中东太／北大各类图像自动更新暨非扰动云团专帖（2024年）

ygsj24

748
ABPZ20 KNHC 300509
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Jul 29 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southern Mexico (EP94):
Satellite images indicate that an area of low pressure located a
few hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico continues
to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical
depression is very likely to form within the next couple of days.
The system is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at 10
to 15 mph during the next several days, remaining offshore of the
southern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Western East Pacific:
A tropical wave located well to the southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California Peninsula continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is
possible during the middle and latter parts of the week while it
moves westward to west-northwestward at about 10 mph across the
western portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of
Central America and southern Mexico later this week. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression is likely to form towards the end of the
week or this weekend. The system is forecast to move westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next several days,
remaining offshore.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301753
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Jul 30 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southern Mexico (EP94):
Shower and thunderstorm activity is showing signs of organization
with an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of
the southern coast of Mexico. However, recently received satellite
wind data suggests the system does not yet possess a well-defined
center. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further
development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to
form over the next day or two. The system is forecast to move
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next
several days, remaining offshore of the southern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Western East Pacific:
An area of low pressure has developed well to the southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula, and recent shower and
thunderstorm activity associated with the system is showing some
signs of organization. Some additional development of this system is
possible and a tropical depression could form by the end of this
week. This system is forecast to move slowly westward at 5 to 10
mph, remaining over the western portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of
Central America and southern Mexico later this week. Afterwards,
environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end
of the week or this weekend. The system is forecast to move westward
to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next several days,
remaining offshore.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 302345
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Jul 30 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southern Mexico (EP94):
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to show signs of
organization with an area of low pressure located a few hundred
miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for further development of this system,
and a tropical depression is expected to form over the next day or
so. The system is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph during the next several days, remaining offshore of the
southern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Western East Pacific (EP95):
An area of low pressure has developed well to the southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula, and shower and
thunderstorm activity associated with the system continues to show
some signs of organization. Additional development of this system is
possible, and a tropical depression could form by the end of this
week. This system is forecast to move slowly westward at 5 to 10
mph, remaining over the western portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of
Central America and southern Mexico later this week. Afterwards,
environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end
of the week or this weekend. The system is forecast to move westward
to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next several days,
remaining offshore.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

lvrenwei

WXTLIST WMO=ABNT20
ABNT20 KNHC 310546                                              2024213 0546
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Jul 31 2024
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Near the Greater Antilles and the Bahamas:
A large tropical wave located a couple of hundred miles east of the
Lesser Antilles is producing some shower and thunderstorm activity.
Environmental conditions are forecast to gradually become more
conducive for development while the system moves generally
west-northwestward over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean, and a
tropical depression could form late this week or over the weekend
while the system is in the vicinity of the Greater Antilles,
Bahamas, or near Florida.  Interests in the Greater Antilles, the
Bahamas, and the southeastern U.S. should monitor the progress of
this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
WXTLIST: done

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 311746
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Jul 31 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Depression Three-E, located a few hundred miles southwest
of Manzanillo, Mexico.

Western East Pacific (EP95):
Shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized in association
with an area of low pressure located more than one thousand miles to
the southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
Conditions appear to be only marginally favorable for some
gradual development of this system over the next couple of
days. This system is forecast to move slowly westward at 5 to 10
mph, remaining over the western portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles to the south of
Central America is producing some disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. An area of low pressure is expected to form from this
system later this week where environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development. A tropical depression is likely
to form by this weekend as the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next several days,
remaining offshore.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Three-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Three-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Landsea/Papin

ygsj24

341
ABPZ20 KNHC 010518
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Jul 31 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Carlotta, located a few hundred miles west-southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico.

Western East Pacific (EP95):
An area of low pressure located more than one thousand miles to the
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
is producing some disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity to
the west of its center. Environmental conditions appear marginal for
some development of this system during the next couple of days while
it moves slowly westward at 5 to 10 mph. By this weekend,
environmental conditions are forecast to become more unfavorable,
and further development is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles to the south of
Central America is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
An area of low pressure is expected to form from this system during
the next couple of days, and thereafter environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development. A tropical depression is
likely to form by this weekend while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining well offshore of the
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Carlotta are issued under
WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Carlotta are issued under
WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 010529
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Aug 1 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Atlantic and Eastern Gulf of Mexico:
A well-defined tropical wave is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms over Puerto Rico, the Virgin
Islands, the northern Leeward Islands, and the adjacent waters of
the southwestern Atlantic and northeastern Caribbean Sea.
Development of this system is unlikely during the next couple of
days while it moves west-northwestward over portions of the Greater
Antilles. However, environmental conditions are forecast to be more
conducive for development after the wave passes the Greater
Antilles, and a tropical depression could form this weekend or early
next week over the eastern Gulf of Mexico or far southwestern
Atlantic Ocean, including in the vicinity of Florida. Interests
across the Greater Antilles, Bahamas, and Florida should continue to
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 011135
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 1 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Atlantic and Eastern Gulf of Mexico:
A well-defined tropical wave is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms over Hispaniola, Puerto
Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the adjacent waters of the
southwestern Atlantic and northeastern Caribbean Sea. Development of
this system should be slow to occur during the next couple of days
while it moves west-northwestward over portions of the Greater
Antilles. However, environmental conditions are forecast to be more
conducive for development after the wave passes the Greater
Antilles, and a tropical depression could form this weekend or early
next week over the eastern Gulf of Mexico or near the Florida
Peninsula. Interests across the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and
Florida should continue to monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011135
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Aug 1 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Carlotta, located a few hundred miles west-southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico.

Western East Pacific (EP95):
An area of low pressure located more than one thousand miles to the
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity
to the west of its center. Environmental conditions appear marginal
for some development of this system during the next couple of days
while it moves slowly westward at 5 to 10 mph. By this weekend,
environmental conditions are forecast to become more unfavorable,
and further development is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles to the south of
Central America is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
An area of low pressure is expected to form from this system during
the next day or two, and thereafter environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development. A tropical depression is likely
to form by this weekend or early next week while the system moves
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining well
offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Carlotta are issued under
WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Carlotta are issued under
WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Papin

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011745
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Aug 1 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Carlotta, located a few hundred miles west-southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico.

Western East Pacific (EP95):
An area of low pressure located more than a thousand miles to the
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity
around its center. Environmental conditions appear marginal for some
development of this system during the next couple of days while it
drifts slowly westward. By this weekend, environmental conditions
are forecast to become increasingly unfavorable, and further
development is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles to the south of
Central America is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
An area of low pressure is expected to form from this system during
the next day or so, and thereafter environmental conditions appear
conducive for additional development. A tropical depression is
likely to form by this weekend or early next week while the system
moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining
well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin