‌罗德里格斯岛东北强热带气旋第3号“贝基”(02S.Bheki) - 风眼构建，西南行进，趋向毛里求斯 - MFR:105KT JTWC:115KT

pocketbox

WTIO30 FMEE 150650
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/3/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BHEKI)

2.A POSITION 2024/11/15 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.4 S / 75.7 E
(ELEVEN    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 185 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 60 NW: 75

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/11/15 18 UTC: 12.8 S / 74.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 270 SW: 205 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55

24H: 2024/11/16 06 UTC: 14.0 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 270 SW: 280 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

36H: 2024/11/16 18 UTC: 14.9 S / 71.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SW: 270 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2024/11/17 06 UTC: 15.6 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 250 SW: 240 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

60H: 2024/11/17 18 UTC: 16.1 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 270 SW: 250 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

72H: 2024/11/18 06 UTC: 16.5 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 270 SW: 250 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/11/19 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 66.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 270 SW: 270 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 55

120H: 2024/11/20 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 62.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 250 SW: 240 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 110 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CDO CLOUD PATTERN HAS REMAINED UNCHANGED,
WITH MARKED CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER AND VERY COLD SUMMITS. IN
THE LAST FEW MOMENTS, A WEAKNESS IN THE CLOUD PATTERN COULD SUGGEST
THE BEGINNINGS OF AN EYE. A SAR-RCM SWATH CAN PRECISELY LOCATE THE
CENTER AT 0028UTC, WITH MAXIMUM WINDS THAT SEEM A LITTLE TOO HIGH.
THE 0437UTC ASCAT SWATH ALLOWS US TO ESTIMATE RECALIBRATED MAXIMUM
WINDS OF AROUND 52KT, A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE SAR-RCM VALUES. IN
THESE CONDITIONS, BHEKI REMAINS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM WITH WINDS OF
THE ORDER OF 55KT, SHOWING A SLIGHT TILT NOTICEABLE ON THE LATEST
MICROWAVE IMAGES.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THERE ARE FEW CHANGES IN THE FORECAST: WITH THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE AT THE EASTERN END OF THE BASIN, THE
SYSTEM IS SET TO TAKE A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY COURSE THIS FRIDAY. ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BHEKI SHOULD TEMPORARILY COLLIDE WITH A NEW RIDGE
FORMING SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR, CAUSING A SLOWDOWN. AT THE END OF
THE DAY, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE SLIDING SOUTHWARDS AND A
LOWERING OF ITS MAIN FLOW, BHEKI COULD RESUME A FASTER, MORE WESTERLY
TRACK. THIS SCENARIO IS BROADLY ACCEPTED, BUT THERE IS NEVERTHELESS A
RELATIVELY WIDE DISPERSION AMONG THE MAIN MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES,
FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS. THE PRESENT FORECAST REMAINS IN LINE WITH THE
AVERAGE OF ALL THE MODELS, WITH A SLIGHT MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC REPRESENTATION, WHICH
MAINTAINS AN EVEN MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK.

SLIGHT CHANGE IN INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM, WHICH REMAINS
RATHER UNCERTAIN, DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT UNTIL THIS FRIDAY EVENING AND THE DRY
INTRUSION WHICH COULD LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF BHEKI. IN THIS
CONFIGURATION, THE INTENSITY SHOULD REMAIN CONSTANT, WITH A SLIGHT
WEAKENING EXPECTED DURING FRIDAY. FROM SATURDAY ONWARDS, THE SYSTEM
SHOULD RETURN TO FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, WITH SUFFICIENT OCEANIC
POTENTIAL TO ENABLE IT TO REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS. EARLY NEXT
WEEK, A WESTERLY SHEAR STRESS COULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF
THE SYSTEM.

IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO PREDICT ANY IMPACT ON INHABITED LAND, BUT
RODRIGUES RESIDENTS ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SYSTEM, WITH AN APPROACH TO THE SYSTEM AS CLOSE AS POSSIBLE TO
RODRIGUES WITHIN 5 DAYS.=

pocketbox

WTXS31 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BHEKI) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BHEKI) WARNING NR 003   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   150600Z --- NEAR 11.8S 75.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.8S 75.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z --- 12.9S 74.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z --- 13.9S 72.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z --- 14.9S 71.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z --- 15.6S 70.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z --- 16.5S 68.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 16.8S 66.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 17.0S 63.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 12.1S 75.1E.
15NOV24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BHEKI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
330 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 150600Z IS 974 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 22 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z AND 160900Z.
//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 150900
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BHEKI) WARNING NR
   
4. 003//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 11.8S 75.4E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 330 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 22 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
18. CYCLONE (TC) 02S (BHEKI) WITH PERSISTENT AND FLARING CONVECTION
    
19. LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER THE ASSESSED CENTER, COMPLETELY OBSCURING THE
    
20. LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
    
21. SYSTEM, CONVECTIVE FEEDER BANDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WRAPPING
    
22. CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE LLCC FROM THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
    
23. QUADRANTS AIDING IN THE CONTINUED AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF TC 02S.
    
24. ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, MODERATE DUAL-CHANNEL UPPER-LEVEL
    
25. OUTFLOW HAS ALSO BEEN OBSERVED, OFFSETTING NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL
    
26. WIND SHEAR (VWS) BETWEEN 15-20 KTS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
    
27. WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY
    
28. SHOWING CYCLONICALLY TURNING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES DIRECTLY OVER A
    
29. POTENTIAL FORMING EYE-FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
    
30. WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 150028Z RCM-1 SAR WINDSPEED IMAGE
    
31. INDICATING A SWATH OF 65 KTS LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT.
    
32. 
    
33. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SAR DATA
    
34. 
    
35. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) DIRECTLY TO THE
    
36. SOUTHEAST.
    
37. 
    
38. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
39.    PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
    
40.    KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
41.    DEMS: T4.0 - 65 KTS
    
42.    FMEE: T4.0 - 65 KTS
    
43.    CIMSS ADT: 61 KTS AT 150630Z
    
44.    CIMSS AIDT: 54 KTS AT 150630Z
    
45.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 70 KTS AT 150630Z
    
46. 
    
47. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
    
48.    VWS: 15-20 KTS
    
49.    SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
    
50.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
    
51. 
    
52. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
53.    INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
    
54.    INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
    
55.    INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
    
56. 
    
57. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
58. 
    
59. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
60. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
61. 
    
62. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 02S IS FORECASTED TO REMAIN ON A SOUTHWEST
    
63. TRACK OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
    
64. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED DIRECTLY TO THE EAST. DURING THIS PERIOD,
    
65. AN EQUATORWARD EXTENDING SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD WILL
    
66. AID IN THE SOUTHWEST MOVEMENT JUST BEFORE TAU 72 NEAR THE STR AXIS.
    
67. AT TAU 72, A SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
    
68. DIRECTLY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST WILL BEGIN TO FORCE THE TRACK OF THE
    
69. SYSTEM TO BECOME GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
    
70. FORECAST PERIOD. WITH REGARD TO FORECASTED INTENSITY, TC 02S IS
    
71. EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT 65 KTS THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS
    
72. NORTHEAST VWS BETWEEN 15-20 KTS AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
    
73. (SSTS) DURING THE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK IS OFFSET BY GOOD OUTFLOW
    
74. ALOFT. AFTER TAU 36 AND WHILE TC 02S STARTS TO NEAR THE STR AXIS,
    
75. DECREASING VWS AND ENHANCED POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW WILL BEGIN
    
76. TO AID IN THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM UP TO 90 KTS BY TAU 72.
    
77. FOLLOWING TAU 72, INCREASED NORTHWESTERLY VWS ABOVE 20 KTS, COOLER
    
78. SSTS BELOW 26 C, AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL BEGIN ERODING TC BHEKI,
    
79. WEAKENING INTENSITIES TO 65 KTS BY TAU 120.
    
80. 
    
81. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD
    
82. AGREEMENT FOR TC 02S, WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF JUST 95 NM BY
    
83. TAU 72. FOLLOWING TAU 72, CROSS-TRACK SPREAD INCREASES TO 223 NM AS
    
84. INTERACTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST STR
    
85. VARIES BETWEEN JTWC CONSENSUS MEMBERS. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES
    
86. RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND VERY CLOSE TO THE
    
87. PREVIOUS JTWC FORECAST, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE 72 HOUR
    
88. FORECAST, AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BETWEEN TAU 72 AND TAU 120.
    
89. NUMERICAL MODEL INTENSITY SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED
    
90. INTENSITIES TO A POTENTIAL WINDOW OF SLIGHT WEAKENING WITHIN THE
    
91. INITIAL 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST DUE TO LOW TO MODERATE VWS AND DRY
    
92. AIR. FOLLOWING TAU 24, THE JTWC CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE IN GOOD
    
93. AGREEMENT THAT STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED UNTIL TAU 72,
    
94. WITH A WEAKENING PHASE THEREAFTER, LENDING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE
    
95. JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST. THE COAMPS-TC INTENSITY PROBABILITY
    
96. PRODUCT ILLUSTRATES STEADY INTENSITIES THROUGH THE 120 FORECAST
    
97. PERIOD, WITH LESS THAN A 25 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF MODERATE
    
98. INTENSIFICATION BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 78.
    
99. 
    
100. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
     
101.    TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
     
102.    TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
     
103.    INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
     
104.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
     
105. NNNN

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renzhetegong

Metop-B/C扫描

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：柳龙生  签发：张 玲  2024 年 11 月 15 日 18 时
“贝基”向西南方向移动

时       间：15日14时（北京时）

海       域：南印度洋

命       名：“贝基”，BHEKI

中心位置：南纬11.8度、东经75.4度

强度等级：热带气旋

最大风力：12级（33米/秒，相当于我国的台风级）

中心气压：980百帕

参考位置：毛里求斯路易港东偏北方向约2120公里的洋面上

变化过程：过去24小时，“贝基”由8级加强到12级

预报结论：“贝基”将以每小时5-10公里的速度向西南方向移动，强度还将有所增强。


图2 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2024年11月15日14时00分）

renzhetegong

微波扫描图像

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 151213
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/3/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BHEKI)

2.A POSITION 2024/11/15 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.2 S / 75.2 E
(TWELVE    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 35 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 185 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 60 NW: 75

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/11/16 00 UTC: 13.5 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 250 SW: 230 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55

24H: 2024/11/16 12 UTC: 14.4 S / 71.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 260 SW: 285 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55

36H: 2024/11/17 00 UTC: 15.3 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SW: 280 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

48H: 2024/11/17 12 UTC: 15.9 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 230 SW: 250 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

60H: 2024/11/18 00 UTC: 16.4 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 250 SW: 240 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

72H: 2024/11/18 12 UTC: 16.7 S / 67.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/11/19 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 65.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SW: 270 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 55

120H: 2024/11/20 12 UTC: 17.5 S / 60.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING
UP
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SW: 215 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 85 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CDO CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED
SLIGHTLY, WITH LESS CLEAR DELINEATION AND WARMER SUMMITS. THIS SLIGHT
DETERIORATION IS PROBABLY DUE TO THE INTRUSION OF DRY AIR. THE LATEST
MICROWAVE PASSES GIVE A GOOD LOCATION OF THE CENTER IN THIS CDO
CONFIGURATION AND SHOW THAT A SLIGHT TILT IS STILL PRESENT. IN THESE
SLIGHTLY DEGRADED CONDITIONS, BHEKI MAINTAINS A MAXIMUM WIND ESTIMATE
OF AROUND 55KT USING THE DVORAK ANALYSIS AT 4.0.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST: WITH THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE AT THE EASTERN END OF THE BASIN, THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY HEADING FURTHER SOUTHWEST. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
BHEKI SHOULD TEMPORARILY COLLIDE WITH A NEW RIDGE FORMING SOUTHEAST
OF MADAGASCAR, CAUSING A SLOWDOWN. AT THE END OF THE DAY, UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE SLIPPING FURTHER SOUTH AND A DROP IN THE
LEVEL OF THE STEERING FLOW, BHEKI COULD RESUME A FASTER TRACK,
HEADING WEST. THIS SCENARIO IS BROADLY ACCEPTED, BUT THERE IS
NEVERTHELESS A RELATIVELY WIDE DISPERSION AMONG THE MAIN MODELS AND
THEIR ENSEMBLES, FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS. THE PRESENT FORECAST REMAINS
IN LINE WITH THE AVERAGE OF ALL THE MODELS, WITH A SLIGHT MORE
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF'S DETERMINISTIC
REPRESENTATION, WHICH MAINTAINS A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK FROM TUESDAY
ONWARDS.

THE MAIN LINES OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAIN UNCHANGED: A PLATEAU
ACCOMPANIED BY A SLIGHT DECREASE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE NORTHERLY
TO NORTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT UNTIL THIS FRIDAY EVENING, AND THE DRY
INTRUSION WHICH COULD LIMIT BHEKI'S DEVELOPMENT. FROM SATURDAY
ONWARDS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD RETURN TO FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, WITH
SUFFICIENT OCEAN POTENTIAL TO ENABLE IT TO REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE
STATUS. DURING THIS INTENSIFICATION PHASE, SHORT PAUSES ARE POSSIBLE
BEFORE A WESTERLY SHEAR STRESS SETS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD
LEAD TO A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS,
BHEKI WILL APPROACH THE MASCAREIGNES WEAKENED.

IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO PREDICT POSSIBLE WIND- AND RAIN-RELATED
IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND. HOWEVER, AS THE SYSTEM IS APPROACHING
RODRIGUES WITHIN 5 DAYS, RODRIGUES RESIDENTS ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW
ITS EVOLUTION.

IMPACT ON RODRIGUES:
- FROM SUNDAY EVENING, SEA CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES. AVERAGE WAVES OF AROUND 4M, WITH MAXIMUM VALUES OF UP TO
8M ARE POSSIBLE.=

理可的呆萌呆毛

OHC不太夠，因此就靠南印的高空環境搭救，但上限應該就僅限C2

Leonardo

TPXS10 PGTW 151547

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BHEKI)

B. 15/1430Z

C. 12.58S

D. 74.47E

E. FIVE/MET9

F. T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 1.10 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 4.0. MET & PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   15/1045Z  12.12S  75.02E  SSMS


   TIMMERMAN

renzhetegong

TXXS26 KNES 151815
TCSSIO
A.  02S (BHEKI)
B.  15/1730Z
C.  12.8S
D.  74.4E
E.  THREE/MET-9
F.  T4.5/4.5
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR
H.  REMARKS...LLCC EMBEDDED GREATER THAN 0.6 DEGREE INTO B YIELDS A
DT=5.0. MET=4.5. PT=4.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE MET SINCE THE EXACT POSN
OF THE LLCC RELATIVE TO THE COLD OVC IS UNKNOWN.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL

...LEE

---

TPXS10 PGTW 151841
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BHEKI)
B. 15/1800Z
C. 12.85S
D. 74.38E
E. FIVE/HMWRI9
F. T3.5/4.0/D1.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 1.0 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.5. MET YIELDS A 4.0. PT YIELDS A 4.0. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

   LINDGREN

renzhetegong

Metop-C 风场及微波扫描