tropical low16.5S110.2E80
+12hr2 pm March 25tropical low16.6S109.7E90
+18hr8 pm March 25tropical low16.7S109.1E110
+24hr2 am March 26tropical low16.9S108.4E120
+36hr2 pm March 26tropical low17.3S106.6E155
+48hr2 am March 27117.2S104.6E190
+60hr2 pm March 27117.1S102.5E220
+72hr2 am March 28116.8S100.4E225

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顶级超台

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发表于 2025-3-25 04:25 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2025-3-25 06:00 编辑

WTXS31 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 002   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   241800Z --- NEAR 16.6S 110.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 110.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 16.8S 109.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 17.0S 107.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 17.2S 105.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z --- 17.1S 103.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z --- 16.8S 99.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z --- 17.2S 95.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   291800Z --- 18.6S 90.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 16.6S 110.1E.
24MAR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVEN), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 398 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 241800Z IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
250300Z, 250900Z, 251500Z AND 252100Z.
//
NNNN





  1. WDXS31 PGTW 242100
  2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
  3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVEN)
  4. WARNING NR 002//
  5. RMKS/
  6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
  7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

  9. SUMMARY:
  10.    INITIAL POSITION: 16.6S 110.5E
  11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
  12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 398 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH,
  13. AUSTRALIA
  14.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 06 KTS
  15.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET

  17. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
  18. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A NEARLY
  19. FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OF TROPICAL
  20. CYCLONE (TC) 27S. STRONG (20-25 KTS) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
  21. SHEAR (VWS) IS CAUSING THE CONVECTION TO BE DISPLACED SOUTHWESTWARD,
  22. WHILE BEING ENHANCED BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, IDENTIFIABLE THROUGH
  23. PRONOUNCED TRANSVERSE BANDING. ADDITIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
  24. REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH WARM (29-30 C) SEA
  25. SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), DEEP MOISTURE CONTENT, STEADILY IMPROVING
  26. POLEWARD OUTFLOW, OFFSET BY PERSISTENT VWS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
  27. PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXTRAPOLATION FROM A
  28. 241424Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS AND THE ANIMATED SHORTWAVE IR IMAGERY.
  29. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
  30. BASED ON AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS, CONSISTENT WITH THE AGENCY
  31. DVORAK FIXES OF T2.0-2.5 AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.

  33. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 241424Z METOP-B ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA

  35. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER
  36. SOUTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA

  38. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
  39.    PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
  40.    KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
  41.    APRF: T2.0 - 30 KTS
  42.    CIMSS SATCON: 41 KTS AT 241630Z
  43.    CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 241730Z
  44.    CIMSS AIDT: 34 KTS AT 241730Z
  45.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 34 KTS AT 241830Z

  47. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
  48.    VWS: 20-25 KTS
  49.    SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
  50.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

  52. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
  53.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
  54.    INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
  55.    INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

  57. 3. FORECAST REASONING.

  59. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
  60. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

  62. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 27S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
  63. WESTWARD, WITH SOME SLIGHT OSCILLATION, ASSOCIATED WITH
  64. THE CHANGES IN THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS,
  65. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSIT ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STR
  66. OVER SOUTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA. AFTER THAT, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
  67. EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, WEAKENING THE
  68. STEERING. BY TAU 60, ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH
  69. OF THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSIT EASTWARD, KEEPING TC 27S TO THE NORTH
  70. OF IT, AND EVENTUALLY OPENING A POLEWARD PATH BETWEEN TAUS 96 AND
  71. 120. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, MOST MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD
  72. AGREEMENT INDICATING SLOW INTENSIFICATION. PERSISTENT AND STRONG
  73. VWS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WILL HINDER THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT,
  74. ALLOWING TC 27S TO ONLY REACH 45-50 KT MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS. AFTER
  75. THAT, THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE, WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED
  76. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PASS TO THE SOUTH OF TC 27S,
  77. IMPROVING THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. COMPARED WITH THE PREVIOUS
  78. FORECAST HOWEVER, THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES A SLIGHTLY LOWER
  79. INTENSITY PEAK WITH 60-65 KTS TOWARDS THE END OF THE CURRENT FORECAST
  80. PERIOD.

