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本帖最后由 yhh 于 2025-1-30 22:40 编辑
WTXS31 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 16.6S 69.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 69.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 16.7S 67.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 17.0S 65.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 17.4S 63.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 18.0S 61.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 19.4S 57.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 19.7S 54.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 19.3S 51.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 16.6S 69.4E.
30JAN25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 590
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 301200Z IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
310300Z AND 311500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELVIS) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
- WDXS31 PGTW 301500
- MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
- SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR
- 005//
- RMKS/
- 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
- 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
- SUMMARY:
- INITIAL POSITION: 16.6S 69.9E
- INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
- GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 590 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA
- MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KTS
- SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 17 FEET
- SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
- TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (ELEVEN) IS STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN
- TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY, UNDER THE PERNICIOUS INFLUENCE OF
- PERSISTENT EASTERLY SHEAR AND DRY AIR INTRUSION. ANIMATED
- MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THAT THE STRONG
- CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY OVER THE LOW LEVEL
- CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS SINCE BEEN BLOWN OFF TO THE WEST BY
- 20-25 KNOTS OF EASTERLY SHEAR, LEAVING BEHIND A FULLY EXPOSED LLCC.
- A 301147Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALED THE WELL-DEFINED
- NATURE OF THE BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC, ALBEIT
- COMPLETELY LIMITED TO THE LOWER-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
- ADDITIONALLY, THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALED A DEEP WEDGE OF DRY
- AIR EXTENDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHERN PERIMETER OF THE
- CIRCULATION AND STARTING TO WRAP INTO THE EASTERN PERIMETER. THE
- INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
- WELL-DEFINED LLCC IN THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY DISCUSSED ABOVE. THE
- INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, BASED ON A
- BLEND OF THE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OUTLINED
- ABOVE. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL, WITH WARM SSTS AND MODERATE
- POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW BEING OFFSET BY STRONG EASTERLY
- SHEAR AND DRY AIR INTRUSION.
- INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
- CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
- SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
- AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
- PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
- KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
- DEMS: T2.5 - 35 KTS
- FMEE: T2.5 - 35 KTS
- CIMSS SATCON: 40 KTS AT 301100Z
- CIMSS ADT: 37 KTS AT 301200Z
- CIMSS AIDT: 38 KTS AT 301200Z
- CIMSS D-MINT: 29 KTS AT 301150Z
- CIMSS D-PRINT: 30 KTS AT 301200Z
- FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
- VWS: 20-25 KTS
- SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
- OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
- OTHER FACTORS: DRY MID-LEVEL AIR IN THE EASTERN HEMISPHERE OF
- THE CIRCULATION.
- ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
- INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
- INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
- INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
- 3. FORECAST REASONING.
- SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THE TRACK HAS SHIFTED NORTH OF THE
- MASCARENE ISLANDS WITH THIS FORECAST.
- FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 11S WILL TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE
- NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP STR FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.
- A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGING PATTERN TO THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN
- WEAKENING IN THE STEERING GRADIENT, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO SLOW
- DOWN A FEW KNOTS THROUGH ABOUT TAU 24. A NEW DEEP-LAYER STR CENTER
- MOVES EASTWARD TO A POSITION SOUTHEAST OF THE MASCARENES AFTER TAU
- 24, WHICH WILL TIGHTEN UP THE GRADIENT, ALLOWING TC 11S TO ONCE AGAIN
- PICK UP SPEED. AFTER TAU 36, AS THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE SOUTH
- OF TC 11S, IT WILL TURN ONTO A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AND
- MAINTAIN THIS MOTION VECTOR THROUGH ABOUT TAU 72. THE SYSTEM IS
- FORECAST TO TRACK JUST NORTH OF MAURITIUS AROUND 72, THEN TURN
- WESTWARD ONCE AGAIN AS IT PASSES NORTH OF LA REUNION BY TAU 96. IN
- TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE AGAINST
- THE EASTERLY SHEAR AND DRY AIR, WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR
- THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. MOMENTUM CONSERVATION AND BRIEF BURSTS OF
- CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A STEADY 35 KNOT INTENSITY
- DURING THIS PERIOD, THOUGH THERE IS ABOUT AN EQUAL CHANCE THAT THE
- SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 35 KNOTS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
- BOTH THE GLOBAL AND MESOSCALE MODELS PREDICT THE SHEAR TO DROP OFF
- SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TAU 48, COINCIDENT WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
- SSTS AND A GENERAL MOISTENING OF THE ENVIRONMENT. IF THE SYSTEM CAN
- MAKE IT THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS, IT IS LIKELY TO REINTENSIFY AS IT
- PASSES THE MASCARENES AND HEADS TOWARDS MADAGASCAR, WHERE IT WILL
- FIND A MUCH MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
- MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A WIDE
- DISPERSION, WITH THREE DISTINCT GROUPINGS OF TRACKERS. THE GFS AND
- NAVGEM COMPRISE THE NORTHERN GROUP, WITH GFS TAKING THE SYSTEM NEAR
- NORTHERN MADAGASCAR BEFORE DIVING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. THE
- MIDDLE GROUP IS THE LARGEST, WITH ECMWF, ECEPS, GALWEM, GEFS AND
- THE CONSENSUS MEAN. THE THIRD GROUP CONSISTS OF THE UKMET AND
- MOGREPS, TAKING THE SYSTEM SHARPLY POLEWARD AFTER PASSING
- MAURITIUS, LEADING TO A MORE THAN 700NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD BY THE
- END OF THE FORECAST. ECEPS AND GEFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
- TERMS OF THE MEAN, WITH THE MODEST MEMBER DISPERSION IN BOTH. THE
- JTWC FORECAST HAS SHIFTED NORTHWARD SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE
- PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CLOSELY TRACKS THE ECMWF TRACKER THROUGH THE
- ENTIRE FORECAST. CONFIDENCE THROUGH TAU 72 IS MEDIUM, AND LOW
- THEREAFTER DUE TO THE EXTREME DISPERSION IN THE GUIDANCE. INTENSITY
- GUIDANCE SHOWS A SIMILAR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY, WITH THE SHIPS
- GUIDANCE STEADILY INTENSIFYING THE SYSTEM UP TO A PEAK OF 75 KNOTS
- IN THE NAVGEM VERSION. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE PACKAGE SHOWS
- EITHER A FLAT INTENSITY OR A WEAKENING THROUGH ABOUT TAU 72,
- FOLLOWED BY INTENSIFICATION THEREAFTER. THE JTWC FORECAST IS ROUGHLY
- CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSENSUS MEAN WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
- TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
- TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
- INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW
- INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
- NNNN
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楼主: 理可的呆萌呆毛
发表于 2025-1-30 22:10
发表于 2025-1-31 04:35
