中东太／北大各类图像自动更新暨非扰动云团专帖（2024年）

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 021134
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Aug 2 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Carlotta, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Western East Pacific (EP95):
A broad area of low pressure located well to the west-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues
producing an area of showers and thunderstorms. Marginal
environmental conditions are expected to limit development of this
system during the next few days. The low is forecast to meander over
open waters during the next day or so, then begin moving
northeastward by late this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles to the south of
Central America and southern Mexico is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. An area of low pressure is
expected to form from this system during the next day or so, and
thereafter environmental conditions appear conducive for additional
development. A tropical depression is likely to form by late this
weekend or early next week while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, staying well offshore of the
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 032322
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Aug 3 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Carlotta, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula and on Tropical Storm
Daniel, located more than one thousand miles to the west-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

South of Southern Mexico (EP96):
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few
hundred miles south of southern Mexico continues to be associated
with a broad area of low pressure.  Environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by early next week while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, staying well offshore of the
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Well South of the Baja California Peninsula:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
are associated with another broad area of low pressure that has
formed.  Some development is possible during the next day or two
before the system interacts with the disturbance (EP96) to its
southeast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Daniel are issued under      
WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Daniel are issued under     
WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Brown

pocketbox

1. East of the Windward Islands:
A tropical wave located a few hundred miles to the east of the
Windward Islands is producing an area of showers and thunderstorms.
Some slow development of this system is possible over the next week
as the system moves quickly westward at around 20 mph, crossing the
Windward Islands early this week and moving into the central and
western Caribbean by the mid to latter part of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 042352
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Debby, located over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

East of the Windward Islands:
A tropical wave located a couple of hundred miles east of the
Windward Islands continues to produce an area of showers and
thunderstorms, and earlier satellite wind data showed winds of 30
to 35 mph just north of the wave axis. Environmental conditions
appear generally favorable for some slow development over the next
week while the system moves quickly westward at around 20 mph,
crossing the Windward Islands Monday morning and moving into the
central and western Caribbean by the middle to latter part of this
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Roberts

pocketbox

1. East of the Windward Islands:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
near the Windward Islands have decreased and become less organized
since yesterday. Any development of this system should be slow to
occur during the next couple of days while the system moves westward
over the eastern Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions are
expected to become more conducive for development later this week as
the system moves across the western Caribbean Sea or the southern
Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

红豆棒冰冰

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Aug 6 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Debby, located near the Georgia coastline.

1. Western Caribbean Sea and Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
over the east-central Caribbean Sea have changed little this
morning.  Any development of this system should be slow to occur
during the next couple of days while it moves westward over the
central Caribbean Sea.  Environmental conditions are expected to
become more conducive for development later this week as the system
moves across the western Caribbean Sea or the southern Gulf of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.


Forecaster Hogsett

红豆棒冰冰

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Debby, located near the Georgia and South Carolina coastline.

1. Western Caribbean Sea and Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
over the east-central Caribbean Sea have diminished in coverage and
intensity since this morning.  Any development of this system should
be slow to occur during the next couple of days while it moves
westward over the central Caribbean Sea.  Environmental conditions
are expected to become more conducive for development later this
week as the system moves across the western Caribbean Sea or the
southern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.


Forecaster Hurley

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 062333
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Debby, located just offshore of the Georgia and South
Carolina coastline.

Western Caribbean Sea and Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
over the central Caribbean Sea remain limited.  Any development of
this system should be slow to occur while it moves over the western
Caribbean Sea and then interacts with Central America through the
end of the week.  The northern portion of this tropical wave could
reach the southwestern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend, where
environmental conditions appear marginally favorable for slow
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Beven

pocketbox

1. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
over the southwestern Caribbean Sea remain disorganized.  The
northern portion of this tropical wave could reach the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico over the weekend, but any development should be slow
to occur.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

红豆棒冰冰

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Aug 7 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Debby, located just offshore of the Georgia and South
Carolina coastline.

1. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the
southwestern Caribbean sea are associated with a tropical wave.  
The northern portion of this tropical wave could reach the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend, however, any
development of this system should be slow to occur.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.


Forecaster Roberts