马达加斯加以南强热带气旋第5号“迪克莱迪”(08U/07S.Dikeledi) - 有记载以来纬度最南的ITC，12日登陆马达加斯加北部，13日登陆莫桑比克 - JTWC:100KT

ygsj24

WTXS21 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94S) //
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
145 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.6S 77.4E TO 14.5S 64.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 071800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.6S 76.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 14.1S
77.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.6S 76.0E, APPROXIMATELY 479 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARICA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
071753Z GMI 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE AS WELL A 071628Z METOP-C AMSU-B 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITH FORMATIVE BANDING AND
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION CONSISTENTLY BUILDING OVER THE CENTER OF THE
SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS CONDUCIVE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF 94S WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS), AND WARM (27-28C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. CURRENTLY, 94S ALSO HAS WEAK RADIAL OUTFLOW AND A
MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ALOFT TO ASSIST IN DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL
ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 94S WILL CONTINUE
TO CONSOLIDATE AND TRACK WEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
082100Z.
//
NNNN

---

ABIO10 PGTW 072130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/072130Z-081800ZJAN2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/072051ZJAN2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
14.1S 77.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.6S 76.0E, APPROXIMATELY 479 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
071753Z GMI 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE AS WELL A 071628Z METOP-C AMSU-B 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITH FORMATIVE BANDING AND
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION CONSISTENTLY BUILDING OVER THE CENTER OF THE
SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS CONDUCIVE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF 94S WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS), AND WARM (27-28C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. CURRENTLY, 94S ALSO HAS WEAK RADIAL OUTFLOW AND A
MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ALOFT TO ASSIST IN DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL
ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 94S WILL CONTINUE
TO CONSOLIDATE AND TRACK WEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 072100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO HIGH. //
NNNN

pocketbox

WTIO30 FMEE 080041
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/5/20242025
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5

2.A POSITION 2025/01/08 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.5 S / 74.9 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 17 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/08 12 UTC: 14.9 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 260 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2025/01/09 00 UTC: 15.4 S / 66.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 155 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 0 NW: 0

36H: 2025/01/09 12 UTC: 15.2 S / 62.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 175 SW: 215 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 0

48H: 2025/01/10 00 UTC: 15.0 S / 59.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 270 SW: 270 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 55

60H: 2025/01/10 12 UTC: 14.7 S / 56.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

72H: 2025/01/11 00 UTC: 14.2 S / 53.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 230 SW: 215 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/01/12 00 UTC: 14.0 S / 47.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 215 SW: 155 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 0 NW: 0

120H: 2025/01/13 00 UTC: 15.4 S / 43.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 155 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 65 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 60 SW: 50 NW: 40

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AND BEEN
MAINTAINED AROUND THE CENTER. THE F-18 MICRO-WAVE IMAGE FROM 2330Z
SHOWS THAT CIRCULATION IS BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE BUT IS STILL HINDERED
BY DRY AIR INTRUSION INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SYSTEM. A SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ANALYSIS RAISES THE T-NUMBER TO 2.5 AND CLASSIFIES THE SYSTEM AS
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH ESTIMATED WINDS OF 30KT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF FORECAST TRACK: IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WESTWARD, GUIDED ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CENTERED ON THE BASIN. THE GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY WELL DEFINED, AS
SHOWN BY THE CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS. HOWEVER, IT
SHOULD MOVE SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN FORECAST IN PREVIOUS BULLETINS. ON
THIS TRACK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD LAND NORTH OF MADAGASCAR ON SATURDAY,
PASSING CLOSE TO SAINT-BRANDON AND TROMELIN ON FRIDAY. ON SUNDAY, IT
SHOULD EMERGE INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL ON A SOUTH-WESTERLY
TRAJECTORY. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRAJECTORY IS FAIRLY GOOD, IT
SHOULD BE BORNE IN MIND THAT FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES OVER THE
LONGER TERM.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY FORECASTS, THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE QUITE DISPARATE.
WITH THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR AND RELATIVELY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AT
PRESENT, THE SYSTEM IS STILL STRUGGLING TO ORGANIZE ITSELF. AS THE SHEAR
DECREASES, THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY MORE REGULARLY, REACHING THE
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM THRESHOLD THIS WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD REACH THE SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL OVER MADAGASCAR. ON EXITING THE MOZAMBIQUE CANAL, IT COULD
REINTENSIFY AND PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS. HOWEVER, THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE MAXIMUM INTENSIFICATION OF THE
SYSTEM, AS THERE IS NO CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS, WITH THE
CURRENT CMRS FORECAST OPTING FOR A HIGHER INTENSITY THAN THAT OF MOST
MODELS.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

SAINT BRANDON :
- GALE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY TO FRIDAY.
- VERY ROUGH SEAS POSSIBLE WITH WAVES OF 4 TO 6M ON FRIDAY.
- RAINFALL LOCALLY UP TO 100MM IN 24H DURING THE EPISODE.
- IMPROVEMENT DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

TROMELIN:
- GALE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.
- VERY HEAVY SEAS POSSIBLE WITH WAVES OF 4 TO 6M ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- RAINFALL LOCALLY UP TO 150MM IN 24H DURING THE EPISODE.
- IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT FRIDAY TO SATURDAY.

pocketbox

WTIO30 FMEE 080652
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/5/20242025
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5

2.A POSITION 2025/01/08 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.1 S / 72.3 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 20 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 360 SW: 280 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/08 18 UTC: 15.1 S / 68.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 345 SW: 260 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 0

24H: 2025/01/09 06 UTC: 15.3 S / 64.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 335 SW: 260 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 0

36H: 2025/01/09 18 UTC: 15.1 S / 61.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 325 SW: 260 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 75

48H: 2025/01/10 06 UTC: 14.9 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 315 SW: 260 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 150 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

60H: 2025/01/10 18 UTC: 14.4 S / 54.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 315 SW: 260 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

72H: 2025/01/11 06 UTC: 13.6 S / 51.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 305 SW: 260 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/01/12 06 UTC: 14.3 S / 46.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 285 SW: 260 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

120H: 2025/01/13 06 UTC: 16.3 S / 42.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 280 SW: 260 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SW: 150 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 50

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.0 CI=2.5

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE DEEP CONVECTION INITIALLY LOCALIZED IN THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT HAS GRADUALLY DISSIPATED, WITH CLEAR COOLING OF
TOP CLOUDS. THE MICROWAVE PASSES SSMIS-F18/F17 AT 2315Z AND 0125Z
RESPECTIVELY SHOW AN INTERNAL CORE IN THE PROCESS OF CONSOLIDATION,
HAMPERED HOWEVER BY THE INFLOW OF DRY AIR ALOFT IN THE NORTH-WEST
SEMICIRCLE, LINKED TO A SLIGHT ALTITUDE VWS. THE LATEST RSMC
OBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS TAKES ACCOUNT OF THIS SLIGHT DETERIORATION
IN CLOUD PATTERN, BUT CURRENTLY REMAINS AT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION
STAGE IN THE ABSENCE OF OBJECTIVE DATA. IN FACT, THE ASCAT-B PASS AT
0421Z REMAINS INCOMPLETE, TOO FAR REMOVED FROM THE STRUCTURE OF THE
SYSTEM. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE ASSOCIATED TOTAL AMSU-B HAS ENABLED US
TO REFINE THE TRACK AND CONFIRMS THE ONGOING CONSOLIDATION OF THE
CORE.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF FORECAST TRACK: IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WESTWARD, GUIDED ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CENTERED ON THE BASIN. THE GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY WELL DEFINED, AS
SHOWN BY THE CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS. HOWEVER, IT
SHOULD MOVE SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN FORECAST IN PREVIOUS BULLETINS. ON
THIS TRACK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD LAND NORTH OF MADAGASCAR ON SATURDAY,
PASSING CLOSE TO SAINT-BRANDON AND TROMELIN ON FRIDAY. ON SUNDAY, IT
SHOULD EMERGE INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL ON A SOUTH-WESTERLY
TRAJECTORY. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRAJECTORY IS FAIRLY GOOD, IT
SHOULD BE BORNE IN MIND THAT FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES OVER THE
LONGER TERM.

IN TERMS OF FORECAST INTENSITY, THERE IS NO CLEAR CONSENSUS. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS, GIVEN THE CONTRASTING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF VWS AND
DRY AIR ALOFT CLOSE TO THE INTERNAL STRUCTURE, SLOWING DOWN THE
CYCLOGENESIS PROCESS. HOWEVER, FROM THURSDAY ONWARDS, AS THE SHEAR
DECREASES AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IMPROVES, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
INTENSIFY STEADILY AND RAPIDLY, REACHING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE
ON FRIDAY, AND COULD LAND ON THE EAST COAST OF ANTSIRANANA PROVINCE
AT A MATURE STAGE ON SATURDAY.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD RAPIDLY MOVE INLAND, WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AND
RETAINING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS, BEFORE EXITING INTO THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL ON SUNDAY. BACK OVER WARM WATERS IN A FAVORABLE
CONTEXT, THE SYSTEM IS SET TO INTENSIFY AGAIN. HOWEVER, THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE MAXIMUM INTENSIFICATION OF THE
SYSTEM, AS THERE IS NO CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS, WITH THE
CURRENT RSMC FORECAST OPTING FOR A HIGHER INTENSITY THAN THAT OF MOST
MODELS.

SAINT BRANDON:
- GALE FORCE WIND POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY.
- VERY HEAVY SEAS POSSIBLE WITH WAVES OF 4 TO 6M BETWEEN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
- RAINFALL LOCALLY UP TO 100MM IN 24H DURING THE EPISODE.
- IMPROVEMENT DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

TROMELIN :
- GALE FORCE WIND POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.
- VERY HEAVY SEAS POSSIBLE WITH WAVES OF 4 TO 6M ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
- RAINFALL LOCALLY UP TO 150MM IN 24H DURING THE EPISODE.
- IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT FRIDAY TO SATURDAY.=

Leonardo

TPXS12 PGTW 080622

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94S (SE OF DIEGO GARCIA)

B. 08/0530Z

C. 14.93S

D. 72.43E

E. FIVE/MET9

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET YIELDS 2.0. PT YIELDS 1.5. DBO MET.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   RAE

Leonardo

TXXS23 KNES 080602
TCSSIO

A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94S)

B.  08/0530Z

C.  14.9S

D.  72.2E

E.  THREE/MET-9

F.  T2.0/2.0

G.  IR/EIR/VIS

H.  REMARKS...3.5/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT=2.0. THE MET AND PT AGREE. THE
FT IS BASED ON THE MET SINCE THE BANDING FEATURE IS NOT CLEAR-CUT.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    NIL


...LEE

=

Leonardo

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 081229
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/5/20242025
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5

2.A POSITION 2025/01/08 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.9 S / 70.0 E
(FOURTEEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 19 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 345 SW: 345 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/09 00 UTC: 15.1 S / 66.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 325 SW: 305 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SW: 175 NW: 0

24H: 2025/01/09 12 UTC: 15.1 S / 62.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 325 SW: 305 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SW: 175 NW: 75

36H: 2025/01/10 00 UTC: 15.1 S / 59.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 315 SW: 305 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 175 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2025/01/10 12 UTC: 14.7 S / 55.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 305 SW: 305 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 175 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2025/01/11 00 UTC: 13.9 S / 52.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 305 SW: 305 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 175 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

72H: 2025/01/11 12 UTC: 13.2 S / 50.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 295 SW: 305 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 175 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/01/12 12 UTC: 15.1 S / 45.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 285 SW: 305 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 175 NW: 100

120H: 2025/01/13 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 42.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 280 SW: 305 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5 CI=2.5

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION HAS STRENGTHENED OVERALL, WITH AN
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 0845Z AND
1015Z. THESE CONVECTIVE PUFFS MOVED CLOSER TO THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY, AS EVIDENCED BY A STUDY OF THE
DIFFUSIOMETRIC PASSES 0529Z GPM-GMI AND 0912Z GCOM-W1-AMSR2 . IN
ADDITION, THE HIGH DEFINITION OF THESE IMAGES HAS ENABLED US TO
REFINE THE POSITION OF THE BESTRACK, BUT ALSO TO SHOW THAT THE INNER
CORE OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH IS STILL IN THE PROCESS OF SYMMETRIZATION,
SEEMS TO BE HINDERED BY THE PERSISTENCE OF MODERATE THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE VWS. THUS, THE SYSTEM IS LEFT AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FOR 30KT.

LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE FORECAST TRACK. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK
WESTWARDS, GUIDED ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CENTERED ON THE BASIN. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND REMAIN
STABLE OVER THE LATEST RUNS AND FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK,
THE SYSTEM SHOULD LAND TO THE NORTH OF MADAGASCAR (ANTSIRANANA
PROVINCE) ON SATURDAY, BEFORE TRANSITING TO THE NORTH OF
SAINT-BRANDON AND TROMELIN ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
RE-EMERGE IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL ON SUNDAY, CURVING ITS TRACK TO
THE SOUTH-WEST AS THE RIDGE OVER THE BASIN RECEDES. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK IS FAIRLY GOOD, THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE FORECAST TRACK IN THE CHANNEL, WITH A WIDER
DISPERSION OF GUIDANCE. THE RSMC FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE, WHOSE DISPERSION IS RELATIVELY
WIDE BEYOND 72 HOURS, LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE SYSTEM'S TRACK
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT WEEK.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY FORECASTS, THERE IS NO OVERALL CONSENSUS. THE
OVERALL INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ONE, IN VIEW OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY
IMPROVE OVER THE HOURS, CONTRASTED AT PRESENT BY A SLIGHT CONSTRAINT
ALOFT AND AMBIENT DRY AIR NEAR THE CENTER. TOMORROW, HOWEVER, AS THE
VWS DECREASES AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IMPROVES, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
INTENSIFY STEADILY AND RAPIDLY, REACHING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE
ON FRIDAY, AND COULD LAND ON THE EAST COAST OF THE PROVINCE OF
ANTSIRANANA AT A MATURE STAGE ON SATURDAY.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD RAPIDLY MOVE INLAND, WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AND
MAINTAINING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS, BEFORE EXITING INTO THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL ON SUNDAY. BACK OVER WARM WATERS IN A FAVORABLE
CONTEXT, BUT RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE MALAGASY COAST, THE SYSTEM IS
SET TO INTENSIFY AGAIN. HOWEVER, THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS
TO THE MAXIMUM INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM, AS THERE IS NO
CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS, WITH THE CURRENT CMRS FORECAST
OPTING FOR A HIGHER INTENSITY THAN MOST OF THE LATEST MODELS.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

SAINT BRANDON :
- GALE FORCE WIND POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY.
- VERY ROUGH SEAS POSSIBLE WITH WAVES OF 4 TO 6M BETWEEN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
- IMPROVEMENT DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

TROMELIN :
- GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.
- VERY ROUGH SEAS POSSIBLE WITH WAVES 4 TO 6M FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT FRIDAY TO SATURDAY.

MADAGASCAR - ANTSIRANANA PROVINCE
- GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY SATURDAY, STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER AND ACCORDING TO FINAL INTENSITY FORECAST.
- VERY ROUGH SEAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH WAVES BETWEEN
4 AND 6 METERS.
- POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINS ON SATURDAY ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
ANTSIRANANA PROVINCE.=

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 081846
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/5/20242025
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5

2.A POSITION 2025/01/08 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.9 S / 68.3 E
(FOURTEEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY EIGHT    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 18 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 345 SW: 345 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/09 06 UTC: 15.1 S / 64.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 325 SW: 305 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SW: 175 NW: 65

24H: 2025/01/09 18 UTC: 15.1 S / 61.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 325 SW: 305 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SW: 175 NW: 75

36H: 2025/01/10 06 UTC: 14.9 S / 57.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 315 SW: 305 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 175 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2025/01/10 18 UTC: 14.3 S / 54.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 305 SW: 305 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 175 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2025/01/11 06 UTC: 13.4 S / 51.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 305 SW: 305 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 175 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

72H: 2025/01/11 18 UTC: 13.3 S / 49.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 295 SW: 305 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 175 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/01/12 18 UTC: 15.6 S / 44.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 285 SW: 305 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 175 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

120H: 2025/01/13 18 UTC: 17.8 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 280 SW: 305 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5- CI=2.5

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION HAS FLUCTUATED CONSIDERABLY,
WEAKENING SHARPLY AT AROUND 14UTC AND THEN PICKING UP AGAIN. THE
CURVED BAND CONFIGURATION REMAINS NOTABLE, WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, LEAVING A DVORAK ANALYSIS IN T AT
2.5-. THE LATEST ASCAT PASS REMAINS PARTIAL AND DOES NOT ALLOW A MORE
PRECISE ESTIMATE OF WINDS IN THE SOUTH, THE WINDIEST SECTOR. THE
LATEST MICROWAVE DATA ALSO SHOW NO SIGN OF CONSOLIDATION IN THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION, WITH THE CIRCULATION IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR
APPEARING TO BE VERY WEAK. BASED ON THESE DATA, IT IS DIFFICULT TO
DETECT ANY SIGN OF INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ANALYSIS TIME. AS A RESULT, SYSTEM 05-20242025 REMAINS AT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION LEVEL, WITH MAXIMUM WINDS ESTIMATED AT 30KT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF FORECAST TRACK. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WESTWARD, GUIDED ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CENTERED ON THE BASIN. ON THIS TRACK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS NORTH OF
SAINT-BRANDON AND TROMELIN BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS TRACK RIGHT UP TO LANDFALL ON SATURDAY. THEY REMAIN
STABLE OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS, EVEN IF A SLIGHT TENDENCY TO SLOW DOWN
BEFORE LANDFALL MAY APPEAR. ON SUNDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD RE-EMERGE IN
THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, CURVING ITS TRACK TO THE SOUTH-WEST AS THE
RIDGE OVER THE BASIN RECEDES. AT THESE TIMES, CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK
IS REDUCED BY THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE EXTENT OF THE EASTWARD RETREAT
OF THE RIDGE, RESULTING IN SOME VARIABILITY IN THE RUNS OF SOME
MODELS. THE RSMC FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST
GUIDANCES, BUT OPTING FOR A TRACK THAT TAKES THE SYSTEM CLOSE TO THE
MALAGASY COAST.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY FORECASTS, THERE IS NO OVERALL CONSENSUS. THE
RSMC INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVERALL THAN MOST OF
THE GUIDELINES, BUT HAS BEEN REVISED DOWNWARDS SLIGHTLY, DUE TO THE
LACK OF CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. HOWEVER,
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS (WITH DRY AMBIENT AIR NEAR THE CENTER FADING AWAY), ALLOWING A
PHASE OF REGULAR INTENSIFICATION TO SET IN OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
THEREAFTER, INTENSIFICATION WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED, ENABLING THE
SYSTEM TO REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE THRESHOLD STATUS ON FRIDAY, AND
COULD REACH THE EAST COAST OF THE PROVINCE OF ANTSIRANANA AT A MATURE
STAGE DURING SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD RAPIDLY MOVE INLAND AS IT
WEAKENS, BUT SHOULD RETAIN ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND EMERGE
INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL ON SUNDAY. BACK IN WARM WATERS IN
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, BUT RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE MALAGASY COAST, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY AGAIN. HOWEVER, THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE MAXIMUM INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM, AS THERE
IS NO CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS, WITH THE CURRENT RSMC
FORECAST OPTING FOR A HIGHER INTENSITY THAN MOST OF THE LATEST
MODELS.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

SAINT BRANDON :
- GALE FORCE WIND PROBABLE THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY.
- VERY ROUGH SEAS PROBABLE WITH WAVES OF 4 TO 6M BETWEEN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
- IMPROVEMENT DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

TROMELIN :
- GALE FORCE WINDS PROBABLE ON FRIDAY.
- VERY ROUGH SEAS PROBABLE WITH WAVES 4 TO 6M FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT FRIDAY TO SATURDAY.

MADAGASCAR - ANTSIRANANA PROVINCE
- GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY SATURDAY, STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER AND ACCORDING TO FINAL INTENSITY FORECAST.
- VERY ROUGH SEAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH WAVES BETWEEN
4 AND 6 METERS.
- POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINS ON SATURDAY ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
ANTSIRANANA PROVINCE.=

ygsj24

WTXS21 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94S) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/072100ZJAN2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 072100)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
145 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.9S 69.1E TO 14.2S 58.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 081800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.0S 68.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
14.9S 71.1E IS NOW LOCATED 15.0S 68.2E, APPROXIMATELY 684 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICT A
CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. A 081650Z
METOP-B AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES
TIGHTLY WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT OFFSET BY THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR
WITHIN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERIES. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE AND
DETERMINISTIC ARE IN AGREEMENT ON A WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
092100Z.//
NNNN

pocketbox

WTIO30 FMEE 090053
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/5/20242025
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION 2025/01/09 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.0 S / 66.4 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SIX    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 19 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 345 SW: 345 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/09 12 UTC: 14.9 S / 62.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 325 SW: 305 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SW: 175 NW: 0

24H: 2025/01/10 00 UTC: 14.8 S / 59.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 325 SW: 305 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SW: 175 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 35

36H: 2025/01/10 12 UTC: 14.4 S / 56.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 315 SW: 305 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 175 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45

48H: 2025/01/11 00 UTC: 13.7 S / 52.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 305 SW: 305 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 175 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35

60H: 2025/01/11 12 UTC: 13.2 S / 50.7 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 305 SW: 305 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 175 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35

72H: 2025/01/12 00 UTC: 13.8 S / 48.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 295 SW: 305 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 175 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/01/13 00 UTC: 16.4 S / 44.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 285 SW: 305 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 175 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 55

