中东太／北大各类图像自动更新暨非扰动云团专帖（2024年）

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 151136
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Aug 15 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located about a thousand
miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands are associated with a
trough of low pressure.  Environmental conditions appear conducive
for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression
could form this weekend or early next week while moving
west-northwestward at about 10 mph.  Information on this system can
also be found in the Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central
Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure will likely form during the next couple of
days well offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico.  
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this
system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form early next
week while moving toward the west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

&&
The Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin can be
found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP and WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and on
the web at hurricanes.gov

$$
Forecaster Berg

pocketbox

ZCZC HFOTWOCP ALL
TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
200 AM HST Thu Aug 15 2024

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

1. Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located about a thousand
miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands are associated with a
trough of low pressure.  Environmental conditions appear conducive
for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression
could form this weekend or early next week while moving
west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.



Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected during the next 7 days.

Forecaster Jelsema

红豆棒冰冰

ZCZC HFOTWOCP ALL
TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
800 AM HST Thu Aug 15 2024

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

1. Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located about a thousand
miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands are associated with a
trough of low pressure, which has moved into the Central Pacific
Hurricane Center\'s area of responsibility.  Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression could form this weekend or early next
week while moving west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.



Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected during the next 7 days.

Forecaster Kino

红豆棒冰冰

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Aug 15 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located about a thousand
miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands are associated with a
trough of low pressure, which has moved into the Central Pacific
Hurricane Center\'s area of responsibility.  Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression could form this weekend or early next week
while moving west-northwestward at about 10 mph.  All future
information on this system will be found in the Tropical Weather
Outlook for the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

2. Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
a few hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico.  
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development
of this system during the next few days, and a tropical depression
could form early next week while moving west-northwestward away
from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.


The Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin can be
found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP and WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and on
the web at hurricanes.gov

Forecaster Berg

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 152324
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Aug 15 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles
south of the southwestern coast of Mexico are associated with a
tropical wave. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system during the next few days, and a tropical
depression is likely to form early next week while moving
west-northwestward away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Western Portion of the East Pacific:
A broad area of low pressure could form by this weekend well to the
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
Some slow development of this system is possible during the early
and middle parts of next week while it moves generally westward
across the western portion of the East Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

pocketbox

ZCZC HFOTWOCP ALL
TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
200 PM HST Thu Aug 15 2024

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

1. Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located about a thousand
miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands are associated with a
broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear
marginally conducive for some development of this system this
weekend or early next week while moving west-northwestward at
about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.



Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected during the next 7 days.

Forecaster Kino

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 160532
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Aug 15 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a
few hundred miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico are
associated with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development of this system during the next few
days, and a tropical depression is likely to form early next week
while it moves west-northwestward away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Western Portion of the East Pacific:
A broad area of low pressure could form by this weekend well to the
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
Some slow development of this system is possible during the early
and middle parts of next week while it moves generally westward
across the western portion of the East Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

红豆棒冰冰

ZCZC HFOTWOCP ALL
TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
800 PM HST Thu Aug 15 2024

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

1. Approximately 1050 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms are associated with a
broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear
marginally conducive for some development of this system this
weekend or early next week while moving west-northwestward at
about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.



Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected during the next 7 days.

Forecaster M Ballard

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 161143
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Aug 16 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a
few hundred miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico are
associated with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development of this system during the next few
days, and a tropical depression is likely to form early next week
while it moves west-northwestward away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Western Portion of the East Pacific:
A broad area of low pressure could form by this weekend well to the
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
Some slow development of this system is possible during the early
and middle parts of next week while it moves generally westward
across the western portion of the East Pacific and into the Central
Pacific basin.  Information on this system's development can also
be found in the Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific
basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

&&
The Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin can be
found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP and WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and on
the web at hurricanes.gov

$$
Forecaster Berg

pocketbox

ZCZC HFOTWOCP ALL
TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
200 AM HST Fri Aug 16 2024

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

1. Approximately 1050 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms are associated with a
broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear
marginally conducive for some development of this system this
weekend or early next week while moving west-northwestward at
about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.


2. Approximately 1450 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii:
A broad area of low pressure could form by this weekend well to the
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.
Some slow development of this system is possible during the early
and middle parts of next week while it moves generally westward
across the western portion of the East Pacific and into the Central
Pacific basin.  
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.



Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected during the next 7 days.

Forecaster M Ballard