  82. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY
  83. FAIR AGREEMENT, WITH NEARLY ALL MODELS PREDICTING SIMILAR PATH. THE
  84. EXCEPTION REMAINS NAVGEM, WHICH INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN
  85. THE TRANSLATION SPEED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, WHICH ALSO IMPACTS
  86. THE PREDICTED TRACK AFTER TAU 96, AS A RESULT OF TIMELINE
  87. DIFFERENCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE STEERING PATTERN SHIFT. ALL OTHER
  88. MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, AS WITNESSED BY A 75 NM CROSS-TRACK
  89. SPREAD AT BOTH TAU 72 AND 120, ALLOWING THE JTWC TRACK TO BE
  90. ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. MOST RECENT INTENSITY GUIDANCE
  91. INDICATES A MORE CONSERVATIVE PEAK INTENSITY, CURRENTLY ASSESSED AT
  92. 60-65 KTS BETWEEN TAUS 96 AND 120. THE INTENSITY SPREAD AT TAU 48 IS
  93. CURRENTLY 20 KTS, WITH HAFS AND COAMPS-TC ON THE LOWER END, AND
  94. STATISTICAL DYNAMICAL MODEL AS WELL AS HWRF ON THE HIGHER END. AFTER
  95. THE INITIAL TWO DAYS HOWEVER, INTENSITY GUIDANCE SPREAD INCREASES TO
  96. 35 KTS, WITH COAMPS-TC REMAINING THE MOST CONSERVATIVE AT 45 KTS, AND
  97. HWRF REACHING AS HIGH AS 75 KTS. JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ASSESSED
  98. CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS GUIDANCE WITH MEDIUM INITIAL
  99. CONFIDENCE, FOLLOWED BY LOW CONFIDENCE OF THE LONG-TERM GUIDANCE.

  101. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
  102.    TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
  103.    TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
  104.    INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
  105.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
  106. NNNN
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6548

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强台风

Super Typhoon

积分
6548
发表于 2025-3-25 09:15 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2025-3-25 09:20 编辑

IDW24000
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 8:45 am WST on Tuesday 25 March 2025

A Tropical Low was located at 8:00 am AWST near 16.7S 110.1E,that is 720 km
northwest of Exmouth and 840 km southeast of Christmas Island and moving west
southwest at 12 kilometres per hour.

Tropical low 27U is located well to the northwest of the Pilbara coast and is
expected to continue to move westwards, further away from the Australian
mainland. 27U is only slowly developing and it is forecast to have gales extend
around the system and become a tropical cyclone early Thursday while continuing
to move westwards.

It will not impact the Western Australian coast, the Cocos (Keeling) Islands or
Christmas Island.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 3:00 pm AWST Tuesday 25 March.
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0118 UTC 25/03/2025
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 27U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 16.7S
Longitude: 110.1E
Location Accuracy: within 25nm (45 km)
Movement Towards: west southwest (252 deg)
Speed of Movement: 7 knots (12 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots (75 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots (100 km/h)
Central Pressure: 993 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm (165 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:   nm (  km)
Radius of Maximum Winds:   nm (  km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS STT:D0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm (335 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  25/0600: 16.5S 109.6E:     035 (070):  040  (075):  993
+12:  25/1200: 16.7S 108.9E:     050 (090):  040  (075):  994
+18:  25/1800: 16.8S 108.1E:     060 (115):  040  (075):  994
+24:  26/0000: 16.9S 107.1E:     075 (135):  040  (075):  994
+36:  26/1200: 16.9S 105.3E:     090 (165):  040  (075):  994
+48:  27/0000: 16.5S 103.4E:     105 (190):  045  (085):  991
+60:  27/1200: 16.3S 101.6E:     110 (205):  045  (085):  991
+72:  28/0000: 16.0S  99.3E:     120 (225):  045  (085):  992
+96:  29/0000: 16.5S  95.0E:     155 (290):  055  (100):  985
+120: 30/0000: 17.8S  91.3E:     205 (380):  060  (110):  981
REMARKS:
Tropical Low 27U lies well to the northwest of Western Australia and is
forecast to slowly develop as it tracks westwards over the Indian Ocean.  

The system was located using animated visible satellite imagery as the sun came
up this morning. The low level centre is exposed and lies just to the east of
the deep convection. Confidence is good in the location.

Dvorak analysis based on a shear pattern yielding a 3-hourly average DT of 3.0,
however there is no tight gradient, so this is unreliable. The 24 trend is D-
which gives MET of 2.0, and PAT of 2.5, FT biased to PAT. FT/CI is 2.5.
Objective aids (all 1 min mean) at 0000UTC are ADT 35 kn, AiDT 34 kn, DPRINT 32
kn, DMINT 33 kn (2235 UTC) and SATCON 38 kn. Analysis intensity set at 40 knots
in the western quadrants based on earlier ASCAT pass at 1421 UTC and AMSR2 pass
at 1801 UTC.

In general the environment is somewhat favourable with warm SSTs and deep
moisture supplied by the active monsoon. However, 27U is currently affected by
strong vertical wind shear of about 20 knots. Model guidance indicate this
shear may persist for the next 1 to 3 days and as a result while quadrant gales
are expected to continue having these wrap more than half way around and 27U
become a tropical cyclone may be slow. During Wednesday an upper trough passing
to the south of 27U may improve outflow. Vertical wind shear may also reduce as
the mid-level ridge to the south somewhat slackens and/or 27U moves closer to
the ridge axis, The influence of shear is dependent of the systems location and
it may remain near a strong shear gradient. Model guidance suggests that
overall the environment may be more favourable for development from this point
onwards. However, with the influence of shear varied across the guidance
intensity and structure may fluctuate during the later part of the week and
into the weekend.

