马达加斯加以东中等热带风暴第7号“法伊达”(11S.Faida) - 强风切阻发展

ygsj24

WTXS31 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 002   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   290000Z --- NEAR 12.5S 76.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S 76.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z --- 14.0S 75.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   300000Z --- 15.1S 73.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   301200Z --- 15.8S 71.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   310000Z --- 16.3S 69.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   010000Z --- 17.4S 64.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   020000Z --- 19.2S 60.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   030000Z --- 20.9S 58.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 12.9S 76.0E.
29JAN25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 394 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 290000Z IS 998 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 291500Z AND 300300Z.//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 290300
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR
   
4. 002//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 12.5S 76.3E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 394 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM
    
18. CONTINUED TO STRUGGLE AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
    
19. REMAINED MOSTLY EXPOSED AND STATIONARY WITH THE CENTRAL CONVECTION
    
20. SHEARED WESTWARD. HOWEVER, IN THE LAST THREE HOURS, THE LLCC HAS
    
21. BEGUN TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY. THE
    
22. INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED
    
23. LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35KTS IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
    
24. BASED ON THE HIGH END OF AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS
    
25. THE MOSTLY SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS.
    
26. ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SST AND STRONG
    
27. POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY MODERATE TO STRONG VWS.
    
28. 
    
29. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA.
    
30. 
    
31. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
    
32. THE SOUTHEAST.
    
33. 
    
34. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
35.    PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
    
36.    KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS
    
37.    CIMSS SATCON: 36 KTS AT 282300Z
    
38.    CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 282330Z
    
39.    CIMSS AIDT: 35 KTS AT 282330Z
    
40. 
    
41. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
    
42.    VWS: 20-25 KTS
    
43.    SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
    
44.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
    
45. 
    
46. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
47.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
48.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
49.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
50. 
    
51. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
52. 
    
53. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
54. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
55. 
    
56. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 11S WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
    
57. STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE SOUTHEAST. AFTER TAU 36, THE
    
58. STEERING MECHANISM WILL TRANSITION TO A SECONDARY STR BUILDING IN
    
59. FROM THE SOUTHWEST, SLIGHTLY ALTERING THE TRACK TO A MORE
    
60. WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY. AFTER TAU 72, THE CYCLONE WILL AGAIN
    
61. TRACK TO A SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION AS THE SECONDARY STR RECEDES
    
62. EASTWARD. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL, AT BEST,
    
63. MAINTAIN THE INTENSITY IN EQUILIBRIUM AT 35KTS. AFTER TAU 72, THE
    
64. VWS WILL RELAX VERY SLIGHTLY, RESULTING IN A MINIMAL
    
65. INTENSIFICATION TO 40 KTS, SUSTAINED UP TO TAU 120.
    
66. 
    
67. MODEL DISCUSSION: THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
    
68. AGREEMENT WITH A GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO 148M BY TAU 72 THEN TO
    
69. 277NM BY TAU 120. HOWEVER, THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS WIDELY SPREAD
    
70. OUT WITH A VARIANCE OF 25KTS AT TAU 72 AND 35KTS AT TAU 120. IN
    
71. VIEW OF THESE, THERE IS ONLY A MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
    
72. AND INTENSITY FORECASTS FOR THE 5-DAY DURATION.
    
73. 
    
74. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
75.    TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
    
76.    TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
    
77.    INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
    
78.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
    
79. NNNN

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ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 290735
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/7/20242025
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 7

2.A POSITION 2025/01/29 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.9 S / 75.9 E
(THIRTEEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/1.5/S 0.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/29 18 UTC: 15.6 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 280 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2025/01/30 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 315 SW: 315 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 0

36H: 2025/01/30 18 UTC: 16.4 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 315 SW: 315 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 0

48H: 2025/01/31 06 UTC: 16.6 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 280 SW: 280 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 0

60H: 2025/01/31 18 UTC: 17.0 S / 65.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 0 NW: 0

72H: 2025/02/01 06 UTC: 17.7 S / 62.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/02/02 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 58.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE

120H: 2025/02/03 06 UTC: 20.4 S / 56.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=1.5

OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS, THE SYSTEM'S STRUCTURE SHOWED LITTLE CHANGE,
WITH STRONG CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTH- WESTERN QUADRANT, BUT
WITH AN EXPOSED CENTER ON THE EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. THE LATEST
ASCAT PASSES AND SATELLITE IMAGES CONFIRM THAT THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION IS ELONGATED, WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF AROUND 25KT.

