中东太／北大各类图像自动更新暨非扰动云团专帖（2024年）

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 141718
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Jul 14 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central and Western East Pacific:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.  Development of this
system, if any, should be slow to occur while it moves westward or
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central and western
portion of the basin through mid- to late-week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 142302
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Jul 14 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central and Western East Pacific:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing a large
but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental
conditions could become more conducive for some development in a
day or two while it moves westward or west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph across the central and western portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

ygsj24

757
ABPZ20 KNHC 150502
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Jul 14 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central and Western East Pacific:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce
a large area of showers and thunderstorms.  This wave is slightly
better organized than yesterday, and environmental conditions
could become more conducive for further development in a day or so.
This system could become a tropical depression mid- to late-week
while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the
central and western portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 151130
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Jul 15 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central and Western East Pacific:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce a
large area of showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions
appear conducive for development in the next couple of days and a
tropical depression could form mid- to late-week as the system moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central and western
portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

红豆棒冰冰

ygsj24 发表于 2024-7-15 19:35
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 151130
TWOEP

已编号92E

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 162308 CCA
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Corrected for 5 to 7 days in second system.

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Western East Pacific (EP92):
A broad, elongated area of low pressure located several hundred
miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.  While a tropical depression could still form during
the next day or two, the window for further development is
shortening with stronger upper-level winds and cooler waters
anticipated on Thursday.  The system is forecast to move west-
northwestward at 10-15 mph across the western part of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is likely to form this weekend a few
hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico.  Some
slow development of this system is possible early next week while
it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10-15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

红豆棒冰冰

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Jul 16 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Western East Pacific (EP92):
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  While a
tropical depression could still form during the next day or so, the
window for further development is closing with stronger upper-level
winds and cooler waters anticipated on Thursday.  The system is
forecast to move west-northwestward at about 10 mph across the
western part of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

2. South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is likely to form this weekend a few
hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico.  Some
slow development of this system is possible early next week while
it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10-15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


Forecaster Blake

红豆棒冰冰

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Jul 17 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Western East Pacific (EP92):
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  While
a tropical depression could still form during the next day or so,
the window for further development is closing with stronger
upper-level winds and cooler waters anticipated on Thursday.  The
system is forecast to move west-northwestward at about 10 mph across
the western part of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

2. South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is likely to form this weekend a few hundred
miles south of the coast of southern Mexico.  Some slow development
of this system is possible early next week while it moves westward
to west-northwestward at 10-15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


Forecaster Pasch

红豆棒冰冰

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Jul 17 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Western East Pacific (EP92):
A broad area of low pressure located more than a thousand miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
is producing poorly-organized showers and thunderstorms.  While a
short-lived tropical depression could still form during the next
day or so, the window for further development is closing with the
system expected to encounter stronger upper-level winds and cooler
waters by late Thursday.  The low is forecast to move
west-northwestward at about 10 mph across the western part of the
basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

2. South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is likely to form this weekend a few hundred
miles south of the coast of southern Mexico.  Some slow development
of this system is possible early next week while it moves westward
to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


Forecaster Beven

红豆棒冰冰

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Jul 17 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Western East Pacific (EP92):
A broad area of low pressure located more than a thousand miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms well
removed from its center.  Environmental conditions near the system
are becoming less conducive, with stronger upper-level winds and
cooler waters, and its window for further development is closing.  
The low is forecast to move generally west-northwestward at about  
10 mph across the western part of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

2. South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form by this weekend a few hundred
miles south of the coast of southern Mexico.  Thereafter, some slow
development of this system is possible by the middle of next week
while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


Forecaster Papin