The environmental steering is consistent in models, with generally westwards
motion forecast throughout the week due to a ridge to the south. Although a
weak upper trough does move over the southern Indian Ocean, it is not expected
to amplify and significantly affect the steering.  As 27U leaves the Australian
region later on the weekend motion becomes more southwest as the ridge retreats
ahead of another upper trough developing in the central Indian Ocean.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 25/0730 UTC.


Time (AWST)Intensity CategoryLatitude
(decimal deg.)		Longitude
(decimal deg.)		Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr8 am March 25tropical low16.7S110.1E45
+6hr2 pm March 25tropical low16.5S109.6E70
+12hr8 pm March 25tropical low16.7S108.9E90
+18hr2 am March 26tropical low16.8S108.1E115
+24hr8 am March 26tropical low16.9S107.1E135
+36hr8 pm March 26tropical low16.9S105.3E165
+48hr8 am March 27116.5S103.4E190
+60hr8 pm March 27116.3S101.6E205
+72hr8 am March 28116.0S99.3E225

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发表于 2025-3-25 10:05 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 yhh 于 2025-3-25 11:30 编辑




WTXS31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 003   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   250000Z --- NEAR 16.7S 110.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S 110.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   251200Z --- 16.9S 108.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   260000Z --- 17.0S 106.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z --- 16.9S 104.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z --- 16.5S 103.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z --- 16.3S 99.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z --- 16.7S 94.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   300000Z --- 17.9S 91.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 109.6E.
25MAR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVEN), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 408 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 250000Z IS 995 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
250900Z AND 251500Z.
//
NNNN
  1. WDXS31 PGTW 250300
  2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
  3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVEN)
  4. WARNING NR 003//
  5. RMKS/
  6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
  7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

  9. SUMMARY:
  10.    INITIAL POSITION: 16.7S 110.0E
  11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
  12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 408 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA
  13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 05 KTS
  14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET

  16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
  17. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS FRAGMENTED
  18. SPIRAL CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
  19. CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OF TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 27S. THE
  20. ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS CONTAINED WITHIN THE WESTERN
  21. SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM, DUE TO STRONG (20-25 KTS) AND PERSISTENT
  22. NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
  23. REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR TC INTENSIFICATION, WITH WARM
  24. (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND STRONG POLEWARD
  25. OUTFLOW CHANNEL, OFFSET ONLY BY THE AFOREMENTIONED VWS. THE INITIAL
  26. POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ANIMATED HIGH
  27. RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS
  28. ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY DVORAK AND
  29. OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.

  31. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE

  33. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER
  34. SOUTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA

  36. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
  37.    PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
  38.    KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
  39.    CIMSS SATCON: 38 KTS AT 242245Z
  40.    CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 242330Z
  41.    CIMSS AIDT: 34 KTS AT 242330Z
  42.    CIMSS D-MINT: 33 KTS AT 242243Z
  43.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 33 KTS AT 250100Z

  45. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
  46.    VWS: 20-25 KTS
  47.    SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
  48.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

  50. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
  51.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
  52.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
  53.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

  55. 3. FORECAST REASONING.

  57. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
  58. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

  60. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 27S IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TRANSITING
  61. WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR CENTERED OVER
  62. SOUTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA THROUGH TAU 36. AFTERWARDS, AN UPPER LEVEL
  63. TROUGH PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRIEFLY AND SLIGHTLY
  64. WEAKEN THE STEERING. SHORTLY AFTER HOWEVER, ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL
  65. RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM, PUSHING IT ON A WEST-
  66. NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. AS TC 27S ROUNDS THE AXIS OF THE STR, IT WILL
  67. ONCE AGAIN TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD, THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
  68. FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN RELATIVELY FAVORABLE
  69. ENVIRONMENT, IT IS FORECAST TO REACH 40 KTS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS
  70. AND MAINTAIN THIS INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 72, AS IT BALANCES BETWEEN
  71. WARM SST, GOOD OUTFLOW AND MODERATE TO STRONG VWS. WITHIN THE NEXT 24
  72. HOURS, TC 27S WILL BEGIN APPROACHING A REGION OF DRY AIR, WHICH WILL
  73. ALSO HINDER ANY SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. ADDITIONALLY, NEWEST
  74. TRACK GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AND
  75. WITHIN A REGION OF MODERATE TO STRONG VWS. AS THE SYSTEM TURNS WEST-
  76. SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND TAU 96, THE VWS WILL SUBSIDE, LEADING TO
  77. POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION. AT THE SAME TIME, THE IMPACTS OF
  78. DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL BECOME MORE SIGNIFICANT, PUTTING A 50-55 KT
  79. CAP ON PEAK INTENSITY BETWEEN TAU 96 AND 120.

