中东太／北大各类图像自动更新暨非扰动云团专帖（2024年）

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181148
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Aug 18 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Well Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP99):
An area of low pressure located several hundred miles off the
southwestern coast of Mexico is producing showers and thunderstorms
that continue to show signs of organization. Recently-received
microwave satellite imagery also suggests the system is developing a
well-defined center, and if these trends continue, a tropical
depression is likely to form as soon as later today. The system is
forecast to move west-northwestward at about 10 to 15 mph across the
central portion of the eastern Pacific during the next several
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Western Portion of the East Pacific:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms are associated with a broad
trough of low pressure located well west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.  This system is forecast to
interact with another disturbance to its west-southwest over the
next several days, which could limit additional development if this
system does not become the dominant disturbance. Regardless, a
tropical depression could still form during the middle part of the
week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward over the
western portion of the East Pacific basin before it possibly merges
with the disturbance currently located further west. Information on
this system's development can also be found in the Tropical Weather
Outlook for the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
Another area of low pressure located well southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands is currently associated with some disorganized showers and
thunderstorms on its western side. This disturbance is forecast to
interact with the disturbance located to its east. If this system
becomes the dominant disturbance, some gradual development is
possible and a tropical depression could form by the middle part of
this week while it initially moves slowly over the western portion
of the East Pacific.  A faster west-northwestward motion into the
Central Pacific basin is likely by the latter portion of the week.
Information on this system's development can also be found in the
Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Eastern and Central Portion of the East Pacific:
Yet another area of low pressure could form well to the south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico over the next few days. Environmental
conditions appear generally conducive for some slow development of
this system thereafter as it moves slowly west-northwestward
throughout the week into the Central portion of the East Pacific
basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&
The Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin can be
found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP and WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and on
the web at hurricanes.gov

$$
Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181728
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Aug 18 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Depression Seven-E, located well south of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
Another area of low pressure located well southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands is producing some disorganized showers and thunderstorms on
its western side. This disturbance is forecast to interact with the
disturbance located to its east. If this system becomes the dominant
disturbance, some gradual development is possible, and a tropical
depression could form by the middle part of the week while it
initially moves slowly over the western portion of the East Pacific.
A faster west-northwestward motion into the Central Pacific basin is
likely by the latter portion of the week. Information on this
system's development can also be found in the Tropical Weather
Outlook for the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Western Portion of the East Pacific:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a broad trough of low pressure located well west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.  This system is
forecast to interact with another disturbance to its west-southwest
over the next few days, which could limit additional development if
this system does not become the dominant disturbance. Regardless, a
tropical depression could still form during the middle part of the
week while the system moves generally west-northwestward before it
possibly merges with the disturbance currently located further west.
Information on this system's development can also be found in the
Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Eastern and Central Portion of the East Pacific:
Yet another area of low pressure could form well to the south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico around the middle of the week.
Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for some slow
development of this system thereafter as it moves slowly
west-northwestward into the central portion of the East Pacific
basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&
The Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin can be
found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP and WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and on
the web at hurricanes.gov

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Seven-E are issued under  
WMO header WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Seven-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Papin

pocketbox

2. Western Portion of the East Pacific:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a broad trough of low pressure located well west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.  This system is
forecast to interact with another disturbance to its west-southwest
over the next few days which could limit additional development.
Regardless, a tropical depression could still form during the middle
part of the week while the system moves generally west-northwestward
before it possibly merges with the disturbance currently located
further west. Information on this system's development can also be
found in the Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

pocketbox

2. Approximately 1800 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a broad trough of low pressure located well southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.  This system is
forecast to interact with another disturbance to its west-southwest
(EP90 mentioned above) over the next few days which could limit
additional development. A tropical depression could still form
during the middle part of the week while the system moves generally
west-northwestward before possibly merging with the disturbance
(EP90) currently located further west.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

红豆棒冰冰

ZCZC HFOTWOCP ALL
TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
800 PM HST Sun Aug 18 2024

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

1. Approximately 1300 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii (EP90):
Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization in
association with a low pressure system located well southeast  
of the Hawaiian Islands.  This disturbance is forecast to interact
with a disturbance located to its east-northeast.  If this system
becomes the dominant disturbance, some gradual development is
possible, and a tropical depression could form in the next couple
of days while it initially moves slowly over the western portion of
the East Pacific. A faster west-northwestward motion into the
Central Pacific basin is likely by the latter portion of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.


2. Approximately 1700 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association
with a broad trough of low pressure located well west-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.  This system is
forecast to interact with another disturbance to its west-southwest
over the next few days which could limit additional development.
Regardless, a tropical depression could form during the middle part
of the week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward before
it possibly merges with the disturbance currently located farther
west.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.



Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected during the next 7 days.

Forecaster Gibbs

红豆棒冰冰

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Aug 18 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gilma, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. Well East-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP90):
Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization in
association with a low pressure system located well east-southeast
of the Hawaiian Islands.  This disturbance is forecast to interact
with a disturbance located to its east-northeast.  If this system
becomes the dominant disturbance, some gradual development is
possible, and a tropical depression could form in the next couple of
days while it initially moves slowly over the western portion of the
East Pacific. A faster west-northwestward motion into the Central
Pacific basin is likely by the latter portion of the week.
Information on this system's development can also be found in the
Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

2. Western Portion of the East Pacific:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a broad trough of low pressure located well west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.  This system is
forecast to interact with another disturbance to its west-southwest
over the next few days which could limit additional development.
Regardless, a tropical depression could form during the middle part
of the week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward before
it possibly merges with the disturbance currently located farther
west.  Information on this system's development can also be found in
the Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

3. Eastern and Central Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form well to the south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico around the middle of the week.
Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for some slow
development of this system thereafter as it moves slowly
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


The Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin can be
found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP and WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and on
the web at hurricanes.gov

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Gilma are issued under  
WMO header WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Gilma are issued under
WMO header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.

Forecaster Hagen/Pasch

红豆棒冰冰

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Aug 19 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gilma, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. Well East-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP90):
An area of low pressure located well east-southeast of Hawaii
continues to show signs of becoming better organized. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development
and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple
of days. The disturbance is forecast to meander slowly northward
during the next few days, before accelerating west-northwestward
into the Central Pacific basin by the latter portion of the week.
Information on this system's development can also be found in the
Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

2. Western Portion of the East Pacific:
A broad area of shower and thunderstorm activity is located well
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
This system is forecast to move slowly toward the northwest for the
next few days, and interactions with either EP90 to its west or
Gilma to its east could limit the potential for formation.
Regardless, a tropical depression could form within the next few
days. Further development after that time will be unlikely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

3. Eastern and Central Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form well to the south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico around the middle of the week.
Environmental conditions could become conducive for some slow
development of this system thereafter as it moves slowly
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


The Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin can be
found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP and WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and on
the web at hurricanes.gov

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Gilma are issued under  
WMO header WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Gilma are issued under
WMO header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.

Forecaster D. Zelinsky

红豆棒冰冰

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Aug 19 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gilma, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. Well East-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP90):
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure located well east-southeast of Hawaii has changed little
during the past several hours. Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for development and a tropical depression is likely
to form during the next couple of days. The disturbance is forecast
to meander slowly northward or northeastward during the next few
days, before accelerating west-northwestward into the Central
Pacific basin by the latter portion of the week. Information on this
system's development can also be found in the Tropical Weather
Outlook for the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

2. Western Portion of the East Pacific:
A broad area of shower and thunderstorm activity is located well
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
This system has not become any better organized today. The
disturbance is forecast to move slowly toward the northwest for the
next few days, and interactions with either EP90 to its west or
Gilma to its east could limit the potential for formation.
Regardless, a tropical depression could form within the next few
days. Further development after that time will be unlikely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

3. Eastern and Central Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is expected to form well to the south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico by the end of this week. Environmental
conditions could become conducive for some slow development of this
system thereafter as it moves slowly west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


The Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin can be
found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP and WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and on
the web at hurricanes.gov

Forecaster D. Zelinsky/Nepaul

ygsj24

135
ABPZ20 KNHC 192337
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Aug 19 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gilma, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Well East-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP90):
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues in association with an
area of low pressure located well east-southeast of Hawaii.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
next couple of days. The disturbance is forecast to meander slowly
northward or northeastward during the next couple of days or so,
before accelerating west-northwestward into the Central Pacific
basin by the latter portion of the week. Information on this
system's development can also be found in the Tropical Weather
Outlook for the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Western Portion of the East Pacific:
A broad area of shower and thunderstorm activity is located well
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
This system is forecast to move slowly toward the northwest for the
next few days, and interactions with either EP90 to its west or
Gilma to its east could limit the potential for formation.
Regardless, a tropical depression could form within the next few
days. Further development after that time will be unlikely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Eastern and Central Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is expected to form well to the south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico by the end of this week. Environmental
conditions could become conducive for some slow development of this
system thereafter as it moves slowly west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

&&
The Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin can be
found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP and WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and on
the web at hurricanes.gov

$$
Forecaster Bucci

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 200516
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Aug 19 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gilma, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Well East-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP90):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has changed little in organization
in association with an area of low pressure located well
east-southeast of Hawaii. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
during the next day or two. The disturbance is forecast to meander
slowly northward or northeastward during the next day to two, while
interacting with or possibly combining with another disturbance
located a few hundred miles to its east-northeast. The combined
system is then forecast to accelerate west-northwestward into the
Central Pacific basin by Wednesday night. Information on this
system's development can also be found in the Tropical Weather
Outlook for the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Western Portion of the East Pacific:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has become a little better
organized in association with a broad area of low pressure located
well west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. This system is forecast to move toward the west-northwest
during the next day or two as it interacts with or possibly combines
with EP90 to its west, and a tropical depression could form within
the next few days. Further development after that time appears
unlikely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Eastern and Central Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is expected to form well to the south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico by the end of this week. Environmental
conditions should support slow development thereafter, and a
tropical depression could form over the weekend while the system
moves west-northwestward over open waters, well offshore of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

&&
The Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin can be
found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP and WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and on
the web at hurricanes.gov

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Pasch