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本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2025-2-4 16:25 编辑
WTXS32 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) WARNING NR 006
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 17.8S 90.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 90.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 18.4S 88.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 19.1S 85.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 19.6S 83.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 20.2S 82.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 21.0S 77.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 22.0S 73.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 23.2S 70.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 89.6E.
04FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 518
NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 040600Z IS 958 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 37 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
042100Z AND 050900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FAIDA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN
- WDXS32 PGTW 040900
- MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
- SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) WARNING NR
- 006//
- RMKS/
- 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
- 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
- SUMMARY:
- INITIAL POSITION: 17.8S 90.1E
- INITIAL INTENSITY: 100 KTS
- GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 518 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS
- MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KTS
- SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 37 FEET
- SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
- ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A COMPACT
- SYSTEM, WITH A CLOUD-FILLED PINHOLE EYE. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
- (EIR) IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE PINHOLE EYE REACHED ITS MOST INTENSE
- RIGHT AROUND 040600Z, BUT SUBSEQUENT IMAGERY SHOWS THE EYE ALREADY
- STARTED TO FILL IN, THOUGH IT REMAINS PRESENT. A 040332Z AMSU-B
- 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWED WELL-DEFINED SPIRAL BANDS OF DEEP
- CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE SMALL EYE FEATURE. HOWEVER, THE
- MICROWAVE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATED THE SYSTEM IS HIGHLY ASYMMETRICAL
- IN TERMS OF CONVECTION, WITH THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
- CIRCULATION BEING RATHER SHALLOW OVERALL. HAFS-A SHOWS A GENERAL
- LACK DEEP MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION,
- WHICH IS VERIFIED BY THE AMSU-B DEPICTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
- ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PINHOLE EYE IN THE MSI
- AND EIR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE
- HIGHEST AGENCY DVORAK FIX (T5.5 FROM KNES) BASED ON THE FACT THAT
- DVORAK OFTEN STRUGGLES WITH PINHOLE EYES. ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR
- THE INITIAL INTENSITY COMES FROM A 032332Z RCM-2 SAR PASS WHICH
- REVEALED 100 KNOT WINDS SIX HOURS AGO. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
- FAVORABLE, WITH WARM SSTS, GOOD DIVERGENT OUTFLOW ALOFT THOUGH THE
- PRESENCE OF PERSISTENT MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR WILL LIKELY HINDER
- THINGS GOING FORWARD.
- INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SAR DATA
- CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
- SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST.
- AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
- PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
- KNES: T5.5 - 102 KTS
- DEMS: T4.5 - 77 KTS
- APRF: T4.5 - 77 KTS
- CIMSS SATCON: 91 KTS AT 040545Z
- CIMSS ADT: 82 KTS AT 040600Z
- CIMSS AIDT: 85 KTS AT 040600Z
- CIMSS D-PRINT: 84 KTS AT 040600Z
- FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
- VWS: 10-15 KTS
- SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
- OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD
- OTHER FACTORS: MESOSCALE RADIAL OUTFLOW AND SHEAR BLOCKING.
- ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
- INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
- INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW
- INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
- 3. FORECAST REASONING.
- SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS RAISED TO
- 100 KNOTS, WHICH RESULTS IN SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN FORECAST
- INTENSITY THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
- FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 13S (VINCE) WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG
- THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE DEEP STR TO THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE FIRST
- 36 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. A RELATIVELY DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
- WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTH AROUND TAU 48. WHILE THIS TROUGH WILL BE
- STRONG ENOUGH TO BREAK THE RIDGE, IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH FAR
- ENOUGH EQUATORWARD TO INDUCE TC 13S SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER, TRACK
- SPEEDS WILL SLOW DOWN BRIEFLY AS THE STEERING GRADIENT WEAKENS AND
- A VERY SLIGHT DIP POLEWARD IS LIKELY. DEEP RIDGING WILL RAPIDLY
- BUILD IN BEHIND THE TROUGH AFTER TAU 60, AND SLIDE TO A POSITION
- NEAR 25S 80E AND ENHANCING THE STEERING GRADIENT ONCE MORE. TC 13S
- WILL SPEED UP A KNOT OR TWO WHILE CONTINUING ON ITS SOUTHWESTWARD
- TREK THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A SLIGHT TURN MORE
- POLEWARD WILL START AROUND TAU 120, AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE
- VERY EARLY PHASES OF ROUNDING THE RIDGE AT THIS POINT. IN TERMS OF
- INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE LAST DAY,
- LIKELY AS A RESULT OF A DEEP CONVECTIVE BURST PUSHING BACK AGAINST
- THE MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR AND REDUCING THE LOCALIZED SHEAR OVER
- TOP OF THE SYSTEM. UPSHEAR CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED BUT NEW
- CONVECTION IS STARTING TO APPEAR ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE EYE.
- WHETHER THIS CAN STICK AND ROTATE UPSHEAR WILL BE THE DETERMINANT
- FACTOR GOING FORWARD. THE SYSTEM IS VERY COMPACT, THUS RAPID AND
- LARGE DEVIATIONS IN INTENSITY CAN BE EXPECTED. THE OVERALL TREND IS
- FOR A SLOW WEAKENING TREND OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE SYSTEM
- EXPERIENCES A LESSER AMOUNT OF POLEWARD OUTFLOW DURING THIS
- TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER, BY TAU 72, TC 13S WILL MOVE INTO WARMER WATERS
- AND BEGIN TO TAP INTO A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, WHICH
- SHOULD ALLOW FOR A REINTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE END OF THE
- FORECAST.
- MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE TRACK GUIDANCE ARE IN
- GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MINIMAL CROSS- OR ALONG-TRACK SPREAD. IN FACT,
- THE SPREAD IS SOMEWHAT REMARKABLE, BEING ON 80NM AT TAU 120 BETWEEN
- ALL DETERMINISTIC CONSENSUS MEMBERS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE (GEFS AND
- ECENS) SHOW MORE SPREAD BETWEEN MEMBERS, BUT THE BULK OF THE
- MEMBERS ARE CONFINED TO A VERY TIGHT ENVELOPE ABOUT THE MEAN. THE
- JTWC FORECAST IS ALIGNED WITH THE CONSENSUS MEAN AND WITH SUCH
- STRONG AGREEMENT, IS SET WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE
- ON THE OTHER HAND IS EXTREMELY UNCERTAIN, WITH A VERY WIDE RANGE OF
- POTENTIAL OUTCOMES. THE HWRF AND COAMPS-TC FOR INSTANCE DROP THE
- SYSTEM TO 50-60 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS BUT REINTENSIFY IT
- THROUGH AFTER. MEANWHILE THE HAFS-A INTENSIFIES THE SYSTEM AFTER
- TAU 12, ALL THE WAY UP TO 130 KNOTS. THE CONSENSUS MEAN IS
- SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE, AND THE JTWC FORECAST CLOSELY TRACKS THE
- CONSENSUS, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT OF THE EXTREMELY LARGE
- SPREAD.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
- TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
- TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
- INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW
- INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
- NNNN
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楼主: qiqi
发表于 2025-2-4 11:52
发表于 2025-2-4 17:23