THE SYSTEM'S TRAJECTORY IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD THEN
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED TO
ITS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THE STRENGTHENING OR WEAKENING OF THIS RIDGE
COULD SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER THIS TRAJECTORY. THE SYSTEM'S FUTURE
INTENSITY WILL ALSO BE AN IMPORTANT PARAMETER FOR THIS SCENARIO.
UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK IS THEREFORE SIGNIFICANT FROM FRIDAY
ONWARDS.

THE SYSTEM IS BENEFITING FROM A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
ITS DEVELOPMENT, WITH A SLIGHT DROP IN SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS,
VERY GOOD DIVERGENCE AND LIMITED SURFACE FEEDING ON BOTH SIDES. IT
COULD REACH THE TROPICAL STORM STAGE BY FRIDAY. VERY FEW MODELS
(HWRF, HAFS) SUGGEST INTENSIFICATION BEYOND THIS STAGE. IN FACT, WITH
THE INCREASE IN SHEAR ON FRIDAY AND THE WEAKENING OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE, IFS AND GFS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WILL FILL UP EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

THE SYSTEM DOES NOT POSE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO INHABITED LAND FOR
THE NEXT 72 HOURS.=

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 291310
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/7/20242025
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 7

2.A POSITION 2025/01/29 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.4 S / 75.2 E
(FOURTEEN    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/1.5/S 0.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/30 00 UTC: 15.7 S / 72.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2025/01/30 12 UTC: 16.3 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 0

36H: 2025/01/31 00 UTC: 16.6 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 0 NW: 0

48H: 2025/01/31 12 UTC: 16.7 S / 66.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 260 SW: 185 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 0 NW: 0

60H: 2025/02/01 00 UTC: 17.3 S / 63.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 260 SW: 0 NW: 0

72H: 2025/02/01 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 61.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 260 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/02/02 12 UTC: 20.5 S / 57.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE

120H: 2025/02/03 12 UTC: 21.6 S / 54.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=1.5

OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS, THE SYSTEM'S STRUCTURE SHOWED LITTLE CHANGE,
WITH STRONG CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, BUT
WITH AN EXPOSED CENTER ON THE EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. THE LATEST
MICROWAVE DATA (GPM) AND SATELLITE IMAGES CONFIRM THAT THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION IS STILL QUITE ELONGATED.

THE SYSTEM'S TRAJECTORY IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD THEN
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED TO
ITS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY MARKED INTENSIFICATION
FORECAST, DISCREPANCY IS NARROWING BETWEEN THE MAIN IFS AND GFS
MODELS. THE PRESENT FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THEIR LATEST RUNS.
UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS AT LONGER RANGE, DUE TO THE EXPECTED COLLAPSE OF
THE CIRCULATION.

THE SYSTEM IS BENEFITING FROM A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
ITS DEVELOPMENT, WITH A SLIGHT DROP IN SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS,
VERY GOOD DIVERGENCE AND LIMITED SURFACE FEEDING ON BOTH SIDES. IT
COULD REACH THE TROPICAL STORM STAGE BY FRIDAY. VERY FEW MODELS
(HWRF, HAFS) SUGGEST INTENSIFICATION BEYOND THIS STAGE. IN FACT, WITH
THE INCREASE IN SHEAR ON FRIDAY AND THE WEAKENING OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE, IFS AND GFS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WILL FILL UP EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

