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本帖最后由 yhh 于 2025-3-26 11:30 编辑
WTXS31 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 17.8S 105.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 105.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 17.9S 103.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 17.6S 101.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 17.4S 99.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 17.3S 97.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 18.1S 92.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 19.4S 88.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 21.9S 85.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 104.7E.
26MAR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
565 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 260000Z IS 990 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
260900Z, 261500Z, 262100Z AND 270300Z.
//
NNNN
- WDXS31 PGTW 260300
- MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
- SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY) WARNING
- NR 007//
- RMKS/
- 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
- 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
- SUMMARY:
- INITIAL POSITION: 17.8S 105.3E
- INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
- GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 565 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH,
- AUSTRALIA
- MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KTS
- SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET
- SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
- ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN
- INCREASINGLY MORE SYMMETRICAL CONVECTIVE CANOPY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
- (TC) 27S (COURTNEY). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
- CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 252330Z F16 SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS, SHOWING
- CONSOLIDATING CONVECTIVE BANDING, WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL
- CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), IDENTIFIED THROUGH 91 GHZ AND 37 GHZ
- CHANNELS. THE SYSTEM REMAINS VERTICALLY TILTED, HOWEVER UPPER-LEVEL
- CONSOLIDATION INDICATES SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IN THE STRUCTURE OF
- THE VORTEX. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO
- FURTHER INTENSIFICATION, WITH LOW (10-15 KTS) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL
- WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST),
- MODERATE EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AMPLIFIED BY PLENTY OF
- AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH
- MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY DVORAK AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY
- ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW, AS WELL AS RECENT IMPROVEMENT IN THE STRUCTURE
- OF THE SYSTEM.
- INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
- CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
- CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST
- AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
- PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
- KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
- DEMS: T3.0 - 45 KTS
- CIMSS SATCON: 53 KTS AT 260000Z
- CIMSS ADT: 53 KTS AT 260000Z
- CIMSS AIDT: 41 KTS AT 260000Z
- CIMSS D-MINT: 44 KTS AT 252330Z
- CIMSS D-PRINT: 48 KTS AT 260000Z
- FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
- VWS: 10-15 KTS
- SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
- OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
- ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
- INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
- INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
- INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
- 3. FORECAST REASONING.
- SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED STRUCTURE OF
- THE VORTEX LEADING TO PEAK INTENSITY INCREASE TO 85 KTS.
- FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC COURTNEY IS FORECAST TO GENERALLY TRACK
- WESTWARD, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A STR TO THE SOUTH. AN
- UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS ABOUT TO PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, BUT
- IS NOT FORECAST TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT EFFECT, AS ANOTHER STR QUICKLY
- BUILDS BEHIND IT AND ASSUMES THE STEERING. TC 27S WILL THEN TRANSIT
- ALONG THE NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE, EVENTUALLY
- MAKING A POLEWARD TURN, ROUNDING THE AXIS OF THE STR. INTENSITY
- FORECAST REMAINS A CHALLENGE, AS THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERS A
- SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED SPREAD OF ESTIMATED WIND SPEED MAXIMA. TC 27S
- IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING AND INTENSIFYING THROUGH TAU 96,
- WHILE REACHING PEAK INTENSITY OF 85-90 KTS. CONTRIBUTING FACTORS
- INCLUDE STRUCTURAL IMPROVEMENTS IDENTIFIED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED F16
- SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGERY, COMBINED WITH THE DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE,
- WHICH CAN BE OBSERVED ON THE 251800Z GFS DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUN, AS
- FAR OUT AS TAU 96. AFTERWARDS, TC COURTNEY IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER
- COOLER SST, WHICH COMBINED WITH INCREASING DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL
- CONTRIBUTE TOWARD WEAKENING.
- MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS ASSESSED WITH
- MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CROSS-TRACK
- SPREAD AT TAU 72 IS LESS THAN 60 NM, INCREASING TO 130 NM BY THE
- END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, INDICATING GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE
- MODELS IN REGARD TO THE DOMINATING STEERING MECHANISM. GOOD
- CROSS-TRACK CONSENSUS IS OFFSET HOWEVER BY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
- ALONG-TRACK SPREAD OF 220 NM AT TAU 72, AND 270 NM AT TAU 120. THE
- SLOWEST MODEL REMAINS NAVGEM AND JTWC TRACK IS LAID CLOSE, BUT
- SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, IN AN EFFORT TO
- OFFSET THE LESS LIKELY GUIDANCE, AS THE FASTER MODELS VERIFIED
- BETTER OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, INTENSITY
- ASSESSMENT REMAINS THE MAJOR CHALLENGE WITH A CURRENT PEAK
- INTENSITY SPREAD OF 55 KTS, WITH COAMPS-TC PREDICTING 60 KTS AT TAU
- 12, AND HAFS GOING AS HIGH AS 115 KTS. JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
- ASSESSED ON THE HIGHER END OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, AS THE
- ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS STRUCTURAL IMPROVEMENT OF THE VORTEX.
- ADDITIONALLY, ONE OF THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) AIDS (FRIA)
- INDICATES 67 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR 25 KT INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
- 24 HOURS. GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT GUIDANCE DISAGREEMENT THROUGHOUT
- THE FORECAST PERIOD, JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ASSESSED WITH LOW
- CONFIDENCE.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
- TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
- TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
- INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW
- INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
- NNNN
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楼主: 1007圆规
发表于 2025-3-26 04:35
发表于 2025-3-26 10:00
