中东太／北大各类图像自动更新暨非扰动云团专帖（2024年）

红豆棒冰冰

ZCZC HFOTWOCP ALL
TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
800 AM HST Fri Aug 16 2024

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

1. Approximately 700 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms are associated with a
broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear
marginally conducive for some development of this system this
weekend or early next week while moving westward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.


2. Approximately 1350 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii:
An area of low pressure could form by early next week more than a
thousand miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.  Some slow development of this system is
possible, and a tropical depression could form during the middle to
latter part of next week while it moves generally westward across
the western portion of the East Pacific and into the Central
Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.



Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected during the next 7 days.

Forecaster Foster

红豆棒冰冰

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Aug 16 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred
miles off the southwestern coast of Mexico are associated with a
tropical wave.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this system during the next few days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form early next week while it moves
west-northwestward at about 10 mph away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

2. Western Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form by early next week more than a
thousand miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.  Some slow development of this system is
possible, and a tropical depression could form during the middle to
latter part of next week while it moves generally westward across
the western portion of the East Pacific and into the Central Pacific
basin.  Information on this system's development can also be found
in the Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.


The Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin can be
found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP and WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and on
the web at hurricanes.gov

Forecaster Berg

ygsj24

ygsj24

245
ABPZ20 KNHC 162334
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Aug 16 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Well Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP99):
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles off the
southwestern coast of Mexico is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms to the west of its center.
Upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for gradual
development of this system over the weekend, and a tropical
depression is likely to form early next week while it moves
west-northwestward at about 10 mph across the central portion of the
East Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Western Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form this weekend or early next week
more than one thousand miles west-southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula. Some slow development of this system
is possible, and a tropical depression could form during the middle
part of next week while it moves westward to west-northwestward
across the western portion of the East Pacific and into the Central
Pacific basin. Information on this system's development can also be
found in the Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

&&
The Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin can be
found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP and WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and on
the web at hurricanes.gov

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

ygsj24

000
ACPN50 PHFO 162342
TWOCP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
200 PM HST Fri Aug 16 2024

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

Approximately 850 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms are associated with a
broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear
marginally conducive for some development of this system early
next week while moving westward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Approximately 1350 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii:
An area of low pressure could form this weekend or early next week
more than one thousand miles west-southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula. Some slow development of this system
is possible, and a tropical depression could form during the middle
part of next week while it moves westward to west-northwestward
across the western portion of the East Pacific and into the Central
Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Foster

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 170545
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Aug 16 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Well Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP99):
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles off the
southwestern coast of Mexico is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms to the west of its center.
Upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for gradual
development of this system over the weekend, and a tropical
depression is likely to form early next week while it moves
west-northwestward at about 10 mph across the central portion of the
eastern Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Western Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form this weekend or early next week
more than one thousand miles west-southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula. Slow development of this system is
anticipated, and a tropical depression will likely form during the
middle part of next week while it moves westward to
west-northwestward across the western portion of the basin and into
the Central Pacific basin. Information on this system's development
can also be found in the Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central
Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
A small area of low pressure has formed well southeast of the
Hawaiian islands. Some development of this system is possible this
weekend into early next week while it moves across the western
portion of the East Pacific and into the Central Pacific basin. By
the middle of next week, the system could merge with a larger system
to the east. Information on this system's development can also be
found in the Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&
The Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin can be
found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP and WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and on
the web at hurricanes.gov

$$
Forecaster Kelly

ygsj24

000
ACPN50 PHFO 170552
TWOCP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
800 PM HST Fri Aug 16 2024

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

Approximately 850 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms are associated with a
broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear
marginally conducive for some development of this system early
next week while moving westward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Approximately 1750 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii:
An area of low pressure could form this weekend or early next week
more than one thousand miles west-southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula. Slow development of this system is
anticipated, and a tropical depression will likely form during the
middle part of next week while it moves westward to
west-northwestward across the western portion of the basin and into
the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Approximately 1200 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii:
A small area of low pressure has formed well southeast of the
Hawaiian islands. Some development of this system is possible this
weekend into early next week while it moves across the western
portion of the East Pacific and into the Central Pacific basin. By
the middle of next week, the system could merge with a larger
system to the east.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster M Ballard

红豆棒冰冰

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Aug 17 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Well Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP99):
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles off the
southwestern coast of Mexico continues to produce a distinct area of
showers and thunderstorms that are showing signs of organization.
Upper-level winds are forecast to be generally conducive for
additional development of this system through the weekend, and a
tropical depression is likely to form in the next couple of days
while it moves west-northwestward at about 10 to 15 mph across the
central portion of the eastern Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

2. Western Portion of the East Pacific:
Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are associated with a
broad trough of low pressure located more than one thousand miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
While this system may interact with another area of low pressure to
its west-southwest over the next several days, some gradual
development of this system is forecasted if it remains the dominant
disturbance. A tropical depression is likely form during the middle
part of next week while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward over the western portion of the basin and into
the Central Pacific basin by the end of the week. Information on
this system's development can also be found in the Tropical Weather
Outlook for the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

3. Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
A small area of low pressure located well southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands is associated with some disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible this
weekend into early next week while it moves slowly over the western
portion of the East Pacific or Central Pacific basin. By the middle
of next week, this system could merge with a larger system
developing to its east. Information on this system's development can
also be found in the Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central
Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


The Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin can be
found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP and WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and on
the web at hurricanes.gov

Forecaster Papin

红豆棒冰冰

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Aug 17 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Well Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP99):
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles off the
southwestern coast of Mexico continues to show signs of
organization. Upper-level winds are forecast to become more
conducive for additional development of this system through the
weekend, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the next
couple of days while it moves west-northwestward at about 10 to 15
mph across the central portion of the eastern Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

2. Western Portion of the East Pacific:
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are associated with a broad
trough of low pressure located more than one thousand miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
While this system may interact with another area of low pressure to
its west-southwest over the next several days, some gradual
development of this system is forecasted if it becomes the dominant
disturbance. A tropical depression is likely form during the middle
part of next week while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward over the western portion of the basin and into
the Central Pacific basin by the end of the week. Information on
this system's development can also be found in the Tropical Weather
Outlook for the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

3. Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
A small area of low pressure located well southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands is associated with some disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible this
weekend into early next week while it moves slowly over the western
portion of the East Pacific or Central Pacific basin. By the middle
of next week, this system could merge with a larger system
developing to its east. Information on this system's development can
also be found in the Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central
Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


The Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin can be
found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP and WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and on
the web at hurricanes.gov

Forecaster Bucci

红豆棒冰冰

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Aug 17 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Well Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP99):
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles off the
southwestern coast of Mexico is producing showers and thunderstorms
that are becoming better organized. Upper-level winds are forecast
to become more conducive for additional development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form in the next couple of days while the
system moves west-northwestward at about 10 to 15 mph across the
central portion of the eastern Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

2. Western Portion of the East Pacific:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms are associated with a broad
trough of low pressure located well west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.  While this system may
interact with another disturbance to its west-southwest over the
next several days, some gradual development is forecast assuming it
becomes the dominant disturbance.  A tropical depression is likely
to form during the middle part of next week while the system moves
westward to west-northwestward over the western portion of the basin
and into the Central Pacific basin by the end of the week.
Information on this system's development can also be found in the
Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

3. Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
A small area of low pressure located well southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands is associated with some disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible early
next week while it moves slowly over the western portion of the East
Pacific or in the Central Pacific basin. By the middle of next week,
this disturbance could merge with an area of low pressure developing
to its east. Information on this system's development can also be
found in the Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


The Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin can be
found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP and WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and on
the web at hurricanes.gov

Forecaster Kelly