  81. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR
  82. AGREEMENT IN REGARD TO THE TRACK, AS INDICATED BY A 100 NM
  83. CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 72, INCREASING TO 220 NM BY THE END OF
  84. THE FORECAST PERIOD. JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS LAID WITH MEDIUM
  85. CONFIDENCE, AND CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, WHICH REFLECTS
  86. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED STEERING PATTERN INDICATED BY ALL OF THE
  87. CONSENSUS MEMBERS. IN REGARD TO INTENSITY, JTWC FORECAST IS ALSO
  88. ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGH TAU 120, AND CLOSE THE MULTI-
  89. MODEL CONSENSUS, AS THE GUIDANCE FROM ALL MEMBERS HAS TIGHTENED.
  90. CURRENT INTENSITY SPREAD RANGES FROM 10 KTS AT TAU 24, TO 15 KTS AT
  91. TAU 120. GFS DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS THE MOST CONSERVATIVE, WITH A
  92. PEAK INTENSITY OF 40 KTS REACHED AT TAU 108, WHILE HWRF IS THE MOST
  93. AGGRESSIVE, INDICATING HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS OF 55 KTS BETWEEN TAU 96
  94. AND 120.

  96. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
  97.    TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
  98.    TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
  99.    INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
  100.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
  101. NNNN
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6548

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强台风

Super Typhoon

积分
6548
发表于 2025-3-25 14:45 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2025-3-25 15:05 编辑

IDW24000
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 2:39 pm WST on Tuesday 25 March 2025

A Tropical Low was located at 2:00 pm AWST near 16.8S 109.2E,that is 770 km
northwest of Exmouth and 800 km south southeast of Christmas Island and moving
west southwest at 14 kilometres per hour.

Tropical low 27U is located well to the northwest of the Pilbara coast and is
expected to continue to move westwards, further away from the Australian
mainland. 27U is only slowly developing and it is forecast to have gales extend
around the system and become a tropical cyclone during Thursday while
continuing to move westwards.

It will not impact the Western Australian coast, the Cocos (Keeling) Islands or
Christmas Island.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 9:00 pm AWST Tuesday 25 March.
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0653 UTC 25/03/2025
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 27U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 16.8S
Longitude: 109.2E
Location Accuracy: within 25nm (45 km)
Movement Towards: west southwest (259 deg)
Speed of Movement: 8 knots (14 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots (65 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots (100 km/h)
Central Pressure: 995 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 35 nm (65 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:   nm (  km)
Radius of Maximum Winds:   nm (  km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.5/S0.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 170 nm (315 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  25/1200: 17.0S 108.5E:     035 (070):  040  (075):  992
+12:  25/1800: 17.2S 107.3E:     050 (090):  040  (075):  992
+18:  26/0000: 17.3S 106.3E:     065 (115):  040  (075):  992
+24:  26/0600: 17.3S 105.3E:     075 (135):  040  (075):  992
+36:  26/1800: 16.9S 103.5E:     085 (155):  040  (075):  992
+48:  27/0600: 16.6S 101.7E:     090 (165):  040  (075):  992
+60:  27/1800: 16.4S  99.7E:     095 (175):  040  (075):  992
+72:  28/0600: 16.4S  97.5E:     110 (205):  040  (075):  992
+96:  29/0600: 17.3S  93.0E:     155 (285):  045  (085):  990
+120: 30/0600: 18.7S  89.4E:     190 (350):  060  (110):  976
REMARKS:
Tropical Low 27U lies well to the northwest of Western Australia and is
forecast to slowly develop as it tracks westwards over the Indian Ocean.  

27U was located using animated visible satellite imagery. The low level centre
has been exposed for most of the day, though has recently been obscured by some
convection developing to the west. While at times low cloud lines have shown
27U to be multicentred confidence in the location is good.

Dvorak analysis based on a shear pattern yielding a 3-hourly average DT of 2.5,
however there is no tight gradient and this has large fluctuations, so is
unreliable. The 24 trend is W- which gives MET of 1.5, and PAT of 2.0, FT
biased to PAT. FT is 2.0 and CI held at 2.0 with initial weakening. Objective
aids (all 1 min mean) at 0530UTC are ADT 35 kn, AiDT 35 kn, DPRINT 30 kn, and
SATCON (0500 UTC) 40 kn. Analysis intensity set at 35 knots in the southern
quadrants based on ASCAT-C at 0223 UTC and is consistent with a slight
weakening during the day.

