南半球各类图像自动更新暨非扰动云团专帖（2024年7月－2025年6月）

Leonardo

ECMWF 00Z系集，对南印度洋有明显反应

renzhetegong

AWIO20 FMEE 011154
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE:  01/12/2024 AT 1200 UTC

On the easternmost parts of the basin :
Over the coming week, once ROBYN has disappeared, the strengthening of the polar convergence over the basin's far east should promote the development of one or several low pressure circulations within the NET. One circulation could experience favorable conditions for development, and could become a tropical storm. However, equatorial convergence and shear could limit its potential. In addition to environmental uncertainties, it should also be noted that this low could be located in the Australian area. The risk is therefore still limited for the next 5 days.  

The likelihood of the formation or the entry of a moderate tropical storm on the easternmost parts of the basin becomes low from Friday.

pocketbox

Tropical Low 02U
Tropical Low 02U may form later this week

• A tropical low (02U) may form in the Timor Sea or adjacent areas late this week.
  
• If it forms, 02U could move towards the west to southwest and may be located over water to the north or west of the Kimberley over the weekend, and to the north of the east Pilbara coast by next Monday.
  
• 02U has a chance of developing from next Saturday if it remains over water.
  
  

Last updated
4 hours ago, 11:37 pm UTC

Leonardo

ECMWF 06Z系集，强度略微调强，出现了红线

pocketbox

Tropical Low 02U
Tropical Low 02U may form later this week off northern WA with increasing chance of development early next week.

• A tropical low (02U) may form north of WA in the Timor Sea or adjacent areas late this week.
• If it forms, 02U is likely to move towards the west to the southwest and may be located over water to the north of the Kimberley over the weekend, moving towards being north of the Pilbara coast next Monday and Tuesday.
• 02U has a low risk of becoming a tropical cyclone from next Saturday. If it remains over water there increasing prospects of becoming a tropical cyclone by next Tuesday.
  

Last updated
5 hours ago, 11:50 pm UTC





Tropical Low 04U
Tropical Low 04U may form north of the Australian region this week

• A tropical low, 04U, may form to the west of Java, north of 10S (outside of the Australian region), during Wednesday or Thursday.
• There is a Low risk that 04U develops to tropical cyclone intensity from late Thursday onwards.
• If 04U forms it is likely to move towards the southwest into the Australian region over the weekend.
• There is a slight chance that 04U could affect Cocos (Keeling) Islands from late weekend and early next week.
  

Last updated
4 hours ago, 11:59 pm UTC

pocketbox

Tropical Low 02U
Tropical Low 02U to form off northern WA with moderate risk of being a tropical cyclone early next week.

• A tropical low (02U) may form north of WA in the Timor Sea or adjacent areas later this week.
• The most likely track is towards the west to southwest, to be located over water to the north or west of the Kimberley over the weekend, and to the north of the Pilbara coast by next Monday.
• 02U has a Low risk of becoming a tropical cyclone from Saturday increasing to Moderate from later Monday and on Tuesday.
• The risk of impacts to coastal communities of the Pilbara and Kimberley will be monitored in coming days.
  

Last updated
an hour ago, 09:03 am UTC




Tropical Low 04U
Tropical Low 04U may form north of the Australian region this week

• A tropical low, 04U, may form to the west of Java, north of 10S (outside of the Australian region), during Wednesday or Thursday.
• There is a Low risk that 04U develops to tropical cyclone intensity from late Thursday onwards.
• If 04U forms it is likely to move towards the southwest into the Australian region over the weekend.
• There is a slight chance that 04U could affect Cocos (Keeling) Islands from late weekend and early next week.
  

Last updated
2 hours ago, 08:14 am UTC

Leonardo

ECMWF 06Z系集

pocketbox

Tropical Low 02U
Tropical Low 02U to form off northern WA with moderate risk of being a tropical cyclone early next week.

• A tropical low (02U) may form north of WA in the Timor Sea or adjacent areas towards the weekend.
• The most likely track is towards the west southwest or southwest, to be located over water to the north or northwest of the Kimberley over the weekend, and to the north of the Pilbara coast by next Monday.
• 02U has a Low risk of becoming a tropical cyclone from Saturday increasing to Moderate from later Monday with an increasing chance over following days.
• The risk of impacts to coastal communities of the Pilbara and Kimberley will be monitored in coming days.
  

Last updated
2 hours ago, 12:13 am UTC


Tropical Low 04U
Tropical Low 04U may form north of the Australian region this week

• A tropical low, 04U, may form to the west of Java, north of 10S (outside of the Australian region), during Thursday or Friday.
• There is a Low risk that 04U develops to tropical cyclone intensity from Friday onwards.
• If 04U forms it is likely to move towards the southwest into the Australian region over the weekend.
• There is a slight chance that 04U could affect Cocos (Keeling) Islands from late weekend and early next week.
  

Last updated
3 hours ago, 11:21 pm UTC

Tropical lows

Today 12:00 pm

Tomorrow 12:00 am

Tomorrow 12:00 pm

Fri 6  Dec 12:00 am

Fri 6  Dec 12:00 pm

Sat 7  Dec 12:00 am

Sat 7  Dec 12:00 pm

Sun 8  Dec 12:00 am

Sun 8  Dec 12:00 pm

Mon 9  Dec 12:00 am

Mon 9  Dec 12:00 pm

Tue 10  Dec 12:00 am

Tue 10  Dec 12:00 pm

Wed 11  Dec 12:00 am

Tropical Low 02U

null (None)

null (None)

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

5 (Low)

10 (Low)

10 (Low)

15 (Low)

25 (Moderate)

25 (Moderate)

25 (Moderate)

35 (Moderate)

Tropical Low 04U

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

5 (Low)

5 (Low)

10 (Low)

10 (Low)

10 (Low)

10 (Low)

10 (Low)

5 (Low)

5 (Low)

5 (Low)

1 (Very Low)