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本帖最后由 yhh 于 2025-3-27 17:10 编辑
WTXS31 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 16.8S 100.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 100.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 16.7S 98.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 16.9S 95.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 17.4S 93.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 18.1S 91.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 20.2S 88.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 22.4S 87.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 23.7S 87.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 16.8S 99.5E.
27MAR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
330 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 270600Z IS 973 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
272100Z AND 280900Z.//
NNNN
- WDXS31 PGTW 270900
- MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
- SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY) WARNING
- NR 010//
- RMKS/
- 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
- 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
- SUMMARY:
- INITIAL POSITION: 16.8S 100.0E
- INITIAL INTENSITY: 80 KTS
- GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 330 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS
- ISLANDS
- MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 10 KTS
- SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 33 FEET
- SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
- ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND ENHANCED
- INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT A COMPACT, SLIGHTLY
- ASYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE MASS, WITH EMBEDDED OVERSHOOTING TOPS WITH
- CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS -95C. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
- SHOWS A DIFFUSE UPSHEAR EDGE OF THE CLOUD MASS, SUGGESTIVE OF A
- LOCALIZED REDUCTION IN THE OTHERWISE MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR. AN
- ARC OF CIRRUS MARKS THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW,
- WITH SOME RELATIVELY DRIER AIR TO THE WEST OF THE ARC, AN INDICATOR
- OF A POTENTIAL PERIOD OF ADDITIONAL, POTENTIALLY RAPID,
- INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A LACK OF RECENT
- MICROWAVE IMAGERY PRECLUDES A FULL ANALYSIS OF THE CORE STRUCTURE
- OF THE CYCLONE, BUT 270515Z OSCAT-3 SCATTEROMETER PASS PROVIDED HIGH
- CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
- ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE ALIGNMENT OF THE BULK OF
- THE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES NOTED ABOVE. THE
- ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
- INTENSIFICATION, AND THERE ARE SOME INITIAL SIGNALS OF A POSSIBILITY
- OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI).
- INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SAR AND SCATTEROMETER DATA
- CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
- SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) COMPLEX TO THE SOUTH.
- AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
- PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
- KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
- DEMS: T4.5 - 77 KTS
- APRF: T4.0 - 65 KTS
- CIMSS SATCON: 69 KTS AT 270510Z
- CIMSS ADT: 79 KTS AT 270540Z
- CIMSS AIDT: 78 KTS AT 270540Z
- CIMSS D-PRINT: 54 KTS AT 270630Z
- FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
- VWS: 10-15 KTS
- SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
- OUTFLOW: MODERATE WESTWARD
- OTHER FACTORS: LOCALIZED RADIAL OUTFLOW.
- ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
- INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
- INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
- INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
- 3. FORECAST REASONING.
- SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
- THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
- FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 27S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
- WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A
- STR CURRENTLY CENTERED TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE TC. THE
- STR QUICKLY SLIDES EASTWARD AND WILL BE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST
- OF TC 27S BY TAU 36, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO SLOWLY ARC ONTO A MORE
- SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 72. THE APPROACH OF A DEEP
- UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WEST, WILL ERODE AND PUSH THE STR TO
- THE EAST, ALLOWING TC 27S TO ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AND TURN
- SOUTHWARD AFTER TAU 72. ANOTHER RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES IN FROM THE
- WEST AFTER PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH, AND TC 27S WILL SLOW DOWN
- DRAMATICALLY BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT RUNS INTO THE
- STRONG RIDGING TO THE SOUTH. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, AS OUTLINED
- ABOVE, THERE ARE SIGNALS EMERGING IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OF THE
- ENVIRONMENT SETTING UP FOR A PERIOD OF FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IN
- THE NEAR TERM. THIS IS BORNE OUT BY THE HAFS-A MODEL WHICH SHOWS
- ONSET OF RI BY TAU 12, QUICKLY REACHING A PEAK OF 115 KNOTS. THE
- REMAINDER OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE HOWEVER DOES NOT SUPPORT RI BUT
- DOES SHOW MODEST ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION. THERE IS PLENTY OF
- AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND SSTS REMAIN MODERATELY WARM. AROUND TAU 48,
- THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO BEGIN TO TAP INTO A STRONGER POLEWARD OUTFLOW
- CHANNEL, WHICH SHOULD FUEL ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION THROUGH AT
- LEAST THAT POINT AND POTENTIALLY AS LATE AS TAU 72. HOWEVER, BY TAU
- 72, DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SHARPLY AND DRY
- MID-LEVEL AIR WILL BEGIN TO INTRUDE INTO THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM,
- MARKING THE ONSET OF A STEADY WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER
- OF THE FORECAST.
- MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN MODERATE
- AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72. GFS THE GEFS MEAN TURN THE SYSTEM MORE
- SHARPLY POLEWARD FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST AND MARK THE
- INSIDE OR EASTERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE. THE NAVGEM IS THE WESTERN
- OUTLIER, TAKING THE SYSTEM ON A MORE GRADUAL TURN THROUGH THE
- FORECAST PERIOD. CROSS-TRACK SPREAD BETWEEN THE OUTLIERS IS 220NM
- AT TAU 72, THOUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY PACKED
- (45NM SPREAD) AROUND THE CONSENSUS MEAN. BEYOND TAU 72, THE
- GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SPREAD OUT, WITH THE GFS-GEFS COMBINATION
- OUTPACING ALL OF THE OTHER MEMBERS OF THE CONSENSUS AND TURNING THE
- SYSTEM SOUTHEASTWARD BY TAU 120, SUCH THAT CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OPENS
- UP TO 470NM BY TAU 120. THE GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLES SHOW A SIMILAR
- SPREAD, WITH ROUGHLY EQUAL NUMBERS OF MEMBERS SHOWING A WEST, SOUTH
- AND SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK THOUGH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN TRACKS IN BOTH THE
- ENSEMBLES SHOW A TURN TO THE WEST NEAR TAU 120. THE JTWC TRACK
- STICKS WITHIN THE TIGHTLY GROUPED PACK OF MODELS THROUGH TAU 72,
- THEN MOST CLOSELY TRACKS THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC TRACKER
- THEREAFTER. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS MIXED, WITH THE HAFS-A DEPICTING
- RI TO A PEAK OF 115 KNOTS WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS
- A MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS OR LESS. THE JTWC FORECAST IS ABOUT
- 15 KNOTS LOWER THAN THE HAFS-A BUT ROUGHLY 10 KNOTS HIGHER THAN THE
- SHIPS GUIDANCE AND THE CONSENSUS MEAN. CONFIDENCE IS LOW, AND THE
- POSSIBILITY OF RI CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED, WHICH COULD LEAD TO
- SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER INTENSITY IN THE NEAR-TERM.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
- TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
- TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
- INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW
- INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
- NNNN
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楼主: 1007圆规
发表于 2025-3-27 04:40
发表于 2025-3-27 16:30