120H: 2025/01/14 00 UTC: 19.7 S / 43.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 280 SW: 305 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION HAS EVOLVED LITTLE UP TO 21UTC,
THEN CERTAINLY UNDER THE EFFECT OF CONVERGENCE IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
SECTOR, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS GREATLY STRENGTHENED, LEAVING AN
ESTIMATED CENTER IN A MUCH MORE PRESENT CONVECTIVE MASS. THE CURVED
BAND CONFIGURATION IS THUS BETTER DEFINED, WITH A WINDING THAT NOW
JUSTIFIES A CI OF 2.5+. SYSTEM 05 THUS PASSES THE MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM THRESHOLD, WITH MAXIMUM WINDS ESTIMATED AT 35KT. UNFORTUNATELY,
THERE IS NO SCATTEROMETER DATA TO VALIDATE THIS ESTIMATE MADE BY THE
DVORAK ANALYSIS, AND THE F18 MICROWAVE PASS AT 2320UTC REMAINS
DIFFICULT TO EXPLOIT. AT 00UTC, THE MAURITIAN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
NAMED DIKELEDI.

LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST TRACK OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARDS, GUIDED ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED ON THE BASIN. ON THIS SLIGHTLY MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK THAN BEFORE, THE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS NORTH OF
SAINT-BRANDON AND TROMELIN BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS TRAJECTORY RIGHT UP TO THE LANDFALL
SCHEDULED FOR LATE SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT TENDENCY FOR
THE SYSTEM TO SLOW DOWN BEFORE THE LANDFALL. UNCERTAINTY OVER THE
TRACK IS THEREFORE GROWING FROM THESE 72-HOUR INTERVALS. THE RSMC
FORECAST SUGGESTS THAT IT WILL RE-EMERGE IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL ON
SUNDAY, CURVING ITS TRACK TO THE SOUTH-WEST AS A RESULT OF THE
RETREAT OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BASIN. AT THESE TIMES,
CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK IS REDUCED BY UNCERTAINTY OVER THE EXTENT OF
THE RIDGE'S EASTWARD RETREAT, RESULTING IN GREATER VARIABILITY IN THE
RUNS FOR SOME MODELS. THE RSMC FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE BEST GUIDANCES, BUT OPTING FOR A TRACK THAT TAKES THE
SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE MALAGASY COAST THAN PREVIOUSLY.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY FORECASTS, THERE IS NO OVERALL CONSENSUS. ON
THE WHOLE, THE RSMC INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
THE MAJORITY OF GUIDELINES. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY
IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS (WITH DRY AMBIENT AIR NEAR THE
CENTER, WHICH IS CURRENTLY FADING), ALLOWING A PHASE OF REGULAR
INTENSIFICATION TO SET IN OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. INTENSIFICATION
WILL THEN BECOME MORE MARKED, ENABLING THE SYSTEM TO REACH THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE THRESHOLD ON FRIDAY AND REACH THE EAST COAST OF THE
PROVINCE OF ANTSIRANANA AT A MATURE STAGE LATE SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND, WEAKENING, BUT RETAINING ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS, BEFORE EXITING INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL ON
SUNDAY. BACK IN WARM WATERS IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, BUT RELATIVELY
CLOSE TO THE MALAGASY COAST, THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY AGAIN, BUT
GRADUALLY. HOWEVER, THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
MAXIMUM INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM, AS THERE IS NO CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS, WITH THE CURRENT RSMC FORECAST OPTING FOR
A HIGHER INTENSITY THAN MOST OF THE LATEST MODELS. IN THE CASE OF A
LONGER TRANSIT OVER LAND, THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM WOULD BE MUCH
LOWER.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

SAINT BRANDON :
- GALE FORCE WIND PROBABLE THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY.
- VERY ROUGH SEAS PROBABLE WITH WAVES OF 4 TO 6M BETWEEN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
- IMPROVEMENT DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

TROMELIN :
- GALE FORCE WINDS PROBABLE ON FRIDAY.
- VERY ROUGH SEAS PROBABLE WITH WAVES 4 TO 6M FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT FRIDAY TO SATURDAY.

MADAGASCAR - ANTSIRANANA AND MAHAJANGA PROVINCES
- GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY SATURDAY, STORM FORCE WINDS AND HURRICANE
POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER MAINLY OVER ANTSIRANANA PROVINCE.
- VERY HEAVY SEAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH WAVES BETWEEN
4 AND 6 METRES BETWEEN CAP D'AMBRE AND CAP EST.
- HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FROM SATURDAY ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
ANTSIRANANA PROVINCE AND CONTINUING ON SUNDAY OVER MAHAJANGA
PROVINCE.=