中东太／北大各类图像自动更新暨非扰动云团专帖（2024年）

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211133
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Jul 21 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Western East Pacific:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over
the far western portion of the eastern Pacific is associated with a
broad area of low pressure.  Environmental conditions are forecast
to be marginally conducive for some gradual development during the
next couple of days while the system moves westward at 10 to
15 mph toward the central Pacific basin.  By midweek, stronger
upper-level winds are expected to inhibit further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Central and Western East Pacific:
A tropical wave located well to the south-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California Peninsula is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions appear
conducive for some gradual development of this system over the next
several days while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph across the central and western portions of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

红豆棒冰冰

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Jul 21 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Western East Pacific:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over
the far western portion of the eastern Pacific is associated with a
trough of low pressure.  Environmental conditions are forecast
to be marginally conducive for some slow development during the
next day or so.  The disturbance is forecast to move westward at
10 to 15 mph and into the central Pacific basin tonight or early
Monday.  By midweek, strong upper-level winds are expected to
inhibit further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

2. Central and Western East Pacific:
A tropical wave located well to the south-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California Peninsula is producing limited shower
and thunderstorm activity.  Environmental conditions could become a
little more conducive for some gradual development of this system
over the next several days while it moves westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central and western
portions of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.


Forecaster Brown

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 212321
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Jul 21 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Western East Pacific:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over
the far western portion of the eastern Pacific is associated with a
trough of low pressure.  Environmental conditions are forecast
to be marginally conducive for some slow development during the
next day or so.  The disturbance is forecast to move westward at
10 to 15 mph and into the central Pacific basin tonight, and by
midweek, strong upper-level winds are expected to inhibit further
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Central and Western East Pacific:
A tropical wave located about 900 miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula is producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.  Environmental
conditions could become a little more conducive for some gradual
development of this system over the next several days while it moves
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central
and western portions of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low... 10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

红豆棒冰冰

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Jul 21 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Western East Pacific:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over
the far western portion of the eastern Pacific is associated with a
trough of low pressure.  Environmental conditions are forecast to be
marginally conducive for some slow development during the next day
or so.  The disturbance is forecast to move westward at 10 to 15 mph
and into the central Pacific basin by early Monday morning.  By
midweek, strong upper-level winds are expected to inhibit further
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

2. Central and Western East Pacific:
A tropical wave located hundreds of miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula is producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.  Environmental
conditions could become a little more conducive for some gradual
development of this system over the next several days while it moves
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central
and western portions of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.


Forecaster Kelly

ygsj24

740
ABPZ20 KNHC 221143
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Jul 22 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central and Western East Pacific:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula is producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.  Environmental
conditions could become a little more conducive for some gradual
development of this system over the next several days while it moves
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central
and western portions of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Offshore Southwestern Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles
south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico are associated with a surface
trough.  Environmental conditions could support slight development
over the next couple of days as the system moves slowly
west-northwestward, remaining offshore of southwestern Mexico.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Brown

红豆棒冰冰

ZCZC HFOTWOCP ALL
TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
200 AM HST Mon Jul 22 2024

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

1. Approximately 1,100 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over
the far eastern portion of the central Pacific basin is associated
with a trough of low pressure.  Environmental conditions are
forecast to be marginally conducive for some slow development during
the next 24 hours.  The disturbance is forecast to move westward at
10 to 15 mph. Strong upper-level winds are expected to inhibit
further development by the middle of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Bohlin

红豆棒冰冰

ZCZC HFOTWOCP ALL
TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
800 AM HST Mon Jul 22 2024

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

1. Approximately 1,050 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over
the far eastern portion of the central Pacific basin is associated
with a trough of low pressure.  Environmental conditions are
forecast to be marginally conducive for some slow development during
the next 24 hours.  The disturbance is forecast to move westward at
10 to 15 mph. Strong upper-level winds are expected to inhibit
further development by the middle of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Kino

红豆棒冰冰

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Jul 22 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Central and Western East Pacific:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula is producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.  Environmental
conditions could become a little more conducive for some gradual
development of this system over the next several days while it moves
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central
and western portions of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

2. Offshore Southwestern Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles
south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico are associated with a tropical
wave.  Environmental conditions could support slight development
over the next couple of days as the system moves slowly
west-northwestward or northwestward, remaining offshore of
southwestern Mexico.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.


Forecaster Hagen/Brown

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 222324
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Jul 22 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central and Western East Pacific:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula is producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.  Environmental
conditions could become a little more conducive for some gradual
development of this system over the next several days while it moves
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central
and western portions of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Offshore Southwestern Mexico:
An area of showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles
south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico is associated with a tropical
wave.  This system has become a little better organized today, and
some further development is possible while it moves generally
west-northwestward over the next couple of days, remaining  offshore
of southwestern Mexico.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

红豆棒冰冰

ZCZC HFOTWOCP ALL
TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
200 PM HST Mon Jul 22 2024

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

1. Approximately 1,000 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over
the far eastern portion of the central Pacific basin is associated
with a trough of low pressure.  Environmental conditions are
forecast to be marginally conducive for some slow development during
the next 24 hours.  The disturbance is forecast to move westward at
10 to 15 mph. Strong shear will inhibit further development of this
system by the middle of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Kino