EXPECTED IMPACTS WITHIN THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

RODRIGUES :
- VERY ROUGH SEAS 4M FROM FRIDAY EVENING TO SATURDAY=

yhh

WTXS31 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 003   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   291200Z --- NEAR 14.6S 75.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S 75.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   300000Z --- 15.7S 72.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   301200Z --- 16.1S 70.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   310000Z --- 16.4S 68.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   311200Z --- 16.8S 66.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   011200Z --- 18.1S 61.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z --- 20.1S 58.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z --- 20.8S 56.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 14.9S 74.5E.
29JAN25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 473
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 291200Z IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z AND 301500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELVIS) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 291500
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING
   
4. NR 003//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 14.6S 75.0E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 473 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
18. CYCLONE 11S WITH AN ELONGATED, PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
    
19. CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE
    
20. SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. THE VORTEX CONTINUES TO BE TILTED WITH
    
21. HEIGHT AS IS APPARENT BY THE OFFSET CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL
    
22. ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 11S IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
    
23. CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (28-29
    
24. C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS)
    
25. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THE INITIAL POSITION
    
26. IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 291303Z SSMIS 91 GHZ
    
27. MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES. THE INITIAL
    
28. INTENSITY OF 30 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
    
29. AGENCY DVORAK AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.
    
30. 
    
31. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
    
32. RADII).
    
33. 
    
34. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
    
35. RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
    
36. 
    
37. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
38.    PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
    
39.    KNES: T1.5 - 25 KTS
    
40.    DEMS: T2.5 - 35 KTS
    
41.    CIMSS SATCON: 36 KTS AT 291100Z
    
42.    CIMSS ADT: 32 KTS AT 291200Z
    
43.    CIMSS AIDT: 33 KTS AT 291200Z
    
44.    CIMSS DPRINT: 31 KTS AT 291200Z
    
45.    CIMSS DMINT: 27 KTS AT 291203Z
    
46. 
    
47. 
    
48. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
    
49.    VWS: 20-25 KTS
    
50.    SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
    
51.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
    
52.    OTHER FACTORS: TILTED VORTEX WITH HEIGHT AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
    
53. WITHIN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY.
    
54. 
    
55. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
56.    INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
    
57.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
58.    INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE
    
59. 
    
60. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
61. 
    
62. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
63. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
64. 
    
65. FORECAST DISCUSSION: 11S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD, ALONG
    
66. THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU
    
67. 24, A SECOND STR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION
    
68. WHICH WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM MORE WESTWARD. NEAR TAU 48, 11S WILL
    
69. ROUND THE STR AND TRACK MORE SOUTHWESTWARD AGAIN AS IT HEADS TOWARD
    
70. MAURITIUS. REGARDING INTENSITY, 11S IS EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE A
    
71. BIT OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, BACK UP TO 35 KTS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
    
72. THROUGH TAU 36 AS THE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE MARGINAL. AFTER
    
73. TAU 36, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY DROP AND DRY
    
74. AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL LESSEN. THIS WILL ALLOW 11S TO GRADUALLY
    
75. INTENSIFY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD TO AROUND 45
    
76. KTS. THE ABILITY OF THE VORTEX TO BECOME VERTICALLY ALIGNED WILL BE
    
77. A MAJOR FACTOR ON IF 11S CAN INTENSIFY. IF IT IS UNABLE TO ALIGN,
    
78. IT MAY SHALLOW OUT AND DISSIPATE MUCH SOONER.
    
79. 
    
80. 
    
81. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
    
82. CONCERNING THE TRACK OF 11S. CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 72 IS 110
    
83. NM, WHICH OPENS UP TO 350 NM AT TAU 120. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS
    
84. PLACED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TAU 72 AND
    
85. MEDIUM THEREAFTER. INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN POOR
    
86. AGREEMENT. GFS SUGGESTS CONTINUOUS GRADUAL WEAKENING AFTER TAU 12
    
87. WHILE HWRF AND COAMPS-TC SUGGEST INTENSIFICATION TO AROUND 50 KTS
    
88. AT TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, HWRF CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM TO
    
89. AROUND 80 KTS AT TAU 120. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED IN
    
90. THE MIDDLE, CLOSER TO CONSENSUS, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE
    
91. FORECAST PERIOD.
    
92. 
    
93. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
94.    TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
    
95.    TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
    
96.    INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW
    
97.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
    
98. NNNN

复制代码

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 291930
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/7/20242025
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 7

2.A POSITION 2025/01/29 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.9 S / 73.1 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/1.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): NIL
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/30 06 UTC: 16.4 S / 70.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 220 NW: 100

24H: 2025/01/30 18 UTC: 16.6 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 195 SW: 220 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 75

36H: 2025/01/31 06 UTC: 16.8 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 215 SW: 220 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 75

48H: 2025/01/31 18 UTC: 17.0 S / 63.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 230 SW: 220 NW: 140

60H: 2025/02/01 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 61.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 150

72H: 2025/02/01 18 UTC: 19.3 S / 59.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/02/02 18 UTC: 21.2 S / 55.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE

120H: 2025/02/03 18 UTC: 22.1 S / 52.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=1.5

OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS STRENGTHENED IN THE
SOUTH-EAST QUADRANT. THE 1715Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A CENTER THAT HAS
APPROACHED THE EDGE OF THIS CONVECTION, BUT ALSO A SURFACE
CIRCULATION THAT IS STILL ELONGATED, AND MAXIMUM WINDS OF 25KT IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF-CERCLE.

THE SYSTEM'S TRAJECTORY IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD THEN
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED TO
ITS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY MARKED INTENSIFICATION
FORECAST, DISCREPANCY IS NARROWING BETWEEN THE MAIN IFS AND GFS
MODELS. THE PRESENT FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THEIR LATEST RUNS.
UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS AT LONGER RANGE, DUE TO THE EXPECTED COLLAPSE OF
THE CIRCULATION.

THE SYSTEM IS BENEFITING FROM A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
ITS DEVELOPMENT, WITH A SLIGHT DROP IN SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS,
VERY GOOD DIVERGENCE AND LIMITED SURFACE FEEDING ON BOTH SIDES. IT
COULD REACH THE TROPICAL STORM STAGE BY FRIDAY. VERY FEW MODELS
(HWRF, HAFS) SUGGEST INTENSIFICATION BEYOND THIS STAGE. IN FACT, WITH
THE INCREASE IN SHEAR ON FRIDAY AND THE WEAKENING OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE, IFS AND GFS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WILL FILL UP EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

EXPECTED IMPACTS WITHIN THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

RODRIGUES :
- VERY ROUGH SEAS 4M FROM FRIDAY EVENING TO SATURDAY=

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 300137
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/7/20242025
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7

2.A POSITION 2025/01/30 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.2 S / 71.8 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 16 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/1.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 220 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): NIL
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/30 12 UTC: 16.5 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 0 SW: 240 NW: 85

24H: 2025/01/31 00 UTC: 16.7 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 250 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 75

36H: 2025/01/31 12 UTC: 17.0 S / 65.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 260 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 95 NW: 75

48H: 2025/02/01 00 UTC: 17.4 S / 63.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 270 NW: 130

60H: 2025/02/01 12 UTC: 17.9 S / 61.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 230 SW: 280 NW: 140

72H: 2025/02/02 00 UTC: 19.0 S / 59.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/02/03 00 UTC: 20.8 S / 55.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE

120H: 2025/02/04 00 UTC: 21.8 S / 51.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 415 SW: 325 NW: 205

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=1.5

OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS STRENGTHENED IN THE
SOUTH-EAST QUADRANT. THE 1715Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A CENTER THAT HAS
APPROACHED THE EDGE OF THIS CONVECTION, BUT ALSO A SURFACE
CIRCULATION THAT IS STILL ELONGATED, AND MAXIMUM WINDS OF 25KT IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF-CERCLE.

THE SYSTEM'S TRAJECTORY IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH-WEST THEN
WEST-SOUTH-WEST ALONG THE EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTH-EAST. IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY MARKED INTENSIFICATION
FORECAST, DISCREPANCIES ARE NARROWING BETWEEN THE MAIN IFS AND GFS
MODELS. THE PRESENT FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THEIR LATEST NETWORK. A
TRANSIT NEAR MAURITIUS AND THEN REUNION AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND IS
LIKELY. UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, IN
CONNECTION WITH THE EXPECTED DESTRUCTURING OF THE CIRCULATION.

THE SYSTEM IS BENEFITING FROM AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE TO ITS DEVELOPMENT, WITH A SLIGHT DROP IN SHEAR OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS, VERY GOOD DIVERGENCE AND LIMITED SURFACE FEEDING ON BOTH
SIDES. THE TROPICAL STORM STAGE COULD BE REACHED BY FRIDAY. IN FACT,
WITH THE INCREASE IN SHEAR ON FRIDAY AND THE WEAKENING OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE, THE SYSTEM SHOULD DOWNGRADE TO A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
OR DEPRESSION AS IT COMES CLOSE TO THE MASCARENE ISLANDS. IN THE LONGER
TERM, A REINTENSIFICATION REMAINS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK.

EXPECTED IMPACTS WITHIN THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

RODRIGUES :
- VERY ROUGH SEAS 4M FROM FRIDAY EVENING TO SATURDAY

ygsj24

WTXS31 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 004   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   300000Z --- NEAR 16.0S 72.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 72.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   301200Z --- 16.5S 70.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   310000Z --- 16.7S 68.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   311200Z --- 17.2S 66.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   010000Z --- 17.7S 64.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   020000Z --- 19.3S 60.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   030000Z --- 21.3S 56.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z --- 22.1S 54.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 72.2E.
30JAN25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 534
NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 18
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 300000Z IS
996 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 301500Z AND 310300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S
(ELVIS) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 300300
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING
   
4. NR 004//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 16.0S 72.7E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 534 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 18 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS COOLING
    
18. TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING CONVECTION DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW
    
19. LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CONVECTION IS SHEARED TO THE
    
20. EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC LEAVING IT PARTLY EXPOSED, BUT A 292312Z
    
21. SSMIS CONFIRMS BOTH THE JTWC FIX AND THE VIGOR OF THE CONVECTION,
    
22. PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
    
23. ASSESSMENT IS HEDGED A LITTLE UPWARDS TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
    
24. BASED ON THE DEEPENING CONVECTION AND IS SUPPORTED BY AN ADT
    
25. ASSESSMENT OF 33KTS.  THERE IS ALSO A BELT OF VIGOROUS EASTERLIES ON
    
26. THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM PROVIDING A BOOST TO LOW LEVEL
    
27. VORTICITY. THE WINDFIELDS ARE ASYMMETRIC DUE TO THE VORTEX TRACKING
    
28. AWAY FROM THE STRONGEST WESTERLIES IN THE MONSOON TROF AND TOWARDS
    
29. THE BELT OF SEASONAL EASTERLIES OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN.
    
30. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING THROUGH A NARROW BELT OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LOW
    
31. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WITH A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT ON EITHER SIDE.
    
32. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES SHOW, HOWEVER, IMPRESSIVE RADIAL
    
33. OUTFLOW AS WELL AS CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION, SO THE SYSTEM IS
    
34. GETTING THE MOST OUT OF A MIXED AND NARROW ENVIRONMENT.
    
35. 
    
36. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
    
37. 
    
38. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE SOUTH INDIAN
    
39. OCEAN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
    
40. 
    
41. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
42.    PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
    
43.    KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS
    
44.    CIMSS ADT: 33 KTS AT 300000Z
    
45. 
    
46. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
    
47.    VWS: 20-25 KTS
    
48.    SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
    
49.    OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL
    
50. 
    
51. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
52.    INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
    
53.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
54.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
55. 
    
56. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
57. 
    
58. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
59. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
60. 
    
61. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WILL CHUG
    
62. STEADILY ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TOWARDS
    
63. MAURITIUS, WITH ITS DEVELOPMENT CAPPED AT LOW TROPICAL STORM
    
64. STRENGTH.  THE ENVIRONMENT IS SIMPLY TOO NARROW AND THE RELATIVELY
    
65. DRY MODIFIED MARITIME AIR FEEDING INTO THE BOTTOM SIDE OF THE
    
66. SYSTEM WILL MAKE INTENSIFICATION AN UPHILL BATTLE THROUGHOUT THE
    
67. SYSTEMS LIFE CYCLE. A 5-10 KNOT DROP IN VWS BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 48
    
68. WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO DEEPEN TO AS MUCH AS 45 KNOTS, BUT THAT
    
69. WILL BE THE EXTENT OF IT. AS MILD AS IT MAY BE, THAT DEEPENING WILL
    
70. RESULT IN A REAL THREAT OF GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
    
71. OF MAURITIUS.
    
72. 
    
73. MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHT WITH MINIMAL DISPARITY IN
    
74. BOTH ALONG TRACK AND CROSS TRACK POSITIONING. THE JTWC FORECAST IS
    
75. HEDGED JUST EQUATORWARD OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TOWARDS THE
    
76. ECMWF ENSEMBLE, WHICH HAS HAD A HOT HAND RECENTLY. THE INTENSITY
    
77. FORECAST IS BASED MORE HEAVILY IN STATISTICAL DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE
    
78. BUT IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE BULK OF GUIDANCE. THE ONE
    
79. SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER IS THE HFAS, WHICH IS THOROUGHLY UNIMPRESSED
    
80. WITH THE SYSTEMS POTENTIAL AND STAYS WELL BELOW THE REST OF THE
    
81. GUIDANCE.  
    
82. 
    
83. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
84.    TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
    
85.    TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
    
86.    INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW
    
87.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
    
88. NNNN

复制代码

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 300650
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/7/20242025
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7

2.A POSITION 2025/01/30 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.2 S / 70.4 E
(SIXTEEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 16 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 295 SW: 215 NW: 215

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/30 18 UTC: 16.6 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 305 SW: 230 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 95

24H: 2025/01/31 06 UTC: 17.0 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 305 SW: 240 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 95

36H: 2025/01/31 18 UTC: 17.3 S / 64.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 315 SW: 240 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 100

48H: 2025/02/01 06 UTC: 18.0 S / 62.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 325 SW: 250 NW: 150

60H: 2025/02/01 18 UTC: 18.9 S / 60.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE

72H: 2025/02/02 06 UTC: 19.8 S / 58.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/02/03 06 UTC: 21.4 S / 55.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE

120H: 2025/02/04 06 UTC: 21.6 S / 50.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 350 SW: 280 NW: 195

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE STRUCTURE OF SYSTEM NAO7 HAS CONTINUED TO
IMPROVE, WITH CONVECTION SHOWING MORE SIGNS OF CURVATURE AND THE
CENTER TENDING TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE CONVECTION. AT 06UTC, THE CENTER
IS ESTIMATED TO BE ON THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. THE
ASCAT PASS AT 0430Z CONFIRMED AN IMPROVEMENT IN THE WIND STRUCTURE,
BUT DID NOT ALLOW US TO ESTIMATE THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STATUS.
SYSTEM NAO7 REMAINS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH WINDS OF 30KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, LITTLE HAS CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM'S CENTER WILL FORCE
IT TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THEN, WITH A LITTLE
WEAKNESS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE FURTHER SOUTH-WEST FROM SATURDAY,
TAKING IT TOWARDS THE MASCAREIGNES. THE DISPERSION BETWEEN THE
GUIDANCES IS THEREFORE A LITTLE GREATER FROM THIS WEEK-END. THE TRACK
PREDICTED BY RSMC IS A CONSENSUS OF THE VARIOUS GUIDELINES AVAILABLE.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE MAIN OBSTACLE TO SYSTEM INTENSIFICATION IS
THE PRESENCE OF STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR (25KT ANALYZED BY CIMSS AT 00Z)
AND A LACK OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE
SHEAR COULD EASE SLIGHTLY, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY INTO A
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER, THE DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM
LIMITS THIS INTENSIFICATION CONSIDERABLY. THEN, FROM SATURDAY
ONWARDS, SHEAR AND AIR TAKE OVER THE SYSTEM AGAIN, AND A WEAKENING
SHOULD SET IN BEFORE IT PASSES CLOSE TO THE MASCAREIGNES. IN THE
LONGER TERM, A TIMID REINTENSIFICATION REMAINS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK.


EXPECTED IMPACTS WITHIN THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

RODRIGUES :
- VERY ROUGH SEAS POSSIBLE 4M FROM FRIDAY EVENING TO SATURDAY.=

理可的呆萌呆毛

萬宜般的中心置換，就不知道有沒有萬宜的命了。。。。

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 301247
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/7/20242025
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7

2.A POSITION 2025/01/30 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.6 S / 70.2 E
(SIXTEEN    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 295 SW: 215 NW: 215

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/31 00 UTC: 16.7 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 305 SW: 230 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 100

24H: 2025/01/31 12 UTC: 16.7 S / 65.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 315 SW: 240 NW: 175

36H: 2025/02/01 00 UTC: 17.1 S / 63.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 325 SW: 240 NW: 175

48H: 2025/02/01 12 UTC: 17.8 S / 61.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 325 SW: 250 NW: 185

60H: 2025/02/02 00 UTC: 18.7 S / 59.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE

72H: 2025/02/02 12 UTC: 19.5 S / 56.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/02/03 12 UTC: 20.1 S / 52.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE

120H: 2025/02/04 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 48.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 370 SW: 285 NW: 215

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.0 CI=2.5-

AFTER A PEAK OF IMPROVEMENT IN ITS STRUCTURE EARLY IN THE MORNING,
SYSTEM NAO7 SUFFERED OF THE EASTERLY SHEAR, LEAVING THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CLEARLY VISIBLE IN VISIBLE IMAGERY. AT 12UTC, CONVECTION
WAS LOCATED MORE THAN 200KM WEST OF THE CENTER. IN THE ABSENCE OF NEW
DATA, SYSTEM NAO7 IS MAINTAINED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH WINDS
OF 30KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM'S CENTER WILL FORCE IT TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS. THEN, WITH A LITTLE WEAKNESS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE FURTHER
SOUTH-WEST FROM SATURDAY, TAKING IT TOWARDS THE GREATER MASCAREIGNES.
THE LATEST RSMC FORECAST IS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE NORTHERLY THAN THE
PREVIOUS ONE. IN FACT, THE GUIDANCE HAS TENDED TO SHIFT NORTHWARDS
OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS, PARTICULARLY IFS FROM 00Z. SO THERE IS STILL
A LOT OF DISPERSION ON THE TRACK.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE MAIN OBSTACLE TO SYSTEM INTENSIFICATION IS
THE PRESENCE OF STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR (30KT ANALYZED BY CIMSS AT 06Z)
AND A LACK OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, THE
SHEAR COULD EASE SLIGHTLY, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY INTO A
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER, THE DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM
LIMITS THIS INTENSIFICATION CONSIDERABLY. THERE IS STILL A SMALL
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING FOR A TRANSITION
TO THE STORM STAGE. THEN, FROM SATURDAY ONWARDS, SHEAR AND DRY AIR
AROUND THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM TAKE OVER AGAIN, AND A WEAKENING
SHOULD SET IN BEFORE IT PASSES CLOSE TO THE MASCAREIGNES. IN THE
LONGER TERM, A TIMID REINTENSIFICATION REMAINS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK.

THE SYSTEM DOES NOT POSE A THREAT TO INHABITED LAND WITHIN THE NEXT
72 HOURS.=