In general the environment is somewhat favourable with warm SSTs and deep
moisture supplied by the active monsoon. However, 27U is currently affected by
vertical wind shear of about 20 knots. Model guidance indicate this shear may
persist for the next 24 to 48 hours, and as a result while quadrant gales are
expected to continue, having these wrap more than half way around and 27U
become a tropical cyclone may be slow. Additionally, fluctuations in intensity,
especially following the diurnal pattern, are expected during this period.

During Thursday an upper trough passing to the south of 27U may improve
outflow. Vertical wind shear may also reduce as the mid-level ridge to the
south somewhat slackens and/or 27U moves closer to the ridge axis, The
influence of shear is dependent of the systems location and it may remain near
a strong shear gradient. Model guidance suggests that overall the environment
may be more favourable for development from this point onwards. However, with
the influence of shear varied across the guidance intensity and structure may
fluctuate during the later part of the week and into the weekend.

The environmental steering is consistent in guidance, with generally westwards
motion forecast throughout the week due to a ridge to the south. Although a
weak upper trough does move over the southern Indian Ocean, it is not expected
to amplify sufficiently to significantly affect the steering.  As 27U leaves
the Australian region later on the weekend motion becomes more southwest as the
ridge retreats ahead of another upper trough developing in the central Indian
Ocean.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 25/1330 UTC.



Time (AWST)Intensity CategoryLatitude
(decimal deg.)		Longitude
(decimal deg.)		Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr2 pm March 25tropical low16.8S109.2E45
+6hr8 pm March 25tropical low17.0S108.5E70
+12hr2 am March 26tropical low17.2S107.3E90
+18hr8 am March 26tropical low17.3S106.3E115
+24hr2 pm March 26tropical low17.3S105.3E135
+36hr2 am March 27tropical low16.9S103.5E155
+48hr2 pm March 27tropical low16.6S101.7E165
+60hr2 am March 28116.4S99.7E175
+72hr2 pm March 28116.4S97.5E205

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发表于 2025-3-25 16:01 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 yhh 于 2025-3-25 17:15 编辑




WTXS31 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 004   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   250600Z --- NEAR 16.8S 109.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 109.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 17.2S 107.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 17.3S 104.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z --- 17.0S 102.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z --- 16.7S 100.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z --- 16.5S 96.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   290600Z --- 17.5S 91.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   300600Z --- 19.0S 88.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 108.6E.
25MAR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVEN), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 434 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 250600Z IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z, 252100Z, 260300Z AND 260900Z.//
NNNN
  1. WDXS31 PGTW 250900
  2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
  3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVEN)
  4. WARNING NR 004//
  5. RMKS/
  6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
  7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

  9. SUMMARY:
  10.    INITIAL POSITION: 16.8S 109.1E
  11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
  12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 434 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA
  13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 09 KTS
  14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET

  16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
  17. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
  18. CYCLONE 27S WITH A WELL-DEFINED, PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
  19. CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND DEEP CONVECTIVE BURSTS BEGINNING TO
  20. FORM OVER THE CENTER. A 250616Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS
  21. THE DEEP CONVECTION OFFSET SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC.
  22. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 27S IS IN A MARGINALLY
  23. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
  24. ALOFT, MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DRY AIR WITHIN THE
  25. NORTHERN PERIPHERY, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
  26. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
  27. EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE ANIMATED MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
  28. OF 40 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 250225Z
  29. METOP-C ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING A SWATH OF 35 KNOT WINDS WITHIN THE
  30. SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE AGENCY DVORAK AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY
  31. ESTIMATES FURTHER SUPPORTED THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT.

  33. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 250225Z METOP-C SCATTEROMETER DATA

  35. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
  36. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE SOUTH.

  38. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
  39.    PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
  40.    KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
  41.    APRF: T2.5 - 35 KTS
  42.    CIMSS SATCON: 40 KTS AT 250328Z
  43.    CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 250610Z
  44.    CIMSS AIDT: 35 KTS AT 250610Z
  45.    CIMSS DMINT: 35 KTS AT 250616Z

  47. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
  48.    VWS: 15-20 KTS
  49.    SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
  50.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
  51.    OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR WITHIN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY

  53. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
  54.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
  55.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
  56.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

  58. 3. FORECAST REASONING.

  60. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
  61. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

  63. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 27S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
  64. WESTWARD, ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, THROUGH TAU 48.
  65. NEAR TAU 48, A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN THE STR,
  66. BUT A SECOND STR WILL FOLLOW AND BUILD TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
  67. THIS WILL ALLOW 27S TO TRACK FURTHER WESTWARD. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
  68. BEGIN TO ROUND THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR NEAR TAU 120.
  69. REGARDING INTENSITY, TC 27S IS FORECAST TO GENERALLY MAINTAIN
  70. INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 48 DUE TO THE PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY
  71. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AFTER TAU 48, SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DROP TO
  72. BELOW 10 KTS, ALLOWING FOR THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY TO AROUND 65 KTS
  73. AT TAU 120. HOWEVER, DRY AIR AND SLIGHTLY COOLING SEA SURFACE
  74. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO HINDER SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.

  76. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN MODERATE AGREEMENT
  77. REGARDING THE TRACK OF 27S. CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 72 IS 95 NM,
  78. BUT ALONG-TRACK SPREAD IS HIGHER, NEAR 225 NM. GFS IS THE SLOWEST
  79. MODEL, WHILE ECMWF IS THE FASTEST. THE HIGH ALONG-TRACK SPREAD
  80. PERSISTS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING OVERALL MEDIUM
  81. CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. INTENSITY GUIDANCE
  82. DISAGREES, PARTICULARLY AFTER TAU 72, WITH A 70 KNOT SPREAD IN
  83. GUIDANCE AT TAU 120. GFS KEEPS THE VORTEX MUCH WEAKER, NEVER
  84. REACHING ABOVE 40 KTS, WHILE HAFS-A SPIKES THE INTENSITY AFTER TAU
  85. 84, TO AROUND 100 KTS AT TAU 120. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE HAS MANY
  86. MEMBERS REACHING OVER 60 KTS. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED
  87. CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72 AND SLIGHTLY
  88. HIGHER NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST WITHOUT BITING OFF ON THE
  89. HAFS-A SUGGESTION DUE TO THE EXPECTED DRY AIR ACTING ON THE VORTEX
  90. AND LACK OF A STRONG OUTFLOW CHANNEL.

  92. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
  93.    TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
  94.    TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
  95.    INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
  96.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
  97. NNNN
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发表于 2025-3-25 20:46 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2025-3-25 21:30 编辑

IDW24000
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 8:45 pm WST on Tuesday 25 March 2025

A Tropical Low was located at 8:00 pm AWST near 17.1S 108.2E,that is 820 km
northwest of Exmouth and 790 km south southeast of Christmas Island and moving
west southwest at 17 kilometres per hour.

Tropical low 27U is located well to the northwest of the Pilbara coast and is
expected to continue to move westwards, further away from the Australian
mainland. 27U is only slowly developing and it is forecast to have gales extend
around the system and become a tropical cyclone during Thursday while
continuing to move westwards.

It will not impact the Western Australian coast, the Cocos (Keeling) Islands or
Christmas Island.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 3:00 am AWST Wednesday 26 March.


AXAU01 APRF 251325
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
ISSUED BY AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
AT: 1325 UTC 25/03/2025
NAME: TROPICAL LOW
IDENTIFIER: 27U
DATA AT: 1200 UTC
LATITUDE: 17.1S
LONGITUDE: 108.2E
LOCATION ACCURACY: WITHIN 30NM (55 KM)
MOVEMENT TOWARDS: WEST SOUTHWEST (258 DEG)
SPEED OF MOVEMENT: 9 KNOTS (17 KM/H)
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE WIND: 35 KNOTS (65 KM/H)
MAXIMUM 3-SECOND WIND GUST: 50 KNOTS (95 KM/H)
CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS NE QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS SE QUADRANT: 50 NM (95 KM)
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS SW QUADRANT: 70 NM (130 KM)
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS NW QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS NE QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS SE QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS SW QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS NW QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 64-KNOT WINDS:   NM (  KM)
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS:   NM (  KM)
DVORAK INTENSITY CODE: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
PRESSURE OF OUTERMOST ISOBAR: 1003 HPA
RADIUS OF OUTERMOST CLOSED ISOBAR: 160 NM (295 KM)
FORECAST DATA
DATE/TIME    : LOCATION    : LOC. ACCURACY: MAX WIND   : CENTRAL PRESSURE
(UTC)        : DEGREES     :      NM  (KM): KNOTS(KM/H): HPA
+06:  25/1800: 17.3S 107.3E:     040 (080):  040  (075):  993
+12:  26/0000: 17.4S 106.2E:     050 (095):  040  (075):  993
+18:  26/0600: 17.5S 105.1E:     060 (110):  040  (075):  993
+24:  26/1200: 17.3S 104.1E:     065 (120):  040  (075):  993
+36:  27/0000: 16.9S 102.0E:     075 (135):  045  (085):  990
+48:  27/1200: 16.8S 100.1E:     090 (160):  050  (095):  987
+60:  28/0000: 16.5S  97.7E:     105 (190):  055  (100):  984
+72:  28/1200: 16.7S  95.4E:     115 (215):  060  (110):  980
+96:  29/1200: 17.9S  90.9E:     155 (285):  055  (100):  984
+120: 30/1200: 19.5S  87.5E:     195 (360):  050  (095):  984
REMARKS:
TROPICAL LOW 27U LIES WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF WESTERN AUSTRALIA AND IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY DEVELOP AS IT TRACKS WESTWARDS OVER THE INDIAN OCEAN.

27U WAS LOCATED USING ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY. THE LOW LEVEL CENTRE WAS EXPOSED
FOR MOST OF THE DAY, THOUGH OBSCURED BY SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING TO THE WEST
LATE IN THE EVENING. LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES ARE STILL EVIDENT IN EIR IMAGERY,
THOUGH THE CENTRE IS OBSCURED BY UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS. CONFIDENCE IN POSITION
REMAINS MODERATE. A SCATTEROMETER PASS IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE EVENING WHICH
WILL PROVIDE USEFUL INFORMATION ON POSITION.

DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON A SHEAR PATTERN YIELDING A 3-HOURLY AVERAGE DT OF 2.5.
THE 24 TREND IS D- AS LOW-LEVEL ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED AND CONVECTION IS NOW
CERTAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM CENTRE, WHEREAS 24 HOURS AGO THERE WERE
BROAD CLUMPS OF CONVECTION OCCURRING WELL AWAY FROM THE SYSTEM LOCATION. MET OF
2.5, WITH NO ADJUSTMENT SO PAT IS ALSO 2.5. FT AND CI ASSESSED AS 2.5.
OBJECTIVE AIDS (ALL 1-MIN MEAN) AT 1200UTC ARE ADT 37 KN, AIDT 34 KN, DPRINT 36
KN. DMINT AT 1118UTC WAS 32 KN. MOST RECENT SATCON AT 0740UTC WAS 46 KN.
ANALYSIS INTENSITY SET AT 35 KNOTS IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANTS BASED ON STRUCTURE
FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY.

THE ENVIRONMENT IS MODERATELY FAVOURABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM SSTS OF 27C
AND DEEP MOISTURE SUPPLIED BY THE ACTIVE MONSOON. NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OF APPROXIMATELY 19 KNOTS IS HAVING AN IMPACT WITH CONVECTION ALL LOCATED
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTRE AND UNABLE TO EXTEND INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS SHEAR MAY
GRADUALLY REDUCE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. WHILST QUADRANT GALES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, HAVING THESE WRAP MORE THAN HALF WAY AROUND AND 27U
BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY BE SLOW AND IS NOT FORECAST TO OCCUR IN A
PERSISTENT MANNER UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY, ESPECIALLY
FOLLOWING THE DIURNAL PATTERN, ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD WHILST THE SHEAR
REMAINS MODERATE TO HIGH, WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BURSTS LIKELY TO RESULT IN
PERIODS OF INCREASED INTENSITY, AND POSSIBLY EVEN EXTENDING INTERMITTENT GALES
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT FOR SHORT PERIODS OF TIME.

DURING THURSDAY IT IS EXPECTED A MORE RELAXED UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL
RESULT IN DECREASED SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. THIS BRINGS HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF
PERSISTENT GALES EXTENDING AROUND THE SYSTEM AND FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO
OCCUR. BY FRIDAY EVENING IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE MOVED OVER
COOLER WATERS. THIS WILL THEN INHIBIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND A GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND IS LIKELY AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS
THE BORDER OF THE AUSTRALIAN REGION DURING THE WEEKEND.

THE ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING IS CONSISTENT IN GUIDANCE, WITH GENERALLY WESTWARDS
MOTION FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK DUE TO A RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. ALTHOUGH A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH DOES MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN, IT IS NOT EXPECTED
TO AMPLIFY SUFFICIENTLY TO SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THE STEERING.  AS 27U LEAVES
THE AUSTRALIAN REGION DURING THE WEEKEND MOTION BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST AS THE
RIDGE RETREATS AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL INDIAN
OCEAN.

COPYRIGHT COMMONWEALTH OF AUSTRALIA
==
THE NEXT BULLETIN FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY: 25/1930 UTC.=



Time (AWST)Intensity CategoryLatitude
(decimal deg.)		Longitude
(decimal deg.)		Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr8 pm March 25tropical low17.1S108.2E55
+6hr2 am March 26tropical low17.3S107.3E80
+12hr8 am March 26tropical low17.4S106.2E95
+18hr2 pm March 26tropical low17.5S105.1E110
+24hr8 pm March 26tropical low17.3S104.1E120
+36hr8 am March 27116.9S102.0E135
+48hr8 pm March 27216.8S100.1E160
+60hr8 am March 28216.5S97.7E190
+72hr8 pm March 28216.7S95.4E215

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发表于 2025-3-25 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 yhh 于 2025-3-25 23:15 编辑




WTXS31 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 005   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   251200Z --- NEAR 17.0S 108.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 108.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   260000Z --- 17.3S 106.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z --- 17.3S 104.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z --- 17.0S 102.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z --- 16.7S 99.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z --- 16.7S 95.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z --- 17.9S 91.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   301200Z --- 19.3S 87.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 107.7E.
25MAR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVEN), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 461 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS
TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 251200Z IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z, 260300Z, 260900Z AND 261500Z.//
NNNN
  1. WDXS31 PGTW 251500
  2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
  3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVEN)
  4. WARNING NR 005//
  5. RMKS/
  6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
  7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

  9. SUMMARY:
  10.    INITIAL POSITION: 17.0S 108.2E
  11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
  12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 461 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA
  13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KTS
  14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET

  16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
  17. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
  18. CYCLONE 27S WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
  19. (LLCC) AND DEEP CONVECTIVE BURSTS ALONG THE WESTERN SECTOR OF THE
  20. LLCC. MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO ACT
  21. ON THE SYSTEM, CAUSING THE VORTEX TO TILT WESTWARD WITH HEIGHT. A
  22. 251116Z F17 SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A VERY STRONG BURST OF
  23. CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER WITH THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES
  24. WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
  25. 27S IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE
  26. POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
  27. SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE INITIAL
  28. POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTIALLY
  29. EXPOSED LLCC IN THE ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40
  30. KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE HIGHER END OF THE
  31. AGENCY DVORAK AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.

  33. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE

  35. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
  36. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE SOUTH.

  38. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
  39.    PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
  40.    KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
  41.    DEMS: T2.5 - 35 KTS
  42.    APRF: T2.5 - 35 KTS
  43.    CIMSS SATCON: 46 KTS AT 251210Z
  44.    CIMSS ADT: 37 KTS AT 251210Z
  45.    CIMSS AIDT: 34 KTS AT 251210Z
  46.    CIMSS DPRINT: 36 KTS AT 251210Z

  48. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
  49.    VWS: 15-20 KTS
  50.    SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
  51.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

  53. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
  54.    INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
  55.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
  56.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

  58. 3. FORECAST REASONING.

  60. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
  61. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

  63. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 27S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
  64. WESTWARD, ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, THROUGH TAU 36.
  65. NEAR TAU 36, A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN THE STR,
  66. BUT A SECOND STR WILL FOLLOW AND BUILD TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
  67. THIS WILL ALLOW 27S TO TRACK FURTHER WESTWARD RATHER THAN BEGINNING
  68. A POLEWARD TURN. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN EVENTUALLY ROUND THE
  69. NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SECOND STR NEAR TAU 120. REGARDING
  70. INTENSITY, TC 27S IS FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT
  71. 24 HOURS DUE TO THE SHEAR DROPPING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS.
  72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 48. NEAR TAU
  73. 48, SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DROP FURTHER, BELOW 10 KTS, ALLOWING FOR
  74. THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY TO AROUND 65 KTS AT TAU 96. AFTER TAU 96,
  75. DRY AIR AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO HALT
  76. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO TRACK MORE
  77. POLEWARD.

  79. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN MODERATE AGREEMENT
  80. REGARDING THE TRACK OF 27S. CROSS-TRACK SPREAD REMAINS SMALL, BUT
  81. ALONG-TRACK SPREAD CONTINUES TO BE AROUND 230 NM AT TAU 72 AND
  82. PERSISTS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. ECMWF IS THE FASTEST MODEL
  83. WHILE GFS IS THE SLOWEST IN TERMS OF THE TRACK SPEED OF 27S. THE
  84. JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED WITH OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AS A
  85. RESULT. INTENSITY GUIDANCE DISAGREES, PARTICULARLY AFTER TAU 60,
  86. WITH A 75 KNOT SPREAD AT TAU 96. COAMPS-TC AND GFS ARE THE LEAST
  87. AGGRESSIVE, SUGGESTING NO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AFTER TAU 60. ON
  88. THE OTHER HAND, HAFS-A IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE, AND PEAKS AT 110 KTS
  89. AT TAU 96. NOTABLY, THE GFS ENSEMBLE HAS NO MEMBERS THAT REACH 60
  90. KTS WHILE THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE HAS A MAJORITY OF MEMBERS THAT REACH
  91. 60 KTS, FURTHER DISPLAYING THE DISAGREEMENT IN HOW MODELS DEVELOP
  92. THE SYSTEM. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE
  93. MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 48 AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
  94. THEREAFTER, WITHOUT BITING OFF ON THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT THAT HAFS-A
  95. SHOWS DUE TO THE EXPECTED DRY AIR AND LACK OF A STRONG OUTFLOW
  96. CHANNEL.

  98. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
  99.    TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
  100.    TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
  101.    INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
  102.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
  103. NNNN
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