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本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2025-2-4 05:45 编辑
WTXS32 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) WARNING NR 005
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 17.1S 92.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 92.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 18.0S 89.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 18.7S 87.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 19.3S 85.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 19.8S 83.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 20.5S 79.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 21.7S 74.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 22.9S 71.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 17.3S 91.5E.
03FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 405
NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
031800Z IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS
26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z AND 042100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 11S (FAIDA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
- WDXS32 PGTW 032100
- MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
- SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) WARNING NR
- 005//
- RMKS/
- 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
- 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
- SUMMARY:
- INITIAL POSITION: 17.1S 92.1E
- INITIAL INTENSITY: 70 KTS
- GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 405 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS
- MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KTS
- SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 26 FEET
- SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
- ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TIGHTLY
- WRAPPING SPIRAL BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TC 13S
- (VINCE). THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLCC) IS FULLY OBSCURED AT THE
- TIME OF THE FORECAST, HOWEVER A 031223Z SAR IMAGE DEPICTS A LOW-LEVEL
- REGION OF CALM WINDS, INDICATIVE OF AN EYE FORMATION. ENVIRONMENTAL
- CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE, WITH WARM (26-27 C) SEA
- SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTWARD OUTFLOW, WHILE
- THE CONVECTION IS PUSHED WESTWARD BY THE MODERATE 15-20 KTS
- EASTERLY SHEAR. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM
- CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 031223Z SAR EXTRAPOLATION, CONSISTENT WITH
- THE CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KTS IS
- ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT
- PASS, IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE DVORAK AGENCY FIXES AND AUTOMATED
- ESTIMATED FIXES LISTED BELOW.
- INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 031224Z SAR DATA
- CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
- RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST.
- AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
- PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
- KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS
- DEMS: T4.0 - 65 KTS
- APRF: T4.5 - 77 KTS
- CIMSS SATCON: 73 KTS AT 031641Z
- CIMSS ADT: 49 KTS AT 031730Z
- CIMSS AIDT: 57 KTS AT 032000Z
- CIMSS D-PRINT: 85 KTS AT 031800Z
- FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
- VWS: 15-20 KTS
- SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
- OUTFLOW: STRONG WESTWARD
- ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
- INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
- INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
- INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
- 3. FORECAST REASONING.
- SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
- THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
- FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 13S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
- WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD, ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
- SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AS THE ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS ARE PREDICTED TO
- REMAIN CONSISTENTLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
- MAINTAIN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS, FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF
- SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION. BY TAU 96, TC 13S WILL ENCOUNTER A PATCH OF
- WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE STEERING STR TO THE SOUTH IS
- EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WHILE THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO
- INCREASE.
- THE INCREASE IN DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL IMPROVE THE OUTFLOW, THEREFORE
- THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR INTENSIFICATION TO 85 KTS BY THE END
- OF
- THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, IF THE STR TO THE SOUTH WEAKENS MORE
- THAN FORECASTED AND TC 13S TAKES A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK, IT WILL
- ENCOUNTER COOLER SSTS, WHICH WILL STALL ITS FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
- MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
- THROUGHOUT TAU 96, WITH CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 100 NM. PAST TAU 96,
- THE GUIDANCE DIVERGES, WITH SOME AIDS (ECMWF, ECENS) SUGGESTING A
- MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK, WHILE OTHERS (HAFS, GFS, GEFS) TRACKING MORE
- WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. THOSE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TRACK GUIDANCE LEAD
- HOWEVER TO A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT SPREAD OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
- MAJORITY OF THE AVAILABLE DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUGGEST AN UPTICK IN
- INTENSITY BETWEEN TAUS 72 AND 120, WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
- OUTLIER BEING THE HAFS GUIDANCE TAKING THE PEAK INTENSITY AS HIGH
- AS 130 KTS. JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS THEREFORE ASSESSED WITH
- MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGH TAU 72, AND LOW CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER,
- THROUGHOUT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
- TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
- TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
- INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
- INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
- NNNN
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楼主: qiqi
发表于 2025-2-3